Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of 5mm glass in various regions decreased. For example, the price of 5mm glass at Shache Anquan dropped from 1044.0 to 984.0, a decrease of 60.0; FG05 contract price decreased from 1076.0 to 1038.0, a decrease of 38.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shache's glass production - sales rate was 98, Hubei's was 75, East China's was 94, and South China's was 104. Shache factories had fair production - sales, while Shache traders' low - price sales were average, and futures - spot sales were good. Hubei's factory transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 91.8 to 63.9, a decrease of 27.9; 05FG's spot natural gas profit decreased from - 278.3 to - 313.0, a decrease of 34.6 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From Dec 9 to Dec 16, 2025, prices of heavy soda ash in some regions increased. For example, Shache's heavy soda ash price increased from 1120.0 to 1140.0, an increase of 20.0; SA05 contract price decreased from 1186.0 to 1170.0, a decrease of 16.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: Upstream soda ash inventory accumulated, and Yuanxing's second - phase project was put into production. North China's light soda ash price increased by 50.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda ash profit increased from - 277.1 to - 250.4, an increase of 26.7; North China's combined - soda ash profit increased from - 390.5 to - 363.9, an increase of 26.5 [2].

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 967 984 967 990 940 935 1016 1092 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 12合约 01合约 05合约 09合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(12/12） 昨日(12/11） 一周前(12/5） 一月前(11/12） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations; the near - month 01 contract of glass will follow the delivery logic with a focus on warehouse receipt games, while soda ash is cost - priced with limited upward valuation elasticity; currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, and soda ash is in a state of supply - demand surplus [2]. - For short - term trading, the 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. With unclear short - term drivers, it is advisable to observe [6]. Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: Some glass production lines may undergo cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, affecting far - month pricing. The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, and the middle - stream high inventory and off - season demand suppress spot prices [2]. - Soda ash: It is cost - priced. Although there are occasional supply cut - backs, new production capacities are pending, and the output remains at a medium - high level. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: There are still differences in the near - term spot market. The cold repair expectation and middle - stream high inventory require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. Observe due to unclear short - term drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average price of glass spot decreased slightly. The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 3.51%, the 09 contract by 3.02%, and the 01 contract by 2.2% [8][9]. - Soda ash: The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash also declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 2.34%, the 09 contract by 2.31%, and the 01 contract by 0.91% [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, leading to potential supply - side policy expectations [12]. - Bearish information: The high inventory of glass in the middle - stream persists, and there is still room for price cuts, affecting the delivery price of the 01 contract. New production capacities of soda ash are expected to be put into operation, and the expectation of glass cold repairs will reduce the rigid demand for soda ash [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near delivery. The increase in near - term cold repairs and middle - stream high inventory lead to differences in the spot market, while far - month supply cuts and cost increases may affect market pricing and expectations [15]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass began to narrow this week, showing a positive spread trend, mainly because the near - month contract has a low valuation and short - sellers shifted to far - month contracts. - Soda ash: It generally maintains a C - structure. This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread of soda ash strengthened from around - 70 to around - 30. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term outlook has deteriorated again [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas - fired production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,240 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1,170 yuan/ton [33][34]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in October exceeded 21 million tons, maintaining high expectations [36]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [43]. - Soda ash: The current daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 104,000 - 105,000 tons. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [46]. 5.2 Demand - side and Projections - Glass: Terminal demand remains weak, downstream replenishment is limited in the off - season, and the middle - stream maintains high - level low - price replenishment. The 01 contract mainly focuses on warehouse receipt games [49]. - Soda ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is temporarily stable, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken [58][59]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The manufacturer's inventory is 58.227 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.216 million weight boxes (- 2.05%), and a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [65]. - Soda ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4943 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons. The upstream inventory is being depleted, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good [65].

