2025年11月17日，中国宏桥（1378.HK）完成定价15亿美元（116.8亿港元）先旧后新配售，本项目亦为 今年以来香港资本市场第三大规模的新股配售。中信建投证券作为联席全球协调人及配售代理，助力公 司顺利完成本次发行。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：中信建投证券投行委） 中国宏桥 中信建投证券 本次基础发行规模为12亿美元，簿记启动后获得国际和国内主权基金、顶级长线基金和多策略基金热烈 追捧，最终发行规模上调至15亿美元，充分印证了市场对中国宏桥投资价值的高度认可。 坚守金融服务实体经济的根本宗旨 中信建投证券坚守金融服务实体经济的根本宗旨，依托"行业+区域+产品"的矩阵服务模式，协助中国 宏桥及下属子公司完成了多个资本运作项目，强化我国在全球有色金属产业链中的重要地位，服务客户 不断提升创新力和竞争力，书写金融助力实体经济的新篇章。 全球领先的铝产品制造商 中国宏桥是一家全球特大型铝生产企业和全球领先的铝产品制造商。公司成功构建了铝土矿、氧化铝、 电解铝及铝深加工一体化铝产业链，形成了显著的抗风险能力、成本控制能力等核心竞争力，是全球少 数几家具有完整一体化铝产业链优势的综合性铝生产、制造和销售企业。 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the aluminum industry for the upcoming year, driven by strong global demand growth, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Industry Summary - Anticipated new supply from Indonesia is expected to create a moderate supply surplus by 2026, but potential supply disruption risks and a slower pace of overseas capacity restart may lead to tighter market supply than baseline forecasts [1] - The recent surge in aluminum prices, surpassing 21,000 yuan per ton, is expected to sustain profit momentum in the coming quarters [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley raised the target price for China Aluminum A-shares from 10 yuan to 13 yuan and H-shares from 8 HKD to 12.5 HKD, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - China Hongqiao's target price was increased from 26.5 HKD to 34 HKD, also with an "Overweight" rating [1] - The earnings forecast for China Aluminum for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted upward by 3% to 19%, reflecting a more optimistic view on prices and profit margins [1]

Core Insights - The construction of the 500,000-ton green low-carbon alloy aluminum liquid smelting and sharing center project in Guangyuan has entered its final stage, expected to be operational in one month, enhancing regional aluminum supply and reducing energy consumption across the production chain [1] - Guangyuan aims to become a major hub for aluminum production, targeting an annual output value of 100 billion yuan in the aluminum industry by 2027, with a focus on green and recycled aluminum [4] Group 1: Project Developments - The first phase of the aluminum liquid project is designed to produce 300,000 tons annually, alleviating supply pressures in the region [1] - Guangyuan has established a trading center for aluminum ingots and a designated delivery warehouse for aluminum futures, facilitating resource supply for the aluminum industry [3] Group 2: Industry Growth and Employment - The new cable project initiated by Hengtong Group in Guangyuan, with an investment of 1.2 billion yuan, is expected to generate annual sales of approximately 3 billion yuan and create over 300 jobs [2] - Guangyuan's aluminum industry is evolving towards new materials, with products like lightweight aluminum cables and high-precision aluminum sheets being developed for various applications [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Investments - Guangyuan's goal is to have over 150 aluminum-based enterprises by 2027, with a production value exceeding 100 billion yuan, and to establish a comprehensive aluminum trading, processing, and logistics center [4] - The city is focusing on attracting investments in projects related to automotive lightweighting, green recycling, and aluminum templates for construction [4] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Guangyuan is collaborating with research institutions to enhance aluminum technology and promote the transformation of research achievements into practical applications [5] - The expected annual output value of Guangyuan's aluminum-based new materials is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from previous years [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The aluminum industry is heavily reliant on imported bauxite, with China importing 158 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, primarily from Guinea (70%) [1][18] - China is the largest producer of alumina globally, with a production capacity of 85.52 million tons in 2024, accounting for 56% of global output [1][19] - The electrolytic aluminum production in China is constrained by carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies, limiting capacity to around 45 million tons [1][15] Core Insights and Arguments - The production of electrolytic aluminum is energy-intensive, consuming approximately 13,000 to 14,000 kWh per ton [1][13] - The price of electrolytic aluminum has stabilized around 20,000 yuan per ton due to supply-side reforms initiated in 2017, which addressed previous overcapacity issues [1][20] - The cost structure of electrolytic aluminum production is significantly influenced by alumina and electricity, with recent market dynamics driven more by supply-demand relationships rather than costs [1][21] Market Dynamics - The downstream demand for aluminum has shifted, with transportation and electricity sectors accounting for 43% of total aluminum usage in 2024, overtaking the real estate sector [1][22] - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, is a significant driver of aluminum demand due to its lightweight properties, although it increases manufacturing costs [1][17] Supply Chain and Production Methods - The aluminum supply chain consists of several stages, starting from bauxite mining to alumina production and finally to aluminum processing [1][4] - The primary method for alumina production is the Bayer process, which is categorized into high-temperature and low-temperature methods based on the type of bauxite used [1][6][7] Competitive Landscape - As of the end of 2023, China's alumina production capacity reached 100 million tons, with the top five companies accounting for 33% of the market share [1][12] - The production costs of alumina vary by region due to differences in local resource availability and transportation costs [1][11] Risks and Challenges - China's reliance on imported bauxite poses potential supply risks, particularly due to political instability in supplier countries like Guinea [1][18] - The electrolytic aluminum industry faces challenges from stringent environmental regulations and the need for technological innovation to maintain competitiveness [1][11] Additional Insights - The introduction of new futures products like ADC12 aluminum alloy provides companies with risk management tools, reflecting the evolving market landscape [1][16] - The overall stability of the aluminum market is influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has affected supply chains and pricing [1][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a recent pullback in China Hongqiao's stock, JPMorgan sees this as a buying opportunity for investors and maintains a constructive outlook on the aluminum industry for 2026 [1] - JPMorgan has upgraded its target price for China Hongqiao from HKD 26.5 to HKD 34, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] - The positive outlook for the aluminum industry in 2026 is supported by resilient global demand, rising copper prices, and healthy smelting profit margins [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's base case predicts a moderate surplus in 2026 due to new supply from Indonesia, but potential supply disruption risks and slower overseas restart rates may tighten the market beyond their base case [1] - The firm remains optimistic about aluminum stocks, forecasting earnings growth of 10-16% for the fiscal year 2026, and believes that China Hongqiao's valuation is currently undervalued [1] - China Hongqiao, as a significant producer in the Chinese aluminum industry, is expected to benefit from these trends while maintaining healthy margin profits due to its low production cost advantage [1] Group 3 - Another factor supporting JPMorgan's positive view on China Hongqiao is its demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend yield exceeding 6% providing solid support for the stock price [1]

另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受益，维持健 康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入 良机，该行对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5 港元上调至34港元。 ...

Group 1 - The appointment of Zhou Dong as the General Manager of Huanghe Company was announced during a meeting held by the State Power Investment Corporation on November 19 [1] - The Huanghe Company is a large comprehensive energy enterprise controlled by the State Power Investment Corporation, established in October 1999, primarily engaged in power station development, production operation management, and the production and sales of silicon products and solar power equipment [3] - As of now, Huanghe Company has a total installed power capacity of 34,623.2 MW, with 19 hydropower stations in various regions, including the Yellow River and Jialing River, totaling an installed capacity of 1,314.24 MW [3][4] Group 2 - The company is planning to construct the Gonghe (Duolong), Zhongning pumped storage power station, and Cihaxia hydropower station [3] - Huanghe Company is developing photovoltaic and wind power projects in Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Heilongjiang, with a clean energy installed capacity accounting for 92.43%, including 1,351.52 MW of photovoltaic and 534.56 MW of wind power [3] - The company has an annual production capacity of 3,300 tons of electronic-grade polysilicon, 1,100 MW of solar cells, 625 MW of modules, 600,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 300,000 tons of carbon products [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd., announced its plan to continue commodity hedging activities in 2026 to mitigate price volatility risks associated with aluminum and related products, with a maximum margin amount not exceeding 400 million RMB or equivalent foreign currency [1][2]. Group 1: Hedging Business Overview - The hedging business focuses on core products in the aluminum industry chain, aiming to reduce price volatility risks and enhance performance stability [2]. - The trading instruments include standardized futures contracts and options traded on approved domestic exchanges [2]. - The funding source for the hedging activities will be the company's own funds, with a trading period set from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [2]. Group 2: Risk Management Measures - The company has identified five major categories of risks associated with the hedging activities, including market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, internal control deficiencies, and technical system failures [2]. - Six risk control measures have been established, including strengthening internal audit supervision and regularly reviewing the execution of trading plans [2][4]. Group 3: Business Stability and Market Context - As a veteran in the aluminum industry, the company aims to address the challenges posed by price fluctuations in alumina and electrolytic aluminum, which have been affected by supply-demand dynamics and energy costs since 2025 [3]. - By locking in raw material procurement costs and product sales prices, the company expects to smooth out performance volatility [3]. - The company emphasizes adherence to the principle of "hedging aligned with core business" and will not engage in derivative trading unrelated to its production operations [3].