Report Overview - Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure to fluctuate [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5] - Lithium Carbonate: There are limited fundamental changes; attention should be paid to market sentiment [2][10] - Industrial Silicon: The strategy is to short at high prices [2][14] - Polysilicon: Monitor when long-short spread trading funds exit [2][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 115,650 yuan, down 3,060 yuan from T - 5. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,335 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 5 [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for Russian nickel imports [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 99,300 yuan, up 12,720 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose, and a lithium concentrate auction was held [11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2601 closing price was 9,390 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5. The PS2601 closing price was 54,625 yuan/ton, up 1,165 yuan from T - 5 [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: A Turkish - German joint venture plans to build a solar cell and silicon wafer factory [14][16] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On November 17, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with trading volume and open interest decreasing, and LME nickel prices falling 1.45%. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Stainless steel: On November 17, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,915 lots, a decrease of 15,806 lots, and the open interest of the active contract was 107,341 lots, a decrease of 4,908 lots [2]. - LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price, electronic - disk closing price, and on - floor closing price decreased, with trading volume decreasing by 6,785 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai nickel inventory was 35,027 tons, an increase of 799 tons. LME nickel registered warrants decreased by 243,738 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5,604 tons [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and import inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in November decreased, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and electrolytic nickel import losses widened [11]. - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [11]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Stainless - steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of the active contract was 137,113 lots, an increase of 17,461 lots, and the open interest was 172,728 lots, an increase of 4,992 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai stainless - steel inventory decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventory was 623,200 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons [13]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and 300 - series production was basically flat [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [13]. Cost - High - grade pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices decreased [13]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price fails to break through the previous low support effectively, take profit and wait and see [13]. Industry News - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the second batch of projects to be promoted by the National Major Projects Office, including the Sisson nickel project, the Matavanie Mountain project, and the Crawford project. The Crawford project has the world's second - largest nickel reserves and resources, with a total investment of 3.5 billion Canadian dollars and is expected to produce 3.5 billion pounds of nickel, 52.9 million pounds of copper, etc. over a 41 - year mining period [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - level**: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - **Industry - level**: - **Nickel Ore**: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - **Refined Nickel**: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The continuous government shutdown affects liquidity; silver shows an oscillating rebound [2][5]. - Copper: Concerns about the US economy cause prices to decline [2][9]. - Zinc: Experiences wide - range oscillations [2][12]. - Lead: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18]. - Aluminum: Has support at the lower level; alumina's oversupply pattern remains unchanged; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Nickel: Smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses, while ore - end uncertainties provide support; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][23]. - Lithium carbonate: Weakly oscillates due to复产 expectations and off - season expectations [2][26]. - Industrial silicon: With continuous de - stocking of warehouse receipts, it has strong bottom support; polysilicon: Attention should be paid to this week's information [2][29]. - Iron ore: Repeats at a high level [2][32]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weakly oscillate due to sector sentiment disturbances [2][37]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Experience wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [2][41]. - Coke and coking coal: Repeat at a high level [2][44]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][46]. - p - Xylene: Aromatic blending oil supports valuation, with a high - level oscillating market; PTA: With fair demand and still existing supply pressure, it has a high - level oscillating market; MEG: Has relatively large supply pressure and a weakening trend [2][50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Gold prices decline, with沪金2512 closing at 915.58 yuan with a daily decline of 0.76%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing; silver shows an oscillating rebound, with沪银2512 closing at 11238 yuan with a daily decline of 1.90%, and成交 increasing while持仓 slightly increasing [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Wall Street warns of inflation risks, and the US government shutdown may break records [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: Copper prices fall, with沪铜主力合约 closing at 85740 yuan with a daily decline of 1.79%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US government shutdown and the fate of Trump's tariffs are uncertain; a new copper smelter in Chile gets environmental approval, and an Indonesian company gets a copper concentrate export quota [9][11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: Zinc prices oscillate widely, with沪锌主力 closing at 22670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%, and成交 increasing while持仓 decreasing [12]. - **News**: The Dutch government's interference in semiconductor enterprises and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [13][15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lead prices oscillate, with沪铅主力 closing at 17415 yuan with a daily decline of 0.03%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [16]. - **News**: The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of Trump's tariffs [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: Tin prices decline, with沪锡主力 closing at 283730 yuan with a daily decline of 0.71%, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including inflation warnings and government - related news [18][19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: Aluminum prices have support at the lower level, with沪铝主力 closing at 21465 yuan with a decline; alumina prices decline, and cast aluminum alloy prices also decline [21]. - **Data**: Various data such as futures market, spot market, and inventory data are provided [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: Nickel prices decline, with沪镍主力 closing at 119700 yuan with a decline; stainless - steel prices oscillate narrowly at a low level, with stainless - steel主力 closing at 12545 yuan with a decline [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian mining company issues and possible US tariffs on China [23][25]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Trading Volume**: Lithium carbonate prices weakly oscillate, with 2511合约 closing at 77160 yuan with a decline, and成交 and持仓 decreasing [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM lithium carbonate price index decline and Samsung SDI's supply agreement with Tesla [26][27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Trading Volume**: Industrial silicon prices decline, with Si2601 closing at 8885 yuan with a decline; polysilicon prices decline, with PS2601 closing at 53715 yuan with a decline [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**:纤纳光电's release of a large - size perovskite