供应压力有限，局部现货价格上涨 市场分析 石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-02 1、7月1日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3562元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨6元/吨，涨幅0.17%； 持仓226856手，环比下降8327手，成交155844手，环比下降9208手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日西北、华北以及山东市场沥青现货价格均出现上涨，川渝地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价 格大体企稳，部分地区主营炼厂上调沥青结算价格。沥青盘面则延续震荡态势，波动率较小。就沥青自身基本面 而言，多空因素交织，缺乏突出矛盾。具体来看，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后， 炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体 增量并不多，当前沥青供应压力有限。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为 谨慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hubei Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in fuel prices, with 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel rising by 0.19 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter respectively, effective from July 1, 2025 [1][2]. Price Adjustment Details - The new prices for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel will be 7.37 yuan, 7.89 yuan, and 7.00 yuan per liter respectively after the adjustment [1]. - This marks the 13th price adjustment in 2025, with a total of six increases, resulting in a pattern of "six increases, five decreases, and two stasis" for the year [4]. Market Outlook - Domestic analysts predict that due to the recent easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict and OPEC+ production increases, international oil prices may face downward pressure, suggesting a higher likelihood of price reductions in the next adjustment cycle [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for major oil companies to ensure stable supply and compliance with national pricing policies, while local authorities are urged to enhance market supervision [5][6].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical index experienced a comprehensive increase, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 3.31%, chemical machinery index by 1.06%, pharmaceutical index by 1.06%, and pesticide and fertilizer index by 2.54% [1] - In contrast, the oil sector saw a decline, with the oil processing index down by 0.91%, oil extraction index down by 3.26%, and oil trading index down by 6.96% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices significantly decreased, with WTI settling at $65.52 per barrel, down 12.56% from June 20, and Brent at $67.77 per barrel, down 12% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included butanone up by 101.77%, liquid chlorine up by 7.35%, and isooctyl acrylate up by 5.71% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included US light crude down by 12.56%, vitamin D3 down by 12.50%, and propane down by 9.17% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five gaining listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included Dazhongnan up by 50%, Taihe Technology up by 48.09%, and Tiancheng New Materials up by 31.41% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Tongyuan Petroleum down by 19.75%, Jinniu Chemical down by 14.44%, and Beiken Energy down by 17.74% [2]

Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, three soft indicators showed divergence: EPMI and BCI declined, while manufacturing PMI increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, indicating mixed economic signals in the manufacturing sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Analysis - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to sample differences, with EPMI focusing on strategic emerging industries and BCI primarily representing private small and medium enterprises. The structure of June's PMI indicates that large enterprises are experiencing improved conditions, while small enterprises are facing downturns [4][5]. - In June, large enterprises' PMI was 51.2, up from 50.7; medium enterprises' PMI was 48.6, up from 47.5; and small enterprises' PMI was 47.3, down from 49.3, highlighting the disparity in performance across different enterprise sizes [5]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Significant increases in PMI were observed in the petroleum processing, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective increases of 8.6, 7.2, and 4.0 points. These changes are expected to have a notable impact on overall data due to the substantial contribution of these industries to manufacturing value added [6][8]. - The rise in the petroleum and chemical sectors is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly due to recent increases in international crude oil prices [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Expectations - Manufacturing employment and enterprise expectations both saw declines in June, indicating a slowdown in internal economic momentum when excluding the impacts of commodity price fluctuations [8][10]. - The manufacturing employment index was reported at 47.9, down from 48.1, while the production and business activity expectation index was at 52.0, down from 52.5, reflecting cautious sentiment among manufacturers [9][10]. Group 4: Positive Signals - Despite some negative indicators, there were positive signals in June, such as a slight increase in new export orders to 47.7, which contrasts with the direction of EPMI export orders, suggesting potential for future verification [11]. - The construction sector also showed improvement, with the construction PMI rising by 1.8 points to 52.8, driven by better orders and business activity expectations, likely influenced by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10][12].

