Group 1: Economic Outlook - The February CPI growth in the U.S. was lower than expected, indicating a continued cooling trend in inflation, but did not reflect the impact of recent tariffs [1] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a -2.4% GDP for Q1 2025, highlighting rising recession risks due to various economic signals [2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment rates and increased layoffs, suggesting a challenging economic environment ahead [2] Group 2: Commodity and Industry Analysis - The Congolese government's decision to suspend cobalt exports for four months could lead to a global cobalt supply shortage, potentially driving prices up [3] - The domestic storage market is expected to grow significantly, with industry value projected to reach $167 billion by 2024, driven by increased demand for AI and domestic replacements [7] - The domestic market for distribution systems is anticipated to expand significantly, with a projected market size of over 50 billion yuan for switchgear and 10-15 billion yuan for low-voltage electrical appliances by 2025 [11] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, driven by multiple factors including capital inflows and valuation advantages [9] - The textile and apparel sector is seeing rapid growth in urban outlet formats, with key players emerging in the market [4][5] - The magnesium alloy market is expected to grow due to increasing demand from automotive and robotics sectors, with domestic companies poised to benefit from this trend [12]

摘要 全 球最大钴生产国刚果（金）将暂停钴产品出口四个月。 刚果（金）暂停钴产品出口四个月的决定正于三元正极产业链中掀起波澜。 产业链对价格波动的反应迅速。上游冶炼厂库存普遍不高，仅能支撑约一个月生产。面对价格上 涨，厂商惜售情绪增强，不断调高报价，试探下游承接能力。同时，部分正极材料企业选择暂停报 价和接单，以应对原料端价格的不确定性。 与此同时，部分钴企正采取措施应对供应紧张局面。例如，华友钴业宣布，其印尼年产5万吨高镍动 力电池三元前驱体材料项目二期已于2月28日全面竣工，即将进入爬产阶段，旨在利用印尼镍钴资源 填补供应缺口。中伟股份则通过参股腾远钴业、提前储备钴金属，并采用富氧侧吹工艺提升自供比 例，以降低供应链风险。 值得注意的是，尽管冶炼厂当前仍有一定备库，但刚果（金）至中国的海运周期长达70-80天，这意 味着政策对供应的实际影响可能会在2025年7月进一步显现。届时，冶炼厂库存是否足以弥补四个 月的出口停滞，成为市场关注的关键。 此外，尽管短期内钴价大幅上涨，但需求端仍面临压力。国内库存仍处于较高水平，动力电池和数 码消费市场的需求预期仍有不确定性。从长期来看，产业链正加速推进低钴化策略，以降 ...

2月22日，全球最大钴生产国刚果（金）宣布暂停钴产品出口四个月，旨在缓解市场供应过剩 与价格低迷。这一政策引发全球钴供应链震荡，截至2月28日，国内电解钴价已攀升至18.3万 元/吨，较近期低点涨幅超20%。市场供需格局面临短期重塑，但中长期钴价走势仍受需求增长 乏力与替代技术发展的双重制约。 一、刚果金出口禁令冲击全球钴供应链 供应端缺口显著，市场预期分化 刚果（金）财政赤字率达GDP的8.7%，出口收入压力可能迫使该国在三个月评估期内调整政 策。同时，印尼计划2025年新增1.5万吨钴产能，将部分对冲供应缺口。叠加动力电池领域磷 酸铁锂替代加速，钴市场长期需求增长仍存隐忧。 二、产业链分化下的企业应对策略 上游企业：多元化布局缓解供应风险 中国企业在刚果（金）的核心项目暂未受直接影响。洛阳钼业表示其TFM和KFM矿区维持正常 生产，同时印尼镍钴湿法项目可提供替代资源；中伟股份通过参股腾远钴业、提前储备钴金 属，并利用富氧侧吹工艺提升自供比例，有效分散供应链风险。2023年，中伟股份四氧化三钴 出货量超3万吨，全球市占率26%，技术优势助力其稳固市场地位。 下游企业：成本压力倒逼采购策略调整 电池制造商通过 ...