Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have significantly weakened recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, polyester demand still has resilience, and the transmission speed of terminal negative feedback is slower than expected. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main recent gaming point will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the market's expectation of trade dispute mitigation, expected import reduction in May and June, and high polyester load with a slight reduction in filament inventory and eased inventory pressure. Negative factors include the impact of US tariff hikes on terminal textile and clothing export demand and high hidden inventory in ethylene glycol factories [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Interval Forecast - **Price Ranges**: The monthly price ranges are 3900 - 4500 for ethylene glycol, 5800 - 6600 for PX, 4100 - 4800 for PTA, and 5400 - 6100 for bottle chips [2]. - **Volatility and Percentiles**: The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips, with their 3 - year historical percentiles being 91.3%, 99.4%, 93.6%, and 98.6% respectively [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, strategies include short - selling ethylene glycol futures (25% at 4250 - 4350), buying put options (50% at 70 - 90) and selling call options (50% at 90 - 110) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, strategies include buying ethylene glycol futures (50% at 4000 - 4100), selling put options (75% at 130 - 150) [2]. Price and Spread Data - **Prices**: From April 21 to April 28, 2025, prices of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX contracts, PTA contracts, etc., showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil rose from 65.3 to 65.8 dollars per barrel [5][8]. - **Spreads**: There were also changes in various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, etc. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread changed from 56 to - 60 yuan per ton [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: PTA, MEG, and PX warehouse receipts also changed. For example, PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 131530 to 109778 [8]. - **Processing Fees and Profits**: Processing fees and profits of different products showed different trends. For example, POY profit increased from - 2 to 11 yuan per ton, while DTY profit decreased from 125 to 75 yuan per ton [8]. - **Sales Ratios**: The sales ratios of polyester filament and short - fiber also changed. The polyester filament sales ratio increased from 35.8% to 94.7%, while the polyester short - fiber sales ratio decreased from 87% to 74% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current trading core of the domestic market is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. The A-share market's sensitivity to tariff policies has weakened, and domestic policies are expected to act according to tariff game progress and economic data. Before a change occurs, the volatile market is likely to continue. With the decline in trading volume today, the market sentiment is cautious, and the market is expected to remain cautious during the three - trading - day week before the holiday, with the stock index maintaining a volatile trend [6] Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, all others closed down. The turnover of the two markets decreased by 572.58 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH rose with shrinking volume, while other varieties fell with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized the central bank's independence from political intervention. The Fed is in a quiet period, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for the third time. The IMF lowered the forecast of Asia's GDP growth rate to 3.9% this year and warned of further downward risks [5] - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 1509.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The National Development and Reform Commission said it has rich policy reserves and will speed up the implementation of measures to stabilize employment and the economy, with most policies to be implemented in the second quarter [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.52% | -0.97% | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.872 | 3.6602 | 6.8008 | 18.786 | | Trading volume change | -1.3541 | -0.7492 | -1.2934 | -3.8222 | | Open interest | 244031 | 78966 | 199764 | 315511 | | Open interest change | -1592 | -3111 | -5259 | -7247 | [7][8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.20 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.62 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.30 | | Turnover of the two markets (billion yuan) | 10563.09 | | Turnover change (billion yuan) | -572.58 | [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Trades on long - term demand with a pessimistic outlook. There is still inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches, and the industry chain is expected to face over - supply pressure. The supply side remains at a low - level fluctuation, marginal production lines are in a loss state, and the cost of petroleum coke has slightly increased. However, there is still ignition expectation on the supply side, demand improvement is limited, production and sales are weak, and coal - gas cost has decreased [3]. -纯碱: The industry chain still has profits, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand and over - supply is difficult to reverse. Maintenance can only cause short - term disturbances. In May, there are more factory maintenance activities than in April, increasing supply disturbances. Rigid demand is stable, photovoltaic demand has improved, and exports continue to exceed expectations, alleviating domestic over - supply pressure. However, daily production is at a high level, new production capacity is being put into operation, and social inventory is at an absolute historical high [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Category Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.52% and a historical percentile of 77.1% in the past 3 years.纯碱 price is predicted to be in the range of 1200 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.66% and a historical percentile of 10.9% in the past 3 years [2]. Hedging Strategies - **Glass Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1250 - 1300, and sell FG509C1400 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy FG2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1050 - 1100, and sell FG509P1060 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 50 - 70 [2]. - **纯碱 Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1450 - 1500, and sell SA509C1500 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35. For those with low procurement inventory, they can buy SA2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 1200 - 1250, and sell SA509P1200 put options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. Price and Basis Data - **Glass**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1078, 1122, and 1172 respectively, with daily increases of 0.37%, 0.09%, and 0.43%. The average price of沙河 glass delivery products was 1236.4, with a daily increase of 1.8 [4][5]. - **纯碱**: On April 28, 2025, the prices of纯碱 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1319, 1364, and 1368 respectively, with daily decreases of 0.15%, 0.07%, and 0.51%. The heavy - alkali market prices in North China, South China, and other regions remained unchanged, and the light - alkali market prices also remained stable [6][7][8].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2506 | AG2506 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/4/25 | 3305. 65 | 33. 45 | 3316. 10 | 33. 73 | 787. 20 | 8280.00 | 785. 39 | 8272. 00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据 ...

