Core Insights - The U.S. is on the brink of a debt crisis, with a national debt of $36.7 trillion and annual interest payments reaching $1 trillion, surpassing the defense budget [1] - The crisis is exacerbated by hedge funds increasing leveraged investments in U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a significant drop in overnight reverse repo balances, indicating liquidity risks [2] - There are allegations of "duplicate accounting" in U.S. Treasury records, suggesting potential overstatement of the $36 trillion debt, raising concerns about a possible "technical default" [4] Group 1: Government Actions - The Trump administration has introduced the "Trump Gold Card" program, requiring 30% of a $5 million investment to be used for purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, aiming to raise $5 trillion if 1 million cards are sold [6] - Tariff strategies have been employed against allies and adversaries, with varying rates aimed at generating investment in the U.S. and offsetting debt [6] - The administration is also pushing for a "Lakewood Manor Agreement" to convert existing debt into 100-year zero-coupon bonds, which could reduce annual interest payments by $400 billion [8] Group 2: Economic Implications - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, compounding existing financial issues [11] - The U.S. economy is facing a "debt death spiral," necessitating a reduction of the deficit to 3% of GDP to stabilize the situation [11] - The potential revaluation of gold reserves could significantly impact the financial landscape, with current accounting values far below market prices, leading to volatility in gold prices and broader financial markets [10] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the "Trump Gold Card," the S&P 500 index fell by 4%, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds surged to 5.5% [6] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts are low, with only a 4.1% probability of a rate cut in July, indicating skepticism about the administration's monetary policy strategies [8] - The EU and China are preparing retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs, which could further strain economic relations and impact U.S. industries [10]

Group 1 - The core of the agreement is a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the US, along with a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products [1][3][4] - The agreement is perceived by some European leaders as a one-sided concession rather than a mutually beneficial trade cooperation, with criticism from figures like Bernd Lange and Marine Le Pen highlighting its negative implications for the EU [1][6][7] - The US maintains a 50% global tariff on steel and aluminum, while the EU's interpretation suggests that pharmaceuticals will also be subject to the 15% tariff, which could impact EU exports significantly [4][5] Group 2 - The agreement has been met with cautious optimism from some US officials, who view it as a significant opening of the EU market, but there is a notable lack of enthusiasm from European leaders [5][6] - European media and business sectors have expressed strong criticism, arguing that the agreement could harm local employment and industry, with concerns about the imbalance in trade terms [6][7] - The new tariff structure represents a significant increase from previous averages, with the EU's average tariff on US goods being 1.32% compared to the newly established 15% [7]

Group 1 - The US and EU have reached a new trade agreement, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on EU products and the EU committing to invest $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy [2][4] - The agreement is seen as a compromise, avoiding a potential trade war that could have resulted from a proposed 30% tariff by the US [3][4] - The new tariff rate is significantly higher than the previous average of around 2%, which poses challenges for EU product competitiveness [5][7] Group 2 - Germany, as the largest EU economy, benefits from the agreement as it reduces the average tariff on automotive exports from 27.5% to 15%, thus protecting its key industries [4][6] - The agreement has sparked criticism within the EU, with some leaders arguing it represents a loss for European industries and could threaten jobs [7][8] - The potential for increased US procurement and investment from the EU raises questions about the actual implementation and market willingness to follow through [8]

