国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 13 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪利好推升盘面，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 | 19 | | 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 | 19 | | 铁矿石：区间震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：事件扰动，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 28 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - **Spot Price**: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - **News**: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - **News**: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - **News**: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Price, Volume and Position**: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-12 淡季⽭盾积累，盘⾯表现承压 钢材节前需求回落，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现疲软。钢⼚复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯⽀撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 钢材节前需求回落，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现疲软。钢厂复产节奏 偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面低位震荡。冬储临近尾声，煤 焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面支撑有限。玻璃供应端存在扰动，但玻纯 供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿石库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，当前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开 重要会议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场 情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾 声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤 ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】涨价开始向下游传导——2026 年 1 月价格数据点评 1 月受春节错月、鲜菜价格超季节性下跌影响，CPI 同比涨幅明显回落，但上行趋势 依然延续。一是，原材料涨价对下游耐用消费品传导持续；二是，中央一号文件指出 "强化生猪产能综合调控"，或加快生猪去产能进程，预计下半年猪价有望温和改善。 PPI 方面，环比涨幅明显加快，涨价领域进一步扩散，与输入性影响扩大以及国内"反 内卷"政策深化有关，预计二季度 PPI 同比有望回正。 【宏观】如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告 学习体会 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化，对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率，可能顺应推出 相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对货币政策调节的影响； 重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩 擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。风险提示：货币宽松力度不及预期，财政 政策落地进度不及预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The securities market has shown significant structural trends since the beginning of the year, with increasing attention on the economic and industrial development outlook for 2026 and investment opportunities [1][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to remain proactive, with growth-stabilizing policies likely to continue, and monetary policy is expected to maintain a steady and loose stance [1][7]. - Despite frequent market concerns regarding the macroeconomic fundamentals, there is a belief in the need for confidence and determination to adapt to potential changes and actively seek allocation opportunities across various industries [1][7]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The company continues to favor growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices, defense and military industry, and humanoid robots, while also looking at cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, steel, and securities for potential returns driven by macroeconomic fluctuations [1][7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company increased its overall equity position based on a high position from the third quarter, maintaining holdings in sectors like robotics, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and finance, while also adding to other cyclical industries [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a weak expectation in the steel market, with low volatility in futures steel prices [14][19] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [4][15] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5% [4][15] Group 2 - As of February 11, 2026, only two steel mills have introduced winter storage discount policies, targeting internal agreement clients and nearby strategic customers [4][15] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 79.53%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week [4][15] - The average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,296 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton from the previous day, with an average loss of 52 yuan/ton [5][16] Group 3 - Last week, rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The five major steel products' total supply was 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory rose by 592,400 tons [5][16] Group 4 - The strategy for rebar futures is bearish in the short term, with support observed around 3,050 [8][19] - The strategy for hot-rolled futures is also bearish in the short term, with support around 3,200 [8][19] - The alloy prices are under pressure, with silicon iron supply remaining low and manganese prices at a high level [9][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **For螺纹、热卷**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, with low output and demand. Inventory is expected to increase rapidly from a low level, and the market's demand expectation for next year is relatively weak. The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range, showing a downward trend. However, due to the low current valuation, the downside space is limited [2]. - **For铁矿石**: The market is still in the off - season, and the iron - making water production is likely to decline along the seasonal trend. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses more on the spring consumption demand. The global shipment has rebounded from a low level, but is expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price is under pressure to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. 螺纹、热卷** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The total production of the five major varieties decreased slightly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand declined month - on - month [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has fallen below the recent trading range and is approaching the previous low, with potential support. But it is considered to be in a downward trend without a reversal signal [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2]. **II. 