1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no content about the report industry investment rating in the provided documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level supply and weakening demand. The high - valued ore price is under pressure, but market sentiment has improved. The ore price is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern, which makes the ore price under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weak. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining with an expanding decline rate, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are only slightly alleviated. With the reappearance of production restrictions, the demand weakening trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, domestic port ore arrivals and miners' shipments are at a high level, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, resulting in large supply pressure. The high - level supply and weakening demand lead to a poor fundamental situation for iron ore, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may be more cost - effective than shorting [10]. - For manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end; otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend with a low cost - performance for operation [10]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, easily following the commodity environment. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [13][16]. - For glass, it is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend. For soda ash, the price is expected to maintain a stable and weak trend [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3046 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.81%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1437 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 81220 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3250 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4799 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 182 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 0 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is crucial. Future development focuses on high - quality development of real estate and population. Fundamentally, rebar shows a neutral performance with both supply and demand increasing and inventory decreasing. Hot - rolled coils have a slight decline in production, rising demand, and marginal inventory reduction but still at a relatively high level [2]. - The steel mill profitability rate has declined significantly, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve [2]. Iron Ore **Market Information** - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.77% (- 6.00), and the positions increased by 4501 lots to 56.56 million lots. The weighted positions were 95.82 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [4]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume has rebounded, with increases in Australia, Brazil, and FMG's shipments, and a slight increase in non - mainstream countries' shipments. The near - end arrival volume has decreased [5]. - Demand: The average daily molten iron output has dropped below 240,000 tons, affected by weak steel prices, low mill profitability, and environmental protection in Hebei. The contradiction between high molten iron and terminal demand has been realized, and the molten iron output has decreased [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and mill inventory has a slight increase. Fundamentally, the iron ore demand has weakened, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate, putting pressure on prices [5]. - Macroscopically, pay attention to the "15th Five - Year Plan" details and the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, which may improve market sentiment [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron **Market Information** - On October 24, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.79% at 5772 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 138 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.57% at 5542 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [7][8]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Macroscopically, important meetings have positive statements, but there is no super - expected content. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the APEC meeting. The black sector's fundamentals have concerns about high supply and low demand, and the mill profitability rate has dropped to 47.62%. There may be a "negative feedback" risk in the short term [9]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is more cost - effective to find callback positions to do rebounds. For manganese silicon, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end. For silicon iron, it is likely to follow the black sector's trend [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon **Market Information** - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8920 yuan/ton, down 1.55% (- 140). The weighted positions decreased by 11,008 lots to 427,574 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton; the 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 70 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 52,305 yuan/ton, down 1.46% (- 775). The weighted positions decreased by 12,056 lots to 231,619 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 were unchanged, with a basis of 675 yuan/ton [15]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Industrial silicon: Supply pressure persists, with increasing weekly output. Demand support is weakening, and there is no obvious improvement in supply and demand. It is expected to move in a short - term consolidation, following the commodity environment [13][14]. - Polysilicon: Supply pressure may be marginally relieved as some capacities may be overhauled. The downstream start - up rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, and the price shows a wide - range shock pattern [16]. Glass and Soda Ash **Market Information** - Glass: The main contract closed at 1092 yuan/ton, down 1.44% (- 16). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 233,740,000 cases (+ 3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 9086 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 66,487 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1229 yuan/ton, down 0.49% (- 6). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 160,000 tons (+ 3.64%), with a decrease in heavy - soda inventory and an increase in light - soda inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased 6467 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,937 lots [20]. **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, downstream procurement has slowed down, and supply has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term. It is expected to continue a weak and narrow - range shock trend [19]. - Soda ash: The industry supply remains high, and demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the price is expected to be stable and weak [21].

