中信证券研究部 核心观点 市场近期已经演绎出比较典型的水牛特征，我们集中汇总了投资者提问较多的 5 个问题，并给出我们的答案。1）近期的增量资金到底来自于哪？我们最初 观察到的是比较广泛和普遍的机构资金净流入，随着市场赚钱效应开始积累， 我们发现散户的流入也在加速，并且行情热度升温、反内卷叙事逻辑加强，一 些保守型资金可能也在被动调仓。2）基本面和流动性阶段性背离的水牛一般 会持续多久？历史复盘显示，2010 年以来，基本面和流动性背离的水牛，持 续时间通常不超过 4 个月，本轮水牛行情能否演化为持续时间更久的全面牛市 需要观察后续基本面（即使是结构性的）好转情况。3）反内卷叙事下还有哪 些低位低估值品种可以参与？本轮反内卷行情中，简单复制 2021 年博弈上游 涨价的持续性可能有限，但市场还存在一些估值尚处低位且关注度不高的周期 制造类品种，报告正文做了系统梳理。4）人工智能大会后科创板会不会补涨？ 我们认为 2025 世界人工智能大会有望给多个细分领域带来催化，同时随着科 创板"1+6"政策、金融支持科创相关政策的持续推进，自今年 4 月以来明显 滞涨的科创板有望迎来补涨行情。5）突破 3600 点后，当 ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the steel industry in China, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and environmental regulations [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Environmental Regulations**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have strengthened environmental regulations, indicating stricter constraints for the steel industry [1][3]. 2. **Ultra-Low Emission Transformation**: As of April 20, 2025, 189 steel companies have completed or partially completed ultra-low emission transformations, covering a capacity of approximately 760 million tons, with a completion rate of 76%. The goal is to reach 80% completion by the end of 2025 [1][4][8]. 3. **Investment and Costs**: The investment for ultra-low emission transformation is about 470 yuan per ton of steel, with an environmental operating cost of 218 yuan per ton. Comprehensive energy consumption has decreased by 0.52% year-on-year [8][12]. 4. **Demand and Supply Imbalance**: Since 2022, the steel industry has faced weak demand, with apparent consumption of crude steel declining by 10.1%, while production only decreased by 2.7%, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [1][9]. 5. **Export Challenges**: Steel companies are attempting to alleviate domestic oversupply through exports, which are projected to increase by 64% from 2022 to 2024. However, U.S. tariffs and anti-dumping investigations pose significant challenges [1][10][11]. 6. **Profitability Outlook**: Current profit margins for steel are recovering, with profits per ton reaching 100-200 yuan. If supply-side reforms are successfully implemented, profits could further increase [2][5]. 7. **Policy Changes**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has mandated that by 2026, all regulated enterprises must complete full-process ultra-low emission transformations, with penalties for non-compliance [2][7]. Additional Important Content 1. **Electric Arc Furnace Development**: Currently, electric arc furnace capacity in China is only 10%, significantly lower than in developed countries. The goal is to increase this to over 15% by 2025 [2][13]. 2. **Performance of Listed Companies**: Many listed companies have made significant progress in ultra-low emission transformations, particularly state-owned enterprises. However, private enterprises face challenges in completing these transformations [2][6][15]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Despite concerns about the steel sector, the current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic, presenting a potential opportunity for investment in the sector [5][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed during the conference call regarding the steel industry, highlighting the ongoing transformations, regulatory pressures, and market dynamics.

