Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market rose due to the overnight announcement of Jiangte Motor's production line maintenance and the fermentation of the anti-involution logic. The spot market also slightly followed the increase. The downstream's willingness to accept the price was low, but the procurement intention improved marginally. The rising price of lithium carbonate drove the profit repair of the upstream resource end and salt factories, but the price performance was suppressed by the arbitrage space. However, under the current sentiment, lithium carbonate is expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures opened higher. The main contract reached a maximum of 74,480 and closed at 72,880. The total position increased by 40,000 hands to 718,000 hands. The spot price of electric carbon rose by 1,100 to 69,100. The downstream's acceptance of the price was low, but the procurement intention improved. The price of Australian ore rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 767.5 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica rose by 45 to 1,590 yuan/ton. The production profit of salt factories using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 833 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt factories using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 5,969 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industry News - Argentina's CAMMESA's first-round battery energy storage system tender received 27 projects from 15 companies, totaling 1.3 GW of bidding plans, far exceeding the 500 MW tender capacity. The winning results are expected to be announced in August 2025, and the contracts will be signed in September [14]. - On the morning of July 17, Jiangsu Weili Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched a project with a total investment of 500 million yuan to process 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials per year. The first phase is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue of 550 million yuan and more than 200 new jobs [15].

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 晨报近期持续强调积极布局，周二大盘延续强 势。收盘恒生指数涨 0.54%报 25130 点，恒生科 技指数涨 0.38%，恒生国企指数涨 0.39%。大市成 交 2660.73 亿港元，南向资金净流入 27.17 亿港 元。周期股继续引领涨势，有色、能源行业涨幅 居前，赣锋锂业(1772HK)、兖矿能源(1171HK)涨 近 9%，地产、消费板块造好。晨报本周推荐的基 建龙头公司中国中铁(0390HK)周二大涨 4.5%,两 个交易日累涨 8.3%。 美股市场 1. 继标普 500 指数和纳指周一创下新高後，投资者 着眼最新企业季 ...

Group 1 - A-share companies are increasingly focusing on mid-term profit distribution, with 329 companies announcing plans for 2025 mid-term dividends as of July 22, indicating a trend towards high-frequency dividends and high dividend yield stocks gaining investor favor [1] - Insurance companies have made 21 equity stakes this year, with a notable preference for high dividend stocks, reflecting a long-term investment strategy that aligns with their need for stable returns [2][9] - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a price increase driven by multiple factors, with several lithium mining companies reporting positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, indicating a recovery in the sector [3] Group 2 - Nearly 800 billion yuan has flowed into Hong Kong's stock market through ETFs this year, with significant investments in technology and internet sectors, highlighting a strong preference for these industries among investors [4] - The bond ETF market has seen rapid growth, surpassing 500 billion yuan in total scale, driven by policy support and increased market activity, indicating a robust demand for bond investment products [5] - The social retail sales total in China reached 24.5458 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with expectations for the annual total to exceed 50 trillion yuan, driven by factors such as consumption scene innovation and subsidy policies [6] Group 3 - Overseas institutions have focused their research on 93 companies, primarily in the electronics sector, which has shown significant recovery and growth potential due to trends in artificial intelligence and consumer electronics [8] - The insurance sector's equity investments have reached a five-year high, with a notable increase in stakes across various industries, including banking and public utilities, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-yield investments [9] - The black commodity market, particularly for coke and coal, is experiencing a price rebound, with expectations for further price increases, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [10] Group 4 - Local governments are actively establishing funds to support the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, aiming to address challenges in commercializing innovations and enhancing resource allocation in key industries [11][13] - The commercial insurance market for new energy vehicles has seen a significant increase in premium income, with a 41.44% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong market demand and improving risk management [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant recovery in the lithium carbonate market, driven by multiple factors, including supply disruptions and positive market sentiment [1][2][4] - As of July 21, the domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price reached 66,800 yuan/ton, up from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton on June 9, marking an increase of over 11% [1] - The main contract price for lithium carbonate (2509) has risen by 22.32% since June 23, reflecting strong market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Several lithium mining concept stocks have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, with Tianqi Lithium and Weiling Co. achieving profitability [3] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year, attributed to improved pricing cycles and currency gains [3] - Weiling Co. anticipates a net profit of 0 to 5 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 51 million yuan, due to diversification into multi-metal mining [3] Group 3 - The A-share market related to lithium mining has seen a rise, with the Wind lithium battery concept index increasing by 19.63% since June [2] - On July 22, the index rose by 1.58%, with significant gains from stocks like Xianhui Technology (up 15.48%) and others reaching their daily limit [2] - The growth in new energy vehicle sales, which accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales in the first half of 2025, is driving demand for lithium batteries and supporting lithium carbonate prices [2] Group 4 - The current lithium price is experiencing wide fluctuations, with a notable rebound, supported by downstream purchasing and rising mineral costs [4] - Despite the positive sentiment, the supply side faces challenges in effectively reducing output, while demand remains stable, leading to a likely continuation of price oscillation [4][5] - The market is characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" dynamic, with short-term supply disruptions still influencing market sentiment [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, the market sentiment is strong, and