Core Viewpoint - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, which is now operating steadily, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons as of the end of August [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Structure of the Carbon Market - The construction of China's carbon emissions trading market has progressed steadily since the pilot programs were initiated in 2011, leading to the national market's official launch in 2017 [2]. - The recent issuance of the "Opinions" document aims to enhance the effectiveness, vitality, and international influence of the national carbon market, while also coordinating with local pilot markets [2][5]. - The national carbon market is expected to manage over 70% of carbon emissions in the future, with the voluntary carbon market complementing it by addressing emissions not covered by the mandatory market [3][4]. Group 2: Key Measures and Future Directions - The "Opinions" document outlines a timeline and roadmap for the development of the national carbon market, emphasizing the need for effective integration with national carbon emission control measures [2][7]. - Key areas for immediate focus include achieving effective linkage between the national carbon market and the dual control of carbon emissions, introducing paid allocation of quotas, and enhancing management capabilities of registration and trading institutions [2][5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework and Data Quality - A multi-level and relatively complete regulatory framework for the carbon market has begun to take shape, with over 30 regulations and technical standards established [6]. - The upcoming "Interim Regulations on Carbon Emission Trading" will clarify responsibilities for companies regarding carbon emission reporting and quota compliance, with penalties for non-compliance [6]. Group 4: Pricing Mechanism and Market Dynamics - The transition from intensity control to total control of carbon emissions is planned, with a focus on scientifically setting total quotas to meet national reduction targets [7]. - Factors influencing carbon pricing include national emission reduction goals and the development of low-carbon technologies, highlighting the need for a market-driven pricing mechanism [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has become the largest carbon trading market globally, covering a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions [1][4] - The cumulative transaction volume of the carbon market has exceeded 49 billion yuan, with nearly 720 million tons of carbon allowances traded [2] - The market has expanded its coverage to include industries such as steel, cement, and aluminum, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The carbon market's trading scale reached a historical high since 2024, indicating increased market vitality [2] - The "waste-to-energy" system implemented in the cement industry can consume over 150,000 tons of solid waste annually, reducing carbon emissions by approximately 300,000 tons [2] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Development - A central document was issued in August to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, outlining key tasks and action plans [3] - The national carbon market conference serves as a platform to share China's experiences with emerging economies, promoting the adoption of carbon market mechanisms for green development [3] Group 3: International Recognition - The achievements of China's carbon market have been recognized by international guests, highlighting its role in optimizing resource allocation and guiding industry emissions reductions [4] - The European Union has expressed admiration for China's leadership in green transformation and renewable energy deployment [5] - International organizations acknowledge China's positive experiences in green development, which inspire confidence in global emission reduction efforts [6]

Group 1: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Goals - China announced new NDC goals aiming for a 7%-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to peak levels, with a target for non-fossil energy consumption to exceed 30% of total energy consumption [1] - The total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach over 360 million kilowatts, which is more than six times the capacity in 2020 [1] - The NDC goals are seen as a strong commitment to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and will enhance the efficiency of the national carbon market [1] Group 2: Carbon Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for over four years, covering more than 2,200 key emission units in the power sector, making it the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage [2] - As of August 2024, the cumulative trading volume in the carbon market reached nearly 700 million tons, with a transaction value of approximately 48 billion yuan [2] - The carbon market is expected to expand to include the steel, cement, and aluminum industries by 2025, adding over 1,300 new key emission units and increasing the controlled carbon emissions by about 3 billion tons [7] Group 3: Future Plans and Recommendations - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to steadily expand the carbon market's coverage and enhance trading varieties and methods [3] - A central document was released outlining a roadmap for the carbon market's development, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 [4] - Experts suggest establishing a total control system for carbon emissions and setting net-zero growth targets for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5][6] Group 4: International Cooperation and Standards - China is actively working to enhance its international influence in carbon markets and is exploring cross-border carbon trading mechanisms [10] - The upcoming COP30 in Brazil is seen as a critical point for advancing the implementation of the Paris Agreement, with expectations for increased international cooperation [9] - China's carbon market has been recognized as a model for emerging economies, with its innovative carbon intensity control being referenced by countries like Turkey, Brazil, and Indonesia [11]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has shown significant operational effectiveness since its launch in 2021, with a well-established system and smooth functioning of allocation, trading, and compliance processes [4][6]. Market Performance - As of August 2025, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances reached nearly 700 million tons, with a transaction value exceeding 47.8 billion yuan. The carbon price has increased from 48 yuan per ton at the start to over 100 yuan per ton, currently stabilizing around 60 yuan per ton [4][6][11]. Policy Impact - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" by the central government marks a systematic deployment for the future development of the national carbon market, providing a roadmap and objectives for market construction [4][8]. Market Expansion - The inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into the carbon market has added over 30 billion tons of annual emissions coverage, enhancing market activity and resilience [5][11]. Recommendations for Improvement - To address existing issues in the carbon market, it is recommended to establish a transparent carbon allowance management system, maintain policy stability, and implement a combination of free and paid allocation methods [5][12]. - The introduction of paid allocation is expected to enhance corporate awareness of carbon costs and benefits, promoting proactive management of emissions [9][10]. Future Directions - The carbon market aims to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 and expand the range of greenhouse gases included, with a focus on enhancing trading mechanisms and regulatory frameworks [8][11].

