| 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原 | | | | 59.61 | 63.85 | 57.81 | | +0.49 +0.83% +0.51 +0.81% -0.28 -0.48% | | | | INE原油 | | | | 437.7 | 3038 | 3.256 | | +11.9 +2.79% +40 +1.33% +0.087 +2.75% | | | 消息面上，全球地缘政治风险继续升温。 俄乌方面，据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间1月12日凌晨，乌克兰首都基辅响起强烈爆炸声。 此前，俄罗斯国防部11日通报称，过去一天，俄军对乌军工企业等目标实施了打击。乌克兰武 装部队总参谋部同一天通报称，对里海海域三座俄罗斯石油钻井平台实施了打击。 1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿， 现货黄金升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高；现货 白银涨幅扩大至2.79%。 现货铂金涨近3%，突破2320.00美元/盎司关口，最新报2327.80美元/盎 司。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of A-shares at the beginning of 2026 is primarily driven by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," rather than significant changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals [2][3][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a 16-day consecutive rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, continuing the trend from 2025 [3][5]. - The main contributors to the A-share gains are valuation expansions, with sectors like commercial aerospace and materials leading the charge [5][8]. - A-share trading volumes have reached historical highs, with a single-day turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [5][8]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has lagged behind, primarily due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and weaker capital flows [9][11]. - Key sectors in Hong Kong, such as dividends, internet, and new consumption, are not currently in the market's focus, leading to underperformance [11][19]. - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with significant fundraising, but the overall market sentiment is subdued compared to A-shares [17][19]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Domestic capital flows have favored A-shares, with southbound capital flows slowing down significantly since late 2025 [15][19]. - The liquidity environment for A-shares is more favorable, benefiting from domestic microeconomic conditions, while Hong Kong faces constraints from external factors [28][30]. - The anticipated inflow of southbound capital in 2026 may not match the record levels seen in 2025, as A-shares attract more attention [30][32]. Group 4: Structural Differences and Future Outlook - A-shares are expected to have a higher overall profit growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026, compared to Hong Kong's 3%, driven by stronger sectors like technology and manufacturing [25][26]. - The structural advantages of Hong Kong, including its focus on dividends and innovative drugs, provide unique investment opportunities, even as A-shares outperform overall [30][32]. - The ongoing credit cycle and its impact on market dynamics will guide investment strategies, with a focus on sectors like AI, dividends, and cyclical stocks [33].

标题点睛 美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站11日援引匿名美国官员的消息称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑多个干涉伊朗方案，包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击 和信息战等。 据商务微新闻公众号，1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作。 近日，一款名为"死了么"的App爆火。该App目前仅上线苹果应用商店，购买需要8元人民币，1月8日，该款App在苹果付费软件排行榜位列第一。"死了 么"APP创始人郭先生介绍，项目大约在2025年年中立项，而APP的实际开发时间不到一个月，初始投入成本仅"1000多块钱"。 1月11日晚，闫学晶在朋友圈发文致歉。闫学晶称：大家批评的，不是"闫学晶说错话"，而是"闫学晶怎么变成这样了"。想到这儿，我开始认真审视自 己，这根本不是一句"没说对"或者"没把握好"那么简单，而是我的思想出了严重的偏差。 1 商务部：深入实施提振消费专项行动 据商务微新闻公众号，1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作：一是深入实施提振消费 专项行动，打造"购在中国"品牌；二是健全现代市场和流通体 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet announced its ruling on Trump's tariffs, while mixed non-farm employment data led to a 0.6% increase in the S&P 500, reaching a new high, and a 1% rise in the Nasdaq 100 [1] - Stocks closely related to tariffs experienced declines during the day, with Intel surging over 10% after its CEO met with Trump, and Oracle rising nearly 5% [1] - The non-farm report reinforced market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in January, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rising by 4.39 basis points [2] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar has risen for four consecutive days, reaching a one-month high, with the dollar against the yen briefly surpassing 158 amid reports of Japan's Prime Minister planning to dissolve the parliament for early elections [3] - Cryptocurrencies fell on Friday, with Bitcoin dipping below $90,000 after a strong rise earlier in the week, while spot gold prices increased by 0.7%, surpassing $4,500, and silver rose by 3.8% for the week [4] - WTI crude oil saw a brief increase of 2.3% before narrowing to a 0.6% gain due to heightened tensions in Iran and Trump's threats against protesters [4] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 closed up 0.65% at 6966.28 points, with a weekly increase of 1.57%. The Dow Jones rose 0.48% to 49504.07 points, up 2.32% for the week, while the Nasdaq gained 0.82% to 23671.346 points, with a weekly rise of 1.88% [18] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43 points, up 0.92%, and the Shenzhen Component rose 1.15% to 14120.15 points [19] Industry Developments - China's Ministry of Commerce has tightened controls on dual-use items to counter Japan's militaristic ambitions, emphasizing that these measures do not affect normal civilian trade [23] - The U.S. has withdrawn its plan to restrict imports of Chinese drones, following strong domestic opposition and the recognition of the necessity of Chinese drones in the market [33] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved a significant breakthrough in lithium extraction technology from salt lakes, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [45] Company News - Walmart is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20, replacing AstraZeneca [38] - SanDisk has proposed a new contract requiring full cash prepayment from customers to secure future supply quotas, reflecting the high demand for storage devices driven by AI infrastructure [43]

