1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market sentiment weakened, with the 09 contract dropping about 30 points. Although the overall market sentiment had improved earlier, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains in surplus, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to watch for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. - The glass futures market sentiment declined yesterday, while the spot market remained strong. Currently, it is the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. Logs - Yesterday, the log futures market fluctuated slightly stronger. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand due to the off - season for demand and seasonal reduction in supply from New Zealand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton, and the futures price rose by 90 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase. In the short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline due to the increase in warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price increased. There is still room for the futures price to catch up with the spot price. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and there are both positive and negative factors. Attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [4]. Natural Rubber - The natural rubber price rebounded due to macro - sentiment, but the fundamental situation is still weak. It is recommended to short at the price range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to raw material supply and US tariff changes [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price and Spread - Glass: The prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while the price in Central China increased by 30 yuan/ton with a 2.80% increase. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 1.35% and 2.81% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.53% [1]. - Soda Ash: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased by 0.53% and 2.06% respectively. The 05 basis increased by 17.95% [1]. Supply - Soda ash: The operating rate and weekly output remained unchanged. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 2.87%, while soda ash factory inventory and delivery warehouse inventory increased by 2.98% and 4.39% respectively. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99%, construction area decreased by 7.56%, completion area increased by 15.67%, and sales area increased by 12.13% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures: The 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts increased slightly, while the 2507 contract decreased slightly. The basis of the 09, 11, and 01 contracts decreased [2]. - Spot prices: The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, except for a 1.39% decrease in the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port [2]. Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [2]. Inventory - Weekly inventory: The national inventory decreased by 0.31%, with a 1.66% decrease in Shandong and a 1.93% increase in Jiangsu [2]. Demand - Weekly demand: The daily average outbound volume decreased by 12% nationwide, with a 9% decrease in Shandong and a 14% decrease in Jiangsu [2]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of East China oxygen - passed S15530 and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon increased, while the basis of some varieties decreased [3]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of 2508 - 2509, 2509 - 2510, and 2512 - 2601 increased significantly, while the spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national output and operating rate decreased, while the output and operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. In May, the output of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy increased [3]. Inventory Change - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 17.46%, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.34% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The prices of N - type granular silicon decreased slightly, and the basis of N - type and cauliflower - type decreased [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract increased by 1.69%. Some monthly spreads changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The output of silicon wafers and polysilicon decreased. Monthly: The polysilicon output increased, and the import and export volumes changed [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.47%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.67% [4]. Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The prices of some rubber varieties increased slightly, and the basis and non - standard spread changed [5]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.69%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the output in Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, and the domestic tire output decreased slightly. The tire export volume increased [5]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased significantly [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable, with prices holding firm but limited upward support due to a balanced supply-demand situation [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of July 15, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1150-1250 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1240-1340 CNY/ton. In Central China, light soda ash is priced at 1110-1310 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1220-1340 CNY/ton [2]. - The light soda ash price index on July 15 is 1157.14, reflecting a slight increase of 1.43, or 0.12%, from the previous working day. The heavy soda ash price index remains unchanged at 1225.71 [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market experienced a slight decline on July 15, with the main contract opening at 1240 CNY/ton and closing at 1214 CNY/ton, marking