1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the macro - front, energy infrastructure in the Middle East was attacked, the US February PPI far exceeded expectations, and Powell sent a hawkish signal. The market expects a 50% probability of a rate cut this year [3]. - On the fundamental side, the Philippines enters the rainy season, leading to a decline in nickel ore imports. Indonesia's RKAB plan adjusts the quota, with an increase of about 25% - 30%, which can meet domestic nickel ore demand and ease supply concerns [3]. - At the smelting end, China has large refined nickel production capacity. With recent nickel price fluctuations and profitable production margins, refined nickel output is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, stainless - steel mills' profit has improved, and production has resumed after the holiday. New - energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, with ternary batteries contributing a small demand increase [3]. - Domestically, nickel inventories continue to grow, and spot premiums remain stable; overseas, LME inventories decline slightly, and spot premiums are lowered [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and falling prices, the bullish sentiment weakens. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will be weakly adjusted in the short - term, breaking below the MA60 support, and attention should be paid to the 130,000 level [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 131,550 yuan/ton, down 3,650 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,160 US dollars/ton, down 95 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 186,757 lots, down 11,470 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 50,020 lots, up 14,111 lots; LME nickel inventory is 283,950 tons, up 210 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 63,681 tons (weekly), up 1,912 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 18,744 tons, down 90 tons [3]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 56,899 tons, down 295 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 134,900 yuan/ton, down 3,100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River is 135,000 yuan/ton, down 2,900 yuan [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 210 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main NI contract is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.52 US dollars/ton, up 6.17 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 tons (monthly), down 134.67 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 858.34 tons (weekly), down 65.99 tons [3]. - The average import price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton (monthly), up 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons (monthly), up 1,120 tons; the total ferronickel output is 21,400 tons of metal (monthly), unchanged [3]. - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons (monthly), up 11,020.74 tons; the import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons (monthly), up 100,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8581 million tons (monthly), up 110,900 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 645,600 tons (weekly), down 6,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in China - US relations, and the two sides will continue communication [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one rate cut this year. Powell said no rate cut before inflation improvement and he would not leave the Fed during the investigation. The "New Fed Wire" said the Iran conflict might prolong the Fed's fight against inflation [3]. - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, targeting three Middle Eastern countries. Trump allegedly doesn't want to attack such facilities again for now. Part of Iran's largest gas field was shut down after being attacked, and the US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic macro - level and listed company operating conditions remain stable, providing a long - term positive core for the A - share market, despite the Fed's hawkish turn impacting the global market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - IF main contract (2603) is at 4586.6, down 61.0; IF secondary main contract (2606) is at 4502.2, down 70.0 [2] - IH main contract (2603) is at 2920.2, down 38.2; IH secondary main contract (2606) is at 2893.8, down 47.6 [2] - IC main contract (2603) is at 7886.4, down 191.6; IC secondary main contract (2606) is at 7671.0, down 220.0 [2] - IM main contract (2603) is at 7923.8, down 153.8; IM secondary main contract (2606) is at 7681.0, down 167.8 [2] - Various contract spreads and differences in different quarters also show corresponding changes [2] 3.2 Futures Position Data - IF top 20 net position is 27,014.00, down 860.0; IH top 20 net position is 19,550.00, down 1126.0 [2] - IC top 20 net position is 27,935.00, down 5219.0; IM top 20 net position is 50,830.00, down 4550.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price Data - CSI 300 is at 4583.25, down 75.1; IF main contract basis is 3.4, up 10.3 [2] - SSE 50 is at 2,916.2, down 45.2; IH main contract basis is 4.0, up 6.8 [2] - CSI 500 is at 7,877.1, down 219.3; IC main contract basis is 9.3, up 19.7 [2] - CSI 1000 is at 7,909.2, down 187.4; IM main contract basis is 14.6, up 30.8 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment Data - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 21,272.62, up 662.34; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 26,545.75, up 25.39 [2] - North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2636.57, down 210.08; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) is - 245.0, up 130.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) are - 48.37 and - 1079.04 respectively [2] - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 9.19, down 55.54; Shibor (daily, %) is 1.321, up 0.001 [2] - Various option closing prices and implied volatilities, as well as index volatilities and PCR ratios, show corresponding changes [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The strength of all A - shares is 2.20, down 4.50; the technical aspect is 0.90, down 5.50 [2] - The capital aspect is 3.50, down 3.50 [2] 3.6 Industry News and Views - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75% unchanged, and the dot plot shows a more conservative rate - cut path [2] - The Fed raises inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell makes hawkish remarks [2] - A - share main indexes close sharply lower, with most industry sectors falling, while coal, petroleum & petrochemical, and public utilities sectors rise [2] - In China, economic fundamentals in January - February 2026 show a good start, and financial data and listed company fundamentals also have positive performances [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of stable supply and slightly warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a stage of rising supply and flat demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,180 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,027 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 47 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 292,404 hands, down 14,921 hands; the main contract positions of alumina are 268,233 hands, down 5,701 hands [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 163,575 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 430,237 tons, up 27,469 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,419.5 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 436,625 tons, down 3,700 tons [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum are - 56,702 hands, up 7,453 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.07, down 0.3 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,000 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 50,319 tons, down 1,109 tons [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 416,425 tons, up 21,927 tons [2] - The positions of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy are 5,075 hands, down 192 hands; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,731 tons, down 4,121 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are up 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,490 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 310 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is 132.38 US dollars/ton, up 127 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 347 