欧洲股市回吐此前涨幅，美国股指期货小幅上涨，投资者正在评估美国总统唐纳德・特朗普最新的关税 威胁、令人失望的经济数据以及大量企业盈利报告。 斯托克欧洲 600 指数在上涨 0.4% 后变动不大，原 因是该地区一些大型企业的业绩喜忧参半。标准普尔 500 指数期货上涨约 0.3%，交易员们正等待麦当 劳和华特迪士尼等公司的盈利报告。 周二的数据显示，美国服务业表现疲软，同时物价压力居高不 下，这引发了人们对美联储政策挑战的担忧。特朗普加大了关税攻势，称他将对从俄罗斯购买能源的国 家加征关税，并很快宣布对半导体和药品进口征收关税。尽管如此，强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注目 前仍在提振股市。 XBT 研究总监凯瑟琳・布鲁克斯表示："总体而言，大西洋两岸不错的企业盈利对股 市形成支撑，这在一定程度上缓解了人们对美国经济放缓以及特朗普总统对关税的持续痴迷给全球经济 带来影响的担忧。" 美国股市接近历史高点，原因是在数据显示经济增长可能放缓之际，投资者重新涌 入科技巨头和人工智能相关交易。高盛集团宏观交易员保罗・斯基亚沃内表示，押注市场势头逆转 "几 乎显得不合理"。 瑞银财富管理首席投资官马克・黑费勒表示，任何抛售都将为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump raises concerns among economists and market participants regarding the credibility of economic data, which is crucial for monetary and fiscal policy formulation [1][3][5] Economic Data Credibility - Economists warn that the credibility of economic data is easily damaged and difficult to restore, impacting policy decisions [3][5] - The International Statistical Institute states that Trump's actions violate UN principles aimed at protecting factual statistical data, urging the government to restore public confidence [3] - Experts highlight that the disruption caused by Trump's policies, such as tariffs and immigration enforcement, complicates data collection and affects labor supply [3][5] Market Reactions - Market participants express concerns that the political nature of the BLS's leadership could undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets [7][8] - Following the news of the BLS director's dismissal, safe-haven assets like gold saw significant price increases, indicating market anxiety over the future of dollar assets [7][8] - The bond market reflects heightened concerns, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields showing increased risk premiums, suggesting investor expectations of rising inflation [8] Historical Context - Historical examples, such as Greece's debt crisis and Turkey's statistical agency leadership changes, illustrate the long-term consequences of compromised data credibility on investor trust and market stability [5][6]

Group 1 - The dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) director by President Trump raises concerns about the credibility of economic data, which is crucial for monetary and fiscal policy formulation [1][3] - Economists warn that the trust in economic data is easily damaged and difficult to restore, which could lead to adverse effects on the economy [3][5] - The political appointment of key statistical positions in the U.S. creates a risk of data politicization, undermining the integrity of economic statistics [3][4] Group 2 - Market participants express concerns that the trust in U.S. economic data is vital for the attractiveness of dollar assets to foreign investors, and Trump's actions may further weaken this trust [7][8] - Following the news of the BLS director's dismissal, there was a notable increase in safe-haven assets like gold, indicating market anxiety regarding the long-term outlook for dollar assets [7][8] - The bond market is reflecting fears about Trump's economic policies, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields showing a higher risk premium, suggesting expectations of rising inflation [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the M&A market continues to show resilience, with a significant increase in global M&A transaction volume in the first half of 2025, up by 29% year-on-year [1] Group 1: M&A Activity Trends - In the first half of 2025, the number of mega-deals (transactions over $10 billion) reached a historical high, driven by corporate focus on long-term growth and increased confidence from CEOs in operational investments and strategic mergers [2] - The Asia-Pacific region saw a notable increase in mega-deal activity, with transactions between $1 billion and $5 billion rising by 57% year-on-year, while the Americas and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa experienced increases of 42% and 9%, respectively [3] Group 2: Financial Institutions and Investment Behavior - Financial investment institutions are actively deploying capital, showing a cautious yet progressive investment approach amid macroeconomic uncertainties [4] - The role of financial investment institutions in supporting corporate development is becoming increasingly critical, with sustained high demand for key assets [5] Group 3: Corporate Strategies for Value Creation - Corporate spin-offs and organizational streamlining are essential strategies for unlocking shareholder value, particularly in a favorable interest rate environment and recovering stock markets [6] - In response to de-globalization trends, companies are simplifying their structures to mitigate risks and enhance value, with geopolitical tensions and regional regulatory differences driving businesses to reorganize by region [7] Group 4: Regional M&A Dynamics - The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing a dual acceleration in both cross-border and local M&A activities, as companies seek to diversify revenue sources and expand into high-growth emerging markets [8]