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry is set to launch its global IPO on November 14, with pricing expected on November 20 and listing on November 24, marking a significant milestone for the company and the third spin-off IPO in Hong Kong this year [1] Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO price range is set between HKD 10.18 and HKD 10.99 per share, with a base issuance of 500 million shares, leading to a total issuance scale of HKD 50.9 billion to HKD 55.0 billion [1] - If the green shoe option is fully exercised, the total issuance could reach HKD 58.5 billion to HKD 63.2 billion [1] Group 2: Cornerstone Investors - The IPO has attracted significant attention, with 17 well-known institutions participating as cornerstone investors, totaling an investment of USD 326 million, which accounts for 49.8% of the base issuance scale [2] - Hillhouse Capital is the largest investor with USD 75 million, representing 11.5% of the issuance scale [3] - Other notable investors include domestic private equity firms and foreign institutions, highlighting strong confidence in the company's value [3][4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite a strong cornerstone investor lineup, Innovation Industry's historical performance shows a significant disparity compared to peers, with revenue growth from 2022 to 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% [6] - The company reported revenues of CNY 134.9 billion, CNY 138.1 billion, CNY 151.6 billion, and CNY 72.1 billion for the years 2022 to 2025 (first five months), with a year-on-year growth of 22.6% in the first five months of 2025 [6][8] - Net profit figures for the same periods were CNY 9.1 billion, CNY 10.8 billion, CNY 26.3 billion, and CNY 8.6 billion, with a CAGR of 70% from 2022 to 2024, but a decline of 14.4% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Dependency on Related Parties - The company shows a high dependency on related parties, with revenue from related party Innovation New Materials accounting for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, respectively [9][10] - Although the percentage is decreasing, the reliance on related parties remains a concern for long-term sustainability [9] Group 5: Internationalization and Future Prospects - Innovation Industry's internationalization efforts are still in the planning stage, with a projected investment of HKD 21.8 billion in a joint venture for a 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, expected to start construction by the end of 2026 [11] - Compared to peers like Nanshan Aluminum International, which has established a strong market presence in Southeast Asia, Innovation Industry's international business remains limited [11][12] Group 6: Valuation and Market Position - If priced at the lower end of the IPO range, the total market capitalization would be HKD 20.4 billion, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.5 times for 2024 [13][14] - In comparison, peers like China Hongqiao have higher P/E ratios, indicating that Innovation Industry's valuation may not be particularly attractive when considering its growth quality and market position [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Iceland's central bank unexpectedly lowered its interest rate to 7.25%, the lowest in over two years, due to a slowdown in economic growth and easing inflation concerns [2][5]. Economic Conditions - The central bank's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to reduce the 7-day deposit rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. Market participants had generally expected the rate to remain unchanged [5]. - The central bank anticipates that inflation will decline faster than previously assumed, with signs of a turning point in economic activity becoming more evident [5][7]. - The economy is expected to contract again in the third quarter following a decline in the second quarter, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.9% for this year and 1.6% for 2026, significantly lower than earlier forecasts [6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite a cumulative rate cut of 175 basis points since October of the previous year, inflation accelerated to 4.3% in October, the highest level since January [6][7]. - The central bank's survey indicates that market participants expect average inflation to remain around 3% over the next 5 to 10 years [6]. - The central bank noted that the turmoil in the mortgage market, exacerbated by a recent court ruling halting some housing loans, could tighten borrowing conditions and financial environments further [5][7]. Future Outlook - The decision to lower rates was partly to counteract the tightening effects on household borrowing conditions and the financial environment [7]. - Future rate cuts will depend on clear signals of inflation moving towards the central bank's target of 2.5% [8].