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract declined by 0.06%. With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [7][10] 2. Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China emphasizes adjusting monetary policy according to economic and financial conditions and maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicits opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", with strict regulations on steel capacity replacement ratios in different regions [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $96.95 per ton, an increase of $4.23 per ton from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's were 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [18][22] 4. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, and the procurement volume of wire rods and screws at Shanghai terminals, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided content [23][26][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan per ton. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14,423.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.32 tons; the daily port clearance volume was 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons; the number of ships at the port was 107, a decrease of 17. In mid - October, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed a mixed trend, and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44% and a year - on - year increase of 2.57%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% and a year - on - year increase of 1.46%; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.32%; the daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 42,100 tons. In September 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 1.6% year - on - year to 141.8 million tons, and China's steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [31][32][33] 6. Future Outlook - With the high - level decline in hot metal production, the supply - demand outlook for iron ore is expected to weaken marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and there is a lack of upward drivers. Overall, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [34] 7. Operational Strategies - Unilateral: Try short positions lightly at high points within the range. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [35]

Group 1: Report Summary - This is an iron ore morning report from the Black Team of the Research Center dated October 27, 2025, presenting the latest prices, daily and weekly changes, and other data for various iron ore varieties and exchange contracts [1] Group 2: Spot Market Data Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: price 775, daily change -5, weekly change 1, converted to futures price 829.2, import profit -28.20 [1] - PB powder: price 778, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 825.0, import profit -23.98 [1] - Macarthur powder: price 775, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 846.5, import profit 2.36 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 746, daily change -5, weekly change -2, converted to futures price 838.8, import profit 6.77 [1] - Mixed powder: price 747, daily change -3, weekly change 2, converted to futures price 877.6, import profit 2.53 [1] - Super Special powder: price 702, daily change -3, weekly change -3, converted to futures price 918.9, import profit 3.66 [1] - Carajás fines: price 901, daily change -6, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 847.0, import profit -10.17 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian blend: price 815, daily change -1, weekly change 5, converted to futures price 829.8, import profit -11.37 [1] - IOC6: price 779, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 854.5 [1] - SSFG: price 784, daily change -5, weekly change 0 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: price 900, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 987.0 [1] - 61% Indian fines: price 735, daily change -5, weekly change -2 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 900, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 922.7 [1] - Roy Hill fines: price 765, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 842.1, import profit 3.78 [1] - KUMBA fines: price 837, daily change -5, weekly change 0, converted to futures price 828.1 [1] - 57% Indian fines: price 637, daily change -3, weekly change -1 [1] - Atlas fines: price 742, daily change -3, weekly change 2 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 1021, daily change 0, weekly change 8, converted to futures price 908.0 [1] Group 3: Exchange Contract Data Dalian Commodity Exchange - i2601: price 771.0, daily change -6.0, weekly change 0.0, monthly spread -41.0 [1] - i2605: price 750.5, daily change -5.5, weekly change 0.5, monthly spread 20.5 [1] - i2609: price 730.0, daily change -5.0, weekly change 1.5, monthly spread 20.5 [1] Singapore Exchange - FE01: price 101.20, daily change 0.25, weekly change -0.35, monthly spread -4.12 [1] - FE05: price 99.27, daily change 0.32, weekly change -0.01, monthly spread 1.93 [1] - FE09: price 97.08, daily change 0.20, weekly change 0.02, monthly spread 2.19 [1]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货铁矿石周报 钢厂盈利大幅下滑，铁矿弱势运行 20251026 作者：曾可 从业资格号：F03118676 0769-22116880 交易咨询号：Z0022773 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615，交易咨询号：Z0010771 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 供应：最近一期全球铁矿发运量有所回升。2025年10月13日-10月19日，全球铁矿石发运总量环比增加126万吨至3333.5万 吨。其中，澳洲19港发运1915.6万吨，周环比增61.6万吨；巴西19港发运824.3万吨，周环比增11.8万吨；非主流地区发运 有所回升，周环比增52.5万吨至593.5万吨。不过，国内港口外矿到港量有所回落，2025年10月13日-10月19日，中国45港 到港量环比减少526.4吨至2519.4万吨；本轮北方六港到港总量为1203.2万吨，周环比降220.3万吨。铁矿发运环比回升， 近端到港量环比大幅下滑。 ◆ 需求：截至2025年10月24日，MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂盈利率47.62%，较前周下降7.79%；钢厂高炉开工率84.71%，较前周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the suppression of industrial chain profits and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although the downward space for downstream steel mill profits is limited and the iron water output has shown a downward inflection point, the strengthening of the coking coal and coke sectors has further eroded the industrial chain profits. However, potential macro - level positive factors may still materialize, so the iron ore price should be treated as fluctuating [3][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Overseas shipments are relatively high year - on - year. Australian high - frequency shipment data shows both year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The global shipment volume in the recent week was 3333.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.0 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 446.2 million tons. Australian shipments were 1915.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 184.0 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 824.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 95.2 million tons. The shipments of Rio Tinto and Fortescue to China have increased significantly recently [4][5][15]. - Among non - mainstream mines, South African shipments have shown a seasonal decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, bringing the overall operation back to a relatively normal level [20][27]. Demand - The iron water output has shown a downward trend at the inflection point, and the port cargo clearance volume has also declined recently. The iron water output of 247 enterprises was 239.90 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 5.54 million tons. Recently, the price fluctuations of scrap steel and iron ore have been narrow, and the scrap - iron price difference has basically remained flat [4][29][33]. Inventory - The accumulation speed of port inventory has accelerated. The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14423.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 845.5 million tons [4][37][39]. Contract and Price Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 771.