在高盛对历史性的美国就业数据修正发出警告后，有"华尔街神算子"之称的金融市场研究机构Fundstrat 联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee表示，美联储政策即将转向。 Tom Lee表示："美联储有双重使命：就业和通胀。高盛指出，这些就业数据修正幅度如此之大是57年 来从未见过的。这强化了劳动力市场偏离美联储使命的程度，且比美联储意识到的要严重。"他补充 称："对我来说，美联储政策转向即将到来，这将支持更高市盈率。"他这番言论暗示，随着较低的利率 降低贴现率并增加投资者对风险资产的兴趣，股票估值可能会上升。 市场的降息预期在上周五美国7月非农就业数据公布后已迅速升温。数据显示，美国7月非农就业新增人 数仅为7.3万人，远不及市场预期，且5、6月的非农就业新增人数均被大幅下修。这份最新的就业数据 释放出了美国经济疲弱的信号。市场目前已经完全消化了美联储12月底前降息两次的预期。 前美国财政部长萨默斯警告称，美国经济"比我们想象的更接近停滞"，并提到了经济衰退的可能性。密 歇根大学经济学家Betsey Stevenson则将美国劳动力市场的疲软与当前影响教育、政府、建筑和酒店业 的行政政策联系起来。 高盛经济学家强 ...

（原标题：伟伟道来｜ 如何面对8月7日之后的世界） 已经和美国达成关税协议的国家，要向美国缴纳3种费用：一是输美商品被征收关税，二是承诺向美国 投资，三是承诺购买数额巨大的美国商品。 4个月的关税战中出现了一些匪夷所思的现象，尤其是特朗普的率性而为、朝令夕改给人印象深刻，但 总体而言，美国政府的逻辑是清晰的、步骤是正常的，也基本取得了他们希望取得的结果。 至于这个结果对美国及全世界而言利弊如何，众声喧哗、莫衷一是。 笔者试分析如下： 第一，美国的关税围墙既然立起来了，就不大可能降低或撤销。接下来，如何进入、经营美国市场，是 企业各显神通的时候了。 关税围墙既立，关税收入将大幅度提高，这个效果可以说是立竿见影。事实上，从4月份开始，美国的 关税收入已经节节攀升了。根据美国财政部公布的数据，4月份美国海关净收入为156亿美元，5月份为 222亿美元，6月份为273亿美元。摩根士丹利在其最新研报中预测，美国海关净收入年化后高达3270亿 美元。 可以预料的是，2028年之后，不论谁当美国总统，这块每年3000多亿美元的蛋糕，美国政府只会想办法 让其增加，不可能减少。 不出意外的话，8月7日之后，由美国总统特朗普发起 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sibo Holding, a Hong Kong boutique investment bank and financial services provider, has filed for an IPO with the SEC, aiming to raise up to $7 million [1] Company Overview - Sibo Holding operates through its subsidiary StormHarbour HK, which has raised over $900 million for clients through various transactions over the past three years [1] - The company generates revenue primarily from service fees and commissions, including those earned as an introductory broker [1] Business Segments - StormHarbour HK divides its operations into two main segments: - Capital Markets, focusing on private equity, private debt financing, and financial advisory services [1] - Asset Management, which includes fund management, investment solutions, wealth management, and private banking account consulting [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of $7 million for the 12 months ending December 31, 2024 [1] IPO Details - Sibo Holding plans to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SIBO and submitted its application confidentially on March 25, 2025 [1] - R.F. Lafferty is the sole bookrunner for this transaction [1]

