今年首11月共录得约4500万访港旅客人次，同比增加12%，亦已超越2024 年全年访港旅客量的总数。 首11月访港中国内地旅客占约3450万人次，同比多11%；非中国内地旅客录得约1000万人次，同比增加 16%，其中，短途及长途市场均录得接近两成增长。 智通财经APP获悉，香港旅发局公布，11月初步访港旅客数字为418.92万人次，同比升17%。其中内地 旅客304.13万人次，同比增19%，非中国内地旅客114.79万人次，同比增14%。 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通策略方奕，作者：方奕、张逸飞、陶前陈、苏徽 摘要 在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球 区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误， 2025年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长），并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策 预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下，2026年初中国央行降息预期有望提高。在交易层面，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金 回流有望改善市场流动性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始了。 春季行情规律：大盘搭台小盘唱戏 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference held on December 11-12, 2025, emphasized a moderate policy tone focusing on internal conditions and long-term issues, shifting from "stability while seeking progress" to "maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency" [3][4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidies to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [4][5] - The conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand, with specific measures to stabilize investment and promote service consumption through reforms [4][6] Group 2 - The central government aims to address "involution" competition through long-term institutional reforms, indicating a reliance on supply-side measures to boost Producer Price Index (PPI) recovery [5] - Risk prevention and resolution priorities have shifted, with continued policies in real estate and debt management, including reforms to the housing provident fund system [5][6] - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a key focus, with policies targeting healthcare, education, employment, and medical care to enhance both quantity and quality of supply [6] Group 3 - The economic outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for a gradual reduction in interest rates and a focus on stabilizing investment and consumption, particularly in the real estate sector [10][12] - The report suggests a favorable environment for sectors such as technology, finance, and consumer goods, with specific recommendations for investments in AI, financial services, and cyclical consumer stocks [12] - The agricultural sector, particularly dairy and beef, is expected to see a recovery in prices and profitability due to supply-side adjustments and demand growth, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is set to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a focus on technology, brokerage insurance, and consumption sectors [5][6]. Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, but recent trends indicate a recovery, particularly in the ChiNext Index. The team believes that the market consensus is overly pessimistic regarding policy interpretations, and anticipates a more optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and promoting investment [6][10]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, marking a shift towards stabilizing investment and addressing real estate inventory issues [6][10]. Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December to April, with a notable shift in focus from large-cap to small-cap stocks post-Spring Festival. The article highlights the importance of this period for positioning in the market, especially for sectors with strong industrial trends [7][10]. Industry Comparisons - The article identifies key sectors for investment: 1. **Technology Growth**: AI advancements and infrastructure shortages present opportunities in internet, media, and computing sectors, as well as manufacturing with global competitive advantages [8][16]. 2. **Financial Sector**: Capital market reforms are expected to boost brokerage and insurance sectors, enhancing their investment appeal [8][19]. 3. **Cyclical Consumption**: After three years of adjustment, the consumption sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism [8][19]. Thematic Recommendations - **Commercial Aerospace**: The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket and accelerated satellite networking present investment opportunities in aerospace infrastructure and technology [21][22]. - **Energy Transition**: The focus on expanding green energy applications and building a new energy system highlights investment potential in smart grids and new energy storage solutions [23][24]. - **AI Applications**: The push for AI integration across industries suggests significant growth potential in internet and data center sectors [24]. - **Domestic Consumption**: The emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing consumer spending indicates opportunities in sports events, tourism, and emerging consumer goods [25][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in outbound travel enthusiasm among Chinese tourists during the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by a long holiday and flexible leave options [1] - Travel platforms report a notable rise in flight and accommodation bookings, with popular destinations being nature and leisure-oriented [1][5] - There is a strong demand for family trips and group travel among tourists, indicating a shift in travel preferences [1][5] Group 2 - During the 2026 Spring Festival, flight bookings for popular outbound destinations increased by 80.2% year-on-year, while hotel bookings surged by 120% [5] - Destinations such as Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Australia, and Spain are among the most favored by travelers [5] - There is a growing interest in long-haul destinations and personalized small group tours, with early bookings exceeding expectations [7] Group 3 - The search volume for accommodations during the Spring Festival has doubled year-on-year, with New Zealand, Norway, Thailand, Italy, and Australia being top searched locations [7] - Outdoor activities and experiences, such as hiking and aurora viewing, are increasingly popular among travelers, particularly families [9] - New Zealand has emerged as a top destination for both adventure seekers and families traveling with children [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A shares fluctuated last week, with the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performing well. It is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets [1][3][4]. - In the stock market, China's stock market is expected to enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. In the bond market, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable in 2026, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue [14][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: A shares fluctuated last week (20251208 - 20251212). The communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34% to 3889.35, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries rose and 22 fell. The top - performing industries were communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment, with weekly increases of 6.27%, 2.8%, 2.63%, 1.38%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market rose. On December 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the November 2025 price data. The CPI rebounded to 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell to - 2.2% year - on - year. The overall price level still needed to be boosted. The new progress of Vanke's bond extension drove the bond market to recover and rise. