南方财经 21世纪经济报道特约撰稿王应贵娄世艳 2025年的美国股市如同一部跌宕起伏的金融大片。这一年，美国政府交接带来的政策不确定性、所谓 的"对等关税"形成的政策冲击、人工智能投资热潮、中美经贸会谈、美国联邦政府停摆、美联储三次降 息、就业市场降温以及股票估值忧虑等因素交织，导致市场出现大幅波动。 尽管面临诸多挑战，但美国三大股票指数最终表现良好。继2023年涨24.23%和2024年涨23.31%之后， 2025年标准普尔500指数上涨16.39%；以蓝筹股为主的道琼斯30种工业股票平均指数涨12.97%，以科技 股为主的纳斯达克指数涨20.36%。 在其他市场，2025年12月31日的收盘价如下：十年期美国国债收益率收于4.179%；2026年2月黄金期货 收于4324.20美元/盎司；得克萨斯西部轻质油收于57.45美元/桶；美元指数收于97.98点；比特币现货收 于87878美元/枚。复盘2025年的市场影响因素，是判断2026年走势的至关重要的一步。这些深层次因素 在新的一年里仍将深刻影响市场格局。 2025年美股：行业分化相当明显 美联储三次降低联邦基金利率，中长期利率却居高不下，迫使美国财政 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：603608 证券简称：天创时尚 公告编号：临2026-001 债券代码：113589 债券简称：天创转债 理财的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 基本情况 ■ ● 风险提示 公司及子公司使用部分自有资金购买安全性高、流动性好、低风险的理财产品，总体风险可控，但委托 理财事项受市场波动、宏观经济及金融政策等变化的影响较大，投资收益具有不确定性，敬请广大投资 者注意投资风险。 天创时尚股份有限公司 一、委托理财基本情况 关于使用部分自有资金进行委托 （一）对公司的影响 经天创时尚股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年12月26日召开的第五届董事会第十九次会议审议 通过了《关于2026年度使用部分自有资金进行委托理财的议案》，同意公司及子公司使用单日最高额度 不超过人民币45,000万元（含本数）的自有资金购买流动性好、安全性高、风险较低型理财产品，在上 述额度内可滚动使用，具体事项由公司财务部门负责组织实施，具体情况详见 ...

Core Insights - The successful launch of the first inter-institutional REITs project in Tianjin marks a significant step in financial service innovation for the Hexi District [1][3] - The project involved the Tianjin Rail Transit Group and was facilitated by proactive engagement from local authorities, demonstrating a commitment to improving the business environment [2][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The project involved the issuance of asset-backed securities (ABS) for the International Shipping Building, a prime asset in Hexi District with a total area of 60,300 square meters [1] - The Tianjin Rail Transit Group's subsidiary faced challenges in navigating the new financial product issuance, prompting local authorities to provide tailored support [1][2] Group 2: Implementation Process - The Hexi District government actively engaged with the company and financial institutions to address various challenges, ensuring a smooth project progression [2] - The registration of the project SPV company was expedited through optimized administrative processes, significantly reducing approval times [2] Group 3: Impact and Future Directions - The project's success serves as a replicable model for revitalizing state-owned assets and enhancing asset quality in Tianjin [3] - Hexi District plans to continue exploring new financial avenues and improving service mechanisms to bolster regional economic development [3]

Core Insights - The GFCI 38 report highlights the rise of ten cities in mainland China, showcasing a collective advancement in global financial rankings, particularly in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Chengdu-Chongqing regions [1] Group 1: Rankings and Scores - Shanghai ranks 1st in mainland China and 8th globally with a score of 751, while Shenzhen follows closely at 2nd in mainland China and 9th globally with a score of 750, both cities showing an increase of 7 points from the previous period [2] - Beijing ranks 3rd in mainland China and 22nd globally with a score of 737, while Guangzhou, Qingdao, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Dalian, Nanjing, and Wuhan follow in respective positions, with notable movements in rankings and scores [2] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Rankings - Shenzhen's rapid ascent is attributed to its "innovation and finance" synergy, with flexible cross-border financial regulations in the Qianhai area facilitating over 100 billion yuan in capital flow last year [3] - Chengdu's rise to 38th globally is supported by its role as a "Western gateway," with over half of the financial settlements for the China-Europe Railway Express occurring there, alongside a strong output of financial talent and green finance initiatives [5] - Nanjing's ranking improvement to 9th in mainland China and 74th globally is linked to its blockchain technology applications in supply chain finance and significant issuance of green bonds for ecological restoration projects [7] Group 3: Overall Trends - The overall trend