事 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 金属价格涨跌互现，关注细分领域投资机遇 有色金属行业事件点评 件 2025 年 7 月 21 日 分析师：许正堃（SAC 执业证书编号：S0340523120001） 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱：xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 点 评 事件： 当前，有色金属内部金属价格表现分化，部分小金属及能源金属价格逐步上行。截至7月18日， 稀土价格指数收于192.24，较7月初回升10.23；截至7月14日，电池级碳酸锂价格收于6.48万元/吨， 较6月初回升0.44万元；工业级碳酸锂价格收于6.30万元/吨，较6月初回升0.45万元；截至7月18日， COMEX白银价格收于38.42美元/盎司，较7月初上涨2.18美元；COMEX金银比收于87.33，较7月初下降 5.09；截至7月18日，全国钨精矿平均价收于26.2万元/吨，较7月初上涨1.15万元，APT价格收于17.99 万元/吨，较7月初上涨0.6万元。 行 业 研 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请 ...

Group 1 - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a net value increase of 36.41% over the past year, with the highest monthly return reaching 24.02% since its inception [3] - The ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index, which includes up to 50 listed companies involved in rare metal mining, smelting, and processing [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index account for 54.07% of the index, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Northern Rare Earth among the leaders [3] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from policy support, with plans to expand demand and optimize supply, boosting industry confidence [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to promote structural adjustments and high-quality development in key industries, including copper and aluminum [4] - Strategic metals are anticipated to experience valuation reconstruction opportunities, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rebounding and black tungsten ore prices reaching historical highs [4] Group 3 - The top ten stocks in the Rare Metals ETF include Salt Lake Co. (8.52% weight), Northern Rare Earth (8.49% weight), and others, providing a solid investment tool for investors in the rare metals sector [6]

