重要提示：本材料不构成任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩不预示 未来表现。投资须谨慎。 随着4月底临近，上市公司正迎来一季报的密集披露期。通常来讲，一季报作为上市公司每年首份公开 披露的业绩报告，对全年经营具有较强的前瞻性指引作用，因其不仅能够有效反映当下行业和公司的经 营状况，而且也能体现对未来经营的预期。我们以A股和港股总市值超过200亿元的所有上市企业，以 及其它具有行业代表性的公司为样本，梳理卖方分析师的盈利预测后，发现以下三个领域当前展现出了 明显的景气改善迹象： 1 AI产业链代表的科技行业 AI产业链代表的科技行业 数据来源：万得、淡水泉投资，选用数据区间为2024年1月1日至2025年4月18日。 超越经济周期、具有独立成长逻辑的优质公司 在宏观经济仍面临不确定性的大环境下，各行各业开始涌现出越来越多超越经济周期、具备独立成长逻 辑的优质公司。以储能产业链为例，虽然行业仍存在供给过剩的情况，但是部分龙头公司凭借全球化产 能布局在一定程度上规避关税影响，同时依靠先进技术带来的成本优势，海外产能充分受益于海外需求 增长带动的储能订单释放，形成量利 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - The article highlights three sectors showing significant signs of recovery: the AI industry chain, industries benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy, and high-quality companies with independent growth logic [1][4]. Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is experiencing notable growth due to favorable regulatory changes and increased capital expenditure from leading internet companies, with a projected growth of over 50% in capital expenditure by 2025 compared to 2024 [3][4]. - The improvement in AI infrastructure is driving profitability across the entire AI industry chain, including chip design and manufacturing, with new technological breakthroughs expected to contribute significantly to leading companies' performance [3][4]. Group 3: "Old-for-New" Policy Beneficiaries - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeding 50% for seven consecutive months since June [8][9]. - The retail sales growth of home appliances and audio-visual equipment has remained above 20% for four consecutive months since September, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [8]. Group 4: High-Quality Companies with Independent Growth Logic - In a macroeconomic environment filled with uncertainties, a growing number of high-quality companies are emerging that possess independent growth logic, particularly in the energy storage industry, which is benefiting from global demand despite supply surplus [11][13]. - Domestic consumer market changes have created new opportunities for local brands, particularly in cosmetics, pet products, and trendy toys, as these brands effectively address consumer needs and build strong brand identities [11][13].

临近四月季报期，市场风格悄然生变，逐渐回归谨慎叙事。以AI产业链为代表的科技股，虽长期发展逻辑清晰，前景广 阔，但短期却陷入缺乏催化剂的困境。部分科技个股处于高估值区间，且业绩支撑不足，回调压力如高悬之剑，令投资 者心生忧虑。 在这一背景下，市场资金开始寻觅新的投资方向，红利再次进入大众视野。 就拿上周来看，当市场震荡，科技板块大幅回调的背景下，不少红利资产都录得收涨，比如中证红利ETF（515080）。 在能源板块，像中国石油、中国神华等巨头，长期稳定的分红表现有目共睹；金融领域，工商银行、建设银行等国有大 行，凭借庞大的业务规模和稳定的盈利能力，分红持续且丰厚。这些优质企业的汇聚，使得中证红利 ETF（515080）在 市场波动中展现出强大的抗风险能力和收益稳定性。 值得一提的是，3月30日晚间，中证红利 ETF（515080）成份股中国石油披露2024年年报，成绩斐然。按照国际财务报告 会计准则，报告期内公司实现营业收入2.9万亿元，归属于母公司股东净利润1646.8 亿元，同比增长2.0%，再创历史新 高。 从分红数据来看，截至目前，中证红利ETF（515080）已累计分红12次，近期也进行了今年第一 ...