加州是美国最富裕和人口最多的州。按照GDP计算，加州是全球第四大经济体，仅次于美国中国和日 本。硅谷更是全球科技创新胜地，涌现了苹果、谷歌、Meta等一代代的科技巨头，改变了全球民众的 工作与生活方式，造就了一批又一批亿万富豪。 然而，这个创富神话之地正陷入一场前所未有的财政困境。根据加州立法分析办公室的最新预测， 2026-27财年该州将面临近180亿美元的预算赤字，这已经是加州连续第四年出现财政缺口。更令人担忧 的是，结构性赤字可能在2027-28财年攀升至350亿美元。 为何最富有的加州会面临财政危机？这并非简单的周期性财政波动。尽管AI热潮推动的股市繁荣为加 州带来了强劲的税收增长，但不断膨胀的公共开支，尤其是医疗补助计划MediCal，正在以更快的速度 吞噬财政收入。加州已经连续三年动用应急基金、内部借款和审计腾挪来弥补数百亿美元的赤字，可用 的财政工具正在枯竭。 既然加州公共财政缺钱严重，亿万富翁又如此之多，很多人想到了一个激进的提议：为什么不向亿万富 豪们额外征税来解决财政赤字呢？ 这个方案很快就浮出水面：服务业雇员国际工会医疗工作者西部分会（SEIU-UHW）推动的《2026年亿 万富翁税收法 ...

每经记者｜王帆 每经编辑｜陈柯名 张明双 王瀚黎 潘海福 标题点睛 美国阿克西奥斯新闻网站11日援引匿名美国官员的消息称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑多个干涉伊朗方案，包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击 和信息战等。 据商务微新闻公众号，1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作。 近日，一款名为"死了么"的App爆火。该App目前仅上线苹果应用商店，购买需要8元人民币，1月8日，该款App在苹果付费软件排行榜位列第一。"死了 么"APP创始人郭先生介绍，项目大约在2025年年中立项，而APP的实际开发时间不到一个月，初始投入成本仅"1000多块钱"。 1月11日晚，闫学晶在朋友圈发文致歉。闫学晶称：大家批评的，不是"闫学晶说错话"，而是"闫学晶怎么变成这样了"。想到这儿，我开始认真审视自 己，这根本不是一句"没说对"或者"没把握好"那么简单，而是我的思想出了严重的偏差。 1 商务部：深入实施提振消费专项行动 据商务微新闻公众号，1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作：一是深入实施提振消费 ...

每经编辑｜张明双 王瀚黎 ０国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍第六届亚洲沙滩 运动会筹办情况 2 工商银行上调准入门槛, 1月12日起买积存金需 C3级以上 3 OmniVision香港IPO, 预计股票将从1月12日 开始交易 4七国集团财长会议将于1月12日举办 F 1 商务部：深入实施提振消费专项行动 据商务微新闻公众号，1月10日至11日，全国商务工作会议在京召开。会议指出，2026年全国商务系统要重点做好八个方面工作：一是深入实施提振消费专 项行动，打造"购在中国"品牌；二是健全现代市场和流通体系，推进全国统一大市场建设；三是推动贸易创新发展，打响"出口中国"品牌；四是塑造吸引外 资新优势，擦亮"投资中国"品牌；五是对接国际高标准经贸规则，更大力度推进开放高地建设；六是有效实施对外投资管理，引导产供链合理有序跨境布 局；七是深化多双边经贸合作，推动多领域合作共赢；八是防范化解风险，织密织牢开放安全网。 2 国家医保局启动"个人医保云"建设试点 国家医保局11日印发通知，开展"个人医保云"建设试点申报工作，今年2月至12月将在部分地区试点建设"个人医保云"，探索构建覆盖全人群、全周期、全 场景的智慧医保管理新 ...