7 月政治局会议的投资机会展望 20250730 摘要 政治局会议强调底线思维，财政和货币政策需落实细化，保持连续性与 稳定性，增强灵活性和预见性，以应对不确定性，但减少了逆周期调节 措施，更注重现有政策的落实。 会议将内需置于首位，扩大商品消费，培育数字、AI、健康等服务消费 新增长点。投资方面，强调扩大有效投资，注重效益，旨在提高整体经 济效益。 供给侧改革方面，继续推进反内卷，但表述温和，从治理低价无序竞争 转为治理无序竞争，从推动落后产能退出改为重点行业产能治理，旨在 优化产业结构。 房地产市场方面，以高质量城市更新代替传统开发，引导房地产业向高 质量发展转变，避免过度依赖房地产拉动经济增长，实现可持续发展。 会议强调增强国内资本市场吸引力和包容性，巩固回稳向好的势头，政 策将继续呵护基本面和资本市场，推动市场行情向好，支持金融市场发 展。 Q&A 2025 年 7 月份的中共中央政治局会议有哪些重要议题和政策部署？ 2025 年 7 月份的中共中央政治局会议讨论了多个重要议题，包括消费、投资、 科技以及国内国际双循环等方面的政策部署。这次会议具有特殊意义，因为它 是五年规划前一年召开的政治局会议，与 ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The steel industry has seen a recovery in profitability compared to last year, with total profits of 46 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, still at historical lows, indicating a need for further improvement in profitability [1][2][5] - The PB valuation of the steel sector is slightly above 1x, but given the industry's profit recovery and the elasticity at the bottom of the cycle, the current valuation remains attractive and has investment value [1][2][10] - The holding ratio in the steel sector has decreased further, indicating low market attention and that the industry is still in a bottom cycle, with trading not being crowded [1][2][10] Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Cycle**: The steel industry's profits have improved in the first half of 2025 but remain historically low, only slightly better than 2015 levels, with total profits around 46 billion yuan [2][5] - **Valuation Levels**: Despite the rise in the steel sector this year, the PB valuation is still considered undervalued, with the potential for profit recovery and elasticity from the bottom cycle [2][10] - **Supply and Demand**: Improvements in supply and demand are primarily driven by production cuts and mid-term capacity clearance, with marginal improvements noted from Q3 last year to Q2 this year [2][3][16] - **Short-term Catalysts**: Supply-side reforms under the anti-involution strategy, including production cuts and increased infrastructure work, are expected to positively impact the industry [1][2][3] Future Outlook - The decision-makers aim to enhance the industry's profit center through short-term production control and mid-term capacity clearance, expecting good performance in the steel industry over the next three years [3][19] - The demand for construction steel is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease for the year, while manufacturing steel demand is strong but may face export pressures in the second half [1][15][16] Recommended Stocks - **Hualing Steel**: Lowest PB valuation among quality companies, with continuous shareholder returns expected [4] - **Shougang**: High fixed costs due to relocation, but has significant potential in automotive and silicon steel if the industry recovers [4] - **Baosteel**: Currently undervalued but will benefit significantly from industry recovery [4] - **Fangda Special Steel**: Currently at historical low PB valuation, with potential for growth if production adjustments are made [4] Government Measures - The government emphasizes anti-involution policies to improve the steel industry's situation, with a focus on reducing production to maintain overall profitability [7][19] - The implementation of production reduction policies has been slow, facing challenges particularly with small steel mills [18] Current Production and Supply Situation - The steel industry is experiencing overproduction due to fixed cost absorption strategies, leading to a competitive environment [6] - The overall inventory level is low, with a year-on-year decrease of about 30%, which is favorable for price increases [20][21] Conclusion - The steel industry is currently at a cyclical bottom with significant potential for upward movement. Quality stocks that enhance product value or have strong profit elasticity are recommended for investment [24][25][27]

反内卷下的黑色系 20250730 摘要 当前政策侧重于治理煤炭行业低价竞争，而非大规模去产能，可能采取 限产或保价措施。倒查超产或导致部分企业受罚，但整体影响有限，市 场情绪波动大于实际供需变化。 焦煤价格受国内供应增加、需求疲软及能源局倒查超产影响，经历近一 年下跌。6 月动力煤价跌至 400 多元/吨，焦煤盘面价跌至 700 多元/吨， 现货价接近 1,000 元/吨，主焦煤现货价低于 1,100 元/吨。 今年 4-5 月焦煤进口量显著下滑，但 6 月起随价格企稳逐步回升，7 月 进一步反弹，表明进口对国内市场有显著影响，可弥补部分供应缺口。 下半年焦煤产量预计放缓，或低于去年同期水平，因政策趋严、现金流 压力及加强监管。若政策端再出标志性事件，行情可能结束。 上游库存向下游转移，钢厂和焦化厂库存增加，有利于短期价格反弹。 需关注上游停止去库并开始垒库的时间点，以及政策变动。 钢铁行业政策指向反内卷和整治低价竞争，可能导致部分行业去产能。 钢铁行业限产概率大，若压减粗钢 5,000 万吨，下半年日均产量需再降 30 万吨。 四五月份市场对下半年钢材出口存在崩塌预期，但随着焦煤价格企稳及 出口风险未能验 ...

