Group 1: Investment Ratings - **Report Industry Investment Ratings**: Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while the economics of conversion may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium salt plant production cuts have not affected the resource end, and the upside remains under pressure [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: The weak pattern persists [2][13] - **Polysilicon**: There is a build - up of warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][13] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,280, with a decrease of 1,950 compared to T - 5. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,870, down 210 from T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel - related products; Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines may ban nickel ore exports [4][5][7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,100, down 4,100 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and various price differentials and raw material prices [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ford allowed Nissan to use part of the capacity of its battery factory; a lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi planned to shut down a plant for maintenance, affecting monthly production by about 1,500 tons [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 7,865, down 625 from T - 5. The PS2507 closing price was 35,860, down 2,560 from T - 5. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: At the 2024 annual general meeting of Tongwei Co., Ltd., the company expressed confidence in the development of the photovoltaic industry [13][15] Trend Intensity - **Nickel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Stainless Steel**: Trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15] - **Polysilicon**: Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15]

2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，逢高布空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单环比增加，关注市场情绪变动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 2）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T- ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Nickel ore contradictions provide a bottom support, while conversion economics may limit the upside valuation [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial drivers for upward movement [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost curve continues to decline, and the trend may remain weak [2][10] - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to upstream supply changes [2][14] - **Polysilicon**: Demand has declined, and the futures price has also maintained a downward trend [2][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamental Data - **Nickel**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closing price was 124,060 yuan, with other indicators showing various changes over different time periods [4] - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel main contract closing price was 12,965 yuan, and trading volume and other indicators also changed [4] 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia increased resource tax rates for nickel products, and the new policy took effect on April 26 [4] - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US [5] - Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage, and a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production [7] - The Philippines is discussing a nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time are uncertain [7] - The US and China reached an agreement on tariff reduction during the Geneva economic and trade talks [8] 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Fundamental Data - The closing prices of 2507 and 2509 contracts decreased, and trading volume and open interest showed different trends [10] - Spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased [11] 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - Sigma Lithium reported good performance in Q1 2025 and is promoting the construction of its No. 2 plant [13] - In April, China's power battery loading volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with different trends for ternary and lithium - iron - phosphate batteries [13] 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13] 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.3.1 Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: Si2507 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume, open interest, and other indicators changed [14] - **Polysilicon**: PS2506 contract closing price decreased, and trading volume and open interest also changed [14] - Inventory, cost, and price data of industrial silicon and polysilicon also showed specific changes [14] 3.3.2 Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Group terminated the tender for a 500MW photovoltaic project component equipment procurement due to large price changes in the photovoltaic component market [14] 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For copper, the inventory depletion rate may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The weekend's Sino-US negotiation rumors may boost market sentiment. For the month spread, the current inter - month positive spread has shown a large space, and subsequent upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. It is recommended to wait and see on the absolute price, take profit on the aluminum internal - external reverse spread, and continue to hold the inter - month positive spread if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price center has moved down slightly in a volatile manner. It is in a situation of strong current reality and weak expectation. It is recommended to short at high prices, continue to hold the internal - external positive spread, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity after mid - May. [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamental situation is weak, and there is still instability in tariffs and continuous disturbances at the mine end. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's tariff policy on China and the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink. [4] - For stainless steel, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and under the influence of tariffs, the steel mill's profit is under pressure. The unilateral price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the reverse spread can be rolled over and continued to be held. [7] - For lead, the lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically. [8] - For tin, in the short term, the domestic raw material supply is still disturbed, and the fundamentals are expected to remain tight in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed from 225 to - 35, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 394, and the Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 20,912. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The demand shows a co - existence of strong current reality and weak expectation. The inventory depletion slope may continue to slow down. [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 195, the domestic alumina price increased by 12, and the spot import profit decreased by 132.42. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the demand expectation in May does not decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium decreased by 120, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 190, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 900. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic TC increased slightly this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly. The demand has limited impetus from the rush - installation stimulus. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from inventory depletion to accumulation is expected to appear in mid - to late May. [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore decreased by 0.5, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,550, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 84. [3] - **Supply and Demand**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, the overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly depleted, and the domestic inventory remains stable. [4] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 50. [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In April, the production increased seasonally, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased after the festival. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot premium remained at - 120, the LME lead inventory decreased by 2,900. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to decrease cyclically in May. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 and 16,900 next week. [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the spot import profit increased by 2,537.61, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15. [8] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side has some changes such as the复产 of African mines, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. The short - term fundamentals are tight, and the medium - long - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. [8] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 260, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 37. [10] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - long term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 8th to May 14th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 100, the主力合约基差 decreased by 1,880, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 272. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term demand enters a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. In the medium - long term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Short after a rebound [1] - Stainless steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish outlook [4] Core Views - **Nickel**: Despite a short - term rebound due to cost - related factors and market sentiment, the fundamental oversupply trend remains unchanged. The support from the mine end is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation in the Philippines after the rainy season and the demand difference between stainless steel and nickel due to US tariff policies [2]. - **Zinc**: The impact of tariffs has temporarily receded. In the short - term, the supply is changing from tight to loose, and in the medium - to long - term, the market remains in an oversupply state, with a bearish outlook [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro & Industry News - **Nickel**: In 2024, GreenMei achieved an operating income of 33.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.19%. The annual output of nickel metal was 51,677 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91%. The company has built a nickel resource production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [1]. - **Zinc**: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) predicts that in 2025, the global refined zinc supply will exceed demand by 93,000 tons. Global refined zinc demand is expected to grow by 1% to 13.64 million tons, and production will grow by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons [4]. Mine End - **Nickel**: Indonesia raised mining royalties on the 26th, and the price of nickel mines at the port of destination in the Philippines rebounded. Although the seasonal loosening of the nickel mine supply has not yet appeared, under normal circumstances, the possibility of the mine end turning loose is still high [1]. - **Zinc**: The profit of mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but the TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the mine end. Meanwhile, imports at the mine end have significantly recovered [4]. Smelting - **Nickel**: China's imports of pure nickel are relatively small, while domestic production has recovered rapidly. The total supply of domestic electrolytic nickel has decreased month - on - month but remains at a historically high level. The production cost of electrowinning nickel has risen to 124,000 yuan per ton [2]. - **Zinc**: The TC price at the smelting end has rebounded to 3,400 - 3,500 yuan per ton. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but with by - product income, the profit has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts is extremely low [5]. Demand - **Nickel**: Stainless steel is not on the US tariff list, so its export demand may increase, which may form a strong - weak relationship with nickel. The relatively high price of nickel - iron has led to low profits for stainless steel manufacturers, which may affect subsequent production and reduce the demand for nickel [2]. - **Zinc**: The "Golden March and Silver April" demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while social inventory has started to accumulate. Galvanizing manufacturers' expectations for terminal demand are pessimistic, and the demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt companies, highlighting their financial performance and market dynamics in 2024 and early 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Financial Performance**: In 2024, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported losses of 7.9 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, primarily due to declining lithium prices. The industry's profitability is increasingly reliant on non-energy metal businesses or hedging strategies [1][2]. - **Market Recovery Signs**: By Q1 2025, there are indications of improvement in energy metal companies' performance, with Tianqi Lithium returning to profitability, suggesting a potential recovery despite ongoing challenges in the lithium market [3]. - **Lithium Market Dynamics**: The lithium market is facing downward pressure, with prices challenging the critical support level of 70,000 yuan. Recent prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have dipped below this threshold, impacting the entire supply chain [4][9]. - **Cost Reduction Limitations**: The industry has exhausted many cost-cutting measures, with limited new strategies emerging. Projects like the lithium sulfate plant in Zimbabwe are being approached cautiously due to low price levels affecting investment decisions [5][8]. - **Nickel Market Outlook**: Nickel companies are expected to see improved performance in Q2 2024, benefiting from rising prices that have not yet fully reflected in stock valuations [6][7]. - **Cobalt Export Regulations**: The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export control policies are under evaluation, with potential extensions of export bans if pricing expectations are not met. This could significantly impact market dynamics and stock prices [12][13][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The DRC's export controls and the exit of major players like Zijin Mining complicate the nickel supply chain, leading to procurement difficulties and increased costs [11]. - **Cobalt Inventory Concerns**: Current cobalt inventories are low, and the market is experiencing operational disruptions due to export bans, which could lead to price surges if supply constraints persist [14][15]. - **Rare Earth Export Restrictions**: New export bans on heavy rare earths are causing significant disruptions in the magnetic materials industry, with potential long-term impacts on production and supply chains [17][19]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Huayou Cobalt, Hanrui Cobalt, and others are expected to benefit from improved performance in the cobalt and nickel sectors, especially if they can effectively hedge against price declines [16][21]. Conclusion - The energy metals sector is navigating a challenging landscape characterized by price volatility, regulatory changes, and supply chain disruptions. However, there are signs of recovery and potential investment opportunities as companies adapt to these challenges and explore new strategies for profitability.

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元，跌幅 0.5%，沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货：铜价震荡下行但仍处高位，下游接货需求有所减弱，成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨，天津报贴水 10 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨，较上周四 下降 5.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 4 月 9 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 继黑色星期一跟随市场跳空大跌之后，8 日沪镍高开高走，继续向 12 万关口 修复，2505 尾盘报收于 119280，微跌 0.01%，指数总持仓减少 5055 至 179362 手。 期价下跌后贸易商被迫提高升水以保障成本，日内金川升水涨至 3500 元/吨，俄 镍升水涨至 250。关税给镍市场带来的主要影响在于全球贸易壁垒加剧之后导致 相关终端产品需求收缩的风险，具体幅度暂难估测，但当前经济前景不确定性以 及避险情绪仍然主导市场，镍价也难言乐观，从基本面上看，产业链估值基本已 在成本线徘徊，尽管纯镍过剩趋势未改，但近期全球库存边际减少，亦能给到一 定支撑，且镍 ...