Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated May 20, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The non - ferrous metals research team includes researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - With the macro - atmosphere easing and basic - face news being temporarily empty, nickel prices continue to fluctuate narrowly. On the 19th, Shanghai nickel oscillated slightly weakly, closing at 123,850, down 0.67%. The overall spot premium remained stable. Fundamentally, Indonesian nickel ore prices are still strong, while Philippine ore prices declined slightly due to increased shipments and weakened demand but are overall prone to rise and hard to fall. London inventories increased again to 202,000 tons, and the inventory - building trend continued, weakening price support. Weak demand led to a slight decline in nickel sulfate prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 19th, Shanghai nickel oscillated slightly weakly, closing at 123,850, down 0.67%, with the index's total open interest increasing by 5,663 to 159,001 lots. The spot premium remained stable, with Jinchuan's premium at 2,100 yuan/ton and Russian nickel's premium at 200 yuan/ton. Indonesian nickel ore prices are strong, and Philippine ore prices declined slightly. London inventories increased to 202,000 tons, and the demand for nickel sulfate was weak, causing its price to fall. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [8] 5.2 Industry News - **Indonesian domestic trade ore benchmark price**: In the second half of May, HMA was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton. SMM predicted that the HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores in the second half of May would increase compared to the first half. The mainstream premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical domestic trade ore in May was $26 - 28/wet ton, up about $2/wet ton from April, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore decreased slightly within the month [11][12] - **Talon Metals**: The company found a high - grade nickel sample in Minnesota, which is part of a $65 - million exploration plan. The proposed underground mine project faces less opposition but still needs an environmental review. The company is conducting a feasibility study and starting the approval process, planning to transport the mined ore to North Dakota for processing [12] - **Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI)**: In April 2025, it first exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia. This year's target is to complete 91 shipments totaling 5 million WMT, with an expected shipment structure of 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ores. It is expected to achieve double - digit revenue growth in 2025. The 2025 capital expenditure budget is 711.8 million pesos for various projects [12] - **Ivanhoe Mining**: On May 7, 2025, its subsidiary Ivanplats achieved a major milestone by completing the first high - grade ore blasting of the Flatreef ore body. Ore will be stored on the surface for the first feeding of the concentrator in the fourth quarter [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the China-US economic and trade agreement exceeded market expectations, with both sides significantly lowering tariff thresholds, leading to a revision of macro expectations. The US inflation pressure further eased, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September [3]. - Although the Indonesian Nickel Association has repeatedly lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore, the current shortage situation continues, and the ore price is still rising. The cost pressure of ferronickel is prominent, and some ferronickel plants in Indonesia have stopped quoting for bulk goods. The nickel sulfate market remains sluggish, with no willingness for downstream inventory replenishment, continuing active destocking. Cathode plants may reduce the production plan for May, and there are no bright spots in the new energy sector. Stainless steel inventory has significantly decreased, and the production of electrolytic nickel is at a high level, with a stable fundamentals [3]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of macro disturbances, and the fundamentals may be marginally revised, with nickel prices fluctuating strongly. There are no important economic data to be released this week, and the tariff risk is gradually cooling down, with no expectation of macro disturbances. With the entry into force of the China-US tariff agreement, the downstream household appliance industry may have plans to rush exports, which may drive a marginal recovery in stainless steel consumption. The significant contraction of steel mills' production in May may drive an accelerated reduction in stainless steel inventory. The new energy sector continues to grow weakly, with no obvious inflection point expected. Overall, the marginal revision of the fundamentals may boost nickel prices [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel closed at 124,060 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, down 2,070 yuan/ton from May 12; LME nickel closed at $15,648/ton, up $13/ton; LME inventory was 195,222 tons, down 2,448 tons; SHFE inventory was 23,501 tons, up 279 tons; the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the premium of Russian nickel was 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the average price of high-nickel pig iron was 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; stainless steel inventory was 952,000 tons, up 800 tons [4] 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at $48.5/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $48.6/wet ton to $49.3/wet ton. The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia continued, with domestic traders' quotes remaining firm and the FOB price further rising. The price of Philippine ore stopped rising, and the current shipping volume remained at a low level [5] Ferronickel - The price of high-nickel pig iron (10%-12%) dropped from 942.5 yuan/nickel point to 941.5 yuan/nickel point. The expected production of nickel pig iron in China in May was about 26,260 metal tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.15%; the total import of domestic ferronickel in March was about 1.0133 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time; the expected production of ferronickel in Indonesia in April was 143,300 nickel tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.19%/1.19%, and the