联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.66%，收于228 | | | | | 8元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业报价涨跌互现、窄幅波动。东北地 | | | | | 区企业收购价2197元/吨，较前一日跌2元/吨；华北地区收购均价2288元/吨，较前 | | | | | 一日涨4元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2290-2300元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2410元/吨，较前一日持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至1月29日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减少2 | | | | | 300手，累计52045手。 | | | | | 4、售粮进度方面，中国粮油商务网监测数 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oil and Fat - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise to around 4,350 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may break through 9,400 yuan and reach 9,500 yuan. CBOT soybean oil futures may continue to rise, and domestic soybean oil futures may reach 8,500 yuan. Rapeseed oil may test 9,500 yuan [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are under pressure, but the decline is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a consolidation pattern. International sugar production is affected by factors such as reduced production in Brazil and slow progress in Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are expected to rebound from the low level [3]. Jujube - The current jujube sales are slower than last year. The commodity market sentiment has boosted the futures price, but it is still undervalued. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival sales and inventory [4]. Apple - The Spring Festival stocking is in full swing, and the inventory in main producing areas has decreased. The sales structure is differentiated. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday inventory [5]. Corn - The corn market has support at the bottom and pressure at the top, and the futures price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the enterprise stocking rhythm and policy release [8]. Pig - The spot price of pigs is oscillating weakly, and the supply pressure is increasing. The futures and spot prices are both weak, and the market is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [11]. Meal - US soybeans have strong support at the bottom. The domestic spot market is loose, but the downside space of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is limited. The pre - holiday stocking sentiment may fade, and the futures price may decline [14]. Egg - The egg supply is normal, but the market digestion is slowing down. The futures price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [17]. Group 3: Summary by Category Oil and Fat - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 0.57% to 8,790 yuan, and the futures price of Y2605 rose by 0.67% to 8,382 yuan. The basis decreased by 20 yuan [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong rose by 1.19% to 9,370 yuan, and the futures price of P2605 rose by 0.99% to 9,362 yuan. The basis increased by 18 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu rose by 1.07% to 10,386 yuan, and the futures price of OI605 rose by 1.24% to 9,446 yuan. The basis decreased by 6 yuan [1]. Cotton - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.20% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE US cotton decreased by 0.22% to 63.64 cents/pound [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.37% to 15,832 yuan [2]. - **Industry situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 100%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.5%. Import volume increased by 49.5%, and the export of textile products increased [2]. Sugar - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2605 increased by 1.35% to 5,257 yuan/ton, and the price of ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.74% to 14.72 cents/pound [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.75% to 5,340 yuan [3]. - **Industry situation**: National sugar production decreased by 16.43%, and sales decreased by 37.18%. The industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube - The futures price of jujube 2605 increased by 0.74% to 8,895 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt increased by 3,313 [4]. Apple - The futures price of apple 2605 increased by 1.15% to 9,642 yuan/ton. The national main - producing area inventory decreased by 4.21% to 654.05 million tons [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2603 increased by 0.31% to 2,281 yuan/ton. The north - south trade profit increased by 2000% to 19 yuan [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2603 increased by 0.20% to 2,535 yuan/ton [8]. Pig - **Futures market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 21.01% to 1,485 yuan (base). The price of pig 2605 decreased by 0.47% to 11,640 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot market**: The price in Henan decreased by 500 yuan to 12,650 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry situation**: The sample slaughter volume decreased by 1.54%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.32% to 3,130 yuan, and the futures price of M2605 increased by 0.72% to 2,802 yuan [14]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.78% to 2,580 yuan, and the futures price of RM2605 increased by 1.22% to 2,325 yuan [14]. - **Soybean**: The price of the first - grade soybean futures increased by 1.39% to 4,436 yuan, and the price of the second - grade soybean futures increased by 0.70% to 3,596 yuan [14]. Egg - The price of the egg 03 contract decreased by 0.89% to 3,021 yuan/500KG. The egg - feed ratio