Group 1 - The UK retail sector continues to experience a decline for the 10th consecutive month, with July's retail sales indicator at -34, an improvement from June's -46, indicating persistent weak demand [1] - Rising prices driven by increased labor costs and economic uncertainty are pressuring consumer demand, leading to a decrease in sales since October 2024 [1] - The decision by the Chancellor to raise social security contributions for businesses and increase the minimum wage has contributed to rising prices [1] Group 2 - The weak demand is reflected across the distribution industry, with declines also reported in wholesale and automotive sales [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: The US and the EU reached an agreement, with the US imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the previously threatened rate, avoiding an escalation of the trade war. The EU promised to invest about $600 billion in the US and significantly increase purchases of US energy and military products. Sino-US high-level meetings will be held in Stockholm on Monday to extend the August 12 tariff "ceasefire" agreement by 90 days. With the tariff paths of many countries becoming clearer, market risk appetite has slightly increased [2]. - Domestic: The current market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The positive sentiment brought by supply - side optimization policies is still evolving. A - shares once broke through the 3600 - point mark, and trading volume and margin trading balances increased. In June, the year - on - year decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed to - 4.3%, mainly driven by the automotive industry. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment, policy outcomes, and tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - US 7 - month Manufacturing and Services PMI Differentiation: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI was 49.5, weaker than expected and below the boom - bust line. The services PMI reached a new high this year at 55.2. Tariffs and high prices were reported to suppress demand [5]. - ECB's July Decision: On July 24, the ECB announced a pause in interest rate cuts after eight consecutive cuts, maintaining the main interest rate at 2.00%. The market's expectation of a September rate cut dropped below 30% [7]. Asset Performance - Equity: Most equity indices showed positive performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.33% last week, and the Hang Seng Index rose 5.47% [9]. - Bond: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds showed different trends. For example, the 1 - year domestic treasury bond yield rose 3.38 BP last week, while the 5 - year US treasury bond yield fell 1.00 BP [12]. - Commodity: The performance of commodities was mixed. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.73% last week, while WTI crude oil fell 1.48% [14]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index fell 0.80% last week, and the euro - to - RMB exchange rate rose 0.73% [16]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: High - frequency data such as the congestion index, subway passenger volume, and real - estate transaction volume are presented through charts [18]. - Overseas: Data on red - book retail sales, unemployment claims, and US treasury bond spreads are shown [22]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data and events are scheduled this week, including US GDP, employment data, and euro - zone economic sentiment indices [31].

Group 1 - The G20 Development Ministers' Meeting is held in Mpumalanga, South Africa, focusing on enhancing social protection and combating illicit financial flows [1] - President Trump announces a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the US, while key areas like steel, aluminum, chips, and spirits remain unresolved [2] - The European Central Bank's council member states there is little reason to further lower interest rates unless the economy faces significant shocks [2] Group 2 - The Russian Central Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18%, maintaining a tight monetary policy until inflation returns to target levels by 2026 [3] - US durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, the largest decline since April 2020, with core durable goods orders unexpectedly dropping by 0.7% [3] - The US stock market sees record margin account borrowing exceeding $1 trillion for the first time [3] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rises by 0.47% to 44,901.92 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching new historical highs [4] - COMEX gold futures decline by 1.04% to $3,338.50 per ounce, while silver futures drop by 2.29% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Group 4 - US oil futures decrease by 1.45% to $65.07 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fall by 1.11% to $67.60 per barrel [5] - The 2-year US Treasury yield rises by 0.91 basis points, while the 10-year yield decreases by 0.99 basis points to 4.388% [5] Group 5 - The US dollar index increases by 0.19% to 97.67, with various currency pairs showing mixed performance against the dollar [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, confirmed that the deadline for imposing tariffs on trade partners is set for August 1, with no extensions or grace periods [2] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, and customs will begin collecting them [2] - A few countries have reached agreements with the Trump administration, resulting in tariff levels higher than the new 10% baseline but lower than the threatened higher rates [2] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, is scheduled to meet with President Trump to negotiate a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline, or face tariffs up to 30% on EU exports to the U.S. [6][7] - The outcome of the negotiations largely depends on Trump's decisions, as he has previously altered terms at the last minute [7] - The EU is proposing a 15% tariff cap on most trade with the U.S., with certain exemptions for specific products [7][8] Group 3: Business Delegation to China - A high-level U.S. business delegation is set to visit China, organized by the U.S.-China Business Council, to potentially restart commercial negotiations [4][5] - The delegation will include executives from Boeing and the U.S.-China Business Council, indicating a significant engagement in trade discussions [3][4]