Group 1 - The market shows positive signals with the Shanghai Composite Index consistently above 3500 points, indicating potential for upward movement in A-shares [1] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside adjustment space and clearer upward logic [1] - Mid to long-term trends in the A-share market remain upward, supported by long-term funds entering the market, particularly from insurance capital [1] Group 2 - High certainty in earnings is leading to strong performance in certain sectors, with a focus on themes such as AI applications, self-control, innovative drugs, and capacity optimization [1] - The "anti-involution" sectors are showing low valuations and are expected to benefit from price increases, which will help maintain market momentum [2] - Financial data from June indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market [2] Group 3 - The non-bank sector is favored, with an emphasis on mergers and acquisitions driven by policy and event catalysts, as new capital enters the market [2] - The "anti-involution" narrative is gaining traction, with a focus on key industries for stable growth, particularly in metals and commodities [3] - The power equipment sector in the Hong Kong market is highlighted as a core asset, with expectations for improved profitability in wind and hydroelectric power [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth of China's retail sales, which are approximately 80% of the United States in absolute terms, and exceed the US in terms of purchasing power by 1.6 times according to World Bank data [4] - The establishment of the new state-owned enterprise, China Yajiang Group, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan, indicates a strong push for infrastructure and industrial development [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in future industries such as humanoid robots, metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, as promoted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [6] Industry Updates - The National Export Control Work Coordination Mechanism has initiated a special action to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals, impacting related stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Dongfang Zuoye [6] - The report notes that the market is experiencing a shift towards value investing, with large-cap stocks showing a trend of upward movement, replacing pure concept speculation [10] - The rare earth sector is leading the market rally, driven by government policies on illegal exports and new mineral discoveries, alongside increased demand for humanoid robots [10] Company Focus - China Unicom is exploring the layout of a 100,000-card computing cluster, aiming for a computing scale of 45 EFLOPS by the end of the year [8] - Betta Pharmaceuticals is advancing its clinical projects targeting the KRAS gene, with plans to submit clinical trial applications soon [8] - Luxshare Precision has commenced construction of its robotics headquarters project in Changshu, with a total investment of 5 billion yuan, expected to achieve an annual output value of 10 billion yuan upon reaching full production [8] - Yinlun Machinery has delivered its liquid cooling system for data centers as scheduled, with expectations for accelerated order acquisition due to high investments in digital energy thermal management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The necessity for China to master its own materials in order to gain a voice in the global technology order restructuring is emphasized, particularly in high-end manufacturing [1] Group 1: High-Purity Materials Innovation - The company is innovating in high-purity materials, specifically gallium, which can be purified from 4N to 8N, indicating a purity level of 99.999999% [2] - Achieving higher purity levels in materials like gallium and indium leads to exponential improvements in product performance, essential for high-end manufacturing [2][3] - The company has developed its own GDMS detection method for high-purity products, becoming one of the few in the industry with both production and detection capabilities [3] Group 2: Strategic Importance and Market Position - High-purity materials are considered a strategic industry with long certification times, making it a challenging field to enter [4] - The company has achieved the highest domestic market share for high-purity indium and gallium products, indicating strong competitive positioning [5] - The transition from selling raw materials to producing high-purity metals is framed as a move towards "casting national instruments" [5] Group 3: Future Development and Market Strategy - The company plans to accelerate projects for producing 500 tons of semiconductor high-purity materials and diversify its product offerings to include high-purity arsenic, carbon, and aluminum [6] - The expansion is seen as a response to national strategic needs, particularly in emerging fields like 5G and renewable energy [6][7] - The company aims to become a platform-type materials enterprise, focusing on both product development and market leadership [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery after recent adjustments, with leading stocks like Northern Rare Earth achieving significant trading volumes and profit growth forecasts for several companies indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic rare earth mining quotas are significantly slowing down, and supply is tightening due to policy and overseas supply reductions [2][3]. - The demand for rare earths is driven by emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and wind power, maintaining a consumption growth rate of over 10% [3][4]. - The recent price increase in rare earth concentrates is supported by a tight supply-demand balance, deepening policy constraints, and external market influences [4][5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The domestic rare earth production landscape has formed a duopoly with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, characterized by resource and policy barriers that strengthen the advantages of leading companies [4][5]. - Northern Rare Earth controls 60% of the national light rare earth quota, while China Rare Earth Group has over 70% market share in heavy rare earths, enhancing their resource self-sufficiency [5][6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth is expected to report a net profit of 900-960 million yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 182%-214% due to rising light rare earth prices [6][7]. - Companies like Guangsheng Youse and Shenghe Resources are also expected to see significant profit growth driven by resource advantages and new project launches [6][7]. - The performance of magnetic material companies is more mixed, with some facing pressure due to raw material inventory cycles and export controls [7].

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented export restrictions on antimony, gallium, and germanium to the U.S., but significant amounts of these critical minerals continue to flow into the U.S. through third-party countries like Thailand and Mexico, indicating a complex challenge in enforcing export controls [1][3][19]. Group 1: Export Trends and Data - Following China's export ban on December 3, 2024, U.S. imports of antimony from Thailand and Mexico surged, with a total of 3,834 tons imported from these countries between December and April, nearly matching the total from the previous three years [3]. - Thailand and Mexico have emerged as the top destinations for Chinese antimony exports, a significant shift from their previous rankings before the ban [3]. - Both Thailand and Mexico lack substantial antimony resources, with each country having only one smelting facility, indicating a high likelihood of re-exporting Chinese antimony to the U.S. [6][7]. Group 2: Role of Companies and Trade Networks - Unipet Industrial Co. in Thailand, a subsidiary of Chinese producer Youngsun Chemicals, has become a key player in this re-export chain, shipping at least 3,366 tons of antimony products to the U.S. from December to May, a 27-fold increase compared to the previous year [8][10]. - The receiving company in Texas, Youngsun & Essen, previously sourced antimony directly from a Chinese supplier before the ban [10]. - The trade data suggests a high probability of re-exportation, although the original source of the materials is not disclosed in the shipping documents [10]. Group 3: Smuggling and Regulatory Challenges - U.S. companies are employing similar strategies for gallium procurement, using third-party countries to mask the origin of the materials [11]. - Despite China's strict export licensing system and enforcement actions, significant loopholes remain, allowing for creative evasion of regulations by domestic companies [15][19]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has acknowledged the collusion between foreign companies and domestic violators to bypass export restrictions, emphasizing the importance of combating such practices for national security [15]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The international prices of antimony, gallium, and germanium have risen sharply since the implementation of the export ban, creating lucrative opportunities for smuggling and re-export [18]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. over critical minerals are becoming increasingly pronounced, with the enforcement of export controls and the compliance of cross-border trade practices being critical issues [19][20].