a daily drop of 0.65%. The highest price during the day was 1247 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1202 CNY/ton, with total open interest increasing by 52,588 contracts to 1,585,075 [5]. - The supply side shows scattered maintenance and some companies increasing production, maintaining high output levels. However, industry profits are declining, putting pressure on producers. Downstream demand remains weak, with buyers primarily engaging in low-price essential purchases [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable operation in the short term, with weak driving forces and an unchanged supply-demand balance. Future attention should be given to macroeconomic policy changes and inventory fluctuations that may impact the market [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the steel industry is "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6]. - The short - term outlook for iron ore is "sideways - strong", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [2][9][10]. - The short - term outlook for scrap steel is "sideways" [10]. - The short - term outlook for coke is "sideways" [10][12][13]. - The short - term outlook for coking coal is "sideways" [13]. - The short - term outlook for glass is "sideways", and the long - term view is to maintain a "sideways" view [6][14]. - The short - term outlook for soda ash is "sideways", and the long - term outlook is that the price center will decline [6][14][16]. - The short - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is to follow the sector fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term prices face upward pressure [16][17]. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic expectations continue due to topics such as "anti - involution" and coal industry self - discipline. The macro - trend dominates the market during the off - season. With frequent macro - level positives and good fundamentals, short - term prices are expected to run strongly. The industry should focus on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased, in line with expectations. Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and hot metal production decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the port inventory decreased slightly, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - Some previously shut - down mines in major production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The China - Mongolia border port is closed, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Coke producers have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the time. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alloys Manganese - Silicon - The price of manganese ore has remained stable recently, but port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to decline significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to improved profitability. The demand side remains resilient as the output of finished steel products remains at a relatively high level. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The current fundamentals of silicomanganese are stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [16]. Ferrosilicon - The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the profitability in production areas has been continuously restored. The supply side is expected to increase in the future, although the current resumption of production is slow. The demand side remains resilient as steel production remains high. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [6][17]. Glass - Demand is declining during the off - season, and deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Supply is increasing as there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. With the "anti - involution" sentiment rising, the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][14]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. There are rumors of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The demand for light soda ash from downstream is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Although sentiment affects the futures price, the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates confidence in accelerating the quality upgrade of traditional industries and developing strategic emerging industries, enhancing its sustainable development and risk resistance capabilities through its 2025 semi-annual report [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 5.998 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.7155 million yuan [1] - The sales of key products such as soda ash, sodium metal, and resin experienced significant year-on-year growth, with soda ash production and sales reaching 2.1605 million tons and 2.1452 million tons, respectively, representing increases of 38.31% and 38.75% [2] - The company reported a 17.62% year-on-year increase in revenue from caustic soda, driven by rising prices due to demand expansion in downstream sectors [2] Group 2: Product Development and Market Position - The company is solidifying its market position in the sodium metal sector, with a year-on-year sales increase of 29.06% and revenue growth of 10.68% in the fine chemical industry [3] - The company is advancing a 10,000-ton/year sodium metal relocation project to reduce production costs and enhance automation [3] - The company is focusing on high-end special resin production, with a 30,000-ton/year project nearing completion, aimed at increasing product value [2] Group 3: Cost Management and Resource Development - The company maintains a cost advantage in its soda ash business, with average procurement prices for key raw materials decreasing significantly, including a 27.90% drop in raw salt prices [4] - The company is actively developing natural soda resources, having successfully acquired the largest known natural soda mining rights in China, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in