Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that hot-rolled inventory is at its highest level for the same period in five years, indicating potential supply chain pressures [41] - The liquidity environment is characterized by a historical high in gold prices, with the London gold spot price reaching $4,533 per ounce [11] - The report notes a decline in construction activity, with national real estate new starts down 20.50% year-on-year for the first 11 months of 2025 [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, down 10.19% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [18] - The current London gold price is $4,533 per ounce, reflecting a 4.41% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Hot-rolled inventory is at the highest level for the same period in five years, with rebar prices down 1.20% this week [41] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 85%, unchanged from the previous week [10] - The cement price index has decreased by 0.49% this week, with a national cement utilization rate of 30.14%, down 0.9 percentage points [59] Industrial Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is at 72.05%, up 0.66 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 460,500 yuan per ton, up 6.35% from last week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,060 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.01% increase week-on-week [10] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar has turned positive, with the current difference at 10 yuan per ton [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.02 this week [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel has a ratio of 0.10 [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1,146.67 points, up 1.95% week-on-week [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 75.30%, down 1.20 percentage points from the previous week [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.95%, with the chemical sector performing best at +4.23% [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.50, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

要点 2025 年 12 月 15 日 行业研究 12 月高炉产能利用率有望低于去年同期水平 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.8-12.14） 流动性：M1 M2 增速差在 9 月创下近 56 个月高点后，连续两个月回落。 （1）BCI 中小企业融资环境指数 2025 年 11 月值为 52.50，环比上月 +0.17%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 11 月为-3.1 个百分点，环比-1.10 个百分点；（3）本 周伦敦金现价格为 4299 美元/盎司。 基建和地产链条：高炉产能利用率连续两周低于去年同期水平。（1）本周 价格变动：螺纹-0.61%、水泥价格指数+0.86%、橡胶+1.71%、焦炭 -3.29%、焦煤-0.71%、铁矿-0.63%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青开工率环比-1.16pct、-0.30pct、+0.3pct。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、玻璃的价格环比 分别+0.00%、+0.00%，钛白粉毛利润为-1679 元/吨，平板玻璃本周开工率 73.82%。 工业品链 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [5] - The report notes that the liquidity environment for small and medium enterprises has improved slightly, with the BCI index at 52.50, indicating a positive trend [11] - The report indicates that the total inventory of five major steel varieties is at its highest level for the same period in four years, suggesting potential supply pressures [22] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI index for small and medium enterprises in November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [11] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -2.0 percentage points in October 2025, down 0.80 percentage points from the previous month [11] - The current price of London gold is $4,219 per ounce, reflecting a 3.80% increase from the previous week [11] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The total inventory of five major steel varieties is at a four-year high [22] - The price changes for key materials include rebar up 0.93% and cement price index up 0.22% [22] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 88%, down 0.6 percentage points [43] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at a five-year median [3] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down 0.25% and copper up 1.77% [3] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is 69.19%, down 1.88 percentage points [3] Sub-sectors - The price of tungsten concentrate has reached a new high since 2012, at 339,000 yuan per ton, up 3.04% from last week [3] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21,430 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.33% increase [3] - The price of electrolytic copper is 87,480 yuan per ton, up 1.77% [3] Price Ratio Relationships - The gold-silver price ratio has reached its lowest level since August 2024, at 78 times [4] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.08 this week [4] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan per ton [4] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in October 2025 is 45.90%, down 1.9 percentage points [4] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is 1,121.80 points, down 0.09% [4] - The capacity utilization rate for crude steel in the U.S. is 76.90%, up 0.70 percentage points [4] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.64%, with industrial metals performing best at +3.46% [5] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.53, with a historical high of 0.82 [5] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is likely to recover, leading to a potential PB ratio recovery [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the price of electrolytic aluminum has reached a new high for the year at 21,050 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.79% and a profit margin of 3,683 CNY/ton, reflecting a 13.04% increase [2][11] - Iron ore prices have also reached a six-month high, indicating a positive trend in the metal cycle [2] - The report notes a significant decline in the average daily crude steel production of key enterprises, which fell by 7.94% month-on-month in late August [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The London gold spot price has reached a historical high of 3,643 USD/oz, with a week-on-week increase of 1.58% [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for August 2025 is at 46.37, up 0.61% from the previous month [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises decreased by 7.94% month-on-month in late August [23] - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points [2] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, with a week-on-week increase of 5.99 percentage points [2] - The prices of cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum have changed by -2.63%, +1.36%, and +1.79% respectively [2] Sub-sectors - The price of titanium dioxide and flat glass remains low, with flat glass operating rates at 76.01% [2][75] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are -1,277 CNY/ton and -58 CNY/ton respectively [77] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in August 2025 is at 47.20%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points [4] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio of the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, with the highest historical value being 0.82 [4]