increased by 8.81% to 2.84, and the breeding profit increased by 129.87% to 3.19 yuan/feather [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The US soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data for the week ending January 22 showed mixed performance, with soybean exports decreasing and soybean meal exports increasing. The expected US soybean crush volume in December is likely to reach a high level due to increased demand for soybean oil in biofuel production [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Export Sales - For the week ending January 22, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 81.90 million tons, down 67% from the previous week and 50% from the four - week average, meeting the market's expected range of 40.0 - 180.0 million tons. The export shipment was 126.96 million tons, down 5% from the previous week and 4% from the four - week average. The current - market - year new sales were 82.98 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0 tons [1] Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Meal Export Sales - For the week ending January 22, US current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 46.43 million tons, up 13% from the previous week and 82% from the four - week average, within the market's expected range of 22.5 - 50.0 million tons. The export shipment was 33.06 million tons, down 32% from the previous week and 15% from the four - week average. The current - market - year new sales were 46.82 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0.01 million tons [1] Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Crush Volume Forecast - Before the USDA's monthly report, analysts expected the US soybean crush volume in December to be 6.914 million short tons (about 230.4 million bushels). If realized, it would be 5.9% higher than November 2024's 217.7 million bushels and 4.5% higher than November's 220.5 million bushels, reaching the second - highest monthly crush record. The forecast range was 227 - 234.5 million bushels, with a median of 230 million bushels [1] Overnight Market Information - US Soybean Oil Inventory Forecast - A survey of four industry analysts showed that as of December 31, US soybean oil inventory was expected to be 2.279 billion pounds, with a forecast range of 2.25 - 2.3 billion pounds and a median of 2.283 billion pounds [1] Spot Price - From January 23 to January 29, 2026, the spot prices of bean粕 in Jiangsu remained at 3070, while the prices of菜粕 in Guangdong increased from 2390 to 2480,豆油 in Jiangsu increased from 8570 to 8790,棕榈油 in Guangzhou increased from 8880 to 9310, and菜油 in Jiangsu increased from 9810 to 10240 [1]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: January 30, 2026 [2] - Report type: Agricultural products morning report [12] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Corn - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Changchun remained at 2190, in Jinzhou at 2290 - 2300, in Weifang increased from 2260 to 2300, in Shekou decreased from 2440 to 2430. The basis changed from 0 to 9, and the trade profit and import profit changed from 338 to 310 [3] - Market analysis: Short - term, with producers holding prices and limited supply increase, and low inventory and downstream stocking expectations, prices are expected to be strong. Medium - to long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies due to supply gap [3] Starch - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Heilongjiang remained at 2750, in Weifang at 2820. The basis changed from 80 to 160, and the processing profit changed from - 90 to - 98 [3] - Market analysis: Short - term, with festival stocking and inventory reduction, enterprise quotes are expected to be strong. Medium - to long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [4] Group 3: Sugar Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Liuzhou increased from 5340 to 5370, in Nanning from 5280 to 5320, in Kunming from 5170 to 5190. The basis decreased from 160 to 113, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil increased by 40 [5] - Market analysis: Internationally, 25/26 season northern hemisphere production is expected to increase. Domestically, short - term supply pressure eases, and long - term, if global surplus intensifies, prices may fall to import cost [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Cotton - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased from 15630 to 15880, the import profit from 2914 to 3036, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + forecast) decreased by 11 [5] - Market analysis: Low initial inventory offsets production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies, demand is expected to improve. New - season Xinjiang planting area may decline, suitable for long - term long positions [5] Group 5: Egg Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable, and the basis increased from 511 to 1214 [6] - Market analysis: Spring Festival stocking drives price rebound, and the chicken culling pace slows. Pay attention to demand and culling data, as different culling choices will affect second - quarter egg prices [6] Group 6: Apple Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8900. The 1 - month basis decreased from 684 to 609, the 5 - month basis from - 635 to - 742, and the 10 - month basis from 556 to 474 [9] - Market analysis: The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is light. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, while lower - quality apples' prices are loose. As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate is 14.06% [10] Group 7: Pig Market - Price data: From January 23 - 29, 2026, prices in Henan Kaifeng decreased from 13.23 to 12.63, in Hubei Xiangyang from 13.00 to 12.35, in Shandong Linyi from 13.27 to 12.77, in Anhui Hefei from 13.65 to 12.90, in Jiangsu Nantong from 13.80 to 13.05. The basis decreased from 1665 to 1465 [10] - Market analysis: Weekend spot prices are first strong then weak. Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but it's difficult to maintain high prices. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, with potential short - term supply - demand mismatch. Pay attention to factors like slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [10]