indicates that financial cities in mainland China are not merely relying on policy support but are leveraging geographical advantages, industrial strengths, and service capabilities to enhance their global standings [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold and silver prices declining sharply after a record-breaking performance in 2025, raising concerns about market fragility and future trends [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 4, 2026, gold prices fell from a historical high of $4549.69 per ounce at the end of 2025 to $4332.85 per ounce, a weekly decline of over 4.8% [1]. - Silver prices dropped from $83.943 per ounce to $72.77 per ounce, marking a decline of 13.3% [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Data indicates a shift in market sentiment, with speculative long positions in COMEX gold futures remaining at 12.7% of total holdings, but the increase in fund long positions (9241 contracts) was less than the increase in commercial short positions (10348 contracts), leading to a contraction in net long positions [2]. - In the silver market, an increase in arbitrage positions (2118 contracts) suggests that funds are managing volatility through risk hedging rather than outright short selling [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.1% on January 2, 2026, which, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data (256,000 jobs added), raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, further diminishing gold's appeal [2]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a baseline forecast predicting that central bank gold purchases and potential Fed rate cuts could drive gold prices to $4900 per ounce [2]. - Morgan Stanley is more optimistic, projecting an average price of $5055 per ounce in Q4 2026 and a long-term target of $6000 per ounce by 2028 [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is expected to experience greater volatility due to its dual industrial and financial characteristics, with long-term support from the global green energy transition and tight supply, although short-term technical selling pressure may test the $65 per ounce support level [3]. - Analysts suggest potential future prices of $5000 for gold and $100 for silver, contingent on breaking current resistance levels of $4520 for gold and $78.5 for silver [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by companies when their core business is under pressure, leading them to explore financial instruments as a potential solution, questioning whether these tools serve as a quick fix or a risky venture [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tools and Company Strategy - Companies often shift focus to financial markets when their core business struggles, viewing financial instruments as a means to generate quick profits [3][4]. - This shift can lead to a loss of strategic focus and a reliance on financial engineering rather than core business development, which can marginalize the main business [3][4]. - The article warns that financial gains are uncertain and can lead to a cycle of increased risk-taking, ultimately jeopardizing the company's stability [3][4]. Group 2: Principles of Engaging with Financial Markets - Companies should approach financial tools with respect, using them as instruments to support core business operations rather than as speculative ventures [4][5]. - It is essential for companies to have the necessary expertise and risk management systems in place before engaging in financial markets, as blind confidence can lead to significant losses [4][5]. - The success of any financial operation should be measured by its contribution to the long-term health and stability of the core business [5]. Group 3: Cautionary Examples - The case of a struggling ST company attempting to engage in futures trading highlights the risks of seeking financial salvation in volatile markets [6]. - The article emphasizes that true success in the capital market belongs to those who focus on their core business while cautiously managing financial tools [6].