photovoltaic commercial component [29][31]. Iron Ore - **Price and Trading Volume**: Iron ore prices repeat at a high level, with the futures closing at 775.5 yuan with a decline, and持仓 increasing [32]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [32][33]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Volume**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices weakly oscillate, with RB2601 closing at 3044 yuan with a decline and HC2601 closing at 3265 yuan with a decline [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Steel production data, government policies on commercial real estate, and national development planning related to the steel industry [37][40]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Trading Volume**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices oscillate widely, with硅铁2601 closing at 5510 yuan with a decline and锰硅2601 closing at 5754 yuan with a decline [41]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Exchange policy adjustments, regional price quotes, and power price changes [41][43]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Volume**: Coke and coking coal prices repeat at a high level, with JM2601 closing at 1253 yuan with a decline and J2601 closing at 1729 yuan with a decline [44]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [44][45]. Logs - **Price and Trading Volume**: Log prices oscillate repeatedly, with 2511合约 closing at 740.5 yuan with minor fluctuations, and成交 and持仓 showing significant changes [46][47]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Sino - US leaders' meeting [47][49]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market Conditions**: p - Xylene has a high - level oscillating market supported by aromatic blending oil; PTA has a high - level oscillating market with fair demand and supply pressure; MEG has a weakening trend due to large supply pressure [2][50].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns is in a game, and it is difficult to break the short - term narrow - range situation. The fundamental supply of refined nickel is increasing while demand is weakening, which restricts the upward flexibility. The key support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. There is support at the bottom, and long - term volatility may increase [1]. - For stainless steel, the downward space is limited, and there is no effective upward driving force. It is recommended to focus on a conservative range - trading strategy, wait for low - level buying opportunities, and avoid chasing high prices. Demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, and supply elasticity may limit the upward space [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Fundamentals Shanghai Nickel - The domestic and overseas visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation stage. The market generally expects the slowdown of invisible restocking. The substitution ratio of nickel - iron for nickel plates in the nickel - alloy sector has increased, and there is an expectation of increased production of pure nickel and low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term, which restricts the upward flexibility of Shanghai Nickel [1]. - The core support for the bulls is the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of Indonesia's nickel ore supply governance policy. Although the actual impact is controllable, short - term inspection results may increase market concerns and strengthen the bottom - support logic of nickel ore [1]. Stainless Steel - Demand is jointly suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, resulting in a weak consumption peak season. However, the over - drafting effect of early export rush has been basically digested, showing marginal low - level repair [2]. - The supply - side elasticity is relatively large, which may limit the upward space of stainless steel. The production schedule in October increased by 3% month - on - month to 3.45 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The 300 - series is about 1.77 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.2%/3.5% [2]. - The overall inventory of factories and social warehouses has declined from the high level. Although the year - on - year inventory accumulation in the middle and upstream has basically converged, the absolute inventory is still at a relatively high historical level, and downstream procurement is still cautious, lacking an effective upward driving force [2]. 2. Inventory Tracking - Refined Nickel: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 191 tons to 47,696 tons. Among them, the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 232 tons to 26,810 tons, the spot inventory increased by 243 tons to 16,816 tons (nickel plates increased by 243 tons, and nickel beans remained unchanged), and the bonded - area inventory increased by 180 tons to 4,070 tons. LME inventory increased by 324 tons to 250,854 tons [5]. - New Energy: On October 24th, the inventory days of the upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, - 1, and +1 month - on - month to 4, 8, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on October 24th changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.9 days, and the ternary material inventory on October 23rd remained flat month - on - month at 7.1 days [5]. - Nickel Ore - Nickel Iron - Stainless Steel: On October 15th, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,062 tons, with a stable and slightly increasing month - on - month trend and a year - on - year increase of 41%. In September, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a month - on - year/month - on - month increase/decrease of 4%/ - 1%. On October 23rd, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 1,027,402 tons, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel decreased by 0.89% week - on - week to 649,326 tons [5]. 3. Market News - On September 12th, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel due to violations of forestry license regulations, which is expected to affect the nickel - ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22nd, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. Once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025, the sanctions will be automatically cancelled [7]. - On September 30th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15th this year. According to the transition clause, if the 2026 RKAB has been applied for through the online system but not approved by the end of this year, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31st, 2026 [7]. - On October 10th, US President Trump claimed on social media that the US might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [8].

Core Insights - Western Mines Group is conducting a feasibility study and metallurgical testing on its Mulga Tank project, which is claimed to be Australia's largest nickel deposit with over 5 million tons of metal reserves [2] - The company aims to achieve high recovery rates and become a low-cost producer of sulfide nickel, with expectations that the Mulga Tank deposit could become a strategic asset within three to five years, potentially rivaling Canada Nickel's Crawford deposit [2] - The nickel reserves at Mulga Tank are approximately 5.3 million tons, with 1.6 million tons classified as indicated resources and 3.5-3.6 million tons as inferred resources [2] - The company has invested $10 million in the project and has recently completed another round of financing, ensuring sufficient funding for the next 6-12 months [2] Nickel Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about nickel prices, stating that a price of $15,000 per ton is a solid bottom, especially as mining costs in Indonesia are rising [3] - Indonesia accounts for 63% of global refined nickel production, and the rising costs there may increase opportunities for Western Australia, which is considered a "world-class nickel province" [3] - Market participants during LME week expressed optimism about nickel's future, as Indonesia needs higher nickel prices to address fiscal shortfalls and achieve budget balance [4] Strategic Positioning - Western Mines Group aims to position itself in the lower half of the nickel production cost curve, with lower CO2 emissions expected from its sulfide mining operations compared to the common laterite deposits in Indonesia [4] - The company is following the trend of Western countries shifting towards low-grade nickel deposits, with Canada Nickel's Crawford deposit leading this change [5] - The company plans to present the economic viability of the Mulga Tank project in 2026, showcasing it as a "superior ore body" [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].