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds all declined [8]. - **US Stock Market**: US stocks fluctuated. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday, which was in line with market expectations. However, on Friday, negative news from two major technology giants, Broadcom and Oracle, triggered concerns about the AI bubble again. Coupled with some Fed officials' opposition to easing monetary policy, the technology sector was under significant pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.63%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.62% [6][9]. - **Commodity Market**: Oil prices fell, and gold and silver prices rose. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2026, the global oil supply would exceed demand by 381.5 million barrels per day. The energy index fell 6.42%, and the prices of various oil products declined. The precious metals index rose 2.38%, with COMEX gold rising 2.05% and COMEX silver rising 5.13% [9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 0.38% last week. Some funds heavily invested in overseas computing power, chip semiconductors, and other sectors performed well. Index funds related to communication equipment, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors performed well [6][10][11]. - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.07% last week. Among them, partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in sectors such as electronics and military industry performed well [10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Among QDII funds, those mainly investing in the global technology field performed well. Equity - type QDII funds fell 1% last week, and QDII bond - type funds fell 0.07% [12]. - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money funds was 1.21%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 0.8%, and commodity - type funds rose 0.84% [12][13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The Fed chair's replacement may affect the pace of interest rate cuts. It is predicted that US bond yields will first decline and then rise in 2026, and US stocks will still have continuous support [14]. - **Stock Market**: China's stock market will enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. It is recommended to focus on technology, securities, and some consumer sectors [14][15]. - **Bond Market**: In 2026, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue. It is recommended to mainly focus on short - and medium - term credit sinking to dig for coupons and pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - and long - term bonds at phased highs caused by events or policy shocks [15][16]. - **Fund Investment**: For stock - hybrid funds, it is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets. For bond funds, it is recommended to focus on flexible fixed - income products. For money funds, there are no trending investment opportunities. For commodity funds, gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated [4][17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **Regulatory Policy**: The regulatory authorities issued the "Draft for Soliciting Opinions on the Code of Conduct for the Sale of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", aiming to standardize the fund sales behaviors of fund companies' direct sales and agency sales institutions [18]. - **Industry Development**: The public fund index - enhancement business has entered a fast - track development. As of December 10, 168 new index - enhancement funds have been established this year, with a total new - issuance scale of over 92 billion yuan, exceeding the total new - issuance of index - enhancement products in the past three years [20]. - **New Fund Products**: 23 new funds were established last week, with an average subscription period of about 13 days and an average raised share of 792 million shares, with a total raised share of 18.218 billion shares [21]. - **Fund Dividends**: 84 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable one is Huashang Advantage Industry A, which will distribute a dividend of 2.347 yuan per 10 shares [22].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误，2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长）， 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下， ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]

Group 1 - The tourism industry in Japan is experiencing significant declines due to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with many cancellations of bookings from Chinese tourists [1][2] - In the Kansai region, over 50% of bookings were canceled in November, and December bookings are nearly nonexistent, comparable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - A bus tour company reported only three to four groups booked for December, down from 100 groups in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Hotel bookings from Chinese tourists dropped by 57% during the week of November 21-27 compared to the previous week, indicating a severe impact on the hotel industry [2] - A hotel in Osaka, which previously had 20% of its guests from China, expects a 20% decline in revenue for December compared to the previous year [2][4] - The Kansai International Airport saw a 10% decrease in round-trip flights between Japan and China in November, with 34% of flights canceled for December [5][6] Group 3 - The number of winter flights between Japan and China is expected to decrease by an average of 28% starting January, with significant cancellations already reported [6] - Major hotels in Hokkaido are also seeing a rise in cancellations from Chinese tourists for January and February, affecting winter tourism [7] - The overall impact of these cancellations is spreading to various sectors, including department stores, which are also reporting lower sales [5][7]

Core Insights - The "English Inbound Tour Guide Boost Plan" has been officially launched by Jingqi, aiming to establish a high-standard, effective training brand for inbound tour guides in Beijing [1][3] Group 1: Program Overview - The plan is centered around the "Dou Junjie National Gold Medal Tour Guide Studio" and includes a year-round systematic advanced course curriculum [1][3] - The course design moves away from traditional theoretical teaching, introducing a "thematic deepening + immersive scene" offline communication model [3] Group 2: Cultural Experience Focus - Starting in 2026, the program will focus monthly on a core cultural theme, such as exploring the craftsmanship of cloisonné at the enamel factory and understanding the heritage of century-old brands in Duyi [3] - The initiative aims to transform the role of tour guides from "sightseeing narrators" to "designers of cultural experiences" and "empathizers of Chinese narratives" [3] Group 3: Required Skill Sets - Dou Junjie emphasizes the need for international tour guides to develop a composite capability system known as "three hard and four soft" skills [5] - The "three hard skills" include solid language proficiency, extensive interdisciplinary knowledge, and exceptional personalized service [5] - The "four soft skills" focus on becoming a resonator of industry development, an empathizer for tourists, a practitioner of Chinese narrative methodologies, and a pioneer in resource integration and value creation [5]