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国家统计局发布重磅数据!
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 03:27
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point [4] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with strong performance in transportation and tourism-related industries [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions [4] Group 3: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectations index rose to 52.6%, showing increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The business activity expectations index for the service sector increased to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service industry enterprises [4]
国家统计局发布重磅数据
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 03:03
Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]
刚刚发布:49.3%
中国基金报· 2025-07-31 02:42
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2][21][22] - The production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, while the new orders index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [6][22] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [5][23][24] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [11][25] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, while the construction sector's index fell to 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points due to adverse weather conditions [14][25] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing was 55.8%, indicating optimism among most enterprises regarding market development [17][25] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 50.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [20][26] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive index's performance [26]
最新PMI数据发布
国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示,7月份,制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数 分别为50.1%和50.2%,比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点,均持续高于临界点,我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份,受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响,PMI降至49.3%,制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查 中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源:国家统计局 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张 数据显示,7月份,非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,仍高于临界点。 图片来源:国家统计局 赵庆河表示,服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份,服务业商务活动指数为50%,比上月略降0.1个百分点。从行业看,在暑期假日效应带动下,与居民 出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间,业务总量较快增长。从市场预期看,7 月份,业务活动预期指数为56.6%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,表明多数服务业企业对市场预期较为乐观。 建筑业商务活动 ...
国家统计局:7月制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 01:50
7月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%,比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点,均持续高于临界点。 7月31日,国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此,国家 统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 7月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%,比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点,均持续高于临界点,我国经济总体产出保 持扩张。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 7月份,受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响,PMI降至49.3%,制造 业景气水平较上月回落。 (四)新动能持续增长。从重点行业看,装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%,均持续 高于临界点,高端装备制造业保持扩张;消费品行业PMI为49.5%,比上月下降0.9个百分点;高耗能行 业PMI为48.0%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,景气度有所改善。 (五)市场预期回升。生产经营活动预期指数 ...
国家统计局:7月份制造业采购经理指数有所回落 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-07-31 01:46
2025年7月31日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此, 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 7月份,制造业采购经理指数为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点;非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产 出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%,比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点,均持续高于临界点,我国经济总体产出保 持扩张。 一、制造业采购经理指数有所回落 7月份,受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响,PMI降至49.3%,制造 业景气水平较上月回落。 (四)新动能持续增长。从重点行业看,装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%,均持续 高于临界点,高端装备制造业保持扩张;消费品行业PMI为49.5%,比上月下降0.9个百分点;高耗能行 业PMI为48.0%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,景气度有所改善。 (五)市场预期回升。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%,比上月上升0.6个百分点,制造业企业对近期市 场发展信心有所增强。从行业看,汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备、电气机械器材等行业生产经营活动预 期指数均位于55.0%以上较高景 ...
国家统计局:7月受制造业进入传统生产淡季等因素影响,制造业景气水平较上月回落
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-07-31 01:39
Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions [2][3] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [4] - The price index showed an upward trend, with the main raw materials purchasing price index rising to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [3][4] - New momentum in the manufacturing sector is evident, with the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.3% and high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, both above the critical point [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point [5] - The service sector's business activity index was stable at 50.0%, with significant growth in transportation and tourism-related industries, while real estate and residential services lagged [5][6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, with a corresponding decrease in market expectations [6] Composite PMI - The Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 50.5% and 50.1%, respectively, both indicating continued expansion [7]
国家统计局:装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6% 均持续高于临界点
news flash· 2025-07-31 01:37
国家统计局数据显示,7月份,受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影 响,PMI降至49.3%,制造业景气水平较上月回落。从重点行业看,装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分 别为50.3%和50.6%,均持续高于临界点,高端装备制造业保持扩张;消费品行业PMI为49.5%,比上月 下降0.9个百分点;高耗能行业PMI为48.0%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,景气度有所改善。 ...
“反内卷” :市场可能误解了什么?
