1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is favorable for reducing stock market volatility. It believes that the policy signal is clear, and the valuation has started to repair in advance, but the fundamentals have not been fully verified. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares have a high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, have the potential for higher returns due to their high growth, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.50%. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 53,170.00, and the open interest of IF current - month contracts decreased by 4,718.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also declined, with drops from - 0.55% to - 0.61%. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 30,341.00, and the open interest of IH current - month contracts decreased by 599.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with falls from - 0.02% to - 0.06%. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 39,078.00, and the open interest of IC current - month contracts decreased by 2,979.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with rises from 0.01% to 0.03%. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 98,231.00, and the open interest of IM current - month contracts decreased by 3,636.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next - month minus IF current - month was - 6.80, IH next - month minus IH current - month was 1.20, IC next - month minus IC current - month was - 45.20, and IM next - month minus IM current - month was - 62.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices Performance**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.53%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.08%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed varying degrees of rise and fall, with the information technology industry rising by 1.43% and the optional consumption industry falling by 1.48% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts Basis**: The basis of IF current - month minus CSI 300 was - 4.36, and the basis of IF next - month minus CSI 300 was - 11.16 [1] - **IH Contracts Basis**: The basis of IH current - month minus SSE 50 was 0.09, and the basis of IH next - month minus SSE 50 was 1.29 [1] - **IC Contracts Basis**: The basis of IC current - month minus CSI 500 was - 38.39, and the basis of IC next - month minus CSI 500 was - 83.59 [1] - **IM Contracts Basis**: The basis of IM current - month minus CSI 1000 was - 38.41, and the basis of IM next - month minus CSI 1000 was - 100.81 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the DAX index increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared to May. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [2] - **US - EU Trade Agreement**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [2] - **US Business Delegation to China**: A high - level US business delegation is about to visit China, organized by the US - China Business Council [2] - **Provincial Economic Data**: The economic performance of the six central provinces is remarkable, with the GDP growth rates of most provinces exceeding the national average of 5.3% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Artificial Intelligence**: The SASAC attaches great importance to the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry. The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory released ten scientific and intelligent innovation achievements, and Pudong will create over 30 application scenarios and attract 1,000 AI enterprises in the next three years, with the core output value of AI exceeding 200 billion yuan [2] - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry should limit production, stabilize prices, and ensure profits, and learn from the successful experiences of cement integration and the high - profit cycle of electrolytic aluminum [2] - **Power Bank Industry**: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association held a symposium on the compliance and healthy development of the power bank industry in Shenzhen, reaching important consensus on improving product quality [2]

Core Viewpoint - *ST Muban is facing significant financial difficulties, including a major loss in revenue and ongoing legal issues, prompting the company to auction off assets to improve liquidity and focus on core business operations [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 277 million yuan, a decrease of 83.24% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.162 billion yuan, marking a record high annual loss [2] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 60.27 million yuan with a net loss of 99.48 million yuan, and it is expected to incur a loss of 150 to 180 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] Asset Auction - The company plans to auction part of its subsidiary Guangdong Bangbao Yizhi Toy Co., Ltd.'s assets, including a land use right and buildings with a total area of 39,100 square meters and a construction area of 60,100 square meters [1] - The assessed value of the auctioned assets is 118 million yuan, with a starting price set at 82.36 million yuan, which is 70% of the assessed value [1] Legal and Regulatory Issues - The company has faced multiple legal challenges, including the freezing of bank accounts and judicial seizure of funds totaling 228 million yuan due to private lending disputes [3] - The Jiangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued corrective measures against the company for significant accounting errors and improper use of raised funds, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission has initiated an investigation into alleged false disclosures in financial reports [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The focus is on the A-share market and various sectors including TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, machinery, defense, and computers. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Status and Trends** - The A-share market has entered the second phase of a bull market, driven by increased operating cash flow of listed companies and a decline in capital expenditure, leading to continuous growth in free cash flow. The intrinsic return rate of the CSI 300 index reached 7.3%, surpassing the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicating a scarcity of high-yield assets and driving demand for high-quality stocks [2][3][10]. 