Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the number of IPOs by Chinese enterprises decreased slightly compared to the second half of 2024, but the fundraising amount approached 140 billion RMB, showing significant growth. The Hong Kong stock market has become the main financing channel for Chinese enterprises' IPOs [1]. Group 1: Overall IPO Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chinese enterprises completed a total of 129 IPOs globally, an increase of 34 compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The total fundraising amount for Chinese enterprises' global IPOs reached approximately 139.89 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 143.30% [4]. - The distribution of IPOs by market shows that A-shares had 48 listings, Hong Kong had 41, and overseas markets had 40 [7]. Group 2: Market-Specific IPO Details - In the A-share market, the fundraising amount was 38.00 billion RMB, up 25.53% year-on-year [10]. - The Hong Kong market saw a total fundraising of 95.68 billion RMB, a staggering increase of 738.75% compared to 2024 [10]. - The overseas market raised 6.21 billion RMB, which represents a decline of 60.64% year-on-year [10]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Fundraising - In terms of industry, the industrial sector raised 55.84 billion RMB, while the consumer discretionary sector raised 27.02 billion RMB [12]. - The top two companies by fundraising in the first half of 2025 were both listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Ningde Times raised 37.70 billion RMB and Hengrui Medicine raised 10.45 billion RMB [15]. Group 4: A-Share Market Insights - In the A-share market, 48 companies went public, with 27 in Q1 and 21 in Q2 [19]. - The fundraising amount in the A-share market was 38.00 billion RMB, with a decline of 25.87% in Q1 but a significant increase of 170.98% in Q2 [21]. - The majority of A-share IPOs came from the industrial sector, while the consumer discretionary sector had the highest fundraising amount of 13.14 billion RMB [28]. Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - In the Hong Kong market, 41 Chinese enterprises went public, with 16 in Q1 and 25 in Q2 [32]. - The total fundraising in the Hong Kong market was 95.68 billion RMB, with Q1 raising 16.80 billion RMB and Q2 raising 78.85 billion RMB [34]. - The industrial sector dominated the fundraising in Hong Kong, totaling 46.74 billion RMB [37]. Group 6: Overseas Market Insights - In the overseas market, all IPOs were completed in the US, with 1 company listed on the American Stock Exchange and 39 on NASDAQ [48]. - The total fundraising amount for overseas IPOs was 6.21 billion RMB, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [50]. - The consumer discretionary sector had the highest number of companies listed overseas, totaling 11, with a fundraising amount of 3.54 billion RMB [52].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major industry ETFs in the U.S. stock market shows mixed results, with regional banks and banking ETFs experiencing gains, while energy and semiconductor ETFs are declining [1]. Group 1: Regional Banks and Banking Sector - Regional bank ETF increased by 0.67%, closing at $59.85, with a trading volume of 601,400 shares and a year-to-date change of +0.52% [2]. - Banking sector ETF rose by 0.65%, reaching $56.10, with a trading volume of 39,594 shares and a year-to-date increase of +2.56% [2]. Group 2: Energy and Semiconductor Sectors - Energy sector ETF decreased by 0.55%, priced at $84.83, with a trading volume of 1,174,600 shares and a year-to-date change of +0.62% [2]. - Semiconductor ETF fell by 0.45%, trading at $277.18, with a volume of 354,000 shares and a significant year-to-date increase of +14.46% [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the new consumption sector, which is expected to experience a structural bull market due to anticipated economic recovery and policy support in the fourth quarter of 2024. [1][2] - The new consumption sector is characterized by a three-year investment cycle influenced by supply-demand dynamics and social changes. [4] Key Directions in New Consumption - Four main directions in the new consumption sector are identified: emotional value, overseas consumption, shared value, and channel transformation. [3] - Companies like Pop Mart, Ruoyuchen, and Wanren Group have shown exceptional performance since mid-2024, making them noteworthy investment targets. [1][3] Investment Strategy - The strategy for the second half of 2025 involves holding high-conviction leading companies while also focusing on emerging companies that may outperform the leaders. [11] - The investment approach combines Beta (market trends) and Alpha (individual company performance) to identify opportunities. [7][8] Market Dynamics - The new consumption sector is expected to transition through three stages: thematic investment, institutional comfort, and potential bubble formation. [5] - Traditional consumption sectors may present rebound opportunities, especially if they align with leading companies' performance. [6][17] Specific Investment Opportunities - Notable companies for investment include Pop Mart, Chaohongji, and Chenguang, which are expected to benefit from market recovery and structural opportunities. [12] - Emotional consumption companies with strong safety margins and good odds are also highlighted as potential investments. [13] Functional Value and Channel Transformation - AI integration in consumer products is identified as a strong trend, with companies like Kande Optical and Mousse showing promise in this area. [14] - Channel transformation is segmented into online channels, discount retail, and quality retail, with companies like Meituan and Hailan Home being key players. [15] Brand Expansion - Brand expansion is categorized into independent brand growth and OEM chain expansion, with companies like Hisense and TCL benefiting from increased market penetration. [16] - The potential for companies like Simoer International to enhance their market value through successful product reception in Japan is noted. [16] Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment is expected to weaken, leading to a shift in investment focus from Alpha to Beta for domestic demand and vice versa for external demand. [20] - The potential for price increases in consumer goods is highlighted, particularly if CPI returns to a normal range of 2-3%. [19] Future Investment Themes - Observing primary market investments can provide insights into emerging consumption themes for the secondary market. [23] - The third quarter is seen as a time for dividend opportunities, while the fourth quarter may yield excess returns across both traditional and emerging sectors. [22]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks have a relatively high medium to long-term allocation value due to their low absolute valuation and historical mid-to-high valuation percentiles [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The technology sector continues to present significant investment opportunities, supported by favorable policies, strong profit growth, and low historical valuations, indicating substantial future upside potential [1] - The consumer sector is expected to see improved earnings growth due to domestic consumption stimulus policies, with undervalued Hong Kong consumer stocks, particularly in the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption industries, likely to rise [1] - High dividend stocks can provide investors with stable returns amid domestic and international uncertainties [1]