ferronickel production was still in the climbing stage. The expected production of 300-series stainless steel in China in May was about 1.78 million tons, an increase of 4 tons compared with the same period last year; as of April 30, the domestic stainless steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5,900 tons. Overall, the high price of nickel ore and the continuous weakening of ferronickel prices have highlighted the cost pressure on ferronickel plants. Some Indonesian ferronickel plants have stopped quoting for bulk goods and only maintain long-term agreements. With the implementation of the China-US economic and trade agreement, some domestic small household appliance enterprises have rushed to export, which may drive a correction in stainless steel demand. The significant contraction of domestic stainless steel production in May may lead to a decline in inventory from a high level [6] Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,115 yuan/ton to 27,995 yuan/ton; the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,750 yuan/ton. The expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content in May was about 26,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 20.51%/0.39%. The production of ternary materials in May increased again month-on-month, with a total of about 63,745 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 1.36%/30.95%. Overall, there is no expected increase in the demand for nickel sulfate, the terminal new energy consumption is weakly stable, and some cathode material plants plan to reduce production, but they are still in the channel of month-on-month expansion. In the short term, it may continue on a stable growth path, but there are no high expectations [7] Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade agreement has been implemented, and both sides have significantly lowered tariff barriers. However, Trump's policy style is changeable, and the tax reduction window is only open for 90 days, so there are still many uncertain factors in the future of trade relations. The US inflation data has weakened, reaching a new low, and the labor market remains resilient. The market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September. However, Powell said that the risk of "supply shock" still needs to be vigilant, and the tariff pressure needs further observation. In terms of data, the US core CPI in April was 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the CPI was 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.4%; the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous period [7][8] - On the supply side, the domestic production capacity in May was stable, and the production schedule of smelters declined. According to the SMM caliber, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease from April; the sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the expected operating rate in May was 65.34%, a decrease of about 1.76 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic export scale of electrolytic nickel was about 145,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 93.53%. As of May 16, the export profit of nickel in China under the SMM caliber was $221.76/ton. Overall, although the production in May declined, it still remained at a high level. The export window was still open, and there was still room to absorb the surplus resources. With the promotion of terminal rush exports, the demand for stainless steel may be pushed up again, thereby supporting the supply of electrolytic nickel [8] - In terms of consumption, from May 1 to 11, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month-on-month increase of 29%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 51.3%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 3.618 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. At the beginning of May, the consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles still showed resilience, and the new car replacement policies across the country continued to increase. Haikou issued provincial subsidy incentives, with a maximum single-vehicle subsidy of 5,000 yuan. On the other end of the fast-charging track, the battery-swapping track is also progressing simultaneously. The Beijing Market Supervision and Administration Bureau mentioned in a recently released document that the solicitation of opinions on the "Operating Management Specification for Electric Vehicle Battery-Swapping Stations" has been completed. It requires that the battery-swapping time for electric passenger vehicles should be less than 4 minutes, and the battery-swapping time for electric commercial vehicles should be less than 5 minutes. It also establishes rules and regulations for the management of potential safety hazards and encourages an internal reporting and reward mechanism for hazards [9] - In terms of inventory, the current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 23,501 tons, a month-on-month increase of 279 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 195,222 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,448 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 218,723 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,169 tons [9] 3. Industry News - On May 11, 2025, the 90,000-ton nickel-cobalt project in Sulawesi, Indonesia, held a start-up ceremony and the successful installation of the first autoclave. The construction and installation projects of the main body and supporting ancillary facilities of the project, including construction engineering, installation engineering, and supporting ancillary facilities, single-unit commissioning, and cooperation with the owner for no-load and load commissioning, started on January 1, 2025, and are expected to be completed on April 30, 2026. Currently, there are 30 sub-items in the third section of the mining area and 23 sub-items in the mining area section [11] - Overseas resource exploration is accelerating, and many companies are successively deploying. Tembo Nickel Limited plans to start the construction of the Kabanga nickel project in the Kagera region this October, marking an important step in the development of the mining industry in Tanzania [11] - Legacy Minerals has applied for an exploration license for the Nico Young nickel-cobalt project in New South Wales. The project has a resource volume of about 1 million tons of nickel and 100,000 tons of cobalt. The project was previously held by Jervois Global, and now it has no acquisition cost, no debt, or royalty, and benefits