Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the nickel market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors, with a recent increase in London nickel prices driven by a weaker US dollar and supply concerns [2][3] - London nickel futures closed at $18,520 per ton, up $80 from the previous trading day, reflecting a 0.43% increase, while domestic Shanghai nickel futures showed a decline, closing at 143,780 yuan per ton, down 1.34% [1][2] - The LME nickel inventory reported an increase of 132 tons, totaling 286,470 tons, indicating a slight rise in supply [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is cautious, influenced by recent volatility in global markets due to shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations, which have led to widespread asset price fluctuations [2] - The nickel market is characterized by a dual situation of "long-term tight expectations" and "short-term reality of looseness," with consensus on potential long-term reductions in Indonesian nickel production quotas providing price support [2][3] - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly stainless steel and new energy battery materials, has slowed significantly after a period of concentrated inventory buildup, leading to reduced purchasing activity [2][3] Group 3 - The industry is currently in a phase of observation and negotiation, with upstream producers attempting to maintain high prices while downstream acceptance of current price levels has decreased [3] - Major producers are performing steadily, benefiting from previous high prices and capacity releases, but are not aggressively expanding production to influence short-term supply-demand balance [3] - The current market sentiment is cooling, with both volume and price declining, as traders adjust quotes and downstream buyers limit purchases to essential needs [3]

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：刚需采买支撑，盘面宽幅震荡格局 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产，关注库存变动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：会议情绪积极，构筑盘面底部支撑 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 147,470 | 3,100 | 4,970 | 720 | 15,080 | 25,930 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,585 | 120 | -65 | 170 | 1,495 | 1,780 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（ ...

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].

市场对主要供应地区政策变动的交易情绪已渐趋理性，加之当地新增产能的持续释放，共同缓解了供应 侧的紧张预期。与此同时，新能源汽车产业链与不锈钢行业均步入季节性淡季，采购活动以刚性需求为 主，作为关键中间产品的硫酸镍价格连续走弱，也从侧面印证了终端消费动能的不足。在此背景下，前 期累积的多头资金选择获利离场，放大了价格的调整幅度，而产业链各环节的普遍观望态度，使得现货 市场流动性显著下降。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）1月27日伦镍库存报285726吨，较前一交易日库存量增加174吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线高开；主力月2603合约开盘报147200涨770元，9：20分沪镍主力2603 合约报143770跌2660；沪期镍开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，在全球宏观局势错综复杂之 际，镍价迎来显著回调，打破了此前独立于有色板块的上涨走势。本轮下跌由多重因素共振触发：宏观 层面，美元指数创四年新低与美股市场分化，并未能延续对大宗商品的提振，反而因美联储政策不确定 性加剧了资金的风险规避倾向；产业层面，市场对印尼镍矿政策的减产预期有所降温，而下游需求在节 前呈现疲软态势；资金层面，前期累积的涨幅使得镍成为 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the market divergence lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality", with short - term prices being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventories are high, the price may face downward pressure [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, with a 0.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 730,480 (-22,360) lots, and the open interest was 59,283 (-9,313) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation", rising due to the expected supply contraction in Indonesia and the linkage with LME nickel, but then falling under short - selling pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After continuous price increases in previous days, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, with a calmer trading atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment. The mine end maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and there was an expectation that the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) might be further raised due to the rising nickel price [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 157,300 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,517 (450) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,552 (1,824) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are volatile. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,645 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 365,984 (+18,855) lots, and the open interest was 155,289 (-4,171) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, narrow - range decline", rising at the opening due to the cost - side nickel price but lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and light spot trading [3][4]. - **Spot**: Recently, stainless - steel prices have risen, leading to increased downstream price - aversion sentiment. Actual trading was poor. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,550 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was - 140 to - 40 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,050.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. Short - term strategy is range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying with strict stop - loss. Medium - term, pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before deploying single - side positions. The single - side view is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in electrolytic nickel prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and industry dynamics, leading to a significant increase in market activity and sentiment [1][2][3][4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to a five-month low, decreasing by 1.8% over the week, which enhances the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities like nickel [1]. - The price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has risen over 4%, providing strong support for domestic electrolytic nickel prices [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has escalated, disrupting global mineral supply chains and adding upward pressure on nickel prices due to increased risk aversion [2]. - The conflict has led to significant humanitarian crises and concerns over the security of mineral resources, further driving up the resource safety premium in the market [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Indonesia, the largest nickel producer, plans to reduce its nickel production quota for 2026 by 34% to 250 million tons, which is expected to tighten supply [2]. - The demand side is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the stainless steel sector, which accounts for 60%-70% of nickel consumption, and in the emerging sectors like new energy [2]. Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry is experiencing structural profit differentiation, with upstream resource companies benefiting significantly from rising nickel prices, while downstream applications face cost pressures [3]. - Leading companies in the sector are expanding their capacities and enhancing resource control to maintain competitive advantages [3]. Market Activity and Price Forecast - The electrolytic nickel market has seen increased trading activity, with prices reaching between 155,000-157,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a strong sentiment among traders [4]. - Short-term price trends are expected to remain strong due to favorable macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, although potential inventory releases and new production from the Philippines could pose risks [4].

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍横盘后小涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报149880元/吨，盘中最高 报152300元/吨，最低价报145310元/吨，收盘报145380元/吨，上涨360元/吨，涨幅为0.25%，沪镍主力 月2602主力合约成交量718003手。 据长江有色属网统计：1月26日ccmn长江综合1#镍价149850元/吨-158150元/吨，均价报154000元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨4100，长江现货1#镍报149900元/吨-158300元/吨，均价报154100元/吨，较前一日价格 上涨4150元，广东现货镍报157650元/吨-158050元/吨，均价报157850元/吨，较前一日价格上涨4600 元。 本观点仅供参考，不做操盘指引（长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn） ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日镍价强势反弹，是宏观与地缘两大核心力量共振的结果。宏观层面，美 元持续走弱与全球流动性宽松预期共同构筑了金属牛市的基础。美元指数跌破97关口，创下阶段新低， 这不仅降低了以美元计价的镍的全球购买成本，更反映了资金从传统美元资产向大宗商品迁移的"大迁 徙"趋势。与此同时，国内稳增长政策 ...

三、需求支撑与产业洗牌：新能源托底，中国龙头掌控全局 2026年1月26日，长江现货镍价上演"王者归来"，1#镍均价单日飙升4150元/吨至154100元/吨，强势收复 关键关口。这并非偶然反弹，而是一场由 "美元信用危机"与 "印尼资源革命"双核驱动的行情总爆发。 随着全球宏观格局剧变与资源国政策的重磅突袭，镍市场正从产能过剩的泥潭中挣脱，迎来价值与逻辑 的彻底重估。 一、宏观变局：美元溃退与流动性潮汐共振 本次镍价暴涨的根基，在于全球资本流向的深刻逆转。美元指数日内跌破97关口，创下去年9月以来新 低，其背后是市场对美联储降息周期的笃定预期与美国巨额债务压力的双重狙击。美元资产的吸引力下 降，促使国际资本大规模转向大宗商品寻求"价值锚点"。与此同时，国内超长期特别国债资金火速下 达，央行维持流动性宽松，政策层面，新能源汽车购置税减免政策确定延续至2027年底，并辅以"以旧 换新"补贴加码，预计将推动2026年国内新能源车销量突破1200万辆，直接拉动动力电池用镍需求增长 超15%。内外宏观形成了罕见的 "弱美元+宽流动性"共振格局，为包括镍在内的整个有色金属板块提供 了澎湃的估值驱动力和情绪支撑。此外，全 ...