Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data in the week ending January 8 showed significant changes, with soybean export sales and shipments increasing compared to the previous week and four - week average, while soybean meal export shipments decreased [1]. - The U.S. December 2025 soybean crushing volume reached the second - highest in history, and the soybean oil inventory expanded to a 19 - month high [1]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with CONAB slightly lowering the forecast, while Agroconsult and RaboResearch predicting an increase [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel quota in early March, and there are considerations regarding the bio - based diesel quota [1]. - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff, and the palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 increased compared to the previous month [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content U.S. Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Data - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 206.19 million tons, up 135% from the previous week and 54% from the four - week average, with an export shipment of 163.74 million tons, up 47% from the previous week and 71% from the four - week average. New sales were 213.39 million tons for the current market year and 1 million tons for the next market year. Sales to the Chinese mainland net increased by 122.41 million tons, and shipments to the Chinese mainland were 90.11 million tons [1]. - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 34.06 million tons, up 115% from the previous week and 15% from the four - week average. Export shipments were 30.52 million tons, down 39% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. New sales were 35.92 million tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. U.S. Soybean Crushing and Inventory Data - In December 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly lower than the record high in October. The total soybean crushing volume in 2025 was nearly 2.4 billion bushels [1]. - As of December 31, 2025, the U.S. soybean oil inventory increased to 1.642 billion pounds, up 8.5% from the end of November and 32.8% from December 2024 [1]. Brazil's Soybean Production Forecast - CONAB lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 176.12 million tons, slightly lower than the December forecast, with a slightly decreased yield per hectare and a slightly lower export volume forecast [1]. - Agroconsult predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record 182.2 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the November estimate and 10.1 million tons from the previous year [1]. - RaboResearch predicted that Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean planting area would increase by 2%, and if the current yield trend continued, the production could reach a new record of 177 million tons. The export volume was expected to remain at the 2025 record level of 111 million tons, and the crushing volume was expected to increase by 2 million tons to 60 million tons [1]. Biofuel Policy - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keep the quota at a similar level to the current proposal, and is considering a bio - based diesel quota between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and may abandon the plan to penalize renewable fuel and its raw material imports [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (equivalent to 950 US dollars) [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 was 690,642 tons, up 17.5% from the same period last month, while ITS reported an export volume of 727,440 tons, up 18.6% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 9 - 15, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [2].

【行情分析】： 玉米：元旦过后，市场交投情绪依旧偏稳，政策性轮储继续补充市场玉米供应。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补 充，但是供应增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维持阶段性偏强的表现。中长期 来看，需重点关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：深加工行业整体保持稳定，持续的高开机和高企的产业库存保证供应的充足，下游消费预期逐步升温，年关将近，传统的备货旺季也将 持续对消费形成支撑。短期看，供需端均保持稳定的情况下，预计现货价格仍将稳中偏强运行，主要关注节前下游备货积极性变化，这将决定 未来一个月时间里，企业调价意愿。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是 否会持续去化将成为未来淀粉定价的关键因素。 | 白糖 | | 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 进口利润 | 仓单 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 柳州 | 南宁 | 昆明 | 柳州基差 | 泰 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biofuel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices, but currently, it's hard to form a trending direction. In the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to adopt a long - position mindset of buying on dips for soybean and palm oil, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength[2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the 05 contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term with intraday trading, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts[4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Agricultural, Livestock, and Edible Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 15th, under the double negative factors of Malaysia lowering the export tariff of crude palm oil in February and the easing of the Iranian crisis with a drop in international crude oil prices, palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton, down 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,882 lots. The main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton, down 1.94% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,279 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton, down 1.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,208 lots[1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On January 15th, NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, ending a five - day rally, with the 2 - month crude oil futures contract down 2.83 dollars or 4.6%, settling at 59.19 dollars per barrel[1]. - Discussions on canola seeds between Beijing and Canada have achieved results, and negotiations are still ongoing[1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal, and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons[1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% blending ratio. However, the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026[1][2]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil[1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%[1]. - From January 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from 390,442 tons in the same period of December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons to 18,000 tons[1]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a weekly decrease of 104,800 tons, a 