Summary of Baogang Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Baogang Co., Ltd. is the largest industrial enterprise in Inner Mongolia, controlled by the local government [2][3] - The company has a complete integrated industrial chain including coking, sintering, ironmaking, steelmaking, and rolling, with an annual production capacity of 17.5 million tons of steel [2][3] - Baogang owns the Baiyun Obo mine, with confirmed iron ore resources of 1.26 billion tons, the world's largest rare earth resources, and the second-largest niobium resources [2][5] Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, Baogang produced 14.21 million tons of iron, 14.99 million tons of steel, and 1.41 million tons of finished products, along with 377,300 tons of rare earth metals and 578,400 tons of fluorite [2][8] - As of the end of 2024, total assets reached 155.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.349 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of around 60% [2][8] - Revenue for 2024 was 68 billion yuan, a 3% decrease year-on-year, while Q1 2025 revenue was 15.4 billion yuan [2][9] Market and Export Dynamics - In 2024, Baogang exported 1.73 million tons, with 88% of exports going to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2][9] - The company has a strong focus on high-end manufacturing and digital transformation, with a digitalization rate of 83% [10] Research and Development - In 2024, Baogang achieved localized sales of 4.8726 million tons and a research intensity exceeding 5%, developing 67 varieties and nearly 300 grades of new rare earth steel materials [11] - The company received 150 innovation achievements or utility model patent authorizations in the same year [11] Environmental and Cost Management - Baogang invested 7 billion yuan in ultra-low emission transformation from 2020 to 2023, completing the required modifications ahead of schedule [18] - The company aims to reduce financial costs, with an average financing cost rate decreasing from 3.8% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025 [26] Strategic Development - Baogang is committed to optimizing its industrial layout and promoting resource utilization, focusing on rare earth as a strategic pivot [13] - The company plans to continue its capital expenditure on technological upgrades, with a total investment plan of 1.876 billion yuan for 2025 [27] Competitive Advantages - Baogang's rare earth alloy steel products exhibit superior toughness and longevity, making them suitable for major engineering projects [25] - The pricing mechanism for rare earth products is influenced by the market prices of key rare earth oxides, with a premium of 100 to 800 yuan per ton compared to ordinary steel [33] Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about future market conditions, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and increasing demand from infrastructure projects [22][23] - Baogang is exploring new cooperation opportunities with Baowu Steel Group, particularly in the coking and carbon industries [35]

Summary of the Conference Call for Fangda Special Steel Company Overview - Fangda Special Steel is located in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, and is a comprehensive steel enterprise involved in mining, coking, sintering, ironmaking, steelmaking, and rolling processes. The company employs over 6,400 people and occupies approximately 3,300 acres, with an annual steel production capacity of about 4.2 million tons [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Fangda Special Steel reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.99%. Total profit reached 322 million yuan, up 184.03% year-on-year, primarily due to cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [2][4]. - The gross profit margin improved to 4.04%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.2% [5]. Production and Sales Highlights - The production volume in Q1 2025 was 1.0276 million tons, with sales of 1.0286 million tons, achieving a production-sales rate of over 100% [6]. - Sales of construction materials increased by 4.73%, while engineering sales rose by 19.6% [6]. Industry Challenges and Responses - The steel industry faces challenges from anti-involution policies, which may lead to production cuts among some companies. Fangda Special Steel, due to its strong profitability, is likely to have production cut tasks assigned to less profitable subsidiaries to ensure stable operations [7][8]. - The company has completed ultra-low emission modifications, which increased costs by approximately 200 yuan per ton. Companies that have not completed these modifications may face elimination in the future [11][14]. Market Outlook - The demand for steel in the second half of 2025 is not expected to significantly increase, with price rises primarily driven by market sentiment rather than actual demand recovery [8]. - The company is closely monitoring national policies regarding supply-side adjustments to mitigate the impact of production cuts on its business [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Fangda Special Steel has entered the new energy vehicle supply chain through a partnership with CATL, focusing on electric chassis suspension components, which are currently in the sample supply stage [4][27]. - The company is actively seeking acquisition opportunities to expand its production capacity to 50 million tons [30]. Environmental and Capital Expenditure - Since 2017, Fangda Special Steel has invested over 2 billion yuan in ultra-low emission modifications, with current production costs around 120 yuan per ton. The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between 600 million to 700 million yuan, including a 650 MW subcritical power generation project [33][34]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a conservative cash flow management strategy over the past two years due to unfavorable industry conditions. However, with improved profitability, the minimum shareholder return is set at 30%, with potential increases to 50% or 70% depending on future performance [32]. Conclusion - Fangda Special Steel demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic initiatives to navigate industry challenges while focusing on environmental compliance and potential growth through acquisitions and partnerships. The outlook for the steel market remains cautious, with a focus on adapting to policy changes and market dynamics.