Core Insights - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw a significant increase of 3.15%, ranking second among concept sectors, with 56 stocks rising, including Jiu Wu Gao Ke which hit a 20% limit up [1] - Major gainers in the sector included Dongfang Zirc, Huahong Technology, and Zinc Industry, with increases of 15.05%, 9.87%, and 9.11% respectively [1] Market Performance - The rare earth permanent magnet sector attracted a net inflow of 3.539 billion yuan, with 40 stocks receiving net inflows, and 7 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2] - The top net inflow was from Northern Rare Earth, which saw 2.109 billion yuan, followed by Dongfang Zirc, Zhongse Co., and Huahong Technology with net inflows of 434 million yuan, 294 million yuan, and 150 million yuan respectively [2] Fund Flow Ratios - The highest net inflow ratios were observed in Dongfang Zirc (42.43%), Zhongse Co. (34.26%), and Zinc Industry (23.22%) [3] - Northern Rare Earth had a daily turnover rate of 12.69% with a price increase of 9.87%, indicating strong trading activity [3] Stock Performance - Notable performers included Northern Rare Earth, Dongfang Zirc, and Zhongse Co., all showing significant price increases and healthy turnover rates [4] - Stocks like Lingyi Zhi Zao and Longci Technology experienced declines of 1.93% and 1.07% respectively, indicating some volatility within the sector [5]

Fund Issuance and Performance - The issuance of new funds has reached record levels this year, with the Dachen Insight Advantage Mixed Fund raising 2.46 billion yuan, setting a new high for active equity fund launches in 2023. This follows the Huashang Zhi Yuan Return Mixed Fund, which raised 2.082 billion yuan just a day earlier. The total issuance of active equity funds has increased by 28.01% year-on-year [1][2] - A total of 50 active equity funds have been liquidated this year, with 6 funds entering liquidation procedures in July alone [3] ETF Market Dynamics - The first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has seen significant inflows, with the Huaxia Sci-Tech Bond ETF surpassing 14.2 billion yuan in size, reflecting a daily increase of over 378%. Additionally, the Penghua Sci-Tech Bond ETF has also exceeded 10.9 billion yuan [2] - The overall market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.34%. The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] Notable Fund Manager Activities - Gao Nan, Chief Equity Investment Officer at Yongying Fund, has concentrated his portfolio in TMT and innovative pharmaceutical sectors. His flagship fund, Yongying Ruixin, includes top holdings such as Pop Mart, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Kangfang Biotech, with several stocks being newly added or increased in weight [4] Sector Performance Insights - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has shown strong performance, with stocks like Huahong Technology hitting the daily limit. The rare metal ETFs led the market with a gain of 4.12% [5][7] - The gaming market is in an upward cycle, with expectations for long-term growth in revenue and player numbers. The introduction of advanced generative capabilities in game development is anticipated to enhance efficiency and user engagement [8]

Core Insights - Ruthenium, a rare metal, has become one of the best-performing commodities this year, with prices nearly doubling to $800 per ounce, matching 2021 peaks and nearing the historical high of $870 from 18 years ago [1][3] Group 1: Demand Drivers - The significant price increase of ruthenium is primarily driven by the AI revolution, particularly its application in hard disk drives [3] - Analysts predict that the growing demand for data storage due to AI proliferation will sustain the need for ruthenium, as it offers a cost-effective solution for high-density data storage [3][4] - The growth of cloud computing is expected to boost hard disk sales by 16% this year, further increasing ruthenium consumption [4] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Ruthenium supply is extremely limited, with only 30 tons produced last year, and it is not traded on any exchanges [4] - Traders are currently competing to acquire available ruthenium supplies, leading to procurement difficulties for major buyers [4] - Due to previous years of low prices resulting in insufficient investment, ruthenium production is expected to decline further this year, potentially leading to a supply deficit in the market next year [4]