铅周报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 供需双弱不变 铅价延续震荡 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价震荡收敛。宏观面看，美联储按兵 不动符合预期，国内释放一揽子金融政策，叠加特朗 普关税取得部分进展，市场情绪缓和。 要点 基本面看，受关税影响，铅矿原料铅矿维持偏紧，内 外加工费低位维稳。原生铅炼厂减复产并存，山东恒 邦月初开始为期一个月减产，广西南方 5 月中 ...

来源：环球网 5月10日，陕西锌业锌冶炼技术升级改造论证会在西安召开，会议邀请陕西有色金属集团党委委员、副 总经理黄忠良及集团科研技术创新部经理王小翔、企管运营信息部副经理李晓瑜、战略发展改革部副经 理王帅等部门负责人和株洲冶炼集团股份有限公司副总经理刘卫平，云锡文山锌铟冶炼有限公司董事长 朱北平，广西南丹南方公司原总经理陈二云，中金岭南韶关冶炼厂副厂长曾平生，云南驰宏锌锗股份有 限公司副总经理戴兴征等5名一流冶炼企业人员；昆明理工大学冶金与能源工程学院院长郭胜惠，东北 大学冶金学院院长豆志河，西安建筑科技大学冶金工程学院院长李林波，中南大学冶金与环境学院副院 长刘恢，昆明理工大学冶金与能源工程学院教授李兴彬；北京科技大学冶金与生态学院副院长马保中 （线上）等6名冶金行业知名高校教授及中国恩菲工程技术有限公司副总工程师殷书岩，长沙有色冶金 设计研究院有限公司副总工程师陈龙义等2名科研院所专家共同组成"智囊团"对陕西锌业锌冶炼技术升 级改造进行论证，论证会推选株冶集团副总经理刘卫平任论证会专家组组长。会议由公司党委副书记、 总经理徐靖主持。 冶炼工艺及装备升级改造势在必行。陕西锌业前期开展的赤铁矿法除铁炼锌工艺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].

5月10日，国家统计局发布数据显示，4月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降 0.1%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比下降2.7%。 4月份CPI环比由降转涨，同比降幅与上月相同，核心CPI涨幅稳定，PPI环比降幅与上月相同，部分工 业行业价格同比继续呈现稳中向好走势。中国人民银行最新发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报 告》认为，随着扩大内需政策落地显效，市场需求加快释放，将更好支撑物价水平温和回升。 食品、出行服务表现好于季节性 4月份，CPI环比上涨0.1%。其中，食品价格上涨0.2%，非食品价格上涨0.1%；消费品价格持平，服务 价格上涨0.3%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，从环比看，CPI由降转涨，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分 点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。 4月份，我国促消费等宏观政策加力扩围，高技术产业加快成长等带动的部分工业品出厂价格回暖的现 象持续。 一方面，各地基建施工稳步推进、水泥企业错峰生产执行良好，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业、非金属矿 物制品业价格同比降幅比上月分别收窄1.4个和1.0个百分点。促消费和设备更新等政策继 ...

5月10日，国家统计局发布数据显示，4月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，同比下降0.1%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.4%，同比 下降2.7%。 4月份CPI环比由降转涨，同比降幅与上月相同，核心CPI涨幅稳定，PPI环比降幅与上月相同，部分工业行业价格同比继续呈现稳中向好走势。中国人民银行最新发 布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》认为，随着扩大内需政策落地显效，市场需求加快释放，将更好支撑物价水平温和回升。 食品、出行服务表现好于季节性 4月份，CPI环比上涨0.1%。其中，食品价格上涨0.2%，非食品价格上涨0.1%；消费品价格持平，服务价格上涨0.3%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示，从环比看，CPI由降转涨，涨幅高于季节性水平0.2个百分点，主要是食品、出行服务回升带动。 食品价格的带动包括部分地区进入海洋休渔期，海水鱼价格上涨；新果上市初期供给季节性减少，薯类和鲜果价格上涨等情况，也包括受进口量减少等因素影响， 牛肉价格上涨等情况。此外，鲜菜和猪肉价格降幅小于季节性有一定影响。 同时，4月份，受需求回暖及假日因素共同影响，出行服务价格回升明显。飞机票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The supplementary legal opinion outlines the compliance of Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd.'s stock issuance to specific targets, particularly focusing on the shareholding structure and the use of raised funds for debt repayment and working capital replenishment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Issuance and Shareholding - The stock issuance is directed towards the controlling shareholder, Shudao Group, which will increase its shareholding from 31.31% to 47.16% post-issuance [3][4]. - Shudao Group has committed to a lock-up period of 36 months for the newly acquired shares, complying with relevant regulations [5][6]. - The lock-up period for shares held prior to the issuance is set at 18 months, also meeting regulatory requirements [7]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The raised funds amounting to approximately 1.505 billion yuan (150,541.69 million) are intended for repaying debts related to Jinding Zinc Industry, which is linked to the company's original main business [10][12]. - The debts from Jinding Zinc Industry arose from a court ruling confirming the invalidity of the company's 60% equity stake in Jinding Zinc, resulting in a repayment obligation of approximately 637.39 million yuan [8][10]. - The funds will also be used to alleviate the financial burden on the company, which has a high debt ratio of 82.87% as of the reporting period [11][12]. Group 3: Legal Compliance and Risk Management - The legal opinion confirms that the stock issuance and the associated lock-up periods comply with the Securities Law and relevant regulations [13][24]. - The company has resolved all debts related to the Jinding Zinc contract dispute, and the previously frozen assets are no longer subject to disposal or sale, having been released from restrictions [22][24]. - The company has successfully claimed its rights in the bankruptcy proceedings of Hongda Group, confirming no other debt disputes exist [15][24].

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月09日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-05-08 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3351.99 | 10197.65 | 3852.89 | 11359.70 | 2825.99 | 1026.43 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.27 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 1.48 | -0.36 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5016.11 | 7917.66 | 2469.87 | 2808.35 | 3757.92 | 217.02 | 宏观快评:美国 5 月 FOMC 会议点评-政策观望窗口期延长，短期重心仍在 通胀 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信周频高技术制造业扩散指数略有 下降 固定收益周报:政府债务周度观察-土地收储项目披露超 3500 亿 行业与公司 非银行业快评:《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》点评-重权益 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+640；偏多。 3、库存：5月7日LME锌库存较上日减少1525吨至171400吨，5月7日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少199吨至2053吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均 ...

2025/5/8 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,550.00 -0.30% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 0.00% 16,700.00 沪铅基差 元/吨 -150.00 -50.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - - 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -17.64 -2.43 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.80 -0.70 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -50.00 30.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 20.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 5.00 15.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 44,962.00 24.39% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 36,929.00 -3.97% 成交持仓比 / 1.22 29.53% LME库存 吨 0.00% 256,700.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 39,981.00 -0.06% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 0.00% 1,923.00 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.00% 8.68 SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 22,700.00 -0.39% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,210.00 -0.6 ...

| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铅锌日评20250507：原料偏紧与需求不佳博弈，铅价区间整理；沪锌宽幅整理 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/7 | 指标 | 单位 | | | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | 16,600.00 | | | -0.60% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 ...