1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year [1][2]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI change shifted from decline to increase, with a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5%. This reflects the resilience of the economy [2][4]. - Food prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery during the holiday period [3][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international factors and seasonal declines in energy prices [8][10]. - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price recovery, with reduced year-on-year declines in sectors such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech industries and construction activities contributed to a positive trend in some industrial prices, with specific sectors like wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing showing price increases [5][6]. - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil-related industries, leading to price drops in sectors such as petroleum extraction and refining [10]. Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China anticipates that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will support a moderate recovery in price levels [2][11]. - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are expected to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+640；偏多。 3、库存：5月7日LME锌库存较上日减少1525吨至171400吨，5月7日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少199吨至2053吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均 ...

沪锌期货早报-2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22940，基差+585；偏多。 3、库存：5月6日LME锌库存较上日减少875吨至172925吨，5月6日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少102吨至2252吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：002114 证券简称：罗平锌电 公告编号：2025-017 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息 的真实、准确、完整。 3.第一季度报告是否经审计 □是 √否 ■ （二） 非经常性损益项目和金额 √适用 □不适用 单位：元 ■ 其他符合非经常性损益定义的损益项目的具体情况 □适用 √不适用 一、主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 √否 公司不存在其他符合非经常性损益定义的损益项目的具体情况。 将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告第1号一一非经常性损益》中列举的非经常性损益项目界 定为经常性损益项目的情况说明 □适用 √不适用 公司不存在将《公开发行证券的公司信息披露解释性公告 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 2、基差：现货22970，基差+420；偏多。 4月29日期货交易所锌期货行情 3、库存：4月29日LME锌库存较上日减少1775吨至177550吨，4月29日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少427吨至2429吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向下；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空增；偏空。 6、预期：LME库存仓单迅速下降；上期所仓单继续下降；沪锌ZN2506：震 荡盘整。 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66 ...

前十大流通股东累计持有： 11005.79万股，累计占流通股比： 34.04%，较上期变化： 45.26万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比例 | 增减情况(万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | 股) | | 罗平县锌电公司 | 8859.76 | 27.40 | 不变 | | 华融晋商资产管理股份有限公司 | 515.54 | 1.59 | 不变 | | 保宁资本有限公司-保宁新兴市场中小企基金(美国) | 347.57 | 1.07 | -10.12 | | 徐开东 | 282.10 | 0.87 | 100.87 | | 李川城 | 261.10 | 0.81 | 新进 | | 徐小蓉 | 222.08 | 0.69 | 47.36 | | 李子东 | 170.00 | 0.53 | 新进 | | 何贤贤 | 122.16 | 0.38 | 新进 | | 周伟林 | 113.48 | 0.35 | 新进 | | 牛江涛 | 112.00 | 0.35 | 新进 | | 较上个报告期退出前十大股东有 | | | | | 赵岳军 | 200.0 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].

2025年04月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | LPG：成本关税两面夹击，关注下游负反馈 | 53 | | --- | --- | | PVC：短期承压 | 56 | | 燃料油：外盘原油大跌，盘面或大幅回撤 | 58 | | 低硫燃料油：预计开盘下跌，外盘高低硫价差延续走阔 | 58 | | 集运指数（欧线）：6-10正套、8-10正套、10-12反套持有 | 59 | | 短纤：成本坍塌，弱势运行 | 62 | | 瓶片：成本坍塌，弱势运行 | 62 | | 豆粕：关税扰动、美豆跌幅较大，连粕或偏强、但谨防冲高回落风险 | 63 | | 豆一：跟随豆类市场波动，防止冲高回落 | 63 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 65 | | 白糖：宏观主导，跟随大势 | 66 | | 棉花：短期内有下行风险 | 67 | | 鸡蛋：关注8-9正套 | 69 | | 生猪：现货跌幅不及预期，情绪偏强 | 70 | | 花生：关注上货 | 71 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 | 黄金：对等关税政策落地 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：警惕大幅下跌表现 | 3 | | 铜：美国超 ...