Group 1 - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance in early trading, with the global airline industry ETF rising nearly 3% and the gold ETF declining over 2% [1] - The global airline ETF (JETS) increased by 0.65 to 22.64, reflecting a 2.96% rise [2] - The semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose by 7.16 to 269.08, marking a 2.73% increase [2] Group 2 - The regional bank ETF (KRE) saw an increase of 1.13 to 58.99, which is a 1.94% rise [2] - The global technology stock ETF (IXN) increased by 1.42 to 89.48, representing a 1.61% rise [2] - The technology sector ETF (XLK) rose by 3.23 to 246.11, indicating a 1.33% increase [2] Group 3 - The financial sector ETF (XLF) increased by 0.65 to 51.47, reflecting a 1.27% rise [2] - The network stock index ETF (FDN) rose by 2.79 to 259.38, marking a 1.09% increase [2] - The consumer discretionary ETF (XLY) decreased by 1.88 to 216.28, showing a decline of 0.88% [2] Group 4 - The utility ETF (XLU) increased by 0.34 to 81.58, reflecting a 0.41% rise [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on industries with marginal structural changes as the earnings forecast period approaches, suggesting that sectors with inventory depletion and contract liabilities are likely to see performance improvements [4] - The North American AI hardware supply chain is highlighted as a preferred investment area, along with sectors expected to report good earnings and reasonable valuations such as wind power, gaming, and pet industries [1][3] - The article discusses the potential for a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in electric vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, despite recent weakness due to liquidity tightening and increased share placements [1][3] Group 2 - The article notes that external risks, such as the potential for tariffs from the U.S. and the impact of tax legislation, could negatively affect non-U.S. markets [2] - It suggests that the trend of the U.S. dollar depreciating may benefit Chinese assets, with the Hong Kong market expected to see increased liquidity and investment opportunities as a result [5][6] - The article indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of the year, supported by policy measures and the expansion of equity funds [8] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are experiencing growth due to economic transformation and rising consumer income [9] - It suggests that the A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with external uncertainties and domestic demand issues impacting performance [10][13] - The article recommends focusing on defensive assets and sectors with high dividend yields, as well as technology and consumer sectors that are expected to benefit from policy support [8][12]

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Index, has shown a decline of 0.01% to 4146.62 points with a trading volume of 58.01 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 2.24%, and over the last three months, it has fallen by 11.73%, while year-to-date it has increased by 2.30% [1] - The index comprises companies involved in IoT-related information collection, transmission, and computing, reflecting the overall performance of IoT-related listed companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Luxshare Precision (5.52%), Midea Group (5.19%), Xiaomi Group-W (5.14%), Tencent Holdings (5.03%), Meituan-W (4.47%), Li Auto-W (4.38%), Xpeng Motors-W (4.13%), China Telecom (4.02%), Huichuan Technology (3.82%), and Zhongji Xuchuang (3.77%) [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is distributed as follows: Shenzhen Stock Exchange 41.44%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 32.67%, and Shanghai Stock Exchange 25.90% [1] Group 3 - The industry composition of the index's holdings shows that Information Technology accounts for 45.69%, Communication Services 25.15%, Consumer Discretionary 21.19%, Industrials 5.61%, and Healthcare 2.35% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the SHS IoT index include Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Connection A, Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme Connection C, and Tianhong CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen IoT Theme ETF [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly for low-priced consumer goods and imported durable goods due to ongoing uncertainties and potential economic risks [5]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index rebounded significantly in June, reaching 60.5, up 15.9% from May's 52.2, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8][9]. - Retail sales in May 2025 were $715.42 billion, a 0.9% month-over-month decline, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [9]. - Inflation data showed a mild increase in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations, but long-term inflation risks remain [11][13]. - Employment data showed a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, but revisions indicated a slowdown in job growth [15][19]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index rebounded in June, reflecting a recovery from previous declines, with inflation expectations decreasing from 6.6% to 5.1% [8]. - Retail sales data for May showed a significant decline, particularly in durable goods, as the demand normalized following a previous surge [9]. - Inflation data indicated a mild increase, with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, but long-term inflation concerns persist due to potential tariff impacts [11][13]. - Employment data showed a stable job market, but with signs of sectoral divergence, particularly in manufacturing and services [15][17]. Essential Consumption - Beverage and tobacco sectors outperformed the market, with beverage sales showing resilience, while alcoholic beverages and dairy products continued to underperform [2][34]. - Alcoholic beverage retail sales in April were $5.63 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, but overall sales volume continued to decline [2][29]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a stable but lackluster performance [34]. - Beverage shipments reached $11.97 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, showcasing strong demand in essential categories [34]. Optional Consumption - The restaurant sector showed resilience with retail sales of $97.36 billion in May, a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, but a month-over-month decline of 0.9% [39]. - Department store sales in May were $76.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, but a continued weakening trend [42]. - Apparel retail sales reached $26.18 billion in May, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, but a decline in momentum due to the end of pre-tariff purchasing [44]. Market Performance - The consumer sector saw a broad rally in May, with significant gains in essential and discretionary categories, although valuations remain at historical highs [4]. - The consumer discretionary ETF saw a net inflow of $553 million, while the essential consumer ETF had a net inflow of $522 million, indicating investor interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a cautious approach towards the consumer sector, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic growth [5].

