国金证券研报指出，继续对医药板块在2025年走出反转行情抱有强烈信心，创新药主线和左侧板块困境 反转依旧是2025年医药板块的最大投资机会。该行认为，创新药产业向上趋势不变，由于海外MNC重 磅单品陆续迎来专利悬崖，通过BD引进管线弥补收入缺口的战略未来有望持续。过往全球创新药产品 授权合作在下半年更为密集，创新药板块行情静待后续BD持续催化。东吴证券则认为，降息背景下， 创新产业链景气度提升，生科上游、CXO板块有望受益。 消息面上，国家医保局发布第十一批国家组织药品集中采购文件。本次集采方案制定和修改过程中，充 分遵循了"稳临床、保质量、防围标、反内卷"的原则。文件提到，本次集采优化了价差控制"锚点"的选 择，不再简单选用最低报价。国泰海通证券认为，集采规则的优化，反映了医保局正在积极推动医 药"反内卷"，内需市场有望持续改善。 智通财经APP获悉，医药股多数上扬。截至发稿，药明合联(02268)涨6.82%，报75.2港元；诺诚健华 (09969)涨5.72%，报17.38港元；药明生物(02269)涨3.86%，报39.24港元；歌礼制药-B(01672)涨3.09%， 报11.01港元；恒瑞医药(0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The safety incident at Kanglong Chemical, a leading CXO company, highlights significant management and safety protocol failures within the rapidly expanding industry, raising concerns about employee safety amidst growth [1][10][12]. Company Summary - Kanglong Chemical (300759.SZ, 03759.HK) is a major player in the CXO industry, providing comprehensive services from drug discovery to commercial production, with over 20,000 employees [1][10]. - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.276 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, and a net profit of 1.793 billion yuan, up 12.01% [1]. - The company signed new orders that grew over 20% year-on-year, indicating ongoing business expansion [10]. Incident Details - The incident occurred on June 3, when two operators, Guo and Jing, entered a nitrogen-filled flexible isolator without proper safety measures, leading to their suffocation due to lack of oxygen [2][5][6]. - The investigation revealed that the operators violated safety protocols by not using an oxygen detection device before entering the isolator [6][9]. - The accident was classified as a general production safety incident due to non-compliance with operational procedures, resulting in recommendations for fines between 300,000 and 1 million yuan and penalties for 11 responsible personnel [1][10]. Industry Context - The CXO industry is experiencing rapid growth, with global markets for drug discovery CRO, clinical CRO, and CDMO expected to reach 35.9 billion, 81.8 billion, and 157.3 billion USD respectively by 2027, with compound annual growth rates of 14.8%, 8.4%, and 16.0% [11]. - The rapid expansion of the industry has led to increased safety risks, as companies often handle multiple projects simultaneously, which can compromise safety management [11][12]. - Historical data indicates that from 1999 to 2019, 63% of safety incidents in domestic pharmaceutical companies were explosion-related, primarily due to human error and inadequate safety training [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong demand, resulting in sustained high growth in sales of domestic new drugs, with several innovative pharmaceutical companies turning losses into profits and entering a stable growth phase [2]. Pharmaceutical Industry Overview - Innovative Drugs: The industry is witnessing a significant increase in the sales of domestic new drugs driven by strong demand, with several companies achieving profitability [2]. - Medical Devices: The high-value consumables sector is seeing mild price reductions, with ongoing domestic substitution and accelerated overseas business progress. The collection and procurement in neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing, and new products are expected to drive growth [2]. - Blood Products: The market share is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape. Demand is expected to upgrade towards new products, enhancing industry prosperity [3]. - API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients): The end of the capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers, indicates a clear upward turning point for the industry, with leading companies expected to see significant revenue and profit growth [3]. - CXO (Contract Research Organization): The CDMO sector is stabilizing in core business profitability while emerging fields like peptides and ADCs are rapidly growing, enhancing corporate profitability [3]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail: The hospital sector is recovering, while the retail sector is expected to gradually improve in performance as inventory is digested [3]. Research and Development Trends - The domestic innovative drug business development (BD) is heating up, likely boosting downstream demand recovery. Domestic companies are improving their technology, products, and services, establishing brand effects, and benefiting from the ongoing tariff war with the U.S. [4]. - The research service sector is expected to see improved financial indicators for leading companies due to supply-demand improvements and an upward cycle [4]. Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry has published a total of 260 research reports since October 1 of last year, indicating a robust analytical framework and ongoing market engagement [5]. - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, with ongoing upgrades in product offerings and expansion into overseas markets [2][3]. Summary of Reports and Meetings - The company has conducted numerous offline strategy meetings and expert discussions, indicating active engagement with industry stakeholders and investors [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of September 21, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is a significant industry trend, with a notable increase in License-out transactions in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total number for 2024 by over half and increasing transaction amounts by 16% [2] - The report highlights the importance of structural opportunities within the industry, emphasizing the need to select high-quality companies amidst the competitive landscape [2] - The report notes that while the trend of innovative drugs going abroad continues, concerns have arisen due to fewer major transactions and proposed U.S. regulations affecting Chinese drug licensing [2] - The report identifies significant breakthroughs in small nucleic acid drugs, particularly in chronic disease areas such as hypertension, with notable partnerships and potential milestone payments [3] - The report discusses promising clinical data from Chinese ADCs presented at the World Lung Cancer Conference, showcasing competitive advantages in efficacy and safety [4] - The report