021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com | | 表2：10月21日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2601 | 1,175,046 | 1,246,557 | -2,203 | -16,676 | 14,473 | 1.20% | | ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可称的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及 分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内审仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的急见开不勾成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资器比 投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发明货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货节面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制 。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 | 材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年10月22日 | | | | 周敦波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 品种 | | 现值 | 前目 | 狱跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3200 | 3200 | O | 153 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3110 | 311 ...

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 105.30 -0.65 -2.10 纽曼粉 776 0 0 830.2 100.80 -0.10 -2.70 -26.54 PB粉 777 0 -3 823.9 105.05 0.00 -1.55 -22.13 麦克粉 776 2 2 847.6 99.40 0.00 -2.50 8.09 金布巴 747 0 -3 839.8 94.45 -0.05 -2.45 10.28 主流 混合粉 739 2 -11 868.9 95.30 0.05 -2.00 0.38 超特粉 702 2 -3 918.9 90.35 0.05 -1.90 10.49 卡粉 904 3 -4 850.3 118.00 -0.10 -2.70 0.56 巴西 巴混 813 0 0 827.6 107.45 0.00 -2.75 -7.62 主流 巴粗IOC6 778 0 -6 853.4 巴粗SSFG 783 0 -6 乌克兰精粉 897 0 -8 981.4 61%印粉 736 0 -3 卡拉拉精粉 897 0 -8 919.4 罗伊山粉 764 0 -3 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the Chinese iron ore industry from 2025 to 2031, focusing on market evaluation and development strategies [1] Import Data Summary - In April 2025, China imported 103 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - The import value for the same period was $10.118 billion, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [1] Company Profile - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing a range of services including feasibility studies and customized consulting [1] - The company emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