2. **Industry Configuration Recommendations** - Current industry configuration should focus on high-quality companies with good operating cash flow and improving profitability. Key sectors to focus on include AI-driven fields such as humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, controllable nuclear fusion, new consumption, innovative drugs, military trade, and semiconductors [1][4][21]. 3. **Performance of Recommended Sectors** - In the previous month, recommended sectors such as pharmaceuticals, defense, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automation equipment, and computers achieved over 11% growth, outperforming the market by approximately 3% [8][21]. 4. **Economic Data Insights** - June economic data showed a continued recovery, with supply-side performance outpacing demand. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year due to weak demand, while industrial capacity utilization dropped to historical lows [9][11]. 5. **Impact of Anti-Competition Policies** - The anti-competition policy aims to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic and excessive competition in industries. This has led to a significant decline in industrial capacity utilization, necessitating a focus on industries facing potential capacity clearance [11][12]. 6. **Sector-Specific Recommendations for August** - Recommended sectors for August include non-bank financials (especially securities), pharmaceuticals (especially chemical drugs), electric equipment, machinery, defense, and computers, based on their low valuations and potential for performance improvement [21][22]. 7. **Valuation and Growth Potential** - Non-bank financials are currently valued at around 22 times earnings, below the historical average, while the pharmaceutical sector is experiencing improvements due to policy changes. Electric equipment and machinery sectors are also expected to benefit from government initiatives and infrastructure projects [22][25]. 8. **Performance of TMT Sector** - The TMT sector's second-quarter performance was significantly influenced by AI innovations, with substantial growth expected in semiconductor, consumer electronics, and gaming sub-sectors [17][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Financial Indicators of Capacity Clearance Industries** - Industries facing capacity clearance show weak financial indicators, including low capital expenditure growth and high debt levels, indicating a need for careful monitoring [12][15]. 2. **Consumer Sector Performance** - The consumer sector has shown weaker performance, with retail sales growth below expectations, although certain categories like home appliances and communication equipment have maintained double-digit growth [6][19]. 3. **Potential for Rotation in Low Valuation Sectors** - Sectors with low valuations and limited growth, such as electric equipment, non-bank financials, and consumer goods, are expected to see rotation and potential upward movement in the market [20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic investment opportunities.

如何量化本轮"反内卷"的经济效应？20250728 摘要 自 6 月以来，反内卷措施有效支撑价格上涨，尤其钢铁和煤炭 7 月涨幅 显著，带动生产资料价格回升，预示 7、8 月 PPI 环比持续回升，三季度 或因低基数效应快速增长。 当前光伏、钢铁、水泥、汽车和煤炭五大行业正推进反内卷。光伏和钢 铁已有明确减产计划，而汽车和煤炭侧重于调控价格，旨在使行业价格 回归合理区间。 通过供给价格弹性估算，煤炭、光伏、汽车、水泥等五大行业弹性系数 分别为 0.2, 0.47, 0.59, 0.67 和 1.02，行业规模占比约 20%，小于 2015-2016 年供给侧改革涉及的 30%。 测算显示，五大行业反内卷对整体通胀直接推动约 1.8 个百分点。考虑 产业链外溢效应，上游原材料涨价传导至下游，可能进一步推升整体市 场物价水平。 反内卷政策理论上可能对中国 PPI 产生 2.3 个百分点左右的推升作用， 但实际涨幅可能受中下游减产导致原材料需求减少和价格上涨抑制需求 等因素压制。 Q&A 近期市场对反内卷政策的关注度上升，您能否介绍一下这些政策对经济和通胀 的影响？ 反内卷政策自 7 月 1 日中财委第六次会议后逐 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the government's economic strategy is to "fully expand domestic demand," with significant policy signals expected in the second half of the year [2] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 emphasized the implementation of key policies to strengthen domestic circulation, including expanding investment in emerging service industries and optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of measures to boost consumption, with a total of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds allocated in July and planned for October to support these initiatives [2] Group 2 - The central economic work conference and this year's government work report highlighted the need to address "involution-style" competition, with "anti-involution" becoming a key policy topic for the second half of the year [3] - The government aims to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - Policies to stabilize the real estate and capital markets have been emphasized, with expectations for more supportive measures in the housing market, including easing restrictions in first-tier cities and optimizing real estate storage policies [3]

2025 年 07 月 29 日 工业硅：关注今日情绪变化情况 多晶硅：关注今日市场信息 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | -810 | -345 | 1,195 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 683,714 | 3,096 | -577,216 | -403,907 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 279,068 | -44,246 | -104,228 | -42,274 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 49,405 | -1,620 | 3,745 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 581,460 | -166,501 | -39,854 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 136,2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing dual challenges from both internal and external factors, necessitating technological advancements to offset cost pressures and strengthen industry self-discipline to curb vicious competition [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association emphasizes the need for consensus and collective efforts to address current difficulties, focusing on innovation to enhance product value [1] - A resilient and collaborative supply chain system is essential for building a more robust industrial ecosystem [1] - The association will support comprehensive governance efforts and enhance self-regulation to combat unhealthy competition [1] Group 2: Quality Improvement and Standards - Suggestions for improving photovoltaic product quality include accelerating the release of guiding documents, enhancing regulatory sampling, and increasing inspection and acceptance efforts [1] - The need for a dedicated standard system for solar storage devices is highlighted due to the challenges posed by extreme environmental conditions [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Capacity - Datong City aims to become an energy city, focusing on the development of renewable energy projects, with installed capacity reaching 10 million kilowatts, including nearly 6 million kilowatts of photovoltaic capacity [2]