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.1%, down 0.39 percentage points [2] - Alumina production is 8.0108 million tons, down 127,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of alumina is 83%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 7.3129 million tons, up 253,300 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 289,000 tons, up 23,200 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,300 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; China's export volume of aluminum scrap is 70.8 tons, down 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 150,000 tons, down 40,000 tons; the import volume of alumina is 227,800 tons, down 4,600 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 204,900 tons, up 313,600 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 1.295 million tons, up 33,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.402 million tons, unchanged [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.3 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points [2] - The output of aluminum products is 6.1356 million tons, up 204,600 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 430,000 tons, down 110,000 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 270,800 tons, down 394,100 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 25,500 tons, down 5,100 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 1.26 million tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 1.825 million tons, unchanged [2] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 20 days is 24.33%, up 2.05 percentage points; the historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum for 40 days is 31.86%, up 0.57 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 18.33%, down 0.0439; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0037 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. One member opposes and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, and Fed Chairman Powell denies the US economy is in stagflation [2] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says China and the US will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China [2] - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for 2026, 2027, and 2028, and also raises the GDP growth rate expectations [2] - The US PPI in February rises 0.7% month - on - month and 3.4% year - on - year, exceeding expectations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to short - time enterprise glitches, urea production is expected to continue to decrease. Agricultural demand has gradually weakened, and policies for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices have cooled the market trading sentiment. However, the high - nitrogen fertilizer production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain a stable and slightly increasing trend. The domestic urea enterprise inventory continued to decline this week, the market trading atmosphere is fair, the overall shipment of urea factories is smooth, and some factories have tight supplies. In the short - term, driven by rigid demand and international market sentiment, urea is expected to maintain a balance between production and sales, with tight supplies in some areas affected by maintenance, and the overall inventory may continue to decline. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1840 - 1900 in the short - term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1859 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 228,441 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 583 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,890. The exchange warehouse receipts are 8,499 sheets, with no change [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Henan, it is 1860 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jiangsu, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it is 1880 yuan/ton, with no change; in Anhui, it is 1870 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 21 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 570 US dollars/ton, with no change; the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 645 US dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 18.9 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 tons; the enterprise inventory is 80.89 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 93.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. The daily urea output is 219,700 tons, with no change. The urea export volume is 28 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 32 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,289,610 tons, with an increase of 271,170 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 45.56%, with a week - on - week increase of 8.54%; the melamine operating rate is 53.35%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 286 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 534 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.1799 million tons, with an increase of 184,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, with an increase of 2,500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 18, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 80.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.87 tons, or 15.53%. As of March 19, the inventory of Chinese urea port samples was 16.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2 tons, or 11.64%. As of March 19, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.5194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,200 tons, or 1.18%; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises was 92.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10% [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic textile and apparel exports increased significantly in the first two months of 2026, with textile exports reaching 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and clothing exports reaching 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. The "Golden March" demand in the textile industry started slowly, and spinning mills continued to resume production. The current market is in the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", but the import cotton data from January to February increased significantly year - on - year, and the price continued to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 197,718 lots, an increase of 3,437 lots; main contract positions of cotton were 619,756 lots, a decrease of 33,751 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 12,437 lots, a decrease of 43 lots; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,287 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 499 lots, an increase of 320 lots; main contract positions of cotton yarn were 14,190 lots, an increase of 237 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 282 lots, a decrease of 19 lots; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 22,628 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty) was 14,155 yuan/ton, unchanged; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 23,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton was 170,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the import quantity of cotton yarn was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons; the import cotton profit was 2,567 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days; the monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 200 million meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons; the monthly export amount of clothing and clothing accessories was 134,124,120 US dollars, an increase of 18,187,260 US dollars; the monthly export amount of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 125,796,030 US dollars, an increase of 3,038,700 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 13.22%, a decrease of 5.04%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.22%, a decrease of 5.09%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 16.16%, an increase of 1.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.43%, an increase of 0.34% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 30,000 tons month - on - month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of cotton yarn was 290,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons or 38% compared with the same period last year. The ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by the stronger US dollar. The May ICE cotton futures contract closed down 0.07 cents, or 0.10%, at 68.70 cents per pound [2].