黑色建材日报 2025-10-22 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3047 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 129796 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 199.5833 万手，环比减少 10093 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3110 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3200 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3219 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 113657 吨, 环比减少 2375 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is advisable to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core reason is that the demand benefits are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened. Inventory has increased again, steel mill production has declined, demand has fallen from the high level, and industrial contradictions remain unresolved. There is a downward space, and the positive effects are weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while the shipments from miners have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, domestic mine supply is recovering, and the supply pressure continues to increase. Overall, the iron ore supply is at a high level, while industrial concerns remain, ore demand is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market continue to deteriorate, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. However, due to the high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline. The price is expected to show a volatile decline, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term: weak and volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that demand benefits are weakening, causing the ore price to be under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, with inventory accumulation, weakened steel mill production, and falling demand from the high level. Industrial contradictions remain, and there is a downward space with weakening positive effects. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has fallen from the high level, while miner shipments have increased. Both are at the annual high. Overseas ore supply is active, and domestic mine supply is recovering, increasing supply pressure. - The iron ore supply is at a high level, demand is weakening, and the over - valued ore price is under pressure. But due to high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline, and it is expected to show a volatile decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Expected to decline further, with prices entering a phase of long - short competition and increased market volatility [13][14] - US Dollar Index: Expected to strengthen [17][18] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to improve risk appetite, but with continued high volatility, recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [20] - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term, trading should be cautious. Later, opportunities to buy on dips for medium - term long positions can be sought [22][23] - Sugar: Expected to show weak oscillations, not recommended to short aggressively [28] - Soybean Meal: Expected to remain weak in the short term [30] - Steel: Recommended to approach prices with an oscillatory mindset [32][33] - Vegetable Oils: Recommended to wait for market drivers and take a short - term wait - and - see approach or hold light long positions [34] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] - Corn: Short - term recommended to wait and see, not advisable to short [37] - Red Dates: Recommended to wait and see, focus on price competition in production areas and downstream consumption [40] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to strengthen due to supply - demand resonance [41] - Iron Ore: Overall trend is expected to be weak, but short - term decline may not be smooth [42] - Polysilicon: Maintain the view that spot prices will not decline in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for PS2511 - PS2512 [47] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term recommended for range trading, mid - term focus on short - selling opportunities after peak demand [51] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with an oscillatory mindset, and mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets can be considered [53] - Zinc: Unilateral trading recommended to wait and see, focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage approach for domestic - foreign trading [56] - Crude Oil: Expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [61] - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [63] - Methanol: Recommended to wait and see [66] - Pulp: Expected limited upside space for the futures price [68] - Caustic Soda: Not recommended to short aggressively [70][71] - Styrene: The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream products of pure benzene [74] - Container Freight Rates: Short - term recommended to approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, not advisable to buy on the rise [76] 2. Core Views - The formulation of a 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe and Ukraine has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a stronger US dollar index, but there are still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation [17] - The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the joint statement of European leaders on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, a softening of Trump's stance on tariffs, and the news of a possible visit to China, which has reduced risk - aversion demand. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline [13] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] - The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and combined with weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak [30] - Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend. Due to inventory pressure and average demand recovery, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [32] - The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [46] - The industrial silicon market has a clearer price floor due to cost factors, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - European leaders' joint statement on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and Trump's related remarks have led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline due to reduced risk - aversion demand and short - term over - rise [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to strengthen. However, there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's discussion of providing loan guarantees for OpenAI has increased market concerns. With uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations and a cautious market before the earnings season, risk appetite has declined. The market is expected to improve but with high volatility [20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's imports of syrup and sugar premix have decreased, Brazil's sugar exports in October have increased, and the price of gasoline in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic sugar market is expected to show weak oscillations [24][26][28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean exports in September increased, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations and is expected to remain weak [29][30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU has made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese steel crawler tracks, and China's automobile exports in September have increased. Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend, and are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [31][32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased. The oil market is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for market drivers [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions vary. The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are mainly rising, but the upward trend has slowed. Spot prices are expected to decline, while futures prices may enter an oscillatory bottom - building phase [36][37] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market is strong. Due to supply - demand resonance, prices are expected to strengthen [41] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 decreased. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar power generation in September increased. The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [43][46] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some polysilicon bases are shutting down, affecting the industrial silicon market. The price floor is clearer, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [48][49] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium plans to increase lithium concentrate production. The inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and prices are expected to be supported in the short term [50] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is oscillating, and the domestic lead market has a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is recommended to observe unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [52][53] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Silvercorp's zinc production in Q2 2025 decreased. The LME zinc price is rising, and the domestic zinc market has a stable supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage [54][55] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for strategic reserves, and API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are expected to show weak oscillations [57][60][61] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon emissions market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and prices are expected to be lower than last year [62][63] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol imports in September were high. Due to a temporary shutdown of an Iranian methanol plant, futures prices have rebounded, but it is recommended to wait and see [64][66] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable, and the paper pulp futures price is relatively strong. However, due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, the upward space is limited [67][68] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. It is not recommended to short aggressively [69][71] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene plant has started production, and there are many maintenance rumors in the industry. The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [72][74] 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - HPL will increase freight rates from the Far East to multiple destinations. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is not recommended to buy on the rise [75][76]