剧，短线参与为主。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 菜籽系产业日报 2025-04-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9333 | -173 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2641 | -43 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 187 321336 | 32 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -29808 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 242 557196 | -10 -8955 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 17062 | -14629 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -22485 | -18944 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 1357 | -277 ...

戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 周度产业链价格总览： | | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 | | 2358 | 2330 | 28 | 2516 | -158 | 1-5价差 | -13 | -13 | | -46 | 33 | | 05合约 | | 2371 | 2343 | 28 | 2562 | -191 | 5-9价差 | 83 | 85 | -2 | 121 | -38 | | 09合约 | | 2288 | 2258 | 30 | 2441 | -153 | 9-1价差 | -70 | -72 | L 2 | -75 | ട | | | | | | | | 国内市场 | | | | | | | | | | 今日 | 上周 | 間 : : | 上月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot index of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for European routes rebounded, while that for the US West routes dropped significantly. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise slightly, while the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) continued to decline slightly [2][8]. - The futures price trend this week was affected by the negative sentiment brought by the tariff policy and the decline of the spot cabin quotes on European routes in May, which was lower than market expectations. In the short - term, without progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiations, EC may mainly show a slightly downward oscillating trend, but the possibility of a short - term rebound from the low level should also be vigilant [2]. - The current contradiction between the futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing to find new trading opportunities. They can also temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy - **Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy**: The current contradiction between futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing to find new trading opportunities [3]. - **Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy**: Temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [4]. 3.2 Market Review - As of Friday, except for EC2506 and 2508, the closing prices and settlement prices of other monthly contracts rebounded slightly. The closing price of EC2506 decreased by 10.95% compared with the previous week, closing at 1365.1 points, and the settlement price decreased by 11.50%, closing at 1376.2 points. The main influencing factors this week were the tariff policy and the spot price [4]. 3.3 Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of April 21, the SCFIS European route index rebounded with a month - on - month increase of 7.57%, while the US West route freight rate dropped significantly with a month - on - month decrease of 13.82%. As of April 25, the CCFI continued to rise slightly, while the SCFI and NCFI continued to decline slightly [8]. - In terms of different routes, the North American routes rebounded slightly. The SCFI US West route increased by 1.81% month - on - month, and the SCFI US East route increased by 0.18% month - on - month, while the SCFI European route continued to decline with a month - on - month decrease of 4.26% [8]. 3.4 Spot Information - Supply Side - As of April 24, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 2.1%. The idle capacity of container ships over 17000 TEU was 17816 TEU, accounting for 0.4% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships was 43226 TEU, accounting for 0.6% of this type of ships [29]. - The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 46.4 thousand TEU compared with last week, closing at 411.0 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port decreased by 4.0 thousand TEU, closing at 265.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port decreased by 1.5 thousand TEU, closing at 107.9 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port decreased by 19.9 thousand TEU, closing at 94.5 thousand TEU [32]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - **Spot - Futures Basis**: The SCFIS European route index rebounded by 7.57%, reaching 1508.44 points. The basis of the main contract EC2506 increased by 281.09 points compared with the previous week, reaching - 13.56 points, and then turned from negative to positive. The increase in the spot - futures basis mainly came from the continuous decline of the futures price. Currently, the contradiction between the futures and spot price differences is not significant, and traders should keep observing [34]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The spread of the EC2504 - EC2506 contract combination was 75.5 points, the spread of the EC2504 - EC2508 contract combination was - 172.4 points, and the spread of the EC2506 - EC2508 contract combination was - 247.9 points. The back structure of the 04 and 06 contracts deepened. Traders can temporarily wait and observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 06 - 08 contracts [39].