点击小程序查看报告原文 近年来，欧盟成员国财政体系正经历深刻变革。 自欧债危机后建立的严格财政纪律框架，在疫情冲击、能源危机及俄乌冲突的连续压力下被迫阶段性突 破，暴露了原有规则在公共投资、战略自主与危机响应上的结构性缺陷。2024年新版《稳定与增长公约》改革标志着欧盟财政治理的重要转向，但这一改 革未触及3%赤字率与60%债务率的核心红线，中期内超三分之一国家计划削减国内资助的公共投资，难以弥合欧洲长期存在的投资缺口。德国虽突破性 修改宪法"债务刹车"机制，设立万亿欧元特别基金支持国防与基建，但法国、意大利和西班牙等大国却深陷高债务与高宏观税负的困境，增量改革空间有 限，更多需要在财政重整、结构性改革等诸多方面寻求平衡与空间。 在成员国外，欧盟超国家主权层面的预算同步开启深度重构。 现行2021-2027年多年财政框架（MFF）叠加"下一代欧盟"（NGEU）计划形成超2万亿欧元 资金池，但难以匹配绿色转型、数字主权与安全防务的新优先级。2028-2034年新MFF提案试图突破瓶颈，如拓展自有资源收入渠道、设立欧洲竞争力基 金聚焦产业前沿、建立常态化4000亿欧元危机贷款机制等，但这一雄心受制于成员国分歧，未 ...

Group 1 - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore ISI have issued warnings about the current valuation of the U.S. stock market, suggesting a potential significant correction is imminent [1][3][4] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, driven by trends such as artificial intelligence, declining inflation expectations, and bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, but recent economic data raises concerns [3][4] - Morgan Stanley's chief strategist Mike Wilson predicts a possible decline of up to 10% in the S&P 500 index due to rapid market gains, while Evercore ISI suggests a more aggressive correction of 15% [3][4] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank highlights that the stock market's nearly one-sided rise over the past three months indicates a short-term adjustment is imminent, with investor confidence and positioning levels nearing extremes [4] - The current valuation increase is not supported by broad earnings growth, as significant capital has flowed into a few tech-heavy stocks, creating structural vulnerabilities in the market [4] - Some analysts believe the upcoming correction may be more of a technical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, but market sentiment often shifts when investors are least vigilant [4][5] Group 3 - The market is pricing in at least one rate cut from the Federal Reserve this year, contingent on a "moderate slowdown" in the economy rather than a sudden halt [5] - If employment or consumer data continues to deteriorate without action from the Federal Reserve, the market may reassess the likelihood of a "soft landing," which could lead to volatility [5] - Vatee suggests that the next few trading weeks will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the current bull market, urging investors to focus on fundamentals and prepare for potential fluctuations [5]

黄金方面： 智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，倘若特朗普对俄罗斯的二级制裁没有落地，那么印度以及东方大国将继续大幅购买俄罗斯石 油，叠加在第二季度中国和印度已经囤了大量的石油，后续原油需求降低叠加产油国加大增产，油价将进一步下行，甚至有跌 破60美元的风险。 倘若美国对俄罗斯二级制裁落地，那么印度购买俄罗斯石油可能减少150万-200万桶/日，东方大国从俄罗斯购油量也会有一定的 影响，叠加产油国本身的补偿性减产协议，产油国增产幅度将达不到220万桶/日，难以弥补俄油缺口，则油价极有可能再度强 势走高。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情下行，显示近期行情偏弱势，指标上看，行情处于62日均线下方运行，警惕进一步下行 风险，日内关注下方65美元一线支撑情况。 日经225方面： 日线上，行情回调测试62日均线获得支撑并且收阳线，显示短期回调有望企稳，后续进一步走高机会较大。日内关注下方40400 一线支撑情况。 周一（8月4日）公布美国6月工厂订单月率录得-4.8%，市场预期-4.8%，前值8.3%。美国6月工厂订单月率虽然符合市场预期， 但远低于前值的8.3%，暗示在特朗普的关税政策之下，美国制造业极有可能面临衰退风险 ...