Report Information - Report Title: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0011243 [1] Glass Market Supply - As of July 17, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 157,800 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to July 10. The daily loss of float glass was 42,200 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 239,000 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 10,530 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day. The potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, and the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons. The potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [11][12][13] - Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain scale of production reduction in the fourth quarter. The current in - operation capacity is about 158,000 tons/day, with a peak capacity of 178,000 tons/day in 2021 and a recent low - level capacity of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17]. Demand - As of July 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a 2.1% decrease from the previous period and a 7.0% decrease year - on - year. In mid - July, most deep - processing enterprises reported that orders basically maintained the previous level, with no sign of improvement in demand, and the current profit level was still low, with a few reporting a continued decline in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.163 million heavy boxes from the previous period, a 3.22% decrease, and a 0.29% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.9 days, a decrease of 1.0 day from the previous period. The inventory in most regions decreased slightly [3][37]. Price and Profit - This week's transactions were basically stable, with most prices unchanged. Some prices in Shahe increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price in Shahe was about 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton (some manufacturers increased prices by 20 yuan/ton), and in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers was about 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [20][23]. - The futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was weak. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural gas and coal fuel was about - 183 - 108 yuan/ton [26][31]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating strongly, with upper pressure at 1,180 - 1,200 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [4]. Photovoltaic Glass Market Price and Profit - Prices declined, recent order follow - up decreased slightly, glass manufacturers' shipments were average, and inventory continued to increase. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.33% decrease from the previous period, and the decline rate increased by 0.06 percentage points compared to last week. The mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, remaining flat compared to the previous period [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - As the market weakens, it may enter a production reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity was about 94,000 tons/day. The sample inventory days were about 35.64 days, a 2.94% increase from the previous period, and the increase rate narrowed by 3.86 percentage points compared to last week [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Market Supply - This week, soda ash enterprises' equipment gradually resumed and increased production. The domestic soda ash output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase from the previous week. Some enterprises were in the process of maintenance or production reduction, and some were expected to have maintenance in the future [6][59]. Demand - The profits of downstream float glass processes have gradually improved, especially the profit of coal - gas production is relatively optimistic, but the production of petroleum coke and natural gas is still in a loss state. Photovoltaic glass profit is at a low level. Float glass and photovoltaic glass are generally cautious in purchasing soda ash, and demand has not expanded significantly [6]. Inventory - This period, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase from the previous period and a 111.85% increase year - on - year. The inventory of light soda ash was 783,000 tons, a decrease of 830,000 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1226 million tons, an increase of 505,000 tons from the previous period [7]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton. This week's prices changed little. The basis was weak, and the monthly spread was under pressure. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 39.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 82 yuan/ton [70][73][81]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, with upper pressure at 1,320 - 1,340 and lower support at 1,220 and 1,150. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Buy glass and sell soda ash [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures are driven by sentiment, with the spot market turning strong but the long - term outlook depending on cold - repair. Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, with inventory building up after maintenance. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in soda ash and to observe the glass market [1] - **Log**: The log futures rose sharply, but the high - temperature season leads to low demand. The short - term upward trend's sustainability is questionable, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - **Rubber**: Due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and potential typhoons in Hainan, supply is disrupted, while demand is stable. Short - term rubber prices are rising, and a short - selling approach on rebounds is recommended [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price has increased. The impact of rising polysilicon prices is weakening. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and large - enterprise restart plans, with a focus on price decline risks [6] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures prices have reached a new high. The short - term bullish sentiment is strong, but attention should be paid to supply - demand regulation and risk management [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in most regions are stable, while futures prices have increased. Some spreads have changed significantly [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and inventory are increasing, while float and photovoltaic melting volumes are decreasing [1] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate indicators such as new construction area and construction area show negative growth, but the decline in some indicators has narrowed [1] Log - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Log futures prices have generally increased, while spot prices in ports are stable. The outer - market quotation has risen [2] - **Supply**: Port shipments have increased, the number of departing ships from New Zealand has decreased, and inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand**: Log demand has decreased, and the daily outbound volume has declined [2] Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Rubber spot prices have mostly increased, and the basis of some varieties has changed [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber production in some countries has increased, tire production has increased slightly, and imports have decreased [4] - **Inventory Changes**: Rubber inventory in bonded areas and warehouses has changed, and the entry and exit rates of dry rubber in Qingdao have adjusted [4] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and the basis of some varieties has decreased [6] - **Monthly Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production and start - up rates have changed, and downstream product production has increased [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Factory and social inventories of industrial silicon have changed slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [6] Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Polysilicon spot and futures prices have increased, and the basis and spreads of some varieties have changed [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer production and import/export volumes have changed, and demand for silicon wafers has decreased [8] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories have decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged [8]

| 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/7/18 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | | | | 2025/7/10 | 2025/7/16 | | 2025/7/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 1083.0 | 1070.0 | 1092.0 | 9.0 | 22.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1156.0 | 1164.0 | 1164.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1174.0 | 1162.0 | 1168.0 | -6.0 | 6.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No explicit core viewpoints provided in the given content Group 3: Summary of Glass Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of various 5mm glass products showed different trends. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate increased by 40.0, while the price of South China low - price 5mm large - plate remained unchanged [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 and FG01 contracts had price changes. FG09 decreased by 31.0 from July 14 to July 15, and FG01 decreased by 28.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China coal - fired profit increased from 258.5 to 285.5, and North China coal - fired cost decreased by 5.2 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: In the glass spot market, the price of Shahe traders was around 1156, with average mid - stream trader shipments. In Hubei, the factory low - price was 1020 - 1040, and sales were good after price increases. Glass sales rates were 101 in Shahe, 125 in Hubei, 100 in East China, and 97 in South China [1]. Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Market - **Price Changes**: From July 8 to July 15, 2025, prices of different types of soda ash also changed. For instance, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased by 30.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05, SA01, and SA09 contracts all had price fluctuations. SA09 decreased by 27.0 from July 14 to July 15 [1]. - **Profit and Cost**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased by 31.3 from July 14 to July 15, and North China ammonia - soda cost increased by 1.3 during the same period [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1180, and the price delivered to Shahe was around 1200, with average downstream purchasing willingness. Factory inventories of soda ash were accumulating [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market shows different trends in various regions. In Shahe, the price of 5mm large - plate glass is relatively stable, with some minor changes. The glass production and sales rates vary by region, with Hubei having a high production - sales rate of 150, while Shahe is at 94, East China at 98, and South China at 101. The profit of glass production also shows different situations in different regions and using different energy sources [1]. - The soda ash market has seen price increases in some areas. However, the downstream拿货意愿 (willingness to purchase) is weak, and factory inventories are accumulating [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass Price - The prices of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, such as those of Shahe Anquan and Shahe Great Wall, are mostly stable, with only Shahe Great Wall increasing by 4.0 from July 7 to July 14. The lowest price in Shahe increased by 30.0 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 4.0 on July 14 compared to July 11. In Wuhan Changli and Hubei, the prices remained unchanged during the period. The lowest price in South China remained at 1400.0, and the price in Shandong also remained stable [1]. - For glass futures contracts, FG09 increased from 1019.0 on July 7 to 1102.0 on July 14, and FG01 increased from 1114.0 to 1196.0 during the same period [1]. Profit - The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 10.3 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 10.3 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of South China natural - gas glass remained at - 118.6. The profit of North China natural - gas glass increased by 13.2 from July 7 to July 11 but decreased by 10.3 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of 09FG and 01FG natural - gas on the futures market also increased during the period [1]. Market Conditions - The price of glass in Shahe's trading market is around 1156, and the sales of middle - stream traders are average, with only a small amount of futures - spot trading. In Hubei, the factory's lowest price is 1010 - 1020, and the manufacturers have raised prices with good sales. The new futures price is 960, with average trading volume [1]. Soda Ash Price - The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1160.0 on July 7 to 1230.0 on July 14. The price in Central China increased from 1130.0 to 1210.0, and the price in South China remained at 1400.0. The price of light soda ash in North China and Central China increased by 80.0 from July 7 to July 14 [1]. - For soda ash futures contracts, SA05 increased from 1236.0 on July 7 to 1311.0 on July 14, SA01 increased from 1207.0 to 1286.0, and SA09 increased from 1168.0 to 1241.0 [1]. Profit - The profit of North China ammonia - soda method increased by 74.3 from July 7 to July 14 and by 29.4 on July 14 compared to July 11. The profit of North China combined - soda method increased by 81.9 from July 7 to July 14 and by 31.8 on July 14 compared to July 11 [1]. Market Conditions - The spot price of heavy soda ash at the Hebei delivery warehouse is around 1210, and the price delivered to Shahe is around 1230. The downstream's willingness to purchase is weak, and factory inventories are accumulating [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market has shown a weak trend, with prices gradually declining. The weekly domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, also unchanged from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8634 million tons, an increase of 53,900 tons or 2.98% from the previous week. The enterprises' shipment slowed down, and some enterprises' inventories accumulated. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased to over 12 days, an increase of about 2 days [8]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: As of July 10, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.32%, the same as the previous week. The ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the co - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease. This week, the soda ash operating rate is expected to exceed 84%. The theoretical profit of China's co - production soda ash (double - ton) was - 39.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - alkali soda ash was - 82.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Demand - side**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass was 71.01%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The industry's production reduction rhythm is slow, demand is weak, and the high - inventory situation is difficult to reverse. The national daily output of float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase from July 3. The weekly output of float glass was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous week and a 7.16% decrease from the same period last year [15]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8634 million tons, a 2.98% increase from the previous week and a 106.22% increase from the same period last year. The inventory of soda ash enterprises continued to increase due to the poor purchasing enthusiasm of major downstream enterprises and weak follow - up of new orders [17]. 2.2 Position Analysis - As of July 11, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures market were 1,166,121, an increase of 56,509, and the short positions were 1,558,689, an increase of 94,504. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current profit of some soda ash enterprises is slightly in the red, and the domestic soda ash production is expected to rise to a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The expected output of downstream float glass will increase, while the daily melting volume of downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Against the backdrop of a loose supply - demand situation for soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises has risen to a high level, and it is expected that the soda ash inventory will remain at a high level in the near future. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the upper pressure on the 09 contract at the 1270 level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to setting stop - losses [2][21].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices rebound due to macro - sentiment, but the weak fundamental expectation remains unchanged. Adopt a short - selling approach on rallies, and consider short positions in the 14,000 - 14,500 range. Pay attention to raw material supply in each production area and US tariff changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, with a 0.70% increase. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) rose by 145 to - 10, a 93.55% increase. Other raw material prices showed various changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 860, a 1.15% increase; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 to - 40, a 27.27% increase; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 25 to 900, a - 2.70% decrease [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's rubber production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a 157.52% increase. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production decreased slightly, while the tire export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 14,802 tons to 632,090 tons, a 2.40% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 7,258 tons to 36,994 tons, a 24.41% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View For soda ash, although the futures price rebounded due to macro - sentiment and spot trading improved, the supply - demand situation remains in an obvious surplus, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, although the futures price is strong due to macro - sentiment, the demand is under pressure in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China showed small changes. The prices of glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 increased slightly [4]. - **Soda - ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable. The prices of soda ash futures contracts 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly [4]. - **Supply Data**: The operating rate of soda ash remained unchanged, and the weekly production was stable. The daily melting volume of float glass increased slightly, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory Data**: The glass market inventory decreased by 198,300 square meters to 67.102 million square meters, a - 2.87% decrease. The soda - ash factory inventory and delivery - warehouse inventory increased [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area showed different trends [4]. Group 3: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View In the fundamental aspect, the demand for logs enters the off - season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the supply is expected to decrease seasonally. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. Be vigilant against emotional price increases [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of some spot logs decreased, while the outer - market quotation increased [5]. - **Supply**: The port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a - 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 130,000 cubic meters to 3.23 million cubic meters, a - 3.87% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume increased by 12,000 cubic meters to 669,000 cubic meters [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of industrial silicon increased due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, with less impact from supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to increase further. Technically, it shows a strong - side fluctuation. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong, but short - selling can be considered if large - scale enterprises resume production or the price of polysilicon drops. Risk management is recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China and Xinjiang increased. The basis of different grades decreased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a 6.50% increase. The production of related downstream products also changed [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 26,200 tons to 123,900 tons, a - 17.46% decrease. The social inventory decreased slightly [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The price of polysilicon increased rapidly under the expectation of policies, but the market is cautious about the new price. There is a large discount in the futures market, and there is room for price repair. The market may fluctuate greatly next week. Attention should be paid to the price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon and risk management [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, while the basis of some types increased slightly [7]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The prices of polysilicon futures contracts and the spreads between different contracts showed various changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. The monthly production of polysilicon increased, while the import and export volumes changed [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The silicon - wafer inventory decreased [7].