Group 1 - The US has increased import tariffs on China's anode-grade graphite to 160%, impacting the cost of electric vehicle manufacturing in the US, with a cost increase of $4,200 per ton [1] - China holds a 78% share of the global anode-grade graphite market, and over 90% of the raw materials needed for US electric vehicle battery production are imported from China [1] - Major US automakers like Tesla and Ford have announced plans to halt production of certain models due to the increased costs [1] Group 2 - The EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia includes two Chinese financial institutions that provide settlement services to Russian energy companies, involving approximately €1.2 billion [3] - The sanctions have led to a 30% decrease in efficiency within the EU's internal energy settlement system [3] - Canada has imposed a 23% punitive tariff on Chinese cold-rolled steel, causing a 5.2% increase in domestic steel prices and resulting in multiple infrastructure projects being put on hold [3] Group 3 - China and Australia have signed a procurement agreement for 500,000 tons of canola seeds, an increase of 150,000 tons from the previous year, leading to an increase in Australia's canola production utilization rate from 68% to 82% [5] - The US electric vehicle industry association has warned that comprehensive sanctions could result in the loss of 400,000 jobs [5] - China accounts for 91% of the market share for rare earth processing products exported to the US, with companies closely monitoring policy developments [5] Group 4 - Chinese rare earth companies are accelerating capacity expansion in Myanmar and Malawi, increasing their overseas mining share from 22% to 35% [7] - Brazil and India have expressed willingness to expand trade with China in agricultural and mineral products, with negotiations entering substantive stages [7] - China's manufacturing PMI has remained above 50.8 for three consecutive months, outperforming the global average by 2.3 percentage points, indicating resilience in the supply chain [7] - The IMF has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China to 5.2%, citing stronger-than-expected supply chain resilience [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in tariffs on 407 derivative products related to steel and aluminum by the Trump administration is a strategic move aimed at protecting domestic industries while also serving political interests in an election year [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Industries - The newly added 407 products include items closely related to steel and aluminum, such as alloy wheels for cars and cold-rolled steel sheets for appliances, effectively extending the tariff to a wide range of industries [3]. - Domestic automotive manufacturers that previously relied on imported specialty steel will face increased costs, potentially leading to reduced profit margins or price hikes for consumers [3]. - The tariffs are expected to provide short-term benefits to U.S. steel and aluminum companies, increasing their orders and production [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - The stated purpose of the tariffs is to protect the struggling domestic steel and aluminum industries, which have been facing low capacity utilization rates [3]. - The tariffs may also be a strategic move to secure votes from workers in the "Rust Belt," a key demographic for Trump, as increased orders could lead to job stability [3]. - European countries have threatened retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, which could impact U.S. exports of soybeans and corn, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors should monitor U.S. steel and aluminum companies that may benefit from the tariff-induced demand increase, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of this policy [4]. - Companies with manufacturing facilities in Mexico or Canada that can circumvent tariffs by processing materials before exporting to the U.S. may find new opportunities [4]. - High-end steel and aluminum manufacturers in China could gain market share in Southeast Asia and South America if they can enhance their technological competitiveness [4]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - Trade tensions are likened to a prolonged arm-wrestling match, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong technology and market presence rather than getting caught up in tariff fluctuations [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][5] - The report notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in coking coal, and suggests monitoring the risks associated with futures price volatility [4] Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a potential impact on market liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.07% [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, increasing by 5.50% to 3450 CNY/ton [9][41] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.81%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [41] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was reported at 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 6.42% [2] Subsector Performance - The prices of main coking coal and iron ore reached four-month highs, with coking coal prices at 1227 CNY/ton, up 6.6% [9][2] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently low, with flat glass margins at -58 CNY/ton [78][80] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [9][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [9] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China were at 47.70% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [3][9] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was reported at 1261.35 points, down 3.24% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a downturn in the construction industry leading to weakened steel demand, China continues to maintain high production levels and is exporting large quantities to neighboring countries, resulting in increased trade friction surrounding steel products [1][2]. Group 1: Steel Demand and Prices - The circulating price of hot-rolled steel plates in the Tokyo area is approximately 112,500 yen per ton, a decrease of 4% compared to the end of June, marking the lowest level since August 2021 [2]. - Japan's steel demand is low due to factors such as uncertainty related to U.S. tariff policies, labor shortages, and extreme heat, which hinder construction projects [2]. - In June, China's steel exports reached 9.67 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, while total exports from January to June amounted to 58.14 million tons, a historical high for the same period [2]. Group 2: Trade Friction and Anti-Dumping Measures - Japan is initiating an anti-dumping tariff investigation on nickel-based stainless steel cold-rolled sheets and cold-rolled steel plates, targeting products from mainland China and Taiwan [3]. - The global number of anti-dumping investigations related to steel reached a historical high of 41 in 2024, with 30 cases specifically targeting China [3]. - Countries are increasingly seeking to exclude low-priced imported steel, leading to an oversupply of Chinese steel in the market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The previous weak market of coke and coking coal futures has changed, and positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. However, considering the continued impact of the previous high supply and only an expected decline in supply in the future, whether it will lead to a turnaround in the market needs further verification by the market. It is expected that the spot prices of coke and coking coal and the coke futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly, but the coking coal futures price has a demand to repair a large discount and may turn to rebound or fluctuate strongly. There is a possibility of narrowing the price difference between coking coal futures and spot, and the decline in the coke - coking coal ratio also helps investors try the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 (Market Review and Future Outlook) - **Market Performance on June 11th**: The main contract 2509 of coke futures oscillated and rebounded for two consecutive days, while the main contract 2509 of coking coal futures first rose and then fell, hitting a recent rebound high during the session. The J2509 contract closed at 1356 yuan/ton, up 1.31%, with a trading volume of 25,401 lots and a position of 52,791 lots, a decrease of 1,227 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 783.5 yuan/ton, up 1.10%, with a trading volume of 1,152,104 lots and a position of 557,029 lots, a decrease of 10,814 lots [5]. - **Spot Market and Technical Indicators**: On June 11th, the quasi - first - class metallurgical coke flat - price index in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1,270 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal prices in some areas decreased. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal continued to rise, and the daily MACD red columns of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal enlarged for three consecutive days [8]. - **Future Outlook for Coke**: In the past six weeks, the coke output of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. Since late March, the coke output of steel mills has been gradually declining. In the past seven weeks, the port coke inventory has significantly decreased, but the de - stocking speed of steel mill inventory is slow, and the coking plant inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke has been in a loss for three consecutive weeks, but the loss narrowed in the week of June 6th [10]. - **Future Outlook for Coking Coal**: From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants reached a new high since February 2021, and the clean coal inventory reached a new high since October 2020. In the past seven weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, the port inventory has slightly rebounded from the lowest level since early August last year, and the steel mill inventory has significantly decreased for two consecutive weeks. The raw coal and clean coal output of coking coal mines has significantly decreased for three consecutive weeks. From late May to early June, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased significantly compared with the previous two weeks [10]. - **News and Comprehensive Analysis**: Some coal mines in Shanxi stopped or reduced production due to the completion of monthly production tasks; the new "Mineral Resources Law" will be officially implemented on July 1st, which will help the coal price stop falling and rebound; after the third round of price cuts for coke procurement by some steel mills in Tangshan, some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang and other places lowered the procurement price of wet - quenched coke by 70 yuan/ton and the procurement price of dry - quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton, starting from 0:00 on June 6th [11]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **National Development and Reform Commission's Investment in Livelihood Projects**: Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the National Development and Reform Commission has increased investment in livelihood construction. It is expected that the central budget - funded investment in social undertakings this year will be more than 30% higher than that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [12]. - **Local Government Debt and Investment**: Many provinces have adjusted their budgets after receiving the annual debt - issuing quota from the Ministry of Finance, increasing their debt - issuing quota and expenditure to support stable growth and structural adjustment [13]. - **Automobile Industry Price War**: In May, some automobile enterprises significantly lowered the prices of new energy vehicles again, causing panic in the industry. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an initiative to maintain fair competition, and the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supported the initiative and will strengthen the rectification of "involution - style" competition in the automobile industry [13]. - **Railway Transport Breakthrough**: On June 6th, the Xinshuo Railway became the third railway line in China with a 20,000 - ton heavy - haul transport capacity, significantly improving the overall level of heavy - haul railway transport in China [13]. - **Company Information**: Benxi Steel Plate Co., Ltd. introduced its raw material supply and product sales. Its iron ore raw materials are about 60% purchased from the group, and coking coal and coke are mainly purchased from long - term contracts with domestic mines. Huayang Co., Ltd. stated that its coal mines are operating normally, and the increasing power demand during the "peak summer" in the third quarter will support the coal market [13]. - **Regional Energy Plan**: The "Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Energy Field of Yangquan City" proposes that by 2025, the total coal production capacity of the city will be stable at about 57.4 million tons per year, and the proportion of advanced coal mine production capacity will be stable at about 95% [14]. - **International Trade and Market Information**: Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets originating from China; in April 2025, Australia's coal export value decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in May 2025, the coal export volume of Australia's North Queensland ports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month; in May 2025, Russia's coal exports to China by railway increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [14]. - **Energy Outlook in the United States**: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the electricity consumption in the United States will reach a record high in 2025 and 2026; the U.S. coal production in 2025 is expected to be 512 million short tons (464 million tons), and the coal consumption is expected to be 428 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.16%; low oil prices and a decrease in the number of drilling rigs will affect the U.S. crude oil production trend in 2026 [14]. - **OPEC's View on Oil Demand**: OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years, and global energy demand will increase by 24% from now to 2050, with oil demand exceeding 120 million barrels per day [15]. - **Russian Policy**: Russian President Putin extended the counter - measures against the price cap on Russian oil and oil products until December 31, 2025 [15]. - **World Bank's Economic Forecast**: The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, warning that the 2020s may be the weakest decade since the Apollo moon landing [15]. - **Indian Coal Production**: In May 2025, India's coal production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a year - on - year increase of 2.83% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34% [15]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the summary price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, the coke inventory of ports/steel mills/coking plants, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, the coking coal inventory of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coke and September contracts and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and September contracts. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [19][20][22][29][30][33].