涨氛围浓厚影响，液碱工厂库存环比-6.28%至50.07万吨；国内液氯价格偏弱，山东氯碱利润下降至103元/ 吨。市场对后市氯碱装置检修与氧化铝投产抱有预期，烧碱供需预期偏强。海外部分装置停车，出口利多 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 | | | 烧碱产业日报 2026-03-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2465 | 23 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 200132 | -4781 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | 1985 | -1054 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | 530327 | -72864 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | 2518 | 31 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2465 | 23 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors on March 18, 2026, including changes in trading volume, position - holding amount, and trading - to - position ratios [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - Presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors, including changes in trading volume, position - holding amount, and trading - to - position ratios [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume was 913.486 billion yuan, a change of +0.09% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 1553.182 billion yuan, a change of +0.85% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 58.11% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume was 300.916 billion yuan, a change of +14.62% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 859.182 billion yuan, a change of +0.67% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 33.37% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume of the base metals plate was 522.377 billion yuan, a change of - 0.69% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 641.597 billion yuan, a change of - 0.88% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 96.10%. The trading volume of the precious metals plate was 507.585 billion yuan, a change of - 5.78% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 492.036 billion yuan, a change of - 0.19% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 139.60% [1] V. Energy and Chemical Plate - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume was 1039.325 billion yuan, a change of - 6.97% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 572.461 billion yuan, a change of - 0.61% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 174.84% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume was 408.415 billion yuan, a change of +1.62% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 662.227 billion yuan, a change of - 2.03% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 55.07% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume was 195.406 billion yuan, a change of +22.46% from the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 322.919 billion yuan, a change of +0.41% from the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 57.12% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is warming up, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The financial data has a neutral - to - positive impact on the bond market, but the rising inflation expectations may disturb the short - term sentiment [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 100.18, with a month - on - month increase of 0.61 and a growth rate of 0.61%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.8999, with a month - on - month increase of 0.024 and a growth rate of 0.36%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.29%; DR007 is 1.43, with no change and a decline rate of 0.11%; R007 is 1.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.50, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.47%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change and a decline rate of 0.47% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides figures on the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratio, net positions ratio (top 20), and long - short positions ratio (top 20) of Treasury bond futures main continuous contracts, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [13][19][20]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents figures on the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, Treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local government bond issuance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][26]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows figures on the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [44][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][47]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][62]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [57][60]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and Treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [66][69]. Strategy - Unilateral: The repurchase rate is falling, and the price of Treasury bond futures is oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Brazilian shipping speed has recovered, but the overall port queuing problem remains severe. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil has reached 59%, and the sales progress is nearly 50%. Overnight, the Brazilian premium rose significantly. The resumption of shipping has partially alleviated concerns about domestic arrivals, but the market still has concerns about the supply - demand gap. Today, the spot basis of soybean meal remains relatively strong. In the later stage, if the war continues, inflation expectations and cost - increase expectations will support soybean meal prices. Currently, soybean meal prices are still in the historical low - range and are still highly sensitive to positive news. The medium - to - long - term upward drive still needs to focus on the weather during the planting period. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to layout long positions in distant contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The table shows the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal on March 18, including the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions (Dalian, Rizhao, Tianjin, etc.) and the basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong. It also includes data such as M5 - M9, M5 - RM5, and RM5 - 9 [4]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented, including the spot spread in Guangdong and the spread of the main contract. It also shows the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend chart, the import soybean gross profit on the disk, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major oil mills across the country, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises from 2020 - 2026 [5][6]. 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The data of the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills across the country from 2020 - 2026 are presented, as well as the downstream trading volume and receiving volume [6].