周四纯碱现货报价多数稳定，贸易商环节报价跟随盘面持续回暖，沙河及周边地区重碱贸易自提价格 1221元/吨，日环比涨37元/吨。 7月10日，郑商所纯碱期货仓单4057张，环比上个交易日减少155张。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年7月11日当周，纯碱期货主力合约收于1217元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持195486 手。 本周（7月7日-7月11日）市场上看，纯碱期货周内开盘报1170元/吨，最高触及1244元/吨，最低下探至 1163元/吨，周度涨跌幅达2.79%。 消息面回顾： 截至7月10日，中国联碱法纯碱理论利润（双吨）为-39.50元/吨，环比下跌27元/吨。 建信期货：综合来看，目前现货市场情绪回暖，现货价格小幅上涨。与此同时，总库存虽然高位，但部 分区域库存结构有所改善，如沙河地区中游库存偏低，因此市场对库存去化有一定的短期博弈。叠加中 央会议关于反内卷的信号发文，仍短期影响着市场的情绪。但从供需关系看，夏季检修持续推进，纯碱 产量同比回落，因此供应端压力有所缓解；纯碱需求端受到浮法玻璃日熔量走低，以及光伏行业反内卷 的影响，下游玻璃的减产预期加大，因此需求端偏空看待。库存端企业库存出现 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025/7/3 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/7/3 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 | 1200.0 | 1180.0 | 1220.0 | 20.0 | 40.0 | SA05合 约 | 1229.0 | 1257.0 | 1287.0 | 58.0 | 30.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1160.0 | 1160.0 | 1190.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | S A 0 1合约 | 1209.0 | 1237.0 | 1269.0 | 60.0 | 32.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 1400.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | S A 0 9合约 | 1183.0 | 1194.0 | 1231.0 | 48.0 | 37.0 | | ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - With the improvement of rainfall in overseas production areas, the raw material prices in Thailand are gradually weakening, and the cost - side support is weakening. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and the change of US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. remained unchanged on July 9 compared with July 8. The full - milk basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly, and the prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market slightly declined [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The production of Thailand increased by 157.52%. The production of domestic tires decreased slightly, and the export volume increased by 7.72%. The import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35%. The production cost of dry glue in Thailand decreased slightly, and the production profit of STR20 increased by 13.40% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The polysilicon futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price continued to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon still faces the pressure of over - supply and inventory accumulation. Although the price is rising under the policy expectation, attention should be paid to the acceptance of downstream enterprises for the rising raw material prices and the subsequent terminal demand and consumption situation [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon increased, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively. The N - type material basis increased by 18.70%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 28.41% [3]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 2.31%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 298.85% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 11.46%, and the monthly output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The import volume of polysilicon decreased by 67.16%, and the export volume decreased by 37.06% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is expected to remain high in July, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is mixed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of production reduction, but the long - term over - supply pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and the impact of policies [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 88.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, while the production in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 13.19%, and the social inventory increased by 1.85% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash market rebounded under the influence of short - term news, the overall supply is still in an over - supply pattern. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to wait and look for opportunities to short on the rebound [6]. - **Glass**: The glass market rebounded under the influence of policy expectations, but the current demand is in the off - season, and the rigid demand is under pressure. It is necessary to wait for more cold - repair measures to achieve a real reversal of the market, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased slightly, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in East China decreased by 1.60%. The soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new - construction area, completion area, and sales area increased year - on - year, while the construction area decreased [6]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures fluctuated, and the prices of main benchmark delivery products decreased. The inventory decreased significantly last week, and the demand increased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the log market will enter a period of weak supply and demand in the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The prices of log futures contracts 2509 and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of main benchmark delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [8]. - **Cost**: The import theoretical cost increased by 4% due to the change of RMB - US dollar exchange rate [8]. - **Supply**: The port shipping volume increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 7.94% [8]. - **Inventory**: The national log inventory decreased by 3.87% week - on - week, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The national log daily average outbound volume increased by 2%, and the demand in Shandong increased by 10% [8].