rumors support the futures price. However, the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis of the spot to the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate warrant production and reduce the risk of a short squeeze [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 68,000 with a rise of 1,350; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 66,350 with a rise of 1,300 [1]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 730 with a rise of 19; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 990 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 1545 with a rise of 40; lithiophilite (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 5175 with a rise of 225; lithiophilite (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price with a rise of 320; phospho - lithiophilite has an average price of 6075 with a rise of 250 [1][2]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts 2508, 2509, 2510, 2511, and 2512 are 71,260 (2.36%), 71,280 (2.53%), 70,520 (2.5%), 70,200 (2.69%), and 70,140 (2.57%) respectively [1]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) is 32,075; the average prices of ternary materials 811 (polycrystalline/power - type), 613 (single - crystal/power - type), 523 (single - crystal/power - type) are 142,650, 120,175, and 115,195 respectively [2]. Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of downstream is 41,271 tons with an increase of 506 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,310 tons with an increase of 1,880 tons; the daily registered warrant is 9,969 tons with a decrease of 270 tons; the weekly inventory of smelters is 58,039 tons with a decrease of 559 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 66,602; the profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate is not given; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 71,484; the profit of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is - 6,008 [2]. Policy and Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The Fourth Central Steering Group carried out a special research and discussion on rectifying the irrational competition in the new energy vehicle industry [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. There is a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a positive cycle of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost curve is flattening, driving the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disturbances, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and cost reduction due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,600 yuan (2.24%) and a weekly increase of 6,220 yuan (9.33%). The trading volume is 1,118,226 lots, with a daily increase of 270,076 lots (31.84%) and a weekly increase of 354,198 lots (46.36%). The open interest is 411,638 lots, with a daily increase of 30,453 lots (7.99%) and a weekly increase of 69,492 lots (20.31%) [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: LC08 - 11 is 1,000 yuan, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 5.66%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (31.58%); LC09 - 11 is 1,080 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 520 yuan (93%); LC11 - 12 is 20 yuan, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan (- 67%) and a weekly decrease of 360 yuan (- 106%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,590 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 45 yuan (2.91%) and a weekly increase of 140 yuan (9.66%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,445 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 145 yuan (2.74%) and a weekly increase of 470 yuan (9.45%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.66%) and a weekly increase of 4,150 yuan (6.56%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.62%) and a weekly increase of 4,200 yuan (6.47%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 32,340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 265 yuan (0.83%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 28,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan (0.88%) [22][23]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis Data**: The comprehensive basis quote of four materials for LC2507 is - 212.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 287.5 yuan [26]. - **Warrant Data**: The total number of warrants is 9,969, a decrease of 270 from the previous day. For example, the number of warrants at Wugang Wuxi decreased from 20 to 0, and at Waiyun Longquanyi decreased from 1,530 to 1,260 [31]. Cost and Profit No specific numerical summaries are provided in the text for cost and profit, only the presentation of relevant charts, including the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%), the production profit from purchased lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to continuous disturbances on the supply - side, such as lithium ore approval issues and salt factory production cuts, along with a positive overall commodity sentiment recently, the lithium carbonate futures market is showing a strong trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 71,160 yuan/ton and closed at 71,280 yuan/ton, a 2.53% decline from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 848,150 lots, and the open interest was 381,185 lots (377,305 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 2,960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 9,969 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is between 67,000 - 69,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is between 65,850 - 66,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 758 US dollars/ton, an increase of 28 US dollars/ton. Although downstream material factories' acceptance of current prices remains low, their purchasing willingness has marginally improved due to the rising market trend and continuous inventory digestion [1] Supply - side Situation - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are the main importing countries, accounting for 79%. The import volume from Australia was about 256,000 tons, a 31% decrease; from Zimbabwe, it was about 101,000 tons, a 3% increase; from South Africa, it was 98,000 tons, an 87% increase; and from Nigeria, it was 78,600 tons, a 21% increase [2] - Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli plans to shut down for equipment maintenance to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment. The shutdown will cover all lithium salt production lines, with no impact on existing sales contracts and future supply. The maintenance is expected to start on July 25, 2025, and last about 26 days [2] Strategy - Given the positive overall commodity sentiment and continuous supply - side disturbances, the lithium carbonate futures market is strong. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose, driven by expectations of a new round of supply-side reform. Total positions increased by 17,000 to 678,000, while total trading volume decreased, indicating reduced trading enthusiasm. Spot prices followed the upward trend, with electric carbon rising by 1,350 to 68,000. Although downstream material manufacturers' acceptance of current price levels remains low, their purchasing willingness has marginally improved due to the continuous upward market trend and inventory digestion. Some enterprises' rigid purchasing needs are supporting the market price, pushing up the central price of carbonate lithium spot transactions [11]. - Import Data: In June 2025, China imported 576,000 tons of spodumene, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month. The import volume of ore remains at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals are still weak. The entire carbonate lithium industry chain faces serious problems of overcapacity and price competition [11]. - Market Outlook: The expected inflection point of carbonate lithium futures has preceded the fundamentals. It is expected that the futures price will rise, but the upward trend may be tortuous due to the drag of spot prices [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Spodumene Import: In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was approximately 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month, equivalent to 46,000 tons of LCE. Lithium ore from Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa accounted for 79%. The import volume from Australia was about 256,000 tons, a 31% decrease from the previous month; from Zimbabwe, it was about 101,000 tons, a 3% increase; from South Africa, it was 98,000 tons, an 87% increase. Additionally, the import volume from Nigeria was about 79,000 tons, a 21% increase [14]. - Lithium Hydroxide Trade: In June 2025, China exported 6,260 tons of lithium hydroxide, a 12% increase from the previous month but a 56% decrease from the same period last year. Exports to South Korea and Japan accounted for 96% of the total export volume. The export volume to South Korea was 5,130 tons, a 51% increase from May but a 51% decrease from the same period last year; to Japan, it was 876 tons, a 50% decrease from May and a 74% decrease from the same period last year. In June, China imported 1,482 tons of lithium hydroxide, a significant 76% increase from the previous month [14].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a temporary price increase, but the fundamental oversupply situation remains unchanged, indicating potential for future price declines [1][7]. Supply and Production - Lithium carbonate production capacity in China reached a new high, with total production capacity at 134,438 tons in May, a year-on-year increase of 45.68% [2]. - Battery-grade lithium carbonate production was 6,230 tons in May, up 29% year-on-year, while industrial-grade production was 20,507 tons, down 9% [2]. - Despite the increase in production capacity, the overall supply growth rate for both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate has shown significant slowdown [2]. Cost Dynamics - The prices of raw materials such as spodumene and lithium mica are declining, with spodumene priced at $629 per ton and lithium mica at 720 yuan per ton as of June 27 [3]. - The average production cost for companies using spodumene is approximately 69,600 yuan per ton, while those using lithium mica have a cost of about 56,300 yuan per ton [3]. - Current production costs for lithium carbonate are expected to decrease, but the support for prices from these costs is weakening [3]. Demand Trends - The growth rate of the new energy vehicle (NEV) market is expected to slow down, with NEV sales reaching 1.27 million units in May, a year-on-year increase of 35% [5]. - The market share of NEVs has increased significantly, but the growth rate is stabilizing around 40%, indicating potential for further declines in growth [5]. - The photovoltaic industry has also seen a slowdown in growth due to policy changes, which may impact the overall consumption of lithium carbonate [6]. Inventory Levels - As of May 30, lithium carbonate inventory stood at 97,637 tons, with smelter inventory at 55,391 tons and downstream inventory at 42,246 tons, reflecting a high level of inventory for the year [7]. - The current inventory levels suggest a continuation of the bearish fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Lithium and Rare Earth Industry**: The conference call primarily discusses the lithium and rare earth sectors, focusing on supply dynamics, pricing trends, and government regulations affecting these industries [1][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Tightening in Lithium**: The verification report for lithium reserves in Yichun, Jiangxi Province, may lead to some companies being unable to renew mining licenses on time, potentially affecting lithium carbonate production by approximately 20,000 tons per month, which could drive prices up [1][4]. - **Impact of Qinghai Salt Lake Production**: Companies in Qinghai are less affected by the recent regulatory changes, but there are concerns about overproduction and illegal mining practices that could pose risks to lithium supply [1][5]. - **Government Regulation Intent**: The government aims to optimize the lithium industry by eliminating loss-making capacities and better understanding national strategic metal reserves, which has contributed to a rebound in lithium prices from low levels [1][6]. - **Rare Earth Supply-Demand Shift**: Initially, there was an oversupply of rare earths in May, but a shift to a supply deficit is expected in Q3, which is likely to significantly boost prices, with prices for products like gadolinium oxide nearing 500,000 yuan per ton [1][9]. - **Geopolitical Factors Enhancing Rare Earth Value**: The U.S.-China trade tensions have led to a reassessment of the strategic value of rare earths, with China limiting exports and the U.S. supporting local industries, thus enhancing the valuation of the rare earth sector [1][10]. - **Market Sentiment in Rare Earths**: The auction of gadolinium and niobium metals on the Baotou exchange has led to a price increase, reflecting heightened market activity and confidence, with bullish sentiment prevailing [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Current Lithium Companies to Watch**: Companies such as Zhongmin Resources, Shengxing Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials are highlighted for their stable stock performance and future growth potential [1][7]. - **Rare Earth Market Trends**: The rare earth market has shown significant improvement, with a tightening supply situation compared to the previous year, leading to a positive price outlook [1][9][13]. - **Investment Opportunities in Rare Earths**: The rare earth magnetic materials sector is recommended for investment, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being noted for their potential [1][15][17]. - **Precious Metals Market Outlook**: The precious metals market, particularly silver and gold, is viewed optimistically due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with silver showing strong performance due to its dual financial and industrial attributes [2][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium and rare earth industries, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.