Group 1 - In the first five months of 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province reached 369,000 tons, representing a 16.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 4.7 percentage points higher than in 2024, and 21.0 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production from large-scale industrial enterprises in China during the same period was 13,124,000 tons, with Hebei's share being 2.8% [1] Group 2 - In May 2025, the petroleum coke production in Hebei Province was 72,000 tons, which is a decrease of 4.6% compared to May 2024, with a growth rate 106.4 percentage points lower than in 2024, but still 3.4 percentage points higher than the national average [2] - The national petroleum coke production for May 2025 was 2,469,000 tons, with Hebei's contribution being 2.9% [2]

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that 博汇股份 is taking multiple measures to address its declining performance, including accelerating global sourcing, improving product quality, and expanding into international markets [1] - 博汇股份 is engaging in commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [1] - The company plans to issue 73,644,312 shares to state-owned enterprises, which will increase state ownership to approximately 33.13% after the conversion of convertible bonds [1] - 博汇股份 has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, 无锡极致液冷科技有限公司, to enter the liquid cooling industry, optimizing its business structure and creating new growth potential [1] Group 2 - 深圳市凯丰投资管理有限公司 is a macro-hedge fund management company that invests in global bulk commodities, bonds, equity assets, and their derivatives [2] - 凯丰投资 has received multiple awards for its fund management, including "2014年度金牛私募管理公司（宏观期货策略）" and "2015年度金牛私募管理公司（宏观期货策略）" [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of detailed industry research and aims to strengthen communication and cooperation with real enterprises to provide comprehensive solutions within the industry chain [2]

Group 1: Company Strategies for Sustainable Development - The company is accelerating global sourcing efforts to enhance the procurement of raw materials, aiming to improve cost-effectiveness through AI-driven market analysis systems [2][3] - Focus on R&D in specialized oils and new chemical materials to enhance product quality and increase added value, with transformer oil being a key product for future cooling applications [2][3] - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Wuxi to explore liquid cooling business, optimizing its business structure and expanding market reach [3][4] Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Strategies - The company engages in commodity futures hedging to mitigate risks from price fluctuations in raw materials and products, utilizing approved futures exchanges for transactions [3] - Plans to issue up to 73,644,312 shares to state-owned assets, which, combined with transferred shares, will result in state ownership of approximately 33.13% of the company [3] - The company is awaiting approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the issuance of A-shares to specific investors [3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Product Development - The company is the only private refinery in China operating bonded high-sulfur fuel oil, breaking the reliance on imports for this product [3] - Continuous process optimization is being implemented to enhance product quality stability and increase capacity utilization [3] - The establishment of the Wuxi subsidiary will provide comprehensive liquid cooling management solutions, contributing to the company's growth potential [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. It's expected to remain strong in Q3 due to peak - season power generation demand and geopolitical policy games, and become looser in Q4 as demand fades and supply returns. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4][63]. - For investment strategies, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3 for arbitrage, and there are no options recommendations [5][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was supported by supply in Q1 2025, with main suppliers like Russia, Iran, and Mexico having supply issues. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and Egypt bought large amounts for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak overall, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong in Q3 due to power generation demand and geopolitical factors, and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. In Q1, supply - side issues in Russia, Iran, and Mexico supported the market. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and supply tightened. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [9][10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - **High - sulfur supply**: - Russia's supply was restricted by sanctions and bombings in H1 2025, and is expected to remain below 300 tons/month in H2. - Mexico's high - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation and is expected to be stable. - Middle - East high - sulfur exports had a monthly gap of about 400,000 tons in H1 2025 compared to previous years, mainly due to Iran. It's expected to be restricted in Q3 and recover in Q4 [18][22][28]. - **Low - sulfur supply**: - South Sudan's low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is recovering, and export tenders continue. - Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery has stable supply. - Nigeria's Dangote refinery has unstable gasoline unit operation, with sufficient short - term low - sulfur supply [50][52][54]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - **High - sulfur demand**: - High - sulfur marine fuel demand is stably supported by the growth of desulfurization tower - equipped ships. - China's refinery high - sulfur feed demand is expected to slightly recover in H2. - High - sulfur power generation demand in summer 2025 exceeded expectations and is expected to remain strong in Q3 [34][38][45]. - **Low - sulfur demand**: - There is no specific driving force for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable. - China's low - sulfur market has abundant quotas, and production is stable [56][58]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong before Q3 and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - Strategy recommendations: - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [63].

Group 1 - Shandong Molong experienced a rapid decline, with its increase narrowing to within 30% [1]