Core Insights - The report by CITIC Securities highlights the changing dynamics of global stock markets, indicating a shift from a "single core" investment strategy to a "regional diversification" approach, particularly in developed markets [3] - In emerging markets, there is a notable concentration in Asia, with China, India, and Taiwan collectively accounting for over 66% of the market [3] Market Structure - In developed markets, the weight of the US remains high at 71.46%, but has decreased, while Japan, France, and other developed markets are gaining weight [3] - The technology sector continues to dominate the global market, with information technology and finance accounting for over 42% in developed markets [3] - Emerging markets show a rise in technology and stable finance sectors, while resource sectors maintain relative strength [3] Regional Characteristics - China focuses on technology and manufacturing, showing high capital concentration and increasing capital attractiveness [3] - India's market structure is balanced with active consumption, finance, and industry sectors, benefiting from domestic demand and demographic advantages [3] - Japan's market is characterized by industrial and consumer discretionary sectors, reflecting traditional manufacturing strengths [3] - Hong Kong and Singapore maintain their status as financial centers, with telecommunications and finance leading in market capitalization and trading [3] - Australia continues to exhibit resource-oriented characteristics, while Southeast Asia's market structure is fragmented and less active, indicating a developing capital market [3] Valuation Levels - Global stock market valuations are generally rising, with significant differentiation at the industry level [4] - The US market shows high valuations and strong profitability, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 PE ratios exceeding 25 and 33, respectively, and ROE above 18% [4] - European markets have moderate valuations, with Germany's DAX high but limited profitability, while UK and French markets exhibit lower valuations and earnings [4] - Asian markets show significant valuation and profitability disparities, with South Korea being attractively valued but with weak earnings, while India sees a valuation decline [4] - The technology sector shows notable valuation differences, with Germany at historical highs and South Korea undervalued; the financial sector in the US and Australia is highly valued, while some Southeast Asian markets are significantly undervalued [4]

Macro Commentary - The economic recovery in China remains unbalanced, with May data showing significant retail sales growth supported by the old-for-new policy, while real estate sales have declined further and industrial output growth has generally slowed [2] - GDP growth is expected to slow from 5.4% in Q1 2025 to 4.9% in Q2 and 4.7% in the second half of the year, potentially facing headwinds from weakening exports and diminishing effects of the old-for-new policy [2] - If a preliminary trade agreement is reached between China and the US, China may focus on economic rebalancing, increasing fiscal expansion and consumer stimulation, and promoting capacity reduction in manufacturing [2] Market Performance - Major global stock indices showed positive performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,061, up 0.70% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% to 6,033 [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.15% year-to-date, reflecting a strong performance in the technology sector [2] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong market was mixed, with financials and industrials leading gains, while real estate and healthcare sectors faced declines [4] Sector Analysis - The automotive sector is highlighted with companies like Geely Automobile and Xpeng Motors rated as "Buy," with target prices indicating potential upside of 46% and 50% respectively [6] - The equipment manufacturing sector also shows promise, with companies like Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry rated as "Buy," suggesting potential price increases of 19% and 24% respectively [6] - In the consumer sector, Luckin Coffee and PepsiCo are rated as "Buy," with expected price increases of 15% and 61% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [6] Credit and Economic Support - China's credit situation remains weak, driven by government financing, while private sector credit demand is still sluggish [5] - The social financing scale growth rate has rebounded due to accelerated government bond issuance, but household confidence is affected by tariff shocks, impacting housing and consumption [5] - More policy support is needed to revitalize private economic recovery, with expectations of a further 10 basis point reduction in LPR by the second half of 2025 [5]