本报讯（记者 孙杰）全国就业与社会保障先进民营企业暨关爱员工实现双赢表彰大会近日在京召开。 记者从市工商联了解到，北京市多家民营企业和个人荣获表彰。 民营企业是就业岗位的主要创造者、技能人才的重要培养者、员工权益的直接维护者。在100家"全国就 业与社会保障先进民营企业"名单中，北京京东世纪贸易有限公司、小米科技有限责任公司、北京三快 网络科技有限公司（即美团）3家北京企业荣获表彰。 以京东为例，这家企业的正式员工有90万人，含4000多名残障员工、60多万名快递员等，超过80%来自 农村地区。京东为全员缴纳五险一金，持续大规模投入设立"员工救助基金"，帮助数千名一线员工度过 困难，过去20年累计投入220亿元改善职工居住条件。 小米公司积极推动公司集体合同、《员工手册》的签署，覆盖全公司5万余人，劳动合同签署率100%， 同时为正式员工提供100%覆盖的补充商业保险及免费体检。为让应届毕业生离校后安心扎根，小米公 司历时三年在北京、南京两地建设3000多间高品质青年公寓，以贴心价格定向提供给应届毕业生。 美团骑手群体中，80%来自农村地区，有63.6万人来自国家重点帮扶县，还吸纳残疾骑手人数超1万 人。美团 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and the potential investment opportunities arising from them, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI and improved supply-demand dynamics in lithium battery materials [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Environment - The A-share market is currently experiencing a positive upward trend, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks seen as attractive investment options due to their high yield potential compared to low-risk assets [1][2]. - The economic adjustment in sectors like real estate is nearing completion, reducing its impact on the economy, while China's trade dependency on the U.S. has significantly decreased, with successful expansion into emerging markets [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The policy environment has been exceptionally supportive of the capital market, with strict limits on financing and an increased focus on dividends and share buybacks by listed companies, enhancing investor returns [2]. - Despite a general market recovery, valuations in key sectors such as Hong Kong internet, consumer electronics, and lithium remain reasonable, with companies increasingly prioritizing shareholder returns [2]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors. Technology is seen as early-stage development benefiting from AI, while new energy, particularly lithium materials, is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to rising demand [3]. - The cyclical sector is in a stable phase, with strong performance in non-ferrous metals driven by improved supply-demand fundamentals, particularly in copper and aluminum [3]. Group 4: Research and Team Dynamics - The company has reduced the weight of left-side positioning in its investment portfolio to better manage liquidity and enhance investment experience, while maintaining long-term holdings in high-quality companies with strong competitive positions [4]. - The research team has been structured to enhance collaboration across sectors like AI, energy, and consumer goods, improving research depth and efficiency [4][5]. - The dual role of the research head as a fund manager facilitates direct communication of investment ideas to researchers, promoting effective research transformation and timely opportunity identification [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and the competitive advantages of companies, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI wave and improvements in supply-demand dynamics in sectors like lithium battery materials [1]. Group 1: Investment Environment - The A-share market is currently experiencing a favorable investment period, with equity assets gaining more attention compared to low-risk assets [2]. - Economic adjustments in sectors like real estate and reduced trade dependency on the U.S. are contributing to a more stable economic environment [2]. - The focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks is increasing among listed companies, enhancing the attractiveness of equity investments [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on companies benefiting from AI and those in the lithium battery sector [5]. - The technology sector is seen as being in its early development stage, while the new energy sector is in mid-development, poised for a new growth cycle due to rising demand [5]. - The cyclical sector is stabilizing, with improvements in supply-demand fundamentals for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, indicating potential price increases [5]. Group 3: Research and Team Dynamics - The research team has undergone iterative upgrades to enhance research depth, coverage, and efficiency, focusing on industry changes over the next three months to a year [4][7]. - The team structure includes experienced leaders and younger researchers, fostering a collaborative environment that enhances decision-making and emotional resilience [7][8]. - Continuous training and interaction between researchers and fund managers are emphasized to ensure timely responses to industry changes and investment opportunities [8].