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 566,000 lots, an increase of 20,200 lots. The average daily trading volume was 281,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 88,200 lots. The spot price basically remained flat week - on - week [7][11]. Downstream Profit - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, and the paper profit has been revised downwards [41]. Spot Category Spread - The inventory of fine ore has decreased recently, and the spread between PB lump and PB fine has slowly narrowed [43]. Futures Month Spread - The recent month spread has been relatively stable [48]. Basis Performance - The recent changes in futures and spot prices have been relatively consistent, and the basis has basically remained flat week - on - week [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a medium - term bearish outlook for unilateral trading, and recommends a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The current demand shows a continuous weakening trend in the domestic market while overseas steel consumption maintains high growth. The high valuation of iron ore prices is unsustainable due to the rapid decline in domestic terminal demand. With the change in the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore and the suppression of tariff disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to be weak [3][28] Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Market Situation**: This week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and market expectations remained weak. The global iron ore shipment volume remained at a high level, and the supply increase continued. Non - mainstream ore shipments remained high, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to contribute to the increase, but the growth rate may slow down [3] - **Demand Analysis**: In September, China's economic data further weakened. From July to September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was around - 5%. In September, the manufacturing industry continued to operate at a low level, which greatly suppressed domestic terminal steel demand. Overseas, from January to September, the consumption of iron elements increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10.5% year - on - year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [3][28] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is mainly bearish in the medium term; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - **Global Shipment Volume**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 30.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%/1.9 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%/3.6 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 7.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%/10 million tons. The overall supply of the top four mines has increased by 5 million tons year - on - year since the beginning of the year. In the first three quarters, the total output of the top four mines was 852 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%/10 million tons, and the total shipment volume was 830 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%/1 million tons [15] - **Non - mainstream Ore**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%/12.5 million tons. The shipments of non - mainstream ore are expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase may slow down. A $10 increase in the average price of the Platts Index corresponds to an increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production (annualized) [16][17] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of imported iron ore ports continued to increase. Since August, the total inventory of domestic iron elements has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons. From the perspective of supply - demand deduction, the molten iron output is expected to decline from its high level in the fourth quarter, and the decrease in domestic iron element inventory may mainly occur through significant production cuts by steel mills [23][26] Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: From the third quarter of 2025 to the present, domestic molten iron output has increased by 4.1%/11 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel output has increased by 4.1%/13.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 7.2%/9 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 1%/1 million tons year - on - year. The domestic crude steel consumption (excluding direct exports) has decreased by 3.5%/10 million tons year - on - year. The manufacturing steel consumption has changed from a year - on - year increase of over 7% in the first half of the year to a year - on - year negative growth in the third quarter, which suppresses the current terminal steel demand [28] - **Overseas Demand**: From January to September, the overseas consumption of iron elements increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10.5% year - on - year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased week - on - week and were at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both grew, with FMG showing strong shipment momentum, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries slightly recovered. However, the near - end arrivals decreased week - on - week. [11][13][14] - The latest average daily hot metal output dropped below 2.4 million tons, mainly affected by weak steel prices, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production. The contradiction between high hot metal output and terminal demand was gradually realized, leading to a decrease in hot metal output. [13][14] - Port inventories continued to increase, and steel mill inventories showed a slight increase. Fundamentally, after the decline in hot metal output, the demand for iron ore weakened, port inventories continued to accumulate, and prices were under pressure. [13][14] - Macroscopically, the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session was officially released, and attention should be paid to the details of the "14th Five - Year Plan". A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations has begun. If positive signals are released, it may further improve market sentiment. Overall, the reality is weak, and the tug - of - war of macro - expectations still exists, so iron ore prices will fluctuate. [13][14] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The latest global iron ore shipments totaled 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 28.25 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94 million tons. Australian shipments were 19.845 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.682 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 17.291 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.446 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.258 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. [13] - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.79 percentage points. [13] - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0725 million tons. [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder price difference was 122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder price difference was 162 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 6.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was 23.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a change of - 0.51 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.33%, a change of - 0.03 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.55%, a change of + 0.55 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. [25] - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 47.62%, a change of - 7.79 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 24.26 yuan/wet ton. [28] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 144.2359 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.4532 million tons. The pellet inventory was 272,170 tons, a week - on - week change of + 10,380 tons. [35] - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.13289 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.12966 million tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.92357 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.13952 million tons. [38] - The Australian ore port inventory was 5.935 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06527 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 5.77143 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.08743 million tons. [41] - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills this week was 9.07919 