铁矿石** - **Demand**: The production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills decreased slightly last week, the apparent demand declined month - on - month, and the total inventory continued to rise. The iron - making water production is likely to decline seasonally. The steel and iron - making water production is at a seasonal low, and the steel mill restocking is nearly over. The market focuses on spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have rebounded from a low level but are expected to remain low in the short term due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is under pressure to decline, and on the daily K - line, the price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, potentially forming a downward effective breakout [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions with a light position [4]. **III. Industry News** - As of the week ending February 11, according to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of key steel products in China decreased by 429,100 tons compared with the previous week, the factory inventory increased by 266,200 tons, the social inventory increased by 533,100 tons, the total inventory increased by 799,300 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 635,300 tons [6]. - On February 11, Mongolia's ETT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal was $89.6 per ton, and all 64,000 tons were sold at a price of $95.1 per ton (ex - tax) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The green and low-carbon development is essential for traditional industries like steel to achieve high-quality growth, and it is a key component in Shandong's initiative to become a leading area for green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [1] Group 1: Green Transformation Initiatives - Shandong has been actively promoting the third round of the "Four Reductions and Four Increases" action plan, focusing on key areas such as industry and energy to systematically advance green and low-carbon transformation [1] - The province has made significant progress in optimizing the steel industry layout by establishing a comprehensive ecological environment zoning control system, encouraging the concentration of petrochemical and steel industries along the coast [1] Group 2: Industry Capacity and Development - As of now, over 53% of Shandong's crude steel production capacity is located along the coast, with advanced capacity in key industries exceeding 40% [1] - The State Council has issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan," prompting Shandong to accelerate the formulation of detailed implementation plans and to prepare the "14th Five-Year" plan for solid waste pollution prevention and control [1] Group 3: Solid Waste Management - Shandong aims to enhance technological research and development to promote the green transformation of industries such as chemical and metal smelting, focusing on the recycling and utilization of large quantities of industrial solid waste like red mud and fly ash [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Supporting the Transformation and Upgrading of Advanced Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai (2026-2028)" aims to accelerate the establishment of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, promoting green and digital transformation across enterprises of all sizes [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan includes four major actions and 17 measures to enhance the development of advanced manufacturing in Shanghai [1]. - By 2028, Shanghai aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan and increase the number of industrial enterprises above designated size by 500 [1]. Group 2: Development Paths - The plan outlines three development paths: - For traditional advantageous industries, it emphasizes "optimization and enhancement" [1]. - For leading industries, it promotes "strategic guidance" [1]. - For key and emerging industries, it focuses on "expansion and development" [1]. Group 3: Innovation and Support Measures - The action plan supports enterprises in high-level R&D and high-value product transformation, addressing industry pain points and overcoming key core technologies [2]. - Financial support includes one-time subsidies for R&D investments, with amounts varying based on the level of investment [2]. Group 4: Financial Incentives - Companies investing in technology transformation projects can receive interest subsidies on loans or equipment financing leases, with a maximum subsidy of 20 million yuan [3]. - Additional rewards are available for energy-saving upgrades and for companies recognized as national green factories [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant improvements in air quality in Shandong province, attributed to concerted efforts in pollution control and environmental management, leading to a tangible sense of well-being among residents [1][4]. Group 1: Pollution Control Strategies - The province has adopted source reduction as a fundamental strategy, focusing on structural pollution issues and promoting a green and low-carbon transformation of the economy [2]. - Actions include the reduction of excess capacities in steel, coking, and local refining industries, with a complete exit of long-process steel production in major pollution transmission cities [2]. - Non-fossil energy generation capacity has surpassed 100 million kilowatts in coastal provinces, marking a historic shift where non-fossil energy exceeds coal power [2]. Group 2: Engineering and Management Measures - Industrial enterprises are prioritized in pollution prevention, with stringent oversight and accountability measures in place [2][3]. - The province has implemented ultra-low emission transformations in key industries, with all 12 long-process steel enterprises achieving ultra-low emissions [2]. - A comprehensive air quality monitoring network has been established, enabling real-time supervision and management of pollution sources [3]. Group 3: Weather and Emergency Response - The province employs differentiated and precise management of heavy pollution weather, revising emergency plans to ensure effective and legally compliant responses [3]. - The focus is on proactive measures to enhance environmental performance in key industries, with a target of adding 159 new high-performance enterprises by 2025 [3]. Group 4: Achievements and Future Goals - By 2025, all major air quality indicators in the province are expected to reach their best levels since monitoring began, with a significant increase in the number of good air quality days [4]. - PM2.5 concentration has dropped to 32.4 micrograms per cubic meter, achieving a historic breakthrough in air quality standards [4]. - Despite notable achievements, the province acknowledges the need for continued efforts to solidify these gains and address ongoing challenges in air quality management [4].