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海4月27日电（林郑宏）4月25日，弘业期货发布了2025年一季报。截至目前，4家A股上市期货公司中， 永安期货、南华期货均已发布一季报，仅剩下瑞达期货尚未披露。 从三家期货公司的一季度业绩来看，业绩分化较为明显，行业龙头永安期货业绩更是持续承压。 南华期货营收同比下滑，但净利同比略微增长。从一季度净利绝对数值来看，也明显高于其它两家公司。南华期货 在一季报中中表示，营收"腰斩"主要2025年开始对大宗商品交易等业务采用净额法确认收入。不过该项变动对净利 润不产生影响。 | 46.8 | 名称 | 营收(万元) | 营收同比增长 营收单季度环 | | 净利(万元) | | 净利同比增 净利单季度环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 率(%) | 比增长率(%) | | 长率(%) | 増长率(%) | | 001236.SZ | 弘明崇 | 64268.22 | 259.09 | -27.65 | 120.32 | 109.07 | -91.03 | | 600927.SH | 永安期货 | 22 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Futures reported a significant decline in revenue for Q1 2025, with a 46.2% year-on-year drop to 534 million yuan, while net profit saw a slight increase of 0.13% to 85.7383 million yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - The revenue decline is attributed to the adoption of net method for revenue recognition in commodity trading, which does not affect net profit [2] - Core business performance is under pressure, with net commission income down 22.7% to 107 million yuan and net interest income down 20.5% to 143 million yuan [2] - Other business income fell by 60.9% to 270 million yuan, a decrease of 420 million yuan year-on-year [2] Wealth Management - As of the end of Q1, the asset management scale of Nanhua Fund decreased to 11.806 billion yuan, a drop of 45.2% year-on-year, primarily due to market fluctuations in the bond sector [2] Cost Management - The company managed to reduce management expenses from 172 million yuan to 156 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin increase of 3.52% to 32% [2] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow saw a drastic decline of 354% to -11.758 billion yuan, with cash outflows related to operations increasing significantly [3] IPO and Capital Strategy - Nanhua Futures is accelerating its IPO process in Hong Kong, having submitted its application on April 17, aiming to enhance its capital structure and competitiveness in overseas markets [4] - The company views its overseas business as a crucial growth area, with overseas revenue reaching 654 million yuan in 2024, a 15.32% increase [4] - Since its A-share listing in 2019, Nanhua Futures has raised capital multiple times to support its expansion, including a recent 1.2 billion yuan convertible bond issuance plan [4][5] Overall Business Outlook - Despite profit growth, overall revenue has been declining, indicating a need for capital replenishment to expand overseas market operations [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a stock index daily report dated April 25, 2025, written by Wang Mengying and Liao Chenyue [3] - The market showed a pattern of mixed index performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Shenzhen Component Index up, and increased trading volume [4][9] - The key information includes the release of the 2025 version of the Market Access Negative List and the Politburo meeting on April 25 [5] Group 2: Core View - The Politburo meeting's tone met market expectations but lacked substantial incremental policy stimulus, leading to a weakening of the stock index after the release of the meeting content [6] - The core of the domestic market trading is policy expectations and external tariff disturbances. A-shares are less sensitive to tariff policies, and domestic policies are likely to act according to tariff negotiations and economic data. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [6] Group 3: Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Group 4: Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IC, and IM rose, while IH fell. IF had reduced trading volume, IH had increased trading volume, and IC and IM also had increased trading volume [4][8] - The trading volume of IF was 82,261 lots, IH was 44,094 lots, IC was 80,942 lots, and IM was 226,082 lots [8] - The positions of IF decreased by 1,275 lots, IH increased by 1,992 lots, IC increased by 1,475 lots, and IM increased by 6,288 lots [8] Group 5: Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.39%, and the ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.20 [9] - The total trading volume of the two markets was 111.3567 billion yuan, with an increase of 454.8 million yuan compared to the previous day [9]