million tons, a change of + 0.09646 million tons from the previous week. [46] 3.4 Supply Side - The volume of Australian shipments to China through 19 ports in the latest period was 16.602 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 1.345 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 8.243 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.118 million tons. [51] - Rio Tinto's shipments to China in the latest period were 5.628 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.574 million tons. BHP Billiton's shipments to China were 4.196 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.817 million tons. [54] - Vale's shipments in the latest period were 6.362 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.355 million tons. FMG's shipments to China were 4.469 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. [57] - The arrivals at 45 ports in the latest period were 25.194 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.264 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports in China in September were 18.5836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6846 million tons. [60] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the latest period was 60.59%, a week - on - week change of - 0.07 percentage points. The average daily output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 47,350 tons, a week - on - week change of - 20 tons. [66] 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic average daily hot metal output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0105 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a week - on - week change of - 0.39 percentage points. [71] - The average daily port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1265 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0307 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9646 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0089 million tons. [74] 3.6 Basis As of October 24, the calculated basis of iron ore BRBF was 68.08 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 8.11%. [79]

Core Viewpoint - Mount Gibson Iron Limited (MGI) announced a significant rockfall incident at its Koolan Island iron ore mine, leading to the suspension of mining activities in the affected area [1][2] Group 1: Incident Details - The rockfall occurred on October 16, 2025, in the main pit area of the Koolan Island operation [1] - MGI stated that due to safety risks and the limited remaining mining life of the Koolan operation, remediation and recovery of mining activities in the affected area are deemed unfeasible [1] Group 2: Operational Impact - Mining activities at the Koolan operation have been suspended, but processing of available ore stockpiles will continue to meet recent shipping commitments [2] - MGI has notified the group that several shipments originally scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be delayed [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern of steel. The peak season is ending, and if demand falls in the off - season, steel mills may increase production cuts. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5][63]. - Iron ore prices are also expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The market is concerned about whether steel mills will reduce production, which may lead to a decline in hot metal production. The supply of iron ore has some changes, and the production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter are different with limited expected increase in the fourth quarter [5][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the 14th Five - Year Plan. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [5]. - **Key Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3%. The central bank kept the one - year and five - year LPR unchanged. In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - **Main Views**: Steel prices were weak this week due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations improved the external environment, domestic economic growth slowed in September. The steel fundamentals are still weak, and attention should be paid to whether steel mills will cut production. Iron ore prices were also weak due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production, with changes in supply and demand [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **For Steel (Thread)**: Bullish factors include the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session, Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, high steel exports, and the decline in hot - rolled coil inventory. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September and the approaching end of the peak demand season [8]. - **For Iron Ore**: Bullish factors are the emphasis on industries and expanding domestic demand in the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Bearish factors are the weak domestic demand in September, the approaching end of the peak demand season, the decline in hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Macro**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session were held. The external environment is expected to improve. However, domestic economic growth slowed in the third quarter, with GDP increasing by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. The growth of social consumer goods and fixed - asset investment slowed down [10][15]. - **Terminal**: In September, exports increased by 8.3% year - on - year, mainly due to the low base and the relatively resilient global demand. Steel exports were still high but faced challenges. In September, automobile production and sales reached a record high, and new energy vehicles continued to be the main growth driver. Excavator production continued to grow, and the construction machinery industry was booming [16][21][27]. - **(Thread) Spot**: The spot price of thread fluctuated slightly, and the basis changed little [28]. - **Supply**: In September, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; steel production was 124.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% [32]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills decreased by 7.79 percentage points to 47.62% this week [33]. - **Output**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.44 percentage points to 84.71%, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99 percentage points to 67.86%. The production of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil increased slightly [35][37]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil continued to recover this week [39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five building materials, thread, and hot - rolled coil decreased this week, showing a trend of de - stocking [43]. - **Spread**: The spread between hot - rolled coil and thread widened [44]. - **(Iron Ore) Spot**: The spot price of iron ore increased slightly, and the basis fluctuated within a narrow range [46]. - **Import and Shipment**: In September, China imported 116.326 million tons of iron ore, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. From October 13th to 19th, the global iron ore shipment increased [50]. - **Shipment**: The production and sales of the four major mines in the third quarter were different, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [51]. - **Arrival**: From October 13th to 19th, the arrival of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased [54]. - **Hot Metal Production**: The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.05 tons this week [55]. - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports increased by 145.32 tons this week, and the daily average port clearance volume decreased [59]. - **Steel Mill Consumption and Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 96.47 tons this week, the daily consumption decreased by 0.89 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 0.42 days [61]. 3.4后市研判 - Steel prices are expected to continue weak and volatile due to the weak supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to demand changes and whether steel mills will cut production [63]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term due to concerns about the decline in hot metal production and the accumulation of port inventory [65].