Group 1 - Iron ore is a crucial raw material for steel production, with China accounting for over half of global steel output and importing more than a billion tons annually, primarily from Australia and Brazil [2] - Major Australian companies like BHP and Rio Tinto dominate the global iron ore market, leading to a situation where Chinese steel mills have historically faced low profit margins, averaging less than 1% net profit [2] - In response to the unfavorable pricing dynamics, China has diversified its iron ore sources, focusing on the Simandou project in Guinea, which is the largest undeveloped iron ore mine globally, with an annual capacity of 120 million tons [4] Group 2 - China's steel production surged from 270 million tons in 2003 to 510 million tons within five years, causing iron ore prices to rise from under $40 per ton to over $140, resulting in significant financial outflows to Australian mining companies [5] - In 2022, the establishment of China Mineral Resources Group centralized 40% of iron ore import procurement, allowing for unified negotiations and reducing the fragmentation of previous purchasing strategies [4] - By 2024, China's crude steel production is projected to reach nearly 1 billion tons, with iron ore imports accounting for 72% of global seaborne trade, yet profit margins for Chinese steel mills remain low [7] Group 3 - In August 2023, negotiations between China and BHP for long-term contracts for 2026 stalled over currency settlement preferences, with China pushing for RMB settlements while BHP insisted on USD [9] - Following a suspension of all BHP's USD iron ore purchases, BHP's stock price fell, highlighting its dependency on the Chinese market, which accounts for 60% of its exports [11] - A subsequent agreement allowed for 30% of fourth-quarter transactions to be settled in RMB, marking a significant shift in pricing dynamics and reducing exchange rate risks for Chinese steel mills [11][13] Group 4 - The shift to RMB settlements represents a broader change in pricing rules, reducing costs for Chinese steel mills and increasing their profit margins, while also weakening the pricing power of Australian exporters [13] - With the full production of Simandou, global iron ore supply is expected to increase by 10%, further diminishing the monopoly held by Australian companies [13] - The move towards RMB in iron ore trade is expected to enhance China's position in resource trade and promote the internationalization of the RMB [13]

Group 1: Iron Ore Production and Demand Outlook - BHP maintains an optimistic outlook on global iron ore demand, supported by strong macroeconomic signals and rising global economic growth expectations [1] - In the three months ending September 30, BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia was 70.2 million tons, slightly below market estimates of 71.55 million tons, and a minor decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The company expects its iron ore production in Western Australia for the fiscal year 2026 to remain unchanged at 284 million to 296 million tons [2] Group 2: Copper Production and Strategic Focus - BHP's copper production increased by 4% to 493,600 tons, primarily due to higher output from the Escondida project in Chile, offsetting declines in other areas [3] - The company has become the world's largest copper producer, with an annual output of approximately 2 million tons, and maintains its copper production forecast for 2026 [3] - BHP's CEO highlighted that production disruptions at competitors' mines have tightened the overall market, benefiting BHP's world-class asset portfolio [3] Group 3: Potash Project Developments - BHP has postponed the expansion plans for the Jansen potash project due to cost overruns and ample market supply, but remains optimistic about potash as a long-term opportunity [3] - The first phase of the Jansen potash project is 73% complete and is expected to start production in 2027, while the second phase is 13% complete [3]

黑金负反馈驱动逐渐增强：一方面，终端需求疲软且出台大规模刺激政策的概率较低；据上海钢联数据 显示，今年1—9月五大材消费合计33065.73万吨，同比下降1.6%；另一方面，钢厂高炉利润处于偏低水 平，截至10月13日收盘，螺纹钢高炉即期利润为6元/吨、盘面利润为-33元/吨；热卷高炉即期利润已降 至46元/吨。笔者于9月19日在中州黑色研究所公众号发表的报告《高炉近亏损能否做扩钢厂利润黑金走 正反馈OR负反馈》中提出：从黑色金属的单边走势判断，若后续热卷及其他板材品种利润同样下探至 亏损区间，钢厂将被动或主动实行减产，进而使高炉铁水产量显著回落，触发负反馈。当时热卷高炉利 润为210元/吨。目前热卷高炉即期利润已降至46元/吨。触发负反馈的条件逐渐增强。此外，上海钢联 在国庆期间对钢厂生产的调研亦显示：若钢厂高炉出现严重亏损，多数钢厂会考虑减产。 综合来看，钢材终端消费较低而且短期较难出台刺激钢材消费的措施，钢厂高炉利润进一步被挤压，黑 色金属负反馈驱动增强。根据近10年统计规律，四季度钢厂高炉铁水大概率季节性回落，铁矿石消费将 下降。进口矿与国产矿均高于去年同期，铁矿供给高位。铁矿石价格或震荡偏弱运行。建 ...