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]

民生证券指出，7月政治局会议再次明确"反内卷"，依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治 理。与7月1日中财委"反内卷"表述比较，去除了"低价"，"落后产能有序退出"变为"重点行业产能治 理"。从变化来看，产能治理的路径不局限于落后产能，同时治理目标也由提价转向理性竞争即提高行 业利润。短期来看，钢材需求进入季节性淡季，价格过快上涨可能有所回调。长期来看，产能治理依然 是未来的主线，市场化、行政化手段相结合，粗钢供给有望进一步优化，叠加远期铁矿新增产能的逐步 释放，钢企盈利能力有望修复。 智通财经APP获悉，钢铁股涨幅居前，截至发稿，马鞍山钢铁股份(00323)涨10.96%，报2.43港元；鞍钢 股份(00347)涨5%，报2.31港元；铁货(01029)涨2.74%，报0.75港元；重庆钢铁股份(01053)涨2.08%，报 1.47港元。 消息面上，上半年中钢协重点统计钢铁企业累计营业收入为29985亿元，同比下降5.79%；营业成本为 28055亿元，同比下降6.83%；利润总额为592亿元，同比增长63.26%；平均利润率为1.97%，同比上升 0.83个百分点。中国钢铁工业协会会长赵民革指出， ...

Summary of Hualing Steel Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hualing Steel - **Industry**: Steel Manufacturing Key Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Hualing Steel reported a total profit of 1.202 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 562 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 115% [2][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 7.87 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 57.24%, indicating a stable financial structure despite being in a state of net asset deficit [2][4] - The company has consistently ranked among the top three listed steel enterprises in terms of total profit since 2018 [5] Strategic Initiatives - Hualing Steel is undergoing a transformation towards high-end products, increasing equipment investment, and adjusting product layout, with projects like the automotive steel phase one completed and silicon steel projects accelerating [2][7] - The company collaborates with Huawei and China Mobile to launch an AI model, enhancing the efficiency of standardized inspections in cold-rolled processes by over 60% [2][7] - Hualing Steel is committed to ultra-low emissions, achieving record levels of self-generated electricity [2][7] Future Projects and Investments - Hualing Hengguan is constructing a 559 mm diameter large-caliber seamless pipe project, expected to be operational in the first half of 2026, which will enhance its capabilities in oil and gas and renewable energy sectors [2][8] - The company plans to maintain a high capital expenditure of 5.5 billion yuan in 2025, with nearly half allocated to ultra-low emissions modifications [4][13] Shareholder Returns - Hualing Steel is actively returning value to shareholders through increased cash dividends, share buybacks, and major shareholder purchases, with a cash dividend of 687 million yuan in 2025, representing 34% of the net profit [9][10] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had repurchased 42.06 million shares for a total of 200 million yuan, with major shareholders increasing their stakes [10][32] Industry Outlook - The steel industry is expected to see a bottom reversal in 2025, with Hualing Steel showing strong performance despite being undervalued [3][11] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances, but companies with technological advantages and reasonable product structures are likely to maintain stable profitability [11][12] - The overall demand for steel is stabilizing, with structural opportunities emerging despite a slow decline in total demand [11][26] Challenges and Opportunities - Hualing Steel faced challenges in 2024 due to transitional adjustments in raw material structures, which have since been resolved [6] - The company is focused on high-end, green, and intelligent transformation to maintain its leading profitability in the industry [4][13] R&D and Product Development - R&D investment accounts for approximately 4% of revenue, with ongoing efforts to enhance product offerings in high-end markets, particularly in silicon steel [7][22][37] - Hualing Steel has become the largest domestic producer of silicon steel since 2021, with plans to further penetrate the mid-to-high-end market [22][23] Conclusion - Hualing Steel is positioned for growth through strategic investments in high-end products, technological advancements, and a commitment to sustainability, while actively enhancing shareholder value and navigating industry challenges.