the soda ash industry [5][6] Group 4: Sustainability and Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to green and low-carbon development, achieving a 23% share of green electricity in its power operations [7] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased 9.03657 million shares, representing 0.616% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 67.0411 million yuan [8] - The company has distributed cash dividends totaling 180 million yuan to shareholders, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. However, due to increased soda ash production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the supply - demand situation worsened, and soda ash prices declined. The futures price of the main contract dropped nearly 30%, and the spot price fell 19%. Recently, driven by the "anti - involution" policy, the soda ash futures price rebounded about 8.5% from the low, but the spot price remained stable and weak [2][8]. - In the first half of 2025, although the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. It is expected that the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and may rebound in October, with an annual supply increase of about 1.1% [2]. - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. As the "anti - involution" measures in the photovoltaic industry are implemented, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has declined, restricting the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the production of float and photovoltaic glass may continue to decline in the second half of the year, dragging down the demand for heavy soda ash. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to a year - on - year decrease of 8.7% in heavy soda ash demand, while light soda ash demand will increase by 7.3% [3][7]. - In the first half of this year, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of 2025, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [7]. - In the first half of this year, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and the total inventory may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [7]. - The recommended strategy is to sell hedging at high prices [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Recent Soda Ash Price and Profit Situation - In early 2025, soda ash futures and spot prices rebounded slightly with commodities. Then, due to increased production capacity, decreased float and photovoltaic glass production, and lower coal prices, the price of soda ash futures contract 09 dropped from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,147 yuan/ton, a decline of nearly 30%, and the mainstream average price of national heavy soda ash dropped from 1,600 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, a decline of 19% [16]. - Recently, under the "anti - involution" policy, the price of photovoltaic silicon materials increased significantly, and the soda ash futures price rebounded from 1,147 yuan/ton to 1,244 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5%, but the spot price remained stable and weak [16]. - Since 2024, the profit of the soda ash industry has declined significantly. Recently, the profits of the co - production method and the ammonia - soda method have both been in the negative, with losses of - 114 yuan/ton and - 134 yuan/ton respectively [21]. 2. Limited Impact of Summer Maintenance, High - level Soda Ash Supply - In the first half of 2025, although 2.4 million tons of new soda ash production capacity was added, due to poor profitability, some enterprises carried out early maintenance in February and May, resulting in a decline in the start - up rate and production. From January to June, the national soda ash production was 18.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, including a 4.0% year - on - year decrease in heavy soda ash production and a 5% year - on - year increase in light soda ash production [26]. - July is the traditional high - temperature maintenance season for soda ash enterprises. Due to the exothermic reaction of soda ash production, high - temperature, and humid weather, enterprises usually conduct maintenance. It is expected that the scale of summer maintenance this year may be slightly smaller than in previous years, but if prices continue to fall, more enterprises may carry out centralized maintenance [33][37]. - Considering the impact of summer maintenance, the production from July to September will decline slightly but remain above 3.1 million tons on average, and is expected to be around 3.2 million tons in October, increasing the supply surplus. The annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1%, or 400,000 tons [41]. 3. Negative Impact of Photovoltaic Supply - side on Consumption, Soda Ash Demand May Continue to Decline - "Anti - involution" has become a policy and market focus. The "anti - involution" work in key industries such as automobiles, steel, and photovoltaics has made positive progress. For example, domestic top ten photovoltaic glass manufacturers plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [43][45]. - From January to June 2025, the total daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass was 253,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%, and the corresponding consumption of heavy soda ash decreased by 11% year - on - year [47]. - Recently, the glass market has improved slightly, but the photovoltaic industry is still weak. The supply of photovoltaic glass has decreased due to kiln production cuts and cold repairs, the demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the inventory has increased. The price of Wuhu Xinyi photovoltaic glass has dropped to 18.5 yuan/square meter [51]. - In the first half of the year, the demand for light soda ash was relatively strong, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7% in apparent demand from January to June. Different downstream industries have different operating conditions, such as the 80% start - up rate of sodium silicate manufacturers and the 88.6% start - up rate of the monosodium glutamate industry [53]. - For the second half of the year, considering the poor profitability of float and photovoltaic glass enterprises, the number of new and restarted production lines is expected to be limited, and the probability of cold - repair production lines is higher, which may further reduce the demand for heavy soda ash [54]. 