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供需弱平衡状态， 高库存制约涨势 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/12/13 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 价格：截至2025/12/13，浮法玻璃现货市场报价1040元/吨，环比-30元/吨；玻璃主力合约收盘报935元/吨，环比-59元/吨；基差105元/吨， 环比上周+29元/吨。 成本利润：截至2025/12/13，以天然气为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为-196.42元/吨，环比+26.58元/吨；河南LNG市场低端价4400元/吨， 环比+250元/吨。以煤炭为燃料生产浮法玻璃的周均利润为6.51元/吨，环比-0.01元/吨；以石油焦为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [3] - Methanol: Bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure, with many varieties facing supply - demand imbalances and cost - related challenges. Some varieties are facing supply surpluses, while others are affected by weakening cost support and uncertain demand prospects [1][3][6] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market performance**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.73%, Brent down 1.49%, and SC down 0.70% [7][8] - **Key drivers**: The supply surplus persists, with global crude oil inventories accelerating accumulation. OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and geopolitical factors may impact the market [9] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: US oil rig count increased, and global demand is expected to grow slightly in the future. US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic reserve inventories changed [10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [11] LPG - **Market performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [13] - **Key drivers**: The downward trend of crude oil prices drags down LPG, and inventory accumulation adds downward pressure [14] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Refinery production increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but inventory is rising [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions, and focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [15] L - **Market performance**: The price of L contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [17] - **Key drivers**: Cost support weakens, and the market is in a contango structure. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weakening [19] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic production starts to pick up seasonally, and port arrivals are sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing [19] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of L [6400 - 6550] [19] PP - **Market performance**: The price of PP contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [21] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and PDH device maintenance willingness is low. Inventory pressure is high, and demand is entering the off - season [23] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The parking ratio is declining, and there are few maintenance plans in the future. The OPEC+ production increase cycle may lead to further oil price declines [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions, and wait for a rebound to go short. Consider arbitrage strategies. Focus on the range of PP [6100 - 6250] and propylene [5600 - 5750] [23] PVC - **Market performance**: The price of PVC contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [24] - **Key drivers**: The market is at a discount to the spot, and the high - production - low - profit situation persists. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of northwest devices [26] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Up - middle stream inventory remains high, and demand is in the off - season. The comprehensive profit of enterprises is being compressed [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term; wait for inventory to decline for long - term long positions. Focus on the range of V [4200 - 4350] [26] PTA - **Market performance**: The price of PTA contracts increased, and spreads and processing fees changed [27] - **Key drivers**: Processing fees are low, and device maintenance intensity is high. Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is expected to weaken [28] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Multiple domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, and downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. Focus on the range of TA [4580 - 4670] [29] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market performance**: The price of MEG contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [30] - **Key drivers**: Domestic and overseas device loads decreased, but demand is expected to weaken, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in December [31] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or reduced load, downstream polyester production is high, but weaving orders are decreasing. Social inventory is slightly accumulating [31] - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [3540 - 3630] [32] Methanol - **Market performance**: The price of methanol contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [33] - **Key drivers**: High inventory suppresses the spot price, and the cost support weakens. Supply pressure is large, and demand changes little [34] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, overseas devices are reducing load, and port inventory is gradually decreasing. Demand from MTO and traditional downstream industries has different trends [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract, and look for low - buying opportunities on the 05 contract. Focus on the range of MA01 [2011 - 2075] [36] Urea - **Market performance**: The price of urea contracts declined, and spreads and other indicators changed [37] - **Key drivers**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening, and supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is short - term good but lacks sustainability [38] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Urea daily production is high, but some gas - head enterprises will stop for maintenance. Demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is increasing, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [39] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Focus on the range of UR [1620 - 1650] [40] Natural Gas - **Market performance**: On December 10, the NG main contract closed at 4.595 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.46% [43] - **Key drivers**: Demand enters the peak season, but the price has reached a high level, and the current supply is relatively abundant, putting pressure on the price [44] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms decreased, US production is expected to be stable, and inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.021 - 4.406] [45] Asphalt - **Market performance**: On December 11, the BU main contract closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79% [47] - **Key drivers**: The price is mainly affected by the decline of crude oil prices and the weak supply - demand situation [48] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: December refinery production is expected to decline, demand is increasing slightly, and inventory is decreasing [48] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2850 - 2950] [49] Glass - **Market performance**: The price of glass contracts declined, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [51] - **Key drivers**: Warehouse receipts increased, and the industrial outlook is weak. Supply is difficult to shrink significantly, and demand is weak [53] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: A production line in East China restarted, and the daily melting volume remained stable. Real - estate - related demand is weak, and inventory is high [53] - **Strategy recommendation**: Bearish in the short - term, wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [930 - 980] [53] Soda Ash - **Market performance**: The price of soda ash contracts had minor changes, and the main contract's basis and other spreads changed [55] - **Key drivers**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly, the basis weakened, and warehouse receipts remained high. Supply is expected to increase, and demand support is insufficient [57] - **Supply - demand fundamentals**: Factory inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and a large - scale device is expected to be put into production at the end of the month. The cold - repair expectation of float glass increases [57] - **Strategy recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of SA [1080 - 1130] [57]

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 1002.0 | -42.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1131.0 | 1062.0 | 1053.0 | -78.0 | -9.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1010.0 | 964.0 | 956.0 | -54.0 | -8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-11 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3117 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 38 元/吨（1.234%）。当日注册仓单 40679 吨, 环比增加 4858 吨。主力合约持仓量为 151.4218 万手，环比减少 79529 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨（0.922%）。 当日注册仓单 109014 吨, 环比减少 4718 吨。 ...

纯碱产业：中上游库存继续去化；远兴二期投料 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/3 2025/12/9 2025/12/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2025/12/3 | | 2025/12/9 2025/12/10 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1061.0 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | -59.0 | -42.0 | FG05合约 | 1125.0 | 1076.0 | 1062.0 | -63.0 | -14.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1036.0 | 1010.0 | 984.0 | -52.0 | -26.0 | FG01合约 | 1020.0 | 984.0 | 964.0 | -56 ...

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 2025/12/8 2025/12/9 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | 2025/12/2 | 2025/12/8 | | 2025/12/9 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 | 1061.0 | 1044.0 | 1044.0 | -17.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1145.0 | 1112.0 | 1076.0 | -69.0 | -36.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1044.0 | 1019.0 | 1010.0 | -34.0 | -9.0 | FG01合约 | 1034.0 | 1002.0 | 984.0 | -50.0 | -18.0 | | 5mm大板 | | ...

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 河北鑫利4.8mm（折5mm） 2022 2023 2024 2025 (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 华北玻璃生产利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1006 1044 1006 1040 1012 1002 1112 1169 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 沙河德金 沙河安全 沙河低价 湖北低价 12合约 01合约 05合约 09合约 玻璃价格结构 今日(12/8） 昨日(12/5） 一周前(12/1） 一月前(11/10） (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 华南玻璃利润（气） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 玻璃：河北低价大板 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 ...