mentions the advancements in GLP-1 analogs for weight loss, with ongoing developments from both multinational corporations and domestic companies [5] - The CXO sector is expected to gradually recover, driven by an increase in orders and favorable policy changes [6] - The report outlines the completion of expert reviews for the 2025 medical insurance negotiation and commercial insurance innovative drug directories, indicating potential impacts on participating companies [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a recent weekly decline of 2.07% [22] - Over the past month, the industry has lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 7.79 percentage points [23] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry index is 39.77, above the five-year historical average of 31.50 [48] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various recent research outputs, highlighting the ongoing focus on innovative drug development and market opportunities [50] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The report details recent policy updates from the National Medical Insurance Administration regarding drug directory adjustments and the implications for the industry [52][54]

Core Insights - The report indicates a 2.07% week-on-week decline in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index, underperforming both the CSI 300 Index and the ChiNext Index during the week of September 15-19, 2025 [1][12] - The focus for the upcoming 1-2 quarters includes significant global conferences related to innovative drugs and the business development (BD) spending rhythm of multinational corporations (MNCs) [1][18] Recent Market Review - The market experienced fluctuations, with a notable rise in coal, electricity, electronics, and real estate sectors, while the pharmaceutical index showed similar volatility, particularly with a larger adjustment on Thursday and Friday [2][13] - The innovative drug sector is currently in a state of adjustment, reflecting a digestion of trading structures and a lack of short-term catalysts [3][14] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in 2025, driven by innovative drugs, with a focus on overseas major pharmaceuticals, small and medium-sized technology revolutions, and the revaluation of generic pharmaceuticals [4][15] - The report suggests that the innovative drug sector is entering a second wave of growth over the next 5-10 years, with the keyword being "disruption" [3][14] Investment Strategy - The report outlines specific investment strategies in the innovative drug sector, highlighting key companies such as Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and others in various therapeutic areas including oncology and chronic diseases [7][16] - It also identifies emerging technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and AI in medicine as potential investment opportunities [8][16] Upcoming Conferences - Key upcoming global conferences include the ESMO Congress and SABCS, which are expected to influence BD activities and provide insights into the latest advancements in oncology [18][19] Performance Metrics - The report notes that the CSI Innovative Drug Index has increased by 38.55% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming both the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index and the CSI 300 Index [23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The pricing power of innovative drugs is improving, reflecting the global competitiveness of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions due to continued domestic substitution and accelerated overseas business progress [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are experiencing stable growth post-collection, with new products being launched [2]. - The high-value consumables market is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic replacement and the introduction of new products [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is seeing a recovery in bidding prices, with ongoing high-speed growth in bidding data this year [2]. - Companies are entering a phase of inventory reduction, with performance expected to improve in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is experiencing product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is concentrating on central state-owned enterprises, gradually clearing the competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to see continuous upgrades to new products, with industry sentiment gradually improving [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The API sector is benefiting from the end of a capital expenditure peak, with three growth logic points driving upward trends: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies in the API sector are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is witnessing a recovery in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs and ongoing observation of collection progress [2]. - The retail pharmacy sector is influenced by the pace of supply-side clearing and business model upgrades, with expectations of increased store closures in the second half of 2025 [2]. Group 8: Research and Development Services - The domestic innovative drug business development is heating up, likely driving downstream demand recovery [2]. - The overseas market presents significant growth opportunities for domestic companies, leveraging cost-effectiveness and service differentiation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that since September, domestic investors have maintained a stable holding ratio through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors have slightly reduced their holdings in Hong Kong pharmaceutical stocks since mid-year [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Domestic investors have increased their holdings in leading and innovative pharmaceutical companies, while foreign investors have shown increased interest in cost-effective CXO companies [1] - There has been a general rise in the innovative drug sector, suggesting a gradual accumulation during market corrections [1] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Specific recommendations include innovative drug companies such as 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma, which have rich short-term catalysts and valuations that do not yet reflect the core value of major products [1] - Other recommended stocks include Sihuan Pharmaceutical, Hutchison China MediTech, and Legend Biotech, which are considered significantly undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [1] - In the CXO sector, companies like WuXi AppTec are highlighted as benefiting from high downstream demand and marginal improvements in financing conditions [1]