Group 1: Manufacturing Trends - The manufacturing PMI in China has stabilized around 49.7, while the US PMI hovers around 48.0, indicating a lack of significant cyclical peaks or troughs, reflecting a "weak resilience" state[9] - China's real estate sector is undergoing adjustments, with targeted fiscal policies supporting demand, leading to a balanced demand environment[9] - Global supply chain diversification is enhancing export resilience, preventing typical inventory destocking in manufacturing[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expected GDP growth for January is projected at 4.66% (actual) and 3.86% (nominal), compared to December's 4.18% and 3.79%[4] - The PPI is anticipated to continue rising due to low base effects, while CPI is expected to decline due to high base effects[4] - The M1 growth rate may slow down due to high base effects and reduced fiscal net spending[4] Group 3: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index saw single-day gains of 2.76%, 4.00%, and 4.38% respectively on the first trading day of the year[4] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares increased to 21,000 million yuan, up 8.30% week-on-week[19] - The gold ETF in China experienced a net outflow of 3.205 billion yuan, while the SPDR global gold ETF saw a net outflow of 6 tons[36]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中金外汇研究） 中金外汇研究 图表1：汇率预测表 (上段为中枢、下段为区间) 资料来源：中金公司研究部 1月重要事件展望 美国经济数据的变化 12月公布的美国非农就业和通胀数据显示美国经济转弱。这令市场开始怀疑美联储的观望态度是否会更早结束。考虑到11月的数据 仍然受到了政府关门的扰动，因此1月初的就业和通胀数据可能更容易改变美联储对于经济的看法和市场的货币政策的定价。考虑到12月份的经济数据可 能因为政府重开而环比改善。因此，1月份经济数据对美元的下行压力可能会有所减轻。 1月美联储会议以及新美联储主席的提名 新年第一次美联储政策会议将于1月末举行，由于在12月的会议中美联储改变了预期管理措辞，因此如果经济数 据不出现太大的下行压力，我们认为美联储大概率会选择维持政策利率不变，以此放慢降息节奏以观察经济数据的变化。我们可观察美联储对于美国经济 和未来利率路径的暗示，如果有迹象显示美联储对于美国经济的自信程度有所下降，那么市场或开启对3月降息的定价，美元的下行压力或进一步加大。 除了月底的会议，新美联储主席的人选或对美元汇率有重要的影响。12月上半，当白宫经济顾问委员会主席凯文哈塞特的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating finance and technology to support sustainable forestry development, using Chongqing as a model for national implementation [2][3]. Group 1: Background and Strategic Importance - Chongqing is recognized as a crucial ecological barrier in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and has been designated as a pilot area for collective forest rights reform and green finance innovation [2]. - The central government has tasked Chongqing with exploring solutions to common challenges in national forestry reform, highlighting its strategic role in ecological product value realization [2]. Group 2: Innovations and Practices - The "Finance + Technology" column aims to analyze innovative practices in Chongqing, such as using technology for forest rights assessment and designing green financial products to support carbon sink development [3]. - The goal is to create replicable and scalable models that enhance national attention and support for sustainable forestry through finance and technology [3]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Objectives - The column will feature insights from experts in finance and forestry, focusing on policy interpretation, practical experiences, and problem-solving strategies [4]. - It aims to foster collaboration among the finance, technology, and forestry sectors, enhancing understanding and guiding the provision of effective financial products and sustainable management strategies [4]. Group 4: Support and Industry Integration - The initiative is supported by Manzhai Group, a key national forestry enterprise in Chongqing, which focuses on ecological restoration and integrated development across various industries [4].

格隆汇1月4日｜尽管标普500指数在2025年全年上涨超16%，但市场在年底最后五个交易日下跌0.86%， 为全年收官留下阴影。根据金融服务公司LPL Financial的报告，这可能暗示2026年的股市表现可能不如 人意。LPL的分析指出，回溯至1950年，当标普500指数在每年最后五个交易日出现负报酬时，隔年一 月以及整年的平均回报率都会比较低。当年底行情上涨，标普500指数隔年一月平均上涨1.4%，全年更 有亮眼的10.4%回报。相反地，当指数在这段期间下跌的情况下，一月平均会下跌0.1%，整年回报降至 6.1%。LPL也指出，季节性趋势反映的是历史倾向，而非保证，并未考量企业盈余、货币与财政政策变 动或经济状况等基本面因素。 ...