4.67% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.76% year - on - year increase[2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation has pressured international crude oil prices, but the US government's approval of the 2026 biofuel quota has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil prices initially fell but recovered due to the sharp rise in US soybean oil[2]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Customs has tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the auction of domestic old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the Spring Festival stocking is still ongoing. For palm oil, Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan in 2026 has led to a recovery in import profits and inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the discussion on canola seeds has achieved results, but short - selling funds entered the market, and then the price rebounded at night[2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract[2]. - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the spread between soybean and palm oil[2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 15th, the market basically digested the negative news of Canadian rapeseed's return to the Chinese market. With weak oil and strong meal, the near - month contracts of the two - meal oscillated, and the far - month contracts were bearish. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 6,160 lots[2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3,630 - 3,790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton, mostly at a premium[3]. - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and the US[3]. - As of January 9th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%[3]. - As of December 30th, the 2025/26 Argentine soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions[3]. - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 were estimated to be 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. The estimated soybean exports in January 2026 are 2.4 million tons, a 114% year - on - year increase, and the 2026 exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons[3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons from the previous week[3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US new - year biofuel usage plan has boosted the price of US soybeans. - Domestically, the spot price of the oil mill is stable, and the near - month basis is strong. Before the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to rise. The negotiation on reducing the Canadian rapeseed tariff is ongoing and effective, and there are rumors of opening the import of Canadian rapeseed meal, which suppresses the futures market[4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - The 05 contracts of the two - meal are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, with intraday trading. Short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There is no arbitrage strategy for now[4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang production areas has ended. The raw material acquisition in the production areas is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The market focus has shifted to the consumer end. Traders commonly hoard raw materials in Xinjiang. As the twelfth lunar month approaches, the holiday stocking demand is expected to drive the market into a phased peak in sales. Currently, the spot price remains generally stable, and there may be short - term fluctuations in jujube prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 122,345 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 20,619 lots, a decrease of 1,738 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,211, an increase of 232 - The total valid warehouse receipt forecast was 411, a decrease of 93 [2] 现货市场 - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, unchanged - The unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.65 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged - The unified price of Aksu jujubes was 5.15 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 9.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan - The price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 9.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg, unchanged - The price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 8.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons. The jujube planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons. The monthly jujube export volume was 3,537,566 kg, an increase of 1,332,346 kg - The cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 29,291,188 kg, an increase of 3,537,566 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points - The average daily number of incoming trucks at Ruyifang Market was 6.2, an increase of 0.8. The monthly average wholesale price of jujubes was 10.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.46 yuan - In Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived, including sub - standard and finished products. Local processing factories mainly processed and sold their own goods, and holders were actively selling [2] Industry News - Downstream merchants made purchases as needed. Some holders reported improved sales. In the Guangdong market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, the market was full, prices were stable, and market transactions were acceptable [2]

Group 1 - The cooperation between Shenzhen and Harbin has been upgraded, with the establishment of mutual service centers aimed at enhancing international market access for Heilongjiang's manufacturing and agricultural products [1][2] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Heilongjiang's foreign trade is expected to double compared to 2020, with an annual growth rate of 19.3%, and trade with Russia is projected to increase from 13% in 2020 to over 15% by 2025 [1] - Shenzhen, as China's leading foreign trade city, has achieved a total import and export volume of 18.9 trillion yuan since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," accounting for 9.5% of the national total, indicating significant potential for collaboration [1] Group 2 - Shenzhen's "Outreach E-Station" has established a robust service ecosystem, gathering over 200 quality service providers and integrating more than 70 cross-border public services, demonstrating its effectiveness in supporting national enterprises [2] - The establishment of the "Shenzhen Professional Institutions Service Heilongjiang Enterprises Going Abroad Alliance" aims to provide comprehensive professional services, enhancing accessibility to international services for Heilongjiang enterprises [2] - A cooperation agreement was signed between