1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View Copper - In the short - term, copper prices are expected to range - bound between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Macro factors like US economic data and tariff policies, along with fundamental supply - demand and inventory conditions, will influence the price. The market is in a state of short - term supply - demand weakness during the off - season, but "tight mining end + demand resilience" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton this week. The market will experience a game between short - term supply disturbances and over - capacity. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract price ranging from 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors include supply and demand fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,400 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as tight scrap aluminum supply and weak terminal demand [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Upward rebound requires continuous inventory reduction and improved interest - rate cut expectations without overseas economic recession. Downward breakthrough needs stronger TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. The current supply - demand situation provides limited support for continuous price increase, but low inventory provides price support [9]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate. Supply is currently tight, and demand is expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward price space [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract operating range of 13,000 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Cost support is strengthening, but the weak spot demand restricts the fundamentals [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate widely in a relatively strong range, around 85,000 yuan/ton. The market is affected by short - term news, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and consider light - position long - entry at low prices [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 79,435 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.05%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 53.62 yuan/ton to 65TT yuan/ton, a decline of 4.54%. The import profit and loss increased by 119.85 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74% [1]. - The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 9.80 million tons to 61.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.79% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 20,710 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.24%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.4 million tons to 58.80 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.26% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamentals - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.22%. The import profit and loss increased by 80.61 yuan/ton to - 1,813 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamentals - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97% [9]. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons to 12.92 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.13% [9]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 269,500 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.26%. The import profit and loss decreased by 717.98 yuan/ton to - 16,507.39 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamentals - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94% [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.36%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamentals - China's refined nickel production in the reference period decreased by 3,220 tons to 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume increased by 10,325 tons to 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,200 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.38%. The 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamentals - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) decreased by 6.83 million tons to 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83% [16]. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.50 million tons to 49.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.23%. The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamentals - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62% [19]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in July decreased by 2,012 tons to 97,846 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% [19].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on August 14, 2025, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) experiencing a slight adjustment after four consecutive days of gains, down 0.28% at midday [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Lithium Industry Branch issued a proposal on August 12, advocating for a rational layout of new capacity, long-term cooperation agreements to stabilize market supply, and promoting optimization and collaboration within the industry chain [1] - The proposal calls for industry-related enterprises to take action against "involutionary" competition, aiming to create a fair, just, and orderly market environment, and to advance the lithium industry towards high-end, intelligent, and sustainable high-quality development [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities noted that the "anti-involution" policy is being continuously promoted, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation drafting a revised price law, which is expected to guide price order regulation [1] - As a result of these policies, prices for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have significantly rebounded, with a slight increase in module prices, indicating initial success in price transmission from the silicon material end [1] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to undergo necessary consolidation and clearing, with projections indicating a stable development phase by 2027, highlighting the comparative advantages of the silicon material segment in terms of capacity and cost [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the first ETF in the market tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering various sectors within the new energy and electric vehicle industries, including batteries and photovoltaics, characterized by high elasticity and strong growth potential [2] - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, totaling only 0.2%, making it the lowest fee product in its category, facilitating quick investment opportunities for investors [2] - Investors are encouraged to continuously monitor potential investment opportunities in the future development of the new energy sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 82,560, with a volume of 162,667 and an open interest of 117,650. Compared to previous periods, there were significant changes in volume and open interest [2] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 82,520, with a large volume of 1,417,704 and an open interest of 356,998. Volume and open interest also showed notable fluctuations [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 20,829 hands, with changes compared to previous periods [2] - **Basis**: The basis between different contracts and product grades showed various changes [2] - **Raw Materials**: Lithium concentrate prices and other raw material prices changed compared to previous periods [2] - **Lithium Salts**: Prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium salts increased compared to the previous day [2][3] - **Downstream Products**: Prices of products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had different degrees of change [2] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 78,124 yuan/ton, up 3,557 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,800 yuan/ton, both up 3,500 yuan/ton [3] - The Lithium Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream collaboration, maintain industrial safety, and resist "involution - style" vicious competition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Branch has issued a proposal to promote healthy and orderly development in the lithium industry, emphasizing the importance of industry self-discipline and collaboration to prevent "involution" and ensure supply chain security [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Self-Discipline and Collaboration - The proposal calls for strengthening upstream and downstream collaboration to maintain industry safety, adhering to the principle of fair market