from more than A$25 million in pre-development work [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0-3 nickel premium and discount, domestic and international nickel ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [13][15]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Price Movement: With the further easing of Sino-US tariff trade tensions, the macro environment improved again. The Shanghai nickel futures opened lower and closed higher at 125,230 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,293 to 164,836 lots. The spot premium remained generally stable, with the Jinchuan premium at 2,150 yuan/ton and the Russian nickel premium at 200 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Analysis: Nickel ore prices remained strong due to Indonesia's policy of raising royalties. The premium of domestic pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased by $2/wet ton month-on-month to $26 - $28/wet ton in April, and the ore price was prone to rise and difficult to fall. The pure nickel inventory continued to decline, with the London inventory dropping to 198,432 tons, and the marginal pressure of inventory accumulation weakened. The supply of intermediate products remained tight due to the production cuts of high - grade nickel matte and MHP by leading enterprises in Indonesia, which would affect the pure nickel output in the future. At the same time, the price of nickel sulfate was expected to maintain a moderate recovery trend due to the enhanced cost support [8]. - Investment Outlook: Fundamentally, the pattern was long - term bearish and short - term bullish. The long - term supply of primary nickel was in surplus, but the support at the mine end was strong at the bottom. The surplus pressure weakened under the short - term inventory reduction and the tight supply of intermediate products. The short - term macro environment improved, but there were still uncertainties. It was recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish mindset and seize the opportunity to go long at low levels [8]. Group 3: Industry News Indonesia's Domestic Ore Benchmark Price - HMA: In the second half of May, the HMA was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton [11]. - HPM: SMM predicted that the HPM prices of Indonesian domestic nickel ore (MC35%) in the second half of May would increase compared with the first half. For example, the HPM price of Ni1.2% grade nickel ore was $15.63/wet ton, up $0.37/wet ton; the Ni1.6% grade was $27.25/wet ton, up $0.65/wet ton; the Ni1.7% grade was $30.66/wet ton, up $0.73/wet ton; the Ni1.8% grade was $34.27/wet ton, up $0.81/wet ton; the Ni1.9% grade was $38.08/wet ton, up $0.9/wet ton; and the Ni2.0% grade was $42.08/wet ton, up $1/wet ton [11][12]. - Premium: The mainstream premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical domestic ore in May was $26 - $28/wet ton, about $2/wet ton higher than that in April, while the price of hydrometallurgical ore decreased slightly within the month [12]. Talon Metals' Discovery - High - Grade Nickel Sample: Talon Metals discovered the highest - grade nickel sample to date, with a nickel content of 12.65%, along with copper, gold, and platinum - group metals, in a location nearly half a mile underground near Tamarack, Minnesota. This discovery was part of an exploration plan that has drilled more than 290 holes and cost $65 million since 2020 [12]. - Project Progress: The company was conducting a feasibility study and starting the relevant approval process, planning to transport the mined ore to North Dakota for processing. The proposed underground mine project faced less opposition than other controversial mining projects in the state but still required a detailed environmental review [12]. Philippine Nickel Miner's Export - GFNI's Export: Philippine nickel miner Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI) exported 56,625 wet metric tons (WMT) of low - grade nickel ore (1.25% nickel content and less than 20% iron content) to Indonesia for the first time on April 30, 2025, marking an important step in its market expansion strategy [12]. - Business Goals: Although China remained its largest market, the demand from Indonesia had increased significantly in recent years. PGMC aimed to complete 91 shipments, totaling 5 million WMT, in 2025, with an expected shipment structure of 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ore. GFNI was expected to achieve double - digit revenue growth in 2025 due to the doubling of Palawan's production capacity (from 1.5 million to 3 million WMT), the improvement of production efficiency in Surigao, and the improvement of Bataan port operations. In 2024, GFNI achieved revenues of 7.611 billion pesos and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 743.9 million pesos. The company's capital expenditure budget for 2025 was 711.8 million pesos, which would be used for mine development, resource expansion, exploration in several provinces, and investment in high - value - added processing projects such as ferronickel and battery - grade nickel [12]. Ivanhoe's Milestone - Project Breakthrough: On May 7, 2025, Ivanplats, a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mining, achieved an important breakthrough. Miners at the 850 - meter level completed the first high - grade ore blasting of the Flatreef ore body. The project had completed a total of 5.5 kilometers of tunnel construction at three levels (750 meters, 850 meters, and 950 meters) since the start of the No. 1 shaft excavation in 2015, and the shafts had reached a depth of 996 meters by 2021. It was expected that the tunnels at the 750 - meter and 950 - meter levels would also enter the Flatreef ore body in the coming weeks [13]. - Ore Storage: The ore produced currently would be stored on the surface in preparation for the first feeding of the first - stage concentrator in the fourth quarter of this year. The ore body contained various metal elements, including platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, gold, and copper [13].

2025年05月09日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存小幅去化，绝对值偏高制约反弹 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势状态，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单注销，市场情绪进一步发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）据 3 月 18 日钢联资讯，经过 1-2 月的减产，目前印尼 GNI 镍铁项目产线已逐步恢复，产能利用率 在 3 月内从三成增至五成，预计该工厂 3 月内产量增加约 0.2 万金属吨/月。4 月该工厂将继续提高产能 利用率，计划 4 月底实现正常生产状态。 2）印尼政府近期对非税国家收入提出相关调整建议，镍矿、镍铁、镍生铁和镍锍资源税率分别由 10%、 2%、5%和 2%提高至浮动区间 14%-19%、5%-7%、 ...

