Group 1 - The year 2026 is identified as a critical year for systematic green development in China, focusing on the integration of green principles into energy, manufacturing, consumption, and finance sectors [2][8] - The transition from energy consumption control to carbon emission control will be fully implemented, establishing carbon emission intensity as a core evaluation metric [3][11] - The construction of a new power system and the promotion of green hydrogen as a key decarbonization pathway are highlighted as major trends in energy innovation [3][20] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is moving from conceptual guidance to practical implementation of green transformation, with zero-carbon parks and factories becoming pilot units for achieving carbon peak [4][23] - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to stabilize, with a focus on covering key industrial emission sectors during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][32] - The manufacturing industry is encouraged to adopt carbon intensity indicators as core management requirements to accelerate the elimination of high-energy and outdated capacities [4][35] Group 3 - Green consumption is seen as a necessary focus area, with potential for significant growth in sectors such as agricultural products, home appliances, and automobiles [5][39] - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate green consumption, aligning with the broader goal of expanding domestic demand while achieving sustainability [5][41] - The automotive sector, particularly electric vehicles, is projected to maintain stable growth supported by "trade-in" subsidies [5][43] Group 4 - The development of green finance in China has progressed significantly over the past decade, with green credit leading the way in terms of scale [6][51] - The green finance structure is expected to shift towards direct financing, with an increase in the share of direct financing-related green financial products [6][60] - The current green finance development reflects a potential imbalance with the green industry economy, indicating that green finance may not fully leverage its potential [6][58]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **螺纹**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **热卷**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **铁矿**: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **焦炭**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **焦煤**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **硅锰**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **硅铁**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a shrinking and volatile pattern, with the overall weak domestic demand and high steel exports. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, with an improved demand but a strong expectation of supply surplus. The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the overall market sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and may rise. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are likely to be strongly volatile, affected by international conflicts and policy expectations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market fluctuates. The apparent demand for rebar continues to recover slowly, production increases, and inventory accumulates. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, and inventory accumulates with greater pressure. The iron - water production has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the recovery may be slow due to poor steel mill profits and production - restriction expectations during the conference. The domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is cautious, and the market continues to shrink and fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rises. The global shipment volume is high, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The terminal demand has improved marginally, but the expectation of supply surplus is still strong. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost. The market is expected to be volatile, and policy signals around the important conference should be noted [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuates. The first - round price cut has basically been implemented. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production is at a low level. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the market expects "anti - involution" policies. The price may rise driven by coking coal, and geopolitical conflicts should be noted [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuates. Geopolitical conflicts may cause concerns about the coal - chemical industry. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 1492 vehicles. The terminal inventory has significantly decreased and may need to be replenished after the Spring Festival. The total coking coal inventory has decreased significantly. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market expects "anti - involution" policies. The price has changed from a weak state, and geopolitical conflict news should be noted [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuates. International conflicts are beneficial to the cost of silicon manganese by affecting the manganese ore shipping cost. The spot manganese ore price has slightly increased, and the port inventory is increasing. The iron - water production is slowly increasing, and the weekly production of silicon manganese slightly increases. The inventory slightly increases. The market has strong expectations for the next - month's conference policy, and international conflict news should be noted. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuates. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the semi - coke price has slightly decreased. The main production areas are still in a loss state. The iron - water production is at a low level, and the export demand is over 30,000 tons. The metal magnesium production is increasing, and the demand has resilience. The supply changes little, and the inventory slightly decreases. The market has strong expectations for the next - month's conference policy, and international conflict news should be noted. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating and Weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the hot - rolled coil futures decreased in positions and oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue this trend in the short term. The short - term support is near the previous low, and the medium - term pressure is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. However, the improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Future focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side production [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Thursday was 389,600 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 5,552 lots. The short - term average line fell below the 5 - day moving average of around 3,214, and the medium - term pressure of the 30 - day moving average at 3,256 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,269 still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 301.11 million tons, a decrease of 8.50 million tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous period, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 281.57 million tons, an increase of 13.20 million tons (+4.92%) compared to the previous period, showing a steady recovery in consumption [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous period, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.70 million tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous period, indicating inventory depletion in mills. The total inventory was 471.69 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous period, showing that the overall inventory was still increasing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, strengthening infrastructure and "two new" project support, and boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish factors: slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, steel prices declined slightly, with rebar performing stronger than hot-rolled coils. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, with weak rigid demand and stable spot prices. This week, the data from Steel Union showed a slight increase in the production of the five major steel products, with an increase in rebar production and a shift to increased production of hot-rolled coils. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventories are still accumulating rapidly, with rebar inventory accumulating faster and shifting from mill inventory to social inventory. This week, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, and the capital availability of housing construction projects is better than that of non-real estate projects. The "Two Sessions" released this year's economic growth target, with the GDP growth rate lower than last year, and the other targets remaining the same as in 2025. Since capital expenditure in the first quarter may fall short of expectations, the demand recovery situation remains to be seen. The pessimistic expectations of steel mills may also limit the height of pig iron production this year, putting pressure on raw materials. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the prices of black metals. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. However, after the Two Sessions, steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and there is still pressure on steel prices. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the pig iron production situation, downstream demand performance, overseas geopolitical frictions, and the results of the Two Sessions [6]. - Unilateral trading: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 4 yuan/ton, 4 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC05 - RB05 decreasing by 7 yuan/ton, and RB01 - RB05 decreasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 65 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 36 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of 8 yuan/ton. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.1.2 Hot-rolled Coils - **Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts decreased by 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 decreasing by 2 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 increasing by 3 yuan/ton. The disk profits of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 17 yuan/ton, 7 yuan/ton, and 13 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions were stable or slightly increased. The basis of different contracts in different regions also varied, with the cheapest delivery product having a 05 basis of 21 yuan/ton, a 10 basis of 0 yuan/ton, and a 01 basis of -18 yuan/ton. The regional price differences changed to some extent, and the spot profits in different regions decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3160 yuan, that of Beijing Jingye rebar was 3100 yuan, that of Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3240 yuan, and that of Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3140 yuan [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information**: In 2026, China plans to set the deficit ratio at around 4%, the target for the increase in the consumer price index at around 2%, issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, 300 billion yuan of special treasury bonds, and 4.4 trillion yuan of local special bonds. The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5 - 5%. The government work report emphasizes strengthening anti-monopoly and anti-unfair competition, and regulating "involutionary" competition [8][9]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends, basis, spreads, and disk profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils, as well as the cash profits of different steel products and the cost of electric furnaces in different regions [10][13][15][17][21][24][27][30][32][33][35][36][38][40][42][46][48][50][52][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, with a daily increase of 0.10%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. At present, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are recovering, and industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating. The weak fundamentals continue to put pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decrease of 0.19%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. Currently, under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand toughness is weakening. Under the situation of both supply and demand decline, the contradictions of hot-rolled coil continue to accumulate, and the price continues to be under pressure. Under the dominance of the weak reality logic, it is expected that hot-rolled coil will still maintain an oscillating bottom-finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.27%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in positions. At present, the demand for iron ore has improved marginally, providing support for ore prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Moreover, the supply has rebounded again, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The expected economic growth target for 2026 is 4.5% - 5%. The government work report states that the main expected development targets for 2026 are: economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, striving for better results in actual work; the urban surveyed unemployment rate is about 5.5%, and more than 12 million new urban jobs will be created; the consumer price increase is about 2%; the growth of residents' income is in sync with economic growth; the balance of international payments is basically balanced; the grain output is about 1.4 trillion catties; and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by about 3.8% [7]. - The deficit ratio in 2026 is proposed to be arranged at about 4%, and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued. The government work report mentioned that when continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, this year's deficit ratio is proposed to be arranged at about 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan compared with the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan compared with the previous year. It is proposed to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan to continuously support the construction of "two important" projects and the work of "two new" initiatives [8]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in January 2026, the total energy consumption of member enterprises decreased by 4.28% year-on-year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 0.94% year-on-year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 0.91% year-on-year; the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 5.11% year-on-year. The total power consumption of member enterprises increased by 2.89% year-on-year. The self-generated power increased by 5.79% year-on-year; the self-generated power ratio was 60.06%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year. The clean energy power generation increased by 58.74% year-on-year. Among them, the wind power generation increased by 651.26% year-on-year; the photovoltaic power generation increased by 53.10% year-on-year. The water consumption of member enterprises increased by 222.8679 million cubic meters year-on-year, an increase of 2.93%. Among them, the water intake increased by 6.2185 million cubic meters compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 5.32%; the reuse volume increased by 216.6493 million cubic meters compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 2.89%. The water reuse rate was 98.43%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year; the water intake per ton of steel was 2.41 cubic meters per ton, an increase of 9.37% year-on-year [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,301 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,230 yuan, 3,140 yuan, and 3,266 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) is 2,910 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) is 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,000 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder (Shandong port) is 752 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) is 757 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia is 11.40 yuan, the ocean freight from Brazil is 25.66 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) is 99.60 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) is 100.20 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract is 3,071 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a maximum price of 3,085 yuan, a minimum price of 3,061 yuan, a trading volume of 710,699 lots, a volume difference of -77,573 lots, an open interest of 1,839,511 lots, and an open interest difference of -42,377 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil active contract is 3,212 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a maximum price of 3,229 yuan, a minimum price of 3,207 yuan, a trading volume of 280,903 lots, a volume difference of -88,862 lots, an open interest of 1,435,635 lots, and an open interest difference of -16,252 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract is 752.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.40%, a maximum price of 753.0 yuan, a minimum price of 745.0 yuan, a trading volume of 230,305 lots, a volume difference of -9,253 lots, an open interest of 525,573 lots, and an open interest difference of -7,288 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 94 independent electric furnace steel mills' operating rate, and 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profitability) [16][24][32] 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides are recovering. The resumption of production of short-process steel mills has led to an increase in output, with the weekly output of rebar increasing by 82,100 tons month-on-month, and there is still room for growth. Coupled with the relatively high inventory level, the supply pressure has increased. At the same time, the demand for rebar has recovered as expected, with both the weekly apparent demand and high-frequency transactions increasing, but they are still at a relatively low level. Moreover, the policy end has not exceeded expectations, and the downstream industries continue to operate weakly and stably. The marginal improvement of rebar demand is limited in terms of incremental space. In short, both the supply and demand sides of rebar are recovering, and industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating. The weak fundamentals continue to put pressure on steel prices. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For hot-rolled coil, both the supply and demand sides have weakened. The production of plate steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil has decreased by 85,000 tons month-on-month, reaching a high and then falling back. However, the inventory has continued to rise at a high level, and the supply pressure has been alleviated to a limited extent, which continues to suppress the steel price trend. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 97,400 tons month-on-month, significantly lower than the same period level. Moreover, the contradictions in the downstream cold-rolled market have not been resolved, and the steel export demand has been disturbed by the Middle East conflict. The demand toughness of hot-rolled coil will weaken. Currently, under the high inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coil has not subsided, while the demand toughness is weakening. Under the situation of both supply and demand decline, the contradictions of hot-rolled coil continue to accumulate, and the price continues to be under pressure. Under the dominance of the weak reality logic, it is expected that hot-rolled coil will still maintain an oscillating bottom-finding trend, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [40]. - For iron ore, the supply and demand pattern has changed. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to recover. The average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased again last week, and steel mills may replenish their inventories after the Spring Festival, so the short-term demand for iron ore has improved. However, the industrial contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the incremental space is limited, so the positive effect remains to be observed. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports continues to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners remain at a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. Coupled with the recovery of domestic ore supply, the supply of iron ore is increasing. Currently, the demand for iron ore has improved marginally, providing support for ore prices, but the sustainability is questionable. Moreover, the supply has rebounded again, and the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved. The upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production situation [41].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical risks, market structure differentiation, and capital competition, transitioning from an index-driven market to a structure-driven market focused on earnings and capital [1] - The upcoming "Two Sessions" is expected to create a favorable policy environment, while the RMB remains strong, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese equity assets [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors with short-term certainty such as oil and gas, petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals, as well as in industries with improving supply-demand dynamics like basic chemicals, steel, construction materials, and finance [1] Group 2 - The global supply of vitamins A, E, and methionine is under pressure due to a drone attack on Qatar's energy facilities, which has significant implications for the European chemical industry [2][3] - Current prices for methionine and vitamins are at historically low levels, with methionine prices at 2.7% and vitamin E prices at 10.4% of their historical percentiles [2] - The decline in industry inventory since January indicates a transition from price bottoming to profit recovery, with key price increases noted for various products in February [3]

Macro Economic Background - Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival showed strong performance, with a 6.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the holiday period from February 7 to February 26, 2026 [11] - Retail and catering enterprises reported a daily sales increase of 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days of the holiday, with significant growth in smart wearable devices and duty-free sales in Hainan [11] - Real estate sales improved, with a 25.5% year-on-year increase in average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities during the Spring Festival [11] - The box office revenue for the Spring Festival period decreased by 40% year-on-year, indicating a decline in movie-going enthusiasm [11] A-Share Market - In February, the A-share market experienced a high-level consolidation with a focus on small-cap and dividend stocks [8] - The market is expected to shift from a valuation expansion phase to a performance-driven phase as the "Two Sessions" policy discussions unfold [3] - The market is likely to focus on policy expectations and external geopolitical risks in March, with a potential rebound in economic data following the Spring Festival [3] Fixed Income Market - In February, bond market yields trended downward, with a focus on structural opportunities as the 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain above 1.80% [8] - The bond market may face profit-taking pressure, and investors are advised to look for specific opportunities [3] Currency Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate weakly, with increased volatility anticipated [8] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, although geopolitical uncertainties may lead to increased volatility [3] Overseas Markets - The US stock market is projected to exhibit a fluctuating pattern, with attention on the evolution of AI narratives [8] - The bond yields in the US are expected to have limited downward space in the short term, influenced by changes in risk aversion sentiment [3] - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to remain under pressure from external sentiments, with a significant pullback in the Hang Seng Technology Index [3] Commodities - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may drive oil prices up in the short term, but there is a risk of a significant price drop if conflicts do not persist [4] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical risks, with a long-term upward trend anticipated [4] - Copper prices are expected to rise as macroeconomic fundamentals improve [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts (especially the US - Iran conflict), supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and macro - economic data to provide insights and trading suggestions for each market [2][6][15]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Aluminum**: Affected by the supply crisis in the Middle East, the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term market is cautious due to macro - situation uncertainties, but the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term operating range of the main contract is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [2][23]. - **Styrene**: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [3][105]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [4][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [5][74]. Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Geopolitical risks are complex and changeable, and the stock index is slowly building a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see and keep a low position [6][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The US economy has slightly improved. Officials' statements have stabilized oil prices and supported interest rate cuts. The US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have stopped falling and rebounded slightly. Gold may fluctuate around historical highs, and silver and platinum - palladium have their own characteristics in terms of supply - demand and price trends [10][13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, and the market risk preference is under pressure. In the long term, the copper price is still optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot basis has recovered, and the futures price is under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The supply crisis in the Middle East has spread, and the internal - external positive spread has widened. The short - term is cautious, and the long - term is bullish. It is recommended to go long on pull - backs [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures and spot prices have risen together, and the short - term market trading is cold. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to go long on pull - backs [24][27]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory accumulation trend continues, and the zinc price fluctuates narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices in the long term [28][30]. - **Tin**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the tin price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long after the sentiment stabilizes [31][34]. - **Nickel**: The war situation continues, and the macro - uncertainty increases. The price fluctuates strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and it is recommended to operate within the range [34][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is uncertainty in the policy window, and there is a game between raw materials and demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is uncertainty in the macro and supply sides, and the futures price adjusts widely. It is not recommended to open new long positions, and use options to protect existing long positions [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price fluctuates downward. It is recommended to wait and see [45][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to environmental inspections in Xinjiang, the futures price has risen. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at around 8,200 yuan/ton and pay attention to position reduction or liquidation [48][49]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates, waiting for the verification of post - holiday demand. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on steel exports and the "Two Sessions" on demand expectations [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance intensifies, and the supply pressure still exists. The short - term price may fluctuate widely, and the reference range is 730 - 770 [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is weak, and the power coal price has peaked and fallen. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,200 [55][57]. - **Coke**: The steel mills have proposed to lower the coke price, and the futures price fluctuates with coking coal. It is recommended to view it with a shock perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1,600 - 1,800 [58][59]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and pay attention to silicon ferrosilicon exports. The short - term price may fluctuate strongly, and there is pressure when the price rebounds to the FOB export cost [60][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese ore price continues to rise. Pay attention to the resumption of manganese silicon production. It is recommended to try short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic and foreign markets are in a high - level shock, and the domestic soybean meal basis has fallen. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [67][69]. - **Hogs**: The hog slaughter pressure is large. Pay attention to the performance of secondary fattening. The short - term price may be weak, and the upward space is limited [70][71]. - **Corn**: The spot price is firm, and the price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to the change in grain - selling enthusiasm with rising temperatures and the release of policy grain sources [72][74]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic spot price is stable and weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [75]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price continues to fluctuate, and the adjustment range of the futures price may be limited. Pay attention to downstream orders and weather conditions [77]. - **Eggs**: The market sales are slow, and the egg price is mainly falling. The short - term price is expected to be weak and fluctuate [80][81]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats show a stagnant and adjusted trend. Different oils have different supply - demand and price trends, and pay attention to relevant factors such as production, inventory, and demand [82][86]. - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the futures price is under pressure. It is recommended to operate in a light - position band and control risks [88][89]. - **Apples**: The price of high - quality apples is firm, and the futures price is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory reduction, spot price, and delivery goods [90][91]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical conflict continues. Pay close attention to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the safety of energy facilities in the Middle East. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the oil price may rise; if it resumes passage, the oil price may fall. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [92][93]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the oil price is strong. The short - term PX trend is strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [94][95]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand drive is limited, but the cost side is strong. The short - term PTA is driven by the cost. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw materials. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy and pay attention to the low - level expansion of the processing fee [98]. - **Bottle Chips**: The raw materials are expected to be strong in the short term, and the supply of bottle chips is expected to increase. The processing fee may fall. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy, pay attention to the high - level narrowing of the processing fee, and buy call options at low prices [99][100]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand in March is expected to improve, and the cost support is enhanced. It is recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low prices [101]. - **Pure Benzene**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the cost side drives the pure benzene to be strong. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and go long in a rolling manner, and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [102][103]. - **Styrene**: Driven by geopolitical factors and cost, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream开工 and the dynamics of Iranian styrene plants. Strategies include being cautious about the risk of a pull - back after a rise and narrowing the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream sells at a loss, and the market trading is weak. The short - term market is strong under cost support and demand recovery expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [106]. - **PP**: The valuation is low, and the price rises strongly. Pay attention to the sustainability of cost support. It is recommended to take profits on the PL spread [107][108]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical risk still exists, and the methanol price fluctuates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the caustic soda price may be adjusted weakly. Pay attention to downstream delivery volume and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [109][110]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances bring cost concerns, and the PVC price fluctuates emotionally. The supply - demand is deadlocked, and the price may be pushed up passively [111][112]. - **Urea**: The demand side improves marginally, and the urea price runs firmly. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions at low prices and follow the crude - oil - related varieties with a low - long idea [113][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The macro - situation boosts sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [115][117]. - **Glass**: The downstream resumption of work is less than expected. Pay attention to macro - policies and inventory changes. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [115][119]. - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas geopolitical situation affects tire demand, and the rubber price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [119][122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The fundamental support is limited, but the geopolitical conflict will drive the BR to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and the short - term view is a wide - range shock [123][124][125]. Container Shipping to Europe - The MSK has opened a position at 2,200 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase compared to the previous period). Pay attention to the actual implementation of the price increase in the off - season. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and run in an enlarged range. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [125][126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market has a slow start with price stability, and the profit of steel mills exists, but the actual resumption of production may be slow. It is not recommended to take unilateral or trend opportunities, and a cash-and-carry position can be operated based on the basis [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the price rebounds due to supply disturbances and cost increases, but the fundamentals are weak with high inventory and strong resistance to price increases. It is not recommended to chase long positions [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the first round of coke price cuts has begun, and the supply recovers faster than demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral positions and establish cash-and-carry positions on the 05 contract [5]. - For iron ore, the impact of the geopolitical conflict is mainly on market sentiment. It is not recommended to short at low prices, and medium - and long - term investors can enter short positions at pressure levels [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On March 4, the closing prices of far - month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, JM2609 were 3100.00, 3232.00, 731.50, 1748.00, 1198.50 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 2.00, 0.00, 1.50, 11.00, 0.00 and changes in percentage of - 0.06%, 0.00%, 0.21%, 0.63%, 0.00% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts for RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, JM2605 on March 4 were 3071.00, 3212.00, 752.00, 1672.00, 1097.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 4.00, 0.00, 3.00, 11.00, - 2.50 and changes in percentage of 0.13%, 0.00%, 0.40%, 0.66%, - 0.23% [1]. - The cross - month spreads on March 4 for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, JM2605 - 2609 were - 29.00, - 20.00, 20.50, - 76.00, - 101.50 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.00, - 1.00, 0.00, 0.00, - 6.50 [1]. - The spreads, ratios and profits on March 4 for roll - screw spread, screw - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, screw disk profit, coking disk profit were 141.00, 4.08, 1.52, - 63.55, 212.99 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 4.00, 0.00, 0.02, 10.48, 17.90 [1]. Spot Market - On March 4, the spot prices of Shanghai screw, Tianjin screw, Guangzhou screw, Tangshan billet, and Platts Index were 3170.00, 3110.00, 3390.00, 2910.00, 100.20 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00, 0.00, - 10.00, 0.00, - 0.35 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - material spread, Rizhao Port: PB on March 4 were 3210.00, 3230.00, 3220.00, 260.00, 750.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 50.00, - 40.00, 0.00, 0.00, - 3.00 [1]. - The spot prices of Ganqimao coking coal, Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke, and Qingdao Port: PB on March 4 were 640.00, 1480.00, 750.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00, 0.00, - 5.00 [1]. - The basis on March 4 for HC main contract, RB main contract, main contract, J main contract, JM main contract were - 2.00, 99.00, 33.00, - 45.60, 113.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 43.00, 3.00, 0.00, 22.00, 10.00 [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions and wait for the basis to fall before establishing cash - and - carry positions [2][7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, gradually take profits on previous long positions, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [3][7]. - For coking coal and coke, take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral positions and establish cash - and - carry positions on the 05 contract when the price rebounds [5][7]. - For iron ore, enter short positions at pressure levels [6][7].

产 量 和 库 存 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/03/05 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/26 | 3090 | 3200 | 3380 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/27 | 3070 | 3200 | 3330 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/03/02 | 3120 | 3170 | 3330 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/03/03 | 3120 | 3170 | 3330 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/03/04 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津 ...