competition, and resisting disorderly competition, market monopolies, and false advertising [2][3]. - Companies are encouraged to actively assess market trends and rationally plan new production capacities while enhancing strategic cooperation and information transparency within the industry [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation and Sustainable Development - The initiative emphasizes increasing research and development investments to foster innovation, improve product quality, and avoid homogenized competition through technological, managerial, and model innovations [3]. - It advocates for green production practices, promoting sustainable development by optimizing mining and refining processes to reduce pollution and carbon emissions [3]. Group 3: Compliance and Standardization - Companies are urged to comply with statistical regulations, ensuring accurate reporting of production and sales data, and to establish a self-regulatory supervision mechanism within the industry [3]. - The proposal encourages participation in the formulation of international and national standards to enhance the international competitiveness and influence of the lithium industry [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains unclear, inflation hasn't slowed due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell adopts a wait - and - see attitude towards the subsequent interest rate cut path. The result of Sino - US trade negotiations is an extension of 90 days, and the tariff result is yet to be further negotiated. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on US electrolytic copper has failed, leading to a sharp decline in US copper prices and the end of the US - LME copper arbitrage. The upward momentum for non - US copper prices has ended. - During the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand. However, after the copper price drops, the spot trading improves marginally. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. - Without a clear interest rate cut path and significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the failure of the US copper tariff, the non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3900 yuan/ton, but the global mine output growth in May and the domestic mine output growth in June are both lower than expected. - With TC entering an upward cycle and smelting profits being continuously repaired, smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal level. The supply of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side is significantly suppressed by the rising disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries are weak due to factors such as the rise and fall of ferrous metal prices and the off - season of demand. - The low spot premium and low inventory level provide price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter a replenishment cycle. In the short term, with the landing of domestic and foreign macro events, without substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations and Sino - US economic macro expectations, the zinc price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure, and the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory is at a historical low, which supports the short - term price rebound and reduces the basis. However, the impact of "anti - involution" on the alumina industry is minimal except for the emotional aspect. The recovery of production capacity and new production due to profit repair will jointly increase the spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3000 - 3400 in the short term. - For aluminum, yesterday's aluminum price remained volatile. In the off - season, the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the market discount continues to expand. The domestic consumption stimulus atmosphere is still strong, and the "anti - involution" has a certain supporting effect on the aluminum price, but the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty to the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio drives the inventory to bottom out. The demand side is weak, with weak construction and real - estate completion, declining household appliance exports, and weakening orders after the end of photovoltaic installations. Only the demand for new - energy vehicle lightweighting remains resilient. In the face of the pressure of inventory replenishment expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, the aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 this month [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy disk price follows the aluminum price and fluctuates. The market trading is mainly for hedging by spot - futures traders to shrink the aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference, and the terminal trading is sluggish. The social inventory in the main consumption areas has increased significantly, and areas such as Ningbo and Foshan are close to full storage. - On the supply side, due to the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import price is inverted, and Thailand has stopped issuing licenses to recycling factories, resulting in a shortage of scrap aluminum supply in the current market, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, it is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. The orders in the terminal automotive industry are weak, and downstream die - casting enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the market, maintaining a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy and having a strong willingness to bargain. The weak demand situation will continue to suppress the upward momentum of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The domestic tin ore imports in June remained at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, and it is expected to start shipping around the end of August. - On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the orders for photovoltaic tin strips in the East China region have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The electronic consumption in the South China region has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of soldering enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of the US tariff policy on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for the tin price, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the weak data on the US employment and factory orders have increased the market's expectation of the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. In China, during the policy window period of the meeting, seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization. - At the industrial level, yesterday's spot price continued to rise, and the premiums of various brands remained stable. The ore price is mainly stable. Philippine mines are mostly in the shipping stage. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore is mostly around CIF42, and that of 1.4% nickel ore is mostly around CIF50. The domestic iron mills mostly maintain reduced - load production, and the supply of nickel ore still needs time to recover, so nickel iron still has cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. In the new - energy sector, the downstream ternary materials have a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have increased. - In the short term, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals change little. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - Macroscopically, similar to nickel, the weak US data increases the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, and China has introduced relevant policies. - At the industrial level, the ore price is mainly stable. The market negotiation range has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron quotation has risen to 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold). Iron mills are operating at a loss and reducing production, and steel mills are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude in raw material procurement. The chromium - iron price is weakly stable, and there is still a small room for callback in the spot price due to the decline in the procurement price of chromium - iron steel mills. The supply of stainless - steel mills has decreased due to maintenance, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce. The terminal demand remains weak, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, while the growth rate of the emerging downstream is generally expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and although the bargaining space for traders has increased, the trading volume is still difficult to increase. The social inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, and the warehouse receipts continue to decrease. - In the short term, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy directions and supply - demand rhythms [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate disk rose overall. There was a lot of news about mine shutdowns, and the market's expectation of short - term production suspension has fermented. The mine - right approval is approaching the deadline, but the actual result has not been clearly determined. The uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance situation meets expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and although some production lines are under maintenance, the supply remains sufficient. The production data decreased last week, and the marginal growth rate of supply has slightly slowed down. The demand performance is stable, and the seasonal characteristics are fading. The battery cell orders are okay, and the material production scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expectation. However, due to the off - season and inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Recently, the market sentiment and news - related disturbances dominate the disk trend, and the trading core has shifted to the mine end. There are many matters to be verified in the news. The main price center is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [13][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.34% to 78,350 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 20.82% to 660 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 increased by 1.51 to - 49.25 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 120.22 to - 142 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.15 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. - The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton; the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% to 52.16 million tons. - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 2.36 to 71.73%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production increased by 1.98 to 29.29%. - The domestic social inventory increased by 12.97% to 13 million tons; the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.34% to 8.11 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.20% to 7.25 million tons. - The LME inventory increased by 1.48% to 15.61 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 0.39% to 26.22 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 96.18% to 2.03 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Related Indicators - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,330 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 75.56 to - 1474 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.01 to 8.07 [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 130 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 145 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the refined zinc export volume was 0.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. - The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.65 to 56.77%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 2.79 to 48.24%; the zinc oxide operating rate increased by 0.14 to 56.13%. - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 3.47% to 10.73 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 3.79% to 9.7 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.54% to 20,630 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 39.9 to - 1294 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.02 to 8.03. - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 19.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 million tons. - The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.99% to 50.00%; the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.32% to 61.80%; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate remained unchanged at 63.20%; the aluminum foil operating rate decreased by 1.01% to 68.90%; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1.11% to 54.60%. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.82% to 56.40 million tons; the LME inventory increased by 0.41% to 46.8 million tons [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC15, SMM East China ADC12, SMM South China ADC12, SMM Northeast ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,150 yuan/ton; the price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton;

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term price is under pressure due to the disappointment of the 50% US copper tariff expectation, with the main price range expected to be 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak actual demand", and the spot contradiction is gradually resolved [1]. Aluminum - The short - term main contract of alumina is expected to run in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to arrange short positions on rallies in the medium term. Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short term, with the main contract price range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction and demand changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The subsequent demand will remain weak, suppressing the upward momentum of prices. However, the downward space is limited due to the high cost of scrap aluminum. The disk is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the supply improvement of refined zinc lags behind, and the demand is affected by the seasonal off - season [7]. Tin - It is recommended to wait and see. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations and inventory changes after the resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the disk is expected to be adjusted within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro - expectation is changeable, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [11]. Stainless Steel - The short - term disk is mainly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the terminal demand is weak [12][13]. Lithium Carbonate - The main price is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without positions, and consider shorting the near - term contract and longing the far - term contract for inter - period trading. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and supply adjustments [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.91% to 78,565 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 14.18% to 844 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 66,837 tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 23.23% to 56.09 tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.44% to 20,580 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 tons. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.06% to 54.40 tons [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 tons. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.59% to 3.26 tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.68% to 22,300 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 20.54 yuan/ton to - 1602 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 45 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 tons. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 4.98% to 10.32 tons [7]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.97% to 265,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 166.76% to - 7.01 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 5.93% to - 15,773.30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 380 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.36% to 9,958 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.46% to 121,250 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 62.17% to - 3,863 yuan/ton [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. The social inventory increased by 2.97% to 40,338 tons [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures spread increased by 32.50% to 265 yuan/ton [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2509 - 2510 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 tons. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.20% to 51.48 tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.30% to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 48.70% to 4,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2508 - 2509 increased by 60 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.41% to 81,530 tons, and imports decreased by 16.31% to 17,698 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 88,888 tons [14].