Core Points - The EU faces a "collective action problem," which hinders trade negotiations with the US [1][6] - The US-EU trade talks are in the final stages, with leaders set to meet for crucial discussions [1][3] - A potential framework trade agreement is estimated to have a 50% chance of being reached, with the EU eager to finalize it [1][3] Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The US and EU are engaged in "intensive negotiations" on technical and political levels, aiming for a balanced outcome that provides stability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic [3] - The potential agreement may include a 15% general tariff on EU goods entering the US, similar to recent agreements with Japan [3][4] - Trump's administration maintains a firm stance on a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, indicating limited flexibility in this area [3][4] Group 2: Differences Between US-EU and US-Japan Agreements - The economic relationship between the US and EU is characterized by lower complementarity and higher competition compared to the US-Japan relationship [4] - Japan's political and military dependency on the US contrasts with the EU's higher degree of autonomy, particularly for France and Germany [4] - The EU's current capital shortage complicates its ability to negotiate large-scale direct investments as Japan did [4] Group 3: Challenges in Specific Sectors - The EU's stringent food standards make negotiations in agricultural imports more challenging compared to Japan's concessions on agricultural products [5] - The EU may allow limited imports of genetically modified agricultural products, but this is expected to only address a fraction of the trade volume [5] - The aerospace sector could be a potential breakthrough area, although Airbus's strong position in Europe complicates US Boeing's procurement efforts [5] Group 4: Political Considerations and Internal EU Dynamics - The EU's collective decision-making process complicates negotiations, as the European Commission must represent all member states [6] - Recent meetings between German and French leaders indicate a shift towards a unified stance on trade negotiations with the US [7] - Germany's reevaluation of its economic model in light of geopolitical tensions may lead to a more assertive position in trade discussions [7]

Group 1 - The European Union has approved a significant retaliatory tariff decision against the United States, amounting to €93 billion, targeting key economic sectors such as Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and agricultural products [1] - The tariff measures specifically focus on symbolic American products, including bourbon whiskey and soybeans, which are closely tied to the voter base of former President Trump [1] - The decision comes in response to the U.S. imposing tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products starting in 2025, which has severely impacted the European automotive and aerospace industries, particularly in Germany and France [1] Group 2 - Ursula von der Leyen's recent visit to China played a crucial role in the EU's decision-making process, emphasizing the need to rebalance trade relations between China and the EU [3] - During the visit, significant agreements were reached on climate change, energy transition, and green technology, indicating a potential for enhanced cooperation despite existing economic disagreements [3] - China's response to the EU's concerns about "overcapacity" and "industrial subsidies" highlighted its stance against perceived protectionist measures, warning that cooperation could stagnate if the EU continues to apply double standards [5]

Group 1 - Global stock markets continue to rise, driven by the optimism surrounding the US-Japan trade agreement, which has renewed investor confidence in potential trade deals with more countries [1] - Asian stock markets rose by 1%, supporting global stock indices to reach new highs, with Japan's Topix index hitting a record closing high [1][3] - The US is reportedly close to reaching an agreement with the EU to impose a 15% tariff on most products, which has positively impacted European stock indices [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.6%, while the Topix index rose by 1.7%, and the South Korean Composite Index gained 0.2% [3] - The Thai SET index saw its losses widen to 1% amid geopolitical tensions [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen strengthened by over 0.1% [4][13] - The Thai baht fell by over 0.4%, retreating from its high since 2022 [4] Group 4 - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increasing by approximately 1 basis point [5] - Japanese 40-year government bond yields fell by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [6] Group 5 - Crude oil prices increased by over 1%, with US oil surpassing $66 and Brent oil exceeding $69.40 [7][18] - Spot gold prices fell by over 0.3%, while silver dropped by approximately 0.4% [6]