该行提到，特朗普近期声称要加大对引进中国药品的限制，引发市场担忧国产创新药出海前景，但该行 认为实际影响有限，考虑到：1)游说发起者主要是美国生物科技企业及投资者，MNC参与度低，实际 影响力有限;2)MNC对中国医药创新的依赖度提升，行政令推进难度较大。在创新药板块普涨之后，择 时、择股重要性明显提升，该行建议在板块回调时逐步布局，并推荐关注创新药、CXO细分方向。 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，本周(2025/9/9-9/16)恒指涨1.9%，恒生医疗保健指数跌 3.0%，行业指数中排第12位，跑输大市。9月以来，内资通过港股通的持股比例保持稳定，而外资在港 股医药的持仓则从年中开始略有回落，当前内资持续对于创新药企布局，而外资对于板块整体呈现审慎 态度，注重即时盈利能见度。本周，内资增持龙头及创新药企，外资则对于性价比较高的CXO企业有 所增持，对于内资加仓的创新药标的则有所减持。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative drug industry is gradually catching up with Europe and the United States in terms of technology, with some targets and technical pathways already leading globally. The number and value of new drugs authorized for overseas markets continue to increase, leading to world-class pricing and non-linear investment elasticity. The domestic market is experiencing strong growth in demand, with domestic new drug sales continuing to rise, and several innovative pharmaceutical companies have turned losses into profits, entering a stable growth phase [2]. Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector is witnessing a significant increase in sales driven by strong domestic demand, with a number of innovative companies achieving profitability [2]. - The trend of domestic innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, with increasing numbers and values of new drug authorizations [2]. - The industry is positioned for a "Davis double" effect, where both performance and valuation are expected to improve [2]. Group 2: High-Value Medical Consumables - The orthopedic sector is expected to see mild price reductions, while domestic replacements continue to grow, and overseas business progresses rapidly [2]. - The neurosurgery and neurointervention fields are stabilizing after centralized procurement, with new products expected to contribute to growth [2]. Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is experiencing a high-speed growth in bidding data, with companies entering a destocking phase, which is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year [2]. - The low-value consumables sector is seeing continuous product upgrades and accelerated expansion into overseas markets [2]. Group 4: Blood Products - The supply side of the blood products industry is increasingly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, leading to a clearer competitive landscape [2]. - The demand side is expected to upgrade towards new products, gradually improving the industry's overall health [2]. Group 5: API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The industry is at an upward turning point due to the end of a capital expenditure peak, combined with three growth drivers: new high-end market products, integrated consolidation and overseas expansion, and cost-leading CDMO [2]. - Leading companies are expected to see explosive growth in revenue and profits in the medium term [2]. Group 6: CXO (Contract Research Organization) - The CXO sector is seeing a revival in A+H financing activity, with multiple significant business developments enhancing market confidence [2]. - The focus is on optimizing the supply-side landscape and increasing market share for leading CRO companies [2]. Group 7: Traditional Chinese Medicine and Retail Pharmacy - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is showing signs of recovery, with friendly pricing for new drugs, while the retail pharmacy sector is influenced by supply-side adjustments and business model upgrades [2]. - The performance of offline pharmacies is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with leading chains like YaoXingTang making progress in store upgrades [2]. Group 8: Research Reports - A series of in-depth research reports on various companies and sectors within the pharmaceutical and medical device industries have been published, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [3][4].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index slightly declined by 8 points or 0.03%, closing at 438 points on September 16, 2025[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.6%, closing at 6,077 points[1] - Market turnover was recorded at HKD 294.1 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 3.18 billion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] Economic Indicators - Investor sentiment is cautious, awaiting the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting[1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is anticipated to have limited impact on Hong Kong stocks due to already high valuations[2] - Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and real estate, may benefit more directly from monetary policy changes[2] Sector Performance - The automotive parts sector saw a significant rise, with Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) increasing by 12.8%[3] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced minor declines, with a focus on innovative drugs and leading CXO companies[3] - The renewable energy sector showed mixed performance, with solar stocks generally rising, such as Xinyi Solar (968 HK) up by 2.1%[4] Company Insights - Chaoyun Group (6601 HK) reported a 7.2% increase in revenue to RMB 1.34 billion, with pet category revenue doubling to RMB 96 million, a growth of 101.4%[5][6] - The overall gross margin improved by 2.9 percentage points to 49.3%[5] - The company plans to expand its offline pet store count to 200 by 2027 and is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 80%[8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technology leaders and sectors benefiting from industrial upgrades, such as semiconductors and AI, amidst market volatility[9] - The anticipated rate cut by the Fed is expected to attract foreign capital back to Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on sectors showing strong earnings certainty[9]