1. Copper Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Macroeconomically, the expected US tariff increase on copper is 50% to be implemented at the end of July. The 232 investigation weakens the logic of LME copper squeezing and US restocking. Fundamentally, there are still contradictions in copper mine supply, and demand has weakened at high copper prices. Global visible inventory, LME inventory, and Chinese social inventory are low, except for COMEX due to US restocking. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "loose supply expectation and weak demand". The negotiation of reciprocal tariffs will also disturb copper prices. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 78,000 [1]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,615 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 15 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. Other copper prices and premiums also show corresponding changes [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. have decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.56 dollars/ton week - on - week. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and regenerated copper rod changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [1]. 2. Aluminum Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum price broke through the recent resistance level and reached a new high due to low warehouse receipts and inventory and short - term tightening of spot supply. Fundamentally, the alumina market will remain slightly oversupplied in July - August. The current aluminum price is high, but under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectation, weak demand, and macro - disturbances, it is expected to remain under pressure in the short term. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 20,800 [3]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,820 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also increased slightly. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed accordingly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% month - on - month. The operating rates of different aluminum products and inventories in different regions also changed [3]. 3. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. It is expected to be in a weak shock, and the main contract is expected to operate between 19,200 - 20,000. Attention should be paid to the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and marginal changes in imports [4]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. Inter - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.9 million tons, up 1.49% month - on - month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.10 million tons, up 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of different types of enterprises and inventories also changed [4]. 4. Zinc Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The zinc ore supply is in a long - term loose trend. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, but the improvement lags behind the ore end. The demand has weakened marginally. The low inventory provides price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter the inventory accumulation cycle. In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loose cycle. The main contract is expected to operate between 21,500 - 23,000. Attention should be paid to the TC growth rate and the rhythm of US tariff policies [8]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous day. The import profit and loss, inter - month spreads, etc. changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, up 6.50% month - on - month. The operating rates of different zinc processing industries changed, and inventories in different regions also changed [8]. 5. Nickel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The nickel price rebounded, and the macro - sentiment eased. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose. The refined nickel cost support has loosened, and the medium - term supply is still loose, restricting the upward space of the price. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [10]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day. The prices and costs of different nickel products and related indicators such as LME 0 - 3, import profit and loss, etc. changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month, and the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [10]. 6. Tin Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The actual tin ore supply remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and in the electronic consumption off - season. In the short term, there are large macro - disturbances. Hold the previous high - level short positions and pay attention to changes in US tariff policies [14]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 160.00% [14]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2508 - 2509, etc. changed significantly [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% month - on - month, while SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month - on - month. Import and export volumes of refined tin and other data also changed [14]. 7. Stainless Steel Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The stainless steel market is strong, but the spot trading is light. The nickel ore supply is relatively loose, and the nickel - iron price is weak. The steel mill's production reduction is less than expected, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel mill production reduction schedules [15]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The inter - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions also changed [15]. 8. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The lithium carbonate futures market fluctuated narrowly. The macro - situation has uncertainties. The supply of lithium carbonate is relatively sufficient, and the demand is stable but difficult to boost significantly. The inventory is still at a high level. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate between 60,000 - 65,000. Attention should be paid to macro - risks [17]. - **Summary by Directory** - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 63,650 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The prices and spreads of different lithium products changed [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts such as 2507 - 2508, 2507 - 2509, etc. decreased [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month. The demand, import, and export volumes, and inventories in different links also changed [17].