Core Insights - The "Lintao Fresh" Dingxi Agricultural Specialty Pavilion and the "Diao Chan Yi Pin" Economic Operation Center have officially opened, marking a significant step in the branding and market operation of Lintao's high-quality agricultural products [1] Group 1: Overview of the Pavilion - The pavilion serves as a comprehensive platform for product exhibition, business negotiations, and brand promotion, featuring over 200 products, with more than 70% sourced from Lintao County, achieving near-total coverage of local specialties [1] - The sales strategy combines online and offline methods, group purchasing, and retail, establishing a direct supply and sales mechanism for high-quality products [1] Group 2: Agricultural Advantages - "Lintao Fresh" leverages six key specialty industries: vegetables, potatoes, medicinal herbs, lilies, flowers, and livestock, ensuring a stable supply and strict quality assurance through a full-chain quality control and traceability system [1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The operation of the pavilion and economic center is expected to enhance the brand influence of Lintao agricultural products, assist local enterprises in market expansion, increase income for the community, and promote high-quality local agricultural products nationwide [1]

（来源：工人日报） 本报记者 刘金梦 摄 近日，南京农业展览会启幕，"中国荷藕之乡"江苏扬州宝应县携一众生态农品、非遗文创亮相，全方位 呈现从田间到餐桌的全链条农业成果。 凭借全国唯一以荷藕为主导的国家级现代农业产业园优势、完善的全产业链体系以及优质营商环境，宝 应县与多家企业达成合作，6个重点项目成功签约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Parliament has voted to submit the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement for review by the EU Court, which may delay the approval process and increase uncertainty regarding its implementation [1] Group 1: Agreement Overview - The EU and Mercosur reached the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement after over 25 years of negotiations, marking the largest and highest-level trade agreement between the EU and Latin America [1][2] - The agreement aims to create a free trade area covering approximately 700 million people by systematically reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, deepening economic ties and regulatory integration between the two regions [2] Group 2: Strategic Implications for the EU - The agreement is expected to increase EU exports to Mercosur by approximately 39%, creating over 440,000 jobs and opening new markets for industries facing competition from the US and China [3] - The EU aims to diversify its supply chains by accessing key raw materials such as lithium, copper, and soybeans from Mercosur, enhancing economic resilience [3] - The agreement incorporates environmental commitments, including adherence to the Paris Agreement and Amazon rainforest protection, as core elements to embed EU values in the Latin American market [3] Group 3: Mercosur's Objectives - Mercosur countries seek to access the EU's high-end market for agricultural products like beef, sugar, and ethanol, while attracting EU investments in manufacturing and renewable energy to upgrade their industrial structures [4] - The agreement has drawn criticism from the US, which accuses the EU of monopolizing the South American market through geographical indication protections, reflecting the EU's strategic intent to counter US protectionism [4] Group 4: Tariff Liberalization and Sensitive Industries - The tariff liberalization level is close to 90%, with Mercosur committing to liberalize 91% of its import value and the EU 92% of its import value [5] - Both parties have set a transition period of up to 15 years for sensitive industries, with the EU implementing strict quota management for sensitive agricultural products to address domestic opposition [5][6] Group 5: Market Access and Competition - The agreement expands EU companies' access to Mercosur's government procurement and key service sectors, creating fairer competition opportunities [10][11] - It establishes high standards for intellectual property protection, particularly for geographical indications, enhancing the EU's agricultural brand interests [12] Group 6: Environmental and Labor Standards - The agreement links trade to sustainable development, incorporating legally binding environmental commitments and labor rights protections [13] - It introduces rules to ensure fair competition between state-owned and private enterprises, promoting a neutral market environment [14] Group 7: Dispute Resolution Mechanism - A multi-tiered dispute resolution mechanism is established to address trade disputes more effectively than under WTO frameworks, enhancing the agreement's stability and predictability [15] Group 8: Implications for China - The agreement poses structural challenges and opportunities for China, potentially impacting its market share in the region while also encouraging industrial upgrades and strategic cooperation [16][17] - China can leverage the demand for intermediate goods in Mercosur to strengthen its position in global supply chains and explore new cooperative models [18]