Group 1 - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy plan aims to reduce family childbirth costs, providing an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, benefiting over 20 million families [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to consolidate the governance of "involution" competition in the new energy vehicle industry and promote the exit of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic sector [3] - Guangdong Province initiates a campaign to resist low-price disorderly competition in the paper industry, optimizing production capacity structure, marking it as the first industry to take "anti-involution" action in China [4] Group 2 - The U.S. has suspended new export control measures against Chinese entities, with both sides engaging in trade talks in Sweden, signaling a potential easing of tensions [5] - The A-share market sees the first stock with a tenfold increase, with a cumulative rise of 1095% for a company due to speculation following a major acquisition, although the company warns of risks related to its fundamentals [5] - The futures market experiences significant volatility, with main contracts for coking coal and glass hitting the limit down, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and cooling market sentiment [5] Group 3 - Shanghai issues 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers to support the development of large models and computing power scheduling platforms, promoting the AI ecosystem [7] - Huawei releases the Ascend 384 super node and the Zhipu GLM-4.5 model, intensifying the AI computing power competition with the showcase of 3000 technological innovations [8] - Shanghai plans to fully open autonomous driving testing roads in the Pudong New Area by the end of the year, while also advancing similar initiatives in other districts [9] Group 4 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical collaborates with GSK for a partnership worth 12.5 billion USD, with the innovative drug sector receiving policy support as medical insurance clarifies that "innovative drugs will not be centralized for procurement" [10] - WuXi AppTec reports a 101.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year and raises its full-year revenue guidance to between 42.5 billion and 43.5 billion yuan [11] Group 5 - Oil prices rise nearly 3%, with Brent crude exceeding 69 USD per barrel, driven by a U.S.-EU trade agreement and OPEC's production increase plans [11] - Gold prices fall to a three-week low at 3310 USD per ounce due to a stronger dollar and cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate is adjusted down by 44 basis points to 7.1511 yuan [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in the Chinese market, including Goldman Sachs raising its MSCI China Index target and various government initiatives to support the AI and industrial sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs' Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, indicating a potential upside of 10% to 11% from the latest closing price [3]. - The MSCI China Index has increased over 25% year-to-date, with Goldman Sachs shifting its investment strategy to focus on individual stocks, upgrading the insurance and materials sectors to "overweight" while remaining cautious on banks and real estate [4]. - Key factors for the recent market performance include easing international trade tensions, strong Q2 GDP data, and a resurgence in the Hong Kong IPO market, alongside increased foreign interest in Chinese stocks [4]. Group 2: Government Initiatives in AI and Industry - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced measures to expand AI applications, including issuing 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers and 300 million yuan for AI model applications [6][7]. - The government aims to lower the cost of AI computing power and support the development of AI technologies, including intelligent chips and brain-computer interfaces [6][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to enhance policies for emerging industries, including humanoid robots and IoT, to stimulate consumption and industrial growth [10][11]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The article notes that the solar energy sector is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with recent efforts to stabilize prices and improve profitability across the supply chain [14]. - Analysts suggest that the AI industry in China is poised for continued growth, driven by advancements in AI models and domestic chip performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has faded, leading to price corrections. For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, while demand has mixed changes. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the demand in the photovoltaic market remains weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.52% to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price fell 1.45% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 8.33% to 8,915 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained flat, while the futures main contract closing price dropped 3.17% to 49,409 yuan/ton [1]. Market News - On July 26, the China Tendering and Bidding Network announced the winning candidate publicity for the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. in 2025. Jingao and Hengdian Dongci were short - listed, with Jingao at 0.73 yuan/W and Hengdian Dongci at 0.701 yuan/W, and the procurement volume was tentatively set at 124.09MWp [1]. - Premier Energies plans to build a new 1.2GW TOPCon solar cell production line in Telangana, India, which will increase its solar cell production capacity from 2GW to 3.2GW [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Northern large factories have production cuts with no restart news, while Southwest production areas are in the wet season with lower power costs and a slow increase in enterprise operations. Overall, supply may decrease after offsetting [1]. - Demand side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some restarts in July to bring demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory willingness is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new production capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand side: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected price increase of polysilicon, the terminal market is still weak [1].