1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The copper market shows a strengthening upward trend due to factors such as reduced global copper mine supply, decreased domestic inventories, and industry opposition to "involution" competition [3][4][7]. - The alumina market has limited downward space as prices are below the theoretical full - cost, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [11][12][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, with consumption showing resilience as indicated by the reduction in social inventories [18][21]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has alloy ingot spot prices remaining stable and slightly strong, with market expectations being positive [23][25]. - The zinc market may see a small surplus in September, and the overseas market's inventory reduction may support zinc prices, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [30][31]. - The lead market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation as multiple factors are intertwined [36][37]. - The nickel market is affected by positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and prices are oscillating strongly [40][42]. - The stainless steel market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with cost support and slow inventory reduction [47][50]. - The tin market has limited supply improvement, weak demand, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [54][56]. - The industrial silicon market's price is affected by polysilicon production and market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate with long positions [61][63][64]. - The polysilicon market is expected to see a small increase in inventory, and it is recommended to trade with low - long band operations [66][67][69]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, with supply and demand factors both having an impact [71][72][74]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 89,053 lots to 552,800 lots [2]. - Spot: The Shanghai copper spot reported a premium of 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Guangdong market reported a premium of 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the North China market reported a discount of 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Important Information** - As of September 25, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.44 million tons to 1.401 million tons compared to Monday, and it was the first weekly decline after four consecutive weeks of increase [3]. - Goldman Sachs lowered its global copper mine supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with a total reduction of 525,000 tons in copper mine supply [4]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Grasberg incident has changed the long - term supply - demand structure, intensifying the tightness of copper mines. The industry's opposition to "involution" competition has increased market bullish sentiment [7]. - Consumption shows a weak peak season, and downstream acceptance of high prices is insufficient [7]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is rising rapidly, and the bullish trend is strengthening [8]. - Arbitrage: Continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10] 3.2 Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The alumina 2601 contract increased by 48 yuan to 2,942 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot: The alumina spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [11]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, an increase of 78,000 tons from last week [12]. - The strike at the Guinean bauxite mine and the reduction in the price of mainstream mines in Guinea and Australia have affected the market [12][14]. - **Logic Analysis** - The price is below the theoretical full - cost, with limited downward space, but the fundamental oversupply situation restricts price rebound [15]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price rebounds slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 3,000 yuan [16]. - Arbitrage: Reverse calendar spread arbitrage [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract increased by 80 yuan to 20,765 yuan/ton [18]. - Spot: The aluminum ingot spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China all increased [18]. - **Related Information** - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [18]. - On September 25, the domestic aluminum ingot spot inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [18]. - The 500,000 - ton first - phase electrolytic aluminum project of Indonesia's Adaro - Liqin is expected to be put into production in stages at the end of 2025 [18]. - **Trading Logic** - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is cautious about further cuts. The rise in copper prices has driven the rebound of LME aluminum, and the reduction in social inventories shows consumption resilience [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices rebound with the sector [27]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27] 3.4 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 45 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton [23]. - Spot: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot prices in some regions increased, while others remained flat [23]. - **Related Information** - The "Notice on Implementing Policies for Regulating Investment Promotion Behaviors" has an impact on the recycled aluminum industry [23]. - On September 24, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased [23]. - **Trading Logic** - Some enterprises are stocking up for the National Day holiday, and the demand for die - casting plants is increasing, with alloy ingot prices remaining stable and slightly strong [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The alloy futures price rebounds with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [28]. - Options: Wait and see [28] 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai zinc 2511 increased by 0.59% to 22,045 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index's positions decreased by 14,900 lots to 238,500 lots [29]. - Spot: The spot trading in the Shanghai market was average, with downstream enterprises having low enthusiasm for purchasing [29]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the domestic seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 0.80 million tons compared to September 18 [30]. - A smelter in South China resumed production on September 25, with a total impact of 4,000 tons during the maintenance period [30]. - The winning bid price of a zinc mine in North China decreased by 200 yuan/metal ton [30]. - **Logic Analysis** - The refined zinc supply in September may have a small reduction, but the monthly output is still at a relatively high level. The downstream's low - price purchasing has led to a small reduction in social inventories [31]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Affected by the external market, the Shanghai zinc price may oscillate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the LME inventory change [31]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33]. - Options: Wait and see [33] 3.6 Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai lead 2511 increased by 0.09% to 17,090 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index's positions decreased by 1,713 lots to 93,600 lots [32]. - Spot: The SMM1 lead average price remained unchanged, and the trading was average [35]. - **Related Information** - As of September 25, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory decreased by 2.13 million tons compared to September 18 [36]. - Some large - scale recycled lead smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia have no plans to resume production in the short term [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The increase in lead prices has repaired the losses of recycled lead smelters, and some enterprises plan to resume production. The downstream may stock up before the National Day [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The lead price may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [38]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38]. - Options: Wait and see [38] 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 increased by 1,310 to 122,990 yuan/ton, and the index's positions increased by 13,909 lots [40]. - Spot: The premiums of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel changed [40]. - **Related Information** - The Chicago Fed President warned against continuous interest rate cuts [41]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [41]. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has business cooperation with solid - state battery customers and has shipped nearly 50 tons of solid - state battery materials [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - The Indonesian copper mine accident and the suspension of some nickel mines in Indonesia have boosted nickel prices, but the impact on supply is limited. The net import of refined nickel in August decreased, and LME inventory is expected to increase [42]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Oscillate strongly [43]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [44]. - Options: Wait and see [45] 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2511 contract increased by 25 to 12,930 yuan/ton, and the index's positions decreased by 7,520 lots [47]. - Spot: The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel prices are within a certain range [47]. - **Related Information** - On September 25, the national mainstream stainless steel social inventory decreased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly with the digestion of 400 - series resources [48]. - The US import tariff has a serious impact on the stainless steel market [48]. - **Logic Analysis** - The stainless steel production in September has increased significantly, but the demand has not shown seasonal peak characteristics. The slow reduction in inventory and cost support lead to an oscillatory trend [50]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [51]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [52] 3.9 Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,140 yuan/ton or 0.79%, and the positions increased by 2,908 lots to 53,950 lots [54]. - Spot: The spot tin ingot price increased, but the trading was poor, and the downstream demand was weak [54]. - **Related Information** - By 2035, the global 6G user penetration rate will be 22.3% [55]. - The Indonesian government suspended the mining activities of 190 mining enterprises, including about 14 tin - mining enterprises [55]. - **Logic Analysis** - The strong US dollar index restricts price increases. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [56]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation [59]. - Options: Wait and see [60] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated strongly, closing at 9,055 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [61]. - Spot: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable [62]. - **Related Information** - In August, the export volume of industrial silicon products in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month [63]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production and market sentiment of polysilicon in October have a greater impact on prices [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate with long positions [65]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [65]. - Arbitrage: None [65] 3.11 Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The polysilicon futures main contract oscillated, closing at 51,365 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [66]. - Spot: The polysilicon spot price remained stable, and different types of polysilicon have different price ranges [66]. - **Related Information** - On September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope's first - phase polysilicon production line started annual maintenance, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [67]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the 11 - contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt cancellation. The demand in October is expected to weaken, but production will also decrease, and a small inventory increase is expected [69]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Trade with low - long band operations [70]. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts [70]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [70] 3.12 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2511 contract increased by 680 to 74,040 yuan/ton, the index's positions decreased by 1,551 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 560 to 40,309 tons [71]. - Spot: The SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased [71]. - **Important Information** - The US government is seeking to acquire up to 10% of the equity of American Lithium Corp [72]. - The US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products [72]. - **Logic Analysis** - On the supply side, the lack of processing profit and limited increase in lithium ore imports in September may affect production. On the demand side, although orders are full, the increase in the customer - supplied ratio may reduce downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Lithium prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [75]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [75]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The deepening of the discount of zinc spot to futures reflects the market's pricing of loose near - term supply, with the futures - to - spot structure favoring "futures weaker than spot". After the macro - sentiment fades, fundamentals dominate pricing, and short - term upside is limited by high inventories. It may mainly maintain range - bound trading [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On September 19, 2025, the main Shanghai zinc contract (ZN2511) showed a narrow - range oscillating downward trend. It fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after the opening and declined under pressure in the afternoon, finally closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [2]. - **Variety Prices**: There were 12 contracts for Shanghai zinc futures on that day. The total position of the variety was 236,875 lots, an increase of 7,057 lots compared to the previous trading day. Among them, the position of the active contract zn2511 increased by 13,863 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: According to Wind data, the basis on that day was - 55 yuan/ton, and the contango widened significantly compared to the previous day's basis of - 25 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Associated Data Tracking and Interpretation**: - **Macro - aspect**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the previous macro - positive expectations were gradually digested. Long - position funds took profits, and market sentiment returned to rationality [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the number of maintenance at domestic smelters increased (enterprises such as Guangxi Yusheng and Hulunbuir Chihong affected a total production capacity of 500,000 tons). However, the annual resumption scale has reached 4.208 million tons (total resumption plan of 5.418 million tons), and supply pressure still exists [8]. - **Demand - side**: The "Golden September and Silver October" expectations were weak. Many galvanizing plants reduced or stopped production. Downstream buyers mainly used point - price procurement. The trading among traders was light before noon, and overall consumption improved slowly [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market shows a neutral - weak strength analysis, with a continuous inventory accumulation trend [2][3] - Domestic zinc supply is expected to increase. Although there is a slight improvement in consumption, it is relatively limited. The inventory accumulation trend may continue, and prices lack upward momentum. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [5] - The contradiction between domestic and foreign markets is prominent, with an increasingly obvious pattern of stronger foreign and weaker domestic zinc prices. There is an opportunity for the export window to open in the fourth quarter, and it is advisable to hold short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions cautiously [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,045 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.17%. The night - session closing price was 21,905 yuan, down 0.64%. The LmeS - Zinc 3 last week closed at 2,898.5 dollars, down 1.95% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 77,398 lots, a decrease of 26,205 lots from the previous week. The open interest was 61,844 lots, a decrease of 35,853 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 9,867 lots, a decrease of 4,640 lots, and the open interest was 217,061 lots, an increase of 12,255 lots [6] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE Zinc warrant inventory increased by 6,626 tons to 52,531 tons; total SHFE Zinc inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons; social inventory increased by 4,300 tons to 158,500 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased [8] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - to - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits are stable at a medium - to - high historical level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [10][11] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a relatively low historical level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has declined, refined zinc operation rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operation rates have increased but are still at a low level [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined slightly. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] - **Spread**: SHFE Zinc shows a C structure [20] - **Inventory**: SHFE Zinc inventory continues to accumulate, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME zinc inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a medium - to - low level in the same period. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased slightly [25][31][34] - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period [35] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level, import ore processing fees have continued to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have remained flat. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant, at a high level in the same period [38][39] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Smelter finished product inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [46][48] - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Related data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operation rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste - steel daily consumption of steel mills are presented [51][52][53] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [57] - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The monthly downstream operation rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period [60] - **Terminal Demand**: The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - Data on European natural gas futures prices, EU carbon - quota contract prices, European electricity prices, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters are presented [74][75][77]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that China's zinc production in August 2025 reached 651,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [1] Production Insights - In August, domestic smelters increased production, with regular maintenance occurring in regions such as Hunan and Gansu. In contrast, areas like Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia focused on resuming operations after maintenance. Additionally, new production capacity in regions like Jiangxi and Inner Mongolia continued to be released, leading to a month-on-month increase in zinc production [1] - In September, SMM reported that maintenance at smelters was primarily concentrated in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Yunnan. Some recycled zinc enterprises experienced a decline in production due to rising raw material prices and tight supply. However, production increased in regions such as Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei, resulting in an overall production adjustment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Under the influence of macro factors, zinc prices may show a strong trend. Considering the long - term oversupply of zinc, investors can lightly short at high prices; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly in September. Although there is an expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, current terminal orders are lackluster, and domestic social inventories are continuously increasing. In contrast, LME inventories are decreasing, and the LME 0 - 3 has turned into a Back structure and is gradually expanding, which still supports LME zinc prices. Affected by overseas macro factors and LME zinc prices, the center of short - term Shanghai zinc prices may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Trading**: Zinc prices may be strong under macro influence. Due to long - term oversupply, short positions can be lightly established at high prices [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Market Data No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only some data item names such as "Spot Premium", "Absolute Price and Monthly Spread", "Shanghai Zinc Trading Volume and Open Interest", etc. Chapter 3: Fundamental Data - **Zinc Ore Supply** - **Production**: From January to June 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 6158300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 407300 tons or 7.08%. Overseas production was 4188300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 339300 tons or 8.81%, and Chinese production was 1970000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 68000 tons or 3.58%. In August 2025, SMM zinc concentrate production was 344800 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. It is expected to be 314500 metal tons in September, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% [31]. - **Import**: In July 2025, imported zinc concentrate was 501400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 51.97% (171500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative imported zinc concentrate was 3035400 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The top three import source countries in July were Australia, Peru, and Russia [40]. - **Total Domestic Supply**: In July 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc concentrate was about 572400 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%. From January to July, the cumulative total supply was 3453600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.76% [43]. - **Processing Fees**: In September, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate reached 3950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2350 yuan/ton compared to December 2024. On September 12, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrate was 3850 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.5 US dollars/dry ton to 98.75 US dollars/dry ton [47]. - **Refined Zinc Supply** - **Global**: In June 2025, global refined zinc production was 1156500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In May, global refined zinc demand was 1183700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. There was a shortage of 27200 tons. From January to June 2025, global refined zinc production was 6665600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 213600 tons or 3.11%; consumption was 6597600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17300 tons or 0.26%. There was a cumulative surplus of 68000 tons [53]. - **Domestic**: In August 2025, the domestic refined zinc enterprise operating rate was 96.34%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. SMM China's refined zinc production in August was 626200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23400 tons or 3.88%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.77%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 4469000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in September will be 609800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.64 tons or 2.61%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.14% [56]. - **Import**: In July 2025, the import of refined zinc was 17900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18100 tons or 50.35%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 209900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. The top three import countries in July were Kazakhstan, Australia, and India [58]. - **Consumption** - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream zinc开工率 increased significantly this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of enterprises restricted by environmental protection, but terminal orders have not improved significantly. With the approaching of the traditional consumption peak season, the start - up of downstream enterprises and new orders need to be monitored [6]. - **Inventory** - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 154200 tons, an increase of 5200 tons compared to September 4 and an increase of 2100 tons compared to September 8 [6]. - **LME**: On September 11, LME zinc inventory was 50500 tons, a decrease of 2550 tons compared to September 5 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line, an enlarged trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - positions cut. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong zone, while the trend indicator is falling, with both long and short forces increasing and starting to stalemate. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is a volatile consolidation [2][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish signal [2] - The basis is - 35 with the spot price at 22270, indicating a neutral situation [2] - On September 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 100 tons to 50525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 980 tons to 45905 tons, showing a neutral situation [2] - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average which is downward, indicating a neutral situation [2] - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish signal [2] Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market - On September 12, in the zinc futures market, different delivery months had various price changes. For example, the contract 2510 had a previous settlement of 22225, an opening price of 22250, a high of 22360, a low of 22180, and a closing price of 22305, with a price increase of 80 [3] Domestic Main Spot Market - On September 12, in the domestic main spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16860 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoding was 22270 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4038 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4447 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22780 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27450 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20600 yuan/ton with no change; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linquwaicun was 7857 yuan/ton with no change [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 1 to September 11, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased from 133300 tons to 144000 tons. Compared with September 4, it increased by 5500 tons, and compared with September 8, it increased by 4200 tons [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On September 12, in the zinc warrant report, different regions and warehouses had different warrant quantities and changes. For example, in Shanghai, the total warrant quantity was 50 tons with no change; in Guangdong, the total warrant quantity increased by 226 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrant quantity increased by 754 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 12, the LME zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 100 tons to 50425 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 34.61% [7] National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 12, in the national main cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi all increased by 40 yuan/ton [8] National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 12, in the national market, the price of 0 zinc ingot from different smelters such as Hunan Xiuzhou Zhihai, Sanbianshisishidishiba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all increased by 50 yuan/ton [12] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [14] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 12, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For 50% - grade zinc concentrate, the fees in different regions such as HER THE, Hushidao, and Hechi were in the range of 3550 - 4200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 - 105 dollars/thousand tons [16] Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2510 on September 12, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures; in terms of long positions, the top three were Dongzheng Futures, Jianxin Futures, and CITIC Futures; in terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption side of zinc has slightly improved, and the operating rate has rebounded, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The inventory accumulation rhythm continues, and the galvanizing operating rate has slightly increased [3]. - Domestic zinc supply has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, smelters and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant. However, there will be some maintenance in September, leading to a month - on - month contraction in supply. The consumption side has slightly improved, but terminal demand is relatively weak. In the short term, zinc prices may fluctuate within a narrow range, and in the medium to long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. For internal and external strategies, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,305, with a weekly increase of 0.68%, and the night - session closing price was 22,300, with a decrease of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2,956, with a weekly increase of 3.45%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 103,603, a decrease of 2,073 from the previous week, and the position was 97,697, a decrease of 13,613 from the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 last Friday was 14,507, an increase of 3,814 from the previous week, and the position was 204,806, an increase of 5,836 from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 5,133 to 45,905, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 7,617 to 94,649. Social inventory increased by 5,300 to 154,200. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,525 to 50,525, and the bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have increased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industrial chain, and smelting profits are at a medium - high level in history. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a medium historical level. Smelting profits are stable and at a medium - high historical level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Operating Rate**: The zinc concentrate operating rate has declined and is at a medium level in the same period in history. The refined zinc operating rate has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing operating rate has decreased, the die - casting zinc operating rate has increased, and the zinc oxide operating rate has increased, all at relatively low historical levels [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][21]. - **Spread**: SHFE zinc shows a C structure [23]. - **Inventory**: Inventory accumulation continues, and the position - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has slightly decreased in the short term and is at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [31][37][40]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The domestic position is at a medium level in the same period in history [41]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium historical level. Imported ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees remain flat. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [44][45]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has increased and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished product inventories have increased and are at a high level in the same period in history. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a medium historical level [52][54]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: Some data on recycled zinc raw materials such as the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills, the average price of galvanized pipe slag, and the waste steel daily consumption of steel mills are provided, but no overall summary is given [57][58][59]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [63]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history [66][67]. - **Terminal Demand**: Real estate is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [79]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are provided, such as the European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in some European countries, but no overall summary is given [81][82][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

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