Core Viewpoint - The "Guangdong Goods Going Global: Gathering Goodness" New Year Goods Festival is launched in Huizhou, promoting local agricultural products and cultural experiences through a series of events from January 28 to February 15, 2023 [2][3][31] Group 1: Event Overview - The festival is organized by Huizhou's Agricultural and Rural Bureau in collaboration with various local agencies and associations, aiming to boost consumption and showcase over 300 types of Huizhou's specialty agricultural products [2][4][31] - The event features a blend of online and offline activities, providing a platform for local farmers and producers to connect with consumers [4][29] Group 2: Featured Activities - From January 30 to 31, a themed exhibition in Guangzhou's Tianhe City Shopping Center will showcase trendy products like 3D-printed shoes and over 80 types of agricultural specialties, highlighting Huizhou's industrial strength in fashion [7][8][9] - The "Jiu Hui Tong Xin Agricultural Innovation Park" will serve as a one-stop New Year goods procurement hub from January 31 to February 8, featuring local star products and a warm support area for high-quality agricultural products from assisted regions [12][13][14] Group 3: Cultural and Community Engagement - The festival will integrate intangible cultural heritage and public welfare activities, with a grand New Year carnival at Huizhou Workers' Cultural Palace from February 9 to 15, showcasing popular local foods and traditional performances [17][18][20] - The event will also include promotional activities through the Huimin Tong app, offering significant discounts on local products, enhancing consumer engagement [23][24][25] Group 4: Economic Impact - The festival aims to create a new platform for showcasing and selling Huizhou's quality agricultural products, helping them reach broader markets and enhancing the local economy [29][30]

Group 1 - The total value of goods trade in Liaoning Province reached 748.56 billion RMB, with exports hitting a record high of 407.73 billion RMB, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, which is 1.9 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for a significant portion of exports, totaling 206.36 billion RMB, also growing by 8%, indicating a shift towards higher value-added and technologically advanced products [1] - Labor-intensive products such as agricultural goods and clothing have also seen steady growth, supported by their quality, contributing to the overall positive trade performance [1] Group 2 - Private enterprises have become increasingly important, with import and export values reaching 390.35 billion RMB, a growth of 6.7%, and their share rising to 52.1% [2] - ASEAN remains the largest trading partner with a trade volume of 118.08 billion RMB and a high growth rate of 23.9%, while trade with Korea, Latin America, and Africa has also shown robust growth, particularly with Africa seeing a 39% increase [2] - Despite fluctuations in commodity prices leading to a decline in overall imports, there has been significant growth in the import of consumer goods like seafood, reflecting a demand for consumption upgrades and market vitality [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybeans market is in a stalemate, with futures showing wide - range fluctuations but a stable overall center. If the consumer side remains weak before the Spring Festival, the price will have limited upward momentum and stay in a high - level range. The peanut market has abundant upstream inventory and cautious downstream procurement. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and future focus should be on the oil mills' acquisition rhythm and shutdown arrangements [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4375.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 65, down 11 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean spot prices remained stable overall, but the shipping rhythm slowed down, and terminal demand needed to be boosted. Specific spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang were provided [1] - The main soybean futures contract price fluctuated narrowly. The domestic soybean spot market was in a stalemate with narrow price fluctuations. The market focused on future demand release. Downstream procurement was weak, and terminal consumption recovered slowly, making it difficult to support concentrated stocking demand [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8082.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8036.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 1082.00, up 20.00 or 1.88% month - on - month. Detailed spot prices of different peanut varieties in various regions and oil mill procurement prices were provided [3] - The main peanut futures contract price fluctuated narrowly. The peanut market had abundant upstream inventory and cautious downstream procurement. Some grass - roots and traders were reluctant to sell, most oil mills' purchase prices were stable, and food companies' pre - festival stocking was almost over. With the pre - Spring Festival logistics shutdown, market demand might further shrink, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate and consolidate [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [5]