Group 1 - The nickel price experienced significant fluctuations in early 2023, initially rising to over 136,000 yuan/ton due to macroeconomic factors and Indonesian policy changes, before dropping to a low of 115,000 yuan/ton in April amid rising global market risk aversion [1] - The Indonesian government implemented a new PNBP policy on April 26, adjusting tax rates for nickel mining, which is expected to impact production costs for nickel miners and subsequently affect downstream prices [2] - Despite the recent price drop, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to adverse weather conditions, providing a bottom support for nickel prices, which are currently stable between 120,000 and 130,000 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 2 - The refined nickel supply in April reached 36,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%, indicating a high supply level historically, while demand from the stainless steel sector remains weak due to slow recovery in real estate transactions [6] - The market for ternary batteries showed a significant increase in production, with a total of 56.6 GWh in March, but the market share for ternary batteries is declining due to the competitive advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries [6] - Social inventory of refined nickel in China was 43,700 tons as of May 2, showing a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month but a 24% increase year-on-year, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation [6][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia's PNBP policy is set to be implemented on the 26th, but its impact on cost increase is expected to be limited. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian nickel ore showed mixed trends last week, while the premium remained stable [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the nickel - iron in the raw material segment weakened slightly, but the ferro - chrome remained strong, providing effective cost support. Production cuts were observed on the supply side, and inventory decreased significantly last week due to pre - May Day stocking. In May, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with cost providing a bottom - line and demand acting as a constraint [4]. - In the new energy sector, the supply of MHP was tighter than expected, and there may be pressure on the demand side of nickel sulfate. In May, with the recovery of raw material supply and the weakening of stocking demand, prices may lack support [4]. - For primary nickel, the domestic social inventory continued to increase last week, indicating growing oversupply pressure. In May, the nickel ore and MHP segments are relatively strong in the short term, and over - bearish views are not advisable. However, in the long run, prices in the nickel ore, nickel - iron, and new energy industrial chains are expected to decline. If the inventory of primary nickel in China continues to increase, it will put more pressure on nickel prices [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly, Shanghai nickel fell 2.6%, and LME nickel fell 2.1%. The prices in the industrial chain recovered after a significant decline affected by the macro - environment. Weekly, nickel ore and nickel sulfate prices rose slightly, while nickel - iron prices fell [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - LME inventory decreased by 120 tons to 202,470 tons last week; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 42 tons to 24,800 tons; social inventory increased by 701 tons to 44,661 tons; and bonded - area inventory remained at 5,800 tons [5][12]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% decreased by $0.4 per wet ton to $24 per wet ton, while that of 1.6% increased by $1.5 per ton to $52.5 per ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25 per wet ton, and the premium of low - grade Philippine nickel ore remained stable [4][5][18]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - Futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot premium decreased slightly [5][19]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The center of the nickel - iron transaction price in the market moved downward [5][24]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - Production in Indonesia was affected, resulting in a relatively tight short - term supply [5][27]. 3.3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Raw material prices were relatively strong, and theoretical profits turned into losses [5][33]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 Ternary Precursor - Weekly inventory decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons [4][5]. 3.4.2 Power Cells - Weekly cell production increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh, with lithium - iron cells increasing by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh and ternary cells increasing by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [4][5][50]. 3.4.3 Lithium - ion Batteries and New - energy Vehicles - From April 1st to 20th, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a 20% increase compared to the same period last April, a 11% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a 33% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 530,000 units, a 23% increase compared to the same period last April, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a 39% increase year - on - year [4][5][53]. 3.5 Stainless - steel Market 3.5.1 Price - Most stainless - steel spot prices fell last month, and the spot premium increased by 50 yuan per ton to 525 yuan per ton [65][66]. 3.5.2 Inventory - Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 11,979 tons to 168,000 tons month - on - month; the total social inventory of 89 stainless - steel warehouses in the national mainstream market decreased by 8,481 tons to 1,078,000 tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series decreasing by 21,476 tons to 701,470 tons [65][70]. 3.5.3 Supply - According to Steel Union statistics, two 300 - series steel mills reduced production to varying degrees this month, expected to affect April's output by about 40,000 tons [65]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit - The finished - product prices were lackluster, and raw - material prices showed mixed trends [65]. 3.5.5 Consumption - According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in May 2024 was 37.75 million units, a 15.2% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, and the industry continued to grow at a high speed [65][90][94]. 3.5.6 Supply - demand Balance - Production cuts reduced the pressure of inventory accumulation [65][99].