the Harbin Free Trade Zone and the Qianhai Shekou Free Trade Zone to share over 100 reform experiences in investment trade facilitation and financial innovation [2][3] Group 3 - The collaboration aims to connect coastal and border areas, facilitating access to high-standard international trade rules and jointly exploring markets in Russia, Mongolia, and Northeast Asia [3] - Since the establishment of the partnership in 2017, the Shenzhen-Harbin Industrial Park has registered 703 enterprises with a total registered capital of 24.2 billion yuan, fostering the development of digital economy, biotechnology, and high-end equipment manufacturing [3] - Key cooperation projects signed during the conference include initiatives in agricultural industrialization, cross-border legal services, and cold chain data services, covering multiple critical sectors [3][4] Group 4 - The collaboration between Heilongjiang's Shangzhi City and Shenzhen Agricultural Investment Group aims to promote the standardization, branding, and digital development of high-quality agricultural products [4] - The Shenzhen Qianhai Belt and Road Legal Services Alliance and Harbin Lawyers Association will focus on resource sharing and collaborative services for outbound enterprises [4] - Shenzhen Qianhai Yueshi Information Technology Co., Ltd. and Heilongjiang Food Cold Chain Logistics Association plan to invest a total of 1 billion yuan over five years to establish the "Heilongjiang Quality Agricultural Products Cold Chain Data Service Center" [4]

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on January 15 saw more declines than increases, with the main contracts for tin, nickel, and stainless steel rising over 8%, 4%, and 3% respectively, while palladium and platinum fell over 4% [1][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1677.07 points, down 6.18 points or 0.37% from the previous trading day, and the Commodity Futures Index closed at 2313.35 points, down 8.77 points or 0.38% [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the metal sector continued, with tin and nickel prices rising due to tightening policies in Indonesia, although there was a slight pullback from intraday highs [3][4] - Tin's supply is expected to tighten as Indonesia sets production quotas significantly below market expectations, while nickel prices are supported by potential reductions in mining quotas, although uncertainties remain regarding actual supply [4] - The agricultural sector, particularly egg prices, is experiencing a rebound due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with egg futures rising over 2% and reaching a one-month high [4][5] Group 3 - Precious metals have seen a correction after recent highs, with platinum and palladium dropping over 4%, while gold and silver remain strong despite a cooling market sentiment [5][6] - The oil market is under pressure due to reduced geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in downstream polyester chain products, with paraxylene futures falling by 2.49% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Mission has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Calavo, indicating a strategic move to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Calavo is expected to strengthen Mission's portfolio and expand its operational reach [2]. - A press release and presentation regarding the acquisition have been made available online under the Investor Relations section of both companies' websites [3]. Group 2: Forward-Looking Statements - The comments made during the call and the accompanying presentation include forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 [3][4]. - These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, along with various assumptions about future events [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that certain sensitive agricultural products are excluded from negotiations in the India-EU trade agreement [1] Group 2 - Indian trade officials have indicated that the exclusion of sensitive agricultural products is a strategic decision to protect domestic interests [1] - The trade agreement discussions are ongoing, with a focus on balancing trade benefits while safeguarding local agriculture [1] - This decision may impact the overall dynamics of the India-EU trade relationship, particularly in the agricultural sector [1]

（文章来源：新华财经） 船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚1月1-15日棕榈油出口量为727440吨，较上月同期出口的613172吨 增加18.64%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is at a critical turning point influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with specific forecasts for various commodities through 2026 [1][20]. Oil Market - The short-term oil market is driven by geopolitical premiums, with a price target of $70 per barrel for Brent crude, influenced by tensions in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as export disruptions in Kazakhstan and Libya [3][6]. - However, the long-term outlook is bearish due to expected supply surplus and policy pressures, particularly from the U.S. government aiming for lower oil prices [6][20]. Precious Metals - In the precious metals sector, silver is expected to outperform gold, with target prices set at $100 per ounce for silver and $5,000 for gold, driven by current market momentum and capital flows [7][20]. - The report suggests that these high price levels may trigger hedging actions from producers and central banks [7]. Base Metals - Aluminum is identified as having the most structural opportunity, facing a significant supply deficit, with short-term price targets of $3,400 per ton and mid-term targets of $3,500 [8][20]. - In contrast, copper is forecasted to reach $14,000 per ton, but the confidence in this projection has weakened significantly since December, with a warning that January may be the peak for the year [11][20]. Lithium Market - The lithium market has seen a rebound of over 50%, primarily due to supply constraints from delays in mining operations and tightening policies [12][14]. - Citigroup has raised the three-month price target for lithium carbonate to $25,000 per ton, reflecting strong demand from battery manufacturers [13][20]. - Despite the short-term strength, there is a cautious long-term outlook for lithium prices, anticipating downward pressure as supply increases [14]. Natural Gas and Agriculture - The natural gas market is expected to face long-term supply surplus challenges, with bearish views on LNG and European TTF gas prices starting from 2027 [15][20]. - In agriculture, a bullish outlook is maintained for most commodities, with sugar prices expected to rebound in 2026 due to increased demand from China and changes in Brazilian production [19][20].