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the national carbon emissions trading market has a cumulative transaction volume of 696 million tons and a transaction value of 47.826 billion yuan, with the 2024 transaction value reaching a new annual high since the market's launch in 2021 [3] - The national carbon market, which started online trading on July 16, 2021, is the largest carbon market globally in terms of greenhouse gas emissions coverage, initially including 2,162 enterprises in the power generation sector and covering a carbon quota of 4.5 billion tons [3] - Following the market's expansion in May, approximately 1,500 key emission units from the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were added, increasing the total carbon emissions coverage to 8 billion tons, accounting for over 60% of the national total [3] Group 2 - The national carbon market has enhanced companies' awareness of low-carbon development, with significant improvements in carbon emission control capabilities [5] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that the carbon emission intensity of the national power sector decreased by 10.8% in 2024 compared to 2018 [5] - The trading scale of the national carbon market reached a historical high, with increased participation willingness from trading entities and a gradual enrichment of trading products and methods [5] Group 3 - The China Carbon Registration and Settlement System (referred to as "Zhong Carbon") is the core infrastructure of the national carbon market, responsible for registration, settlement, and clearing functions [3] - Zhong Carbon has completed 20 system upgrades and implemented quantum encryption technology to ensure data security, achieving nearly 1,000 billion yuan in cumulative clearing amounts with zero errors in settlements [4] - Baosteel Co., Ltd. has been active in carbon trading since 2013, successfully implementing 270 energy-saving projects from 2022 to 2024, resulting in a reduction of 2.59 million tons of carbon emissions [4]

Group 1 - The national carbon market in China has expanded its coverage, adding over 1,300 key emission units, resulting in an increase of approximately 3 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions, with the covered CO2 emissions now accounting for over 60% of the national total [1] - By 2027, the national carbon market is expected to cover the main emission industries in the industrial sector [1] - In 2024, the carbon emission allowance trading market operated for 242 trading days, with an average daily trading volume of carbon emission allowances increasing by 43.55% compared to the previous compliance cycle, and the total annual trading volume reaching 18.9 million tons [1] Group 2 - The comprehensive closing price of the national carbon market in 2024 ranged from 69 yuan/ton to 106 yuan/ton, with the year-end closing price at 97.49 yuan/ton, representing a 103.1% increase from the opening price on the first trading day in 2021 and a 22.75% increase from the closing price at the end of 2023 [2] - The trading willingness of key emission units has significantly increased, with the total buy and sell orders for listed agreement trading rising by 232% year-on-year as of August this year [2] - As of August this year, 1,277 trading accounts have been opened by key emission units newly included in the market [2]

Group 1 - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has achieved a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB as of the end of August 2024, marking a record high since the market's launch in 2021 [1] - The annual transaction value for carbon emission allowances reached 18.114 billion RMB in 2024, setting a new record since the market's inception [1] - The report indicates that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the allocation of quotas for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, with 1,334 key emission units from these sectors newly included [1] Group 2 - By the end of 2024, the completion rate for quota compliance for the 2023 fiscal year was 99.98%, a historical high, with 28 provincial regions achieving 100% compliance [2] - The national carbon market has been operating smoothly, with an enhanced institutional framework and increased market vitality, leading to a stronger awareness of carbon reduction among key emission units [2] - Various stakeholders are actively participating in the carbon market, voluntarily developing and implementing emission reduction projects, showcasing the market's growing functionality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has made significant progress over the past four years, becoming a key mechanism for carbon pricing and promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals [1] Group 1: National Carbon Market Development - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has outlined plans to accelerate the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the institutional framework, and expand market coverage [1][2] - The first central document on carbon market development was released, setting clear goals and tasks for the market's advancement by 2027 and 2030 [2][3] Group 2: Key Goals and Tasks - By 2027, the carbon emissions trading market aims to cover major industrial sectors, with a focus on total quota control for stable emission industries [2][3] - The voluntary emission reduction trading market will achieve full coverage in key areas, supporting low-carbon technologies [2][3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Performance - The carbon market has expanded its industry coverage, adding over 1,300 new key emission units, which increases the controlled greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 3 billion tons [4] - The trading volume in 2024 reached a historical high, with an average daily transaction volume up by about 44% compared to the previous compliance cycle [5] Group 4: Data Quality and Management - The Ministry emphasizes data quality as crucial for carbon market construction, implementing a three-tier review mechanism and utilizing big data and blockchain for enhanced regulatory efficiency [6] - The number of non-compliant greenhouse gas emission reports decreased by about 24% year-on-year, indicating improved data quality management [6] Group 5: Impact on Emission Reduction - The carbon market has contributed to a 10.8% reduction in carbon emission intensity in the power sector compared to 2018, highlighting its role in guiding corporate emission reduction strategies [7]

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has seen significant growth, with a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a transaction value of approximately 48 billion RMB as of the end of August 2023, marking a record high for annual transaction value since the market's inception in 2021 [1] - The market's trading activity is increasing, with a 43.55% rise in average daily trading volume compared to the previous compliance cycle, resulting in a total trading volume of 18.9 million tons and a total transaction value of 18.114 billion RMB in 2024, the highest since the market started [1] - The carbon intensity of electricity generation in China decreased by 10.8% in 2024 compared to 2018, highlighting the significant role of the carbon market in achieving emissions reductions [1] Market Expansion - In March 2025, the State Council approved the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries into the national carbon emissions trading market, expanding the market's coverage [1] - This expansion added over 1,300 new key emission units, increasing the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions covered by the market to over 60% of the national total [1] Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market was launched as a significant policy tool to support China's "dual carbon" goals, with the first batch of newly registered certified voluntary emission reductions starting trading in March 2025 [2] - As of the end of August 2023, the voluntary emission reduction market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 2.7061 million tons and a transaction value of 229 million RMB, with transaction prices frequently exceeding 100 RMB per ton [2] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to steadily expand the coverage of the carbon market, enrich trading varieties and methods, and enhance international cooperation in the carbon market sector [2]