2025-07-22 14:36
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current economic transition period is characterized by a slowdown in industrial enterprise profit growth, similar to the supply-side reform in 2016, but this "anti-involution" primarily targets excess production in areas with good demand rather than directly stimulating demand to avoid intensifying competition [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - External demand industries are experiencing historically low asset turnover rates, indicating significant supply issues and competitive pressure despite better performance compared to internal demand industries [1][6]. - Unlike 2015, where poor profitability led to reduced manufacturing investment, current conditions show that despite low profits, manufacturing investment has surged as companies proactively increase supply to address competition [1][7]. - Low capacity utilization is concentrated in downstream sectors, contrasting with the upstream raw materials overcapacity seen in 2016, with private enterprises facing greater challenges compared to state-owned enterprises [1][9]. - High energy-consuming industries are seeing a slowdown in electricity consumption growth despite strong industrial production, attributed to energy-saving equipment updates, with future impacts of eliminating outdated capacity expected to diminish [1][12][13]. - Upstream price increases are squeezing downstream profitability, with rising costs in the mid and downstream sectors outpacing raw material price increases, indicating excessive investment leading to additional rigid costs [1][15]. Misconceptions about Anti-Involution - There are three main misconceptions about anti-involution: it is not synonymous with overcapacity, it does not imply a comprehensive contraction of upstream supply, and it involves more hidden policy tools than just self-discipline and market-based measures [3]. Comparison with 2016 Supply-Side Reform - While both anti-involution and the 2016 supply-side reform occur during economic transitions with weakened industrial profits, they differ significantly in their demand issues: the former involves proactive supply increases in good demand areas, while the latter dealt with passive overcapacity due to declining investment demand [4]. Policy Measures and Their Impacts - The implementation of a new equipment replacement policy is expected to boost the Producer Price Index (PPI) by approximately 0.5 percentage points and enhance industrial enterprise profits by about 1 percentage point [2][17]. - The management of accounts receivable is crucial for addressing overdue payments to small enterprises, with a recent government directive aiming to clear over 7 trillion yuan in overdue payments [18][19]. Future Adjustments in Supply - The coal and pig farming industries may face supply adjustments due to high production levels and declining electricity demand, leading to potential supply control policies [14]. Focus Areas for Anti-Involution Policies - Current anti-involution policies are primarily focused on downstream sectors rather than upstream, with expectations that the supply contraction in the upstream sector will not be significant in the near term [20].
宏观| “解雇”鲍威尔?
2025-07-21 00:32
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current external demand sector is experiencing intense competition, leading companies to increase supply and reduce prices to capture market share, resulting in fixed asset turnover rates dropping to historical lows, indicating potential oversupply in strong demand areas compared to internal demand sectors which remain at historical median levels [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The recent "anti-involution" policy is not a comprehensive contraction of upstream supply but focuses on downstream industries such as automotive and food delivery, contrasting significantly with the 2016 supply-side reforms [1][2] - To address "sneaky" new production capacity in manufacturing, measures such as self-discipline talks, industry mergers and acquisitions, raising technical standards, and strengthening regulation to eliminate outdated equipment can be implemented [1][6] - The policy to eliminate old equipment can significantly alleviate involution in the short term without major impacts on employment, potentially increasing the Producer Price Index (PPI) by one percentage point and boosting industrial enterprise profit growth by two percentage points [1][7] - Current demand-side policies should avoid stimulating demand in oversupplied areas and instead guide demand in non-oversupplied sectors, such as services, to achieve a rebalancing of demand structure [1][8][9] Additional Important Points - High-energy-consuming industries have undergone significant capacity upgrades and equipment updates, with capacity growth near zero but fixed asset investment growth at 20%-30%, indicating improved production efficiency and reduced energy consumption [1][4] - The external demand sector shows more severe competition, with fixed asset turnover rates declining to historical lows despite good revenue performance, while internal demand sectors remain closer to historical median turnover rates [1][5] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a divergence in transactions, with first-hand housing sales improving in first-tier cities but declining in second and third-tier cities, while second-hand housing sales show a contrasting trend [1][10][12] - The recent Japanese Senate election results may significantly impact fiscal policy, with the ruling party focusing on fiscal sustainability amid global discussions on debt sustainability [1][13] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the complexities of current market dynamics, particularly the differences between external and internal demand sectors, the implications of recent policy changes, and the ongoing adjustments within high-energy industries. The insights provided a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities present in the current economic landscape.