Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement. There will be a continued shift in the stock - bond allocation, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.3 pct, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Except for the consumer goods industry, other industries' PMIs increased month - on - month. With the implementation of consumption - stimulating policies, the consumer goods industry's PMI is expected to stabilize and rebound [4]. - From the perspective of component indices, the production index was 50.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct, and it has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production. The production and operation activity expectation index was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 pct, rising for two consecutive months, showing a positive market expectation [4]. - In terms of enterprise scale, the PMIs of large and small enterprises increased month - on - month, and the PMI of large enterprises has been in the expansion zone for 4 consecutive months [5]. Non - manufacturing - In August, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 pct and a year - on - year flat, remaining in the expansion zone. The construction industry PMI decreased by 1.5 pct to the contraction zone due to adverse factors such as frequent extreme weather, while the service industry PMI increased by 0.5 pct to the highest point of the year, with an obvious improvement in the prosperity level [6]. - From the perspective of major classification indices, the new order index increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month, and the business activity expectation index increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month, indicating that service enterprises are relatively optimistic about the recent market development prospects [6]. Comprehensive - In August, the comprehensive PMI was 50.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 pct and a year - on - year increase of 0.4 pct, remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [7]. Market - This week, the 10Y treasury bond active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.75% - 1.80%, and the 10Y state - owned development active bond fluctuated in the range of 1.83% - 1.89%. The bond market trading remained insensitive to economic data, with overall fragile sentiment and a stronger sensitivity to negative events than positive events [8].

Group 1 - The manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.5%, rising by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting overall economic expansion in China [1][2][5] - The production index in the manufacturing sector is 50.8%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, indicating accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index stands at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month, with certain industries like pharmaceuticals and electronics showing significantly higher production and new orders indices compared to the overall manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices are 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating an overall improvement in market price levels [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI and equipment manufacturing PMI are at 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 0.2 percentage points, suggesting a strengthening leading role in these sectors [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, with a new orders index of 46.6%, which is a 0.9 percentage point increase, indicating stable supply and demand conditions [4] Group 3 - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, reaching a yearly high, with certain industries like capital market services showing indices above 70.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has decreased to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions affecting production [4] - Overall, the comprehensive PMI output index remains in the expansion zone, with manufacturing production and non-manufacturing business activity indices indicating accelerated overall business activities [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [2] - The purchasing activities have accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 50.4% [2] - The prices of major raw materials and factory prices increased, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Sector Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion [3] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 48.9%, reflecting a downturn in economic conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a slight improvement with PMI at 46.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong performance with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year [5] - Certain industries, such as capital market services and transportation, reported business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, reflecting a slowdown [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]

Economic Recovery Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from last month, continuing to show expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for major raw materials is at 53.3%, rising by 1.8 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, increasing by 0.8 percentage points, both indicating a general improvement in market prices [1][4] - The raw material purchasing price index has been in the expansion zone for two consecutive months, reflecting a significant rise in raw material costs [4] Demand and Production Trends - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index is at 47.2%, also increasing by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in demand [4] - The production index is reported at 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable expansion in production activities [4] Business Expectations - The manufacturing business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, reflecting improved market confidence and expectations across various industries [6] - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [6] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains in expansion at 50.3%, with the service sector index at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high [9] - The service industry shows optimism with a business activity expectation index of 57.0%, indicating positive market outlook [9] Construction Sector Insights - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions [10] - The construction business activity expectation index is slightly up at 51.7%, indicating cautious optimism for future activities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure, although there are signs of improvement due to policy measures and reduced extreme weather impacts [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1]. - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the production index is at 50.8%, reflecting a stable expansion in production activities [4]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a continued rise in raw material prices, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking the highest level this year [4][5]. - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Economic Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for August is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting improved market confidence and expectations for future economic performance [6]. - Positive factors are accumulating, leading to expectations of continued economic recovery in September and the fourth quarter, with stable demand and production activities in the manufacturing sector [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9]. - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high, while certain industries like retail and real estate remain below the critical point, indicating weaker performance [9][10]. - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in production due to adverse weather conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - In August 2025, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector and an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, indicating an overall improvement in economic conditions [2][6]. Manufacturing PMI Summary - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic climate [2][7]. - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [3][10]. - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [10]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises showed PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic activity across different enterprise sizes [3][10]. - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices were 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases, suggesting an overall improvement in market price levels [3][10]. Non-Manufacturing PMI Summary - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [2][24]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, reaching a yearly high, with sectors like capital market services and transportation showing strong growth [4][17]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions [5][17]. - The business activity expectation index for the non-manufacturing sector was 56.2%, indicating optimism among businesses regarding future market conditions [23][24]. Comprehensive PMI Summary - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [6][26].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a decline to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated manufacturing production expansion [4][5] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight improvement in market demand [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight decrease in employment sentiment within manufacturing [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9] - The construction sector's business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services sector's index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [12] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [13] - The input prices index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [13] - The sales prices index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in sales prices [13] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [19]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a decline to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [5] - The production index was 50.8%, rising by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [5][10] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the service sector's index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, reflecting improved market demand [19] Group 3: Employment and Price Indices - The employment index for manufacturing was 47.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment [8] - In the non-manufacturing sector, the employment index remained at 45.6%, suggesting weak employment conditions [21] - The input prices index for non-manufacturing was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable input costs [19]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand [2] - Large enterprises showed a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion, while medium and small enterprises experienced declines [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors maintained expansion with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index reached 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, continuing its expansion [4] - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, the highest point of the year, with significant growth in capital market services and transportation sectors [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, due to adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The Composite PMI Output Index stood at 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities [5][6]