4. Decline in Domestic Soda Ash Price, High - level Soda Ash Exports - In the first half of 2025, with the decline in domestic soda ash prices, exports were strong. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 840,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118.5%. It is expected that exports will remain high in the second half of the year, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year, a significant year - on - year increase [63]. 5. Soda Ash Total Inventory Expected to Continue Rising in the Second Half of the Year - In the first half of 2025, the over - capacity problem of soda ash was more obvious, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory of soda ash production enterprises was at a historical high. The latest inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.863 million tons, the inventory of sample glass factories was equivalent to 23.4 days of use, and the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses was 238,000 tons. The total inventory of the three links reached 2.805 million tons, at an absolute high level compared with the same period [66]. - Based on the supply - demand balance analysis, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash will remain loose. After the summer maintenance, the inventory is expected to continue to rise, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year, much higher than in previous years [69]. 6. Summary - Price and profit: Similar to the previous analysis, the price of soda ash futures dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped relatively less. Recently, the futures price rebounded under the "anti - involution" policy, but the spot price remained stable and weak [72]. - Supply: In the first half of the year, new production capacity was added, but early maintenance led to a decline in production. Summer maintenance may have a limited impact, and the annual supply is expected to increase by about 1.1% [72]. - Demand: "Anti - involution" has affected the demand for heavy soda ash. Considering the poor profitability of the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash may continue to decline in the second half of the year. The total demand for soda ash is expected to have a negative growth of 0.6% this year, mainly due to the decline in heavy soda ash demand [73]. - Net export: Exports were strong in the first half of the year and are expected to remain high in the second half, with a net export of 2.11 million tons for the whole year [74]. - Inventory: The over - capacity problem was obvious in the first half of the year, and inventories at all levels increased. The inventory is expected to continue to rise in the second half of the year, and may reach 3.62 million tons by the end of the year [74]. - Strategy: Sell hedging at high prices [9].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.7.7-7.11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货低位震荡抬升，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周上涨3.66%报1217元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周上涨0.84%。 供给方面，前期检修逐步结束，供应稳步提升，暂无新增检修计划，预计下周产量73万 吨，开工率84%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般，按需为主，存货意向不足。目前 浮法消费相对稳定，光伏受"反内卷"政策影响，大幅减产，消费下降；周内，浮法日熔量 15.84万吨，环比增加600吨；光伏日熔量9.20万吨，环比稳定。下周，浮法生产线稳定，光 伏减量幅度在2300吨左右。截止7月11日，全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加 2.98%， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The upstream supply of soda ash is at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1217 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 17 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.14%, the low - end price in Shahe increased by 0.50%, and the main basis decreased by 54.05% compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 113.50 yuan/ton. The production profit was at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 100 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, and other indicators of soda ash over the years, as well as the corresponding supply - demand differences and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the doc 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - 检修带动短期产量偏低但后续将提升，计划内检修较少；国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口窗口未开，国内价格低位出口较好；终端备货充足，需求有回落预期，库存压力难解；市场正反馈情绪回落后维持偏空思路，短期防范风险观望为主 [7][9] 2.2玻璃市场 - 部分前期点火产线等待出品，供应端存政策端利多导向但暂未落地；近周末市场氛围受盘面走强提振，观察梅雨季后市场情绪变化；需求情绪走强库存下行；低位多单持有思路，情绪转弱则灵活离场 [153][155] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量70.89万吨，环比持平，预计后续提升；重质产量40.01万吨，环比增0.43万吨；轻质产量30.88万吨，环比降0.43万吨；进口0.03万吨，环比持平；出口4.1万吨，环比持平；浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；光伏玻璃日熔量91400t/d，环比降600t/d；重碱消费量33.70万吨，环比增0.02万吨；轻碱表需29.57万吨，环比增0.88万吨；纯碱表需65.50万吨，环比降1.13万吨；碱厂库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨；社会库存23.80万吨，环比增1.00万吨；样本终端原料天数23.36天，环比增1.54天；氨碱法成本1281元，环比持平；氨碱法利润 -81元，环比增40元；联碱法成本1142元，环比降8元；联碱法利润8元，环比增48元；华中重碱 - 轻碱价差0元，环比持平；沙河市场价基差 -75元，环比降48元 [7] 3.1.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年各月纯碱当月产量、进口量、表观需求量、出口量数据 [15][17][18][20] 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、纯碱合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [24][25][26][27][29][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][40][41] 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱当期价1207元，环比上周涨23元，环比去年降693元；轻重碱区域价格有不同变化；展示了各区域重质、轻质纯碱价格及价差数据 [44][48][68] 3.1.5供应 - 目前多家企业检修/降负荷，部分企业有计划检修；当期国内纯碱开工率81.32%，环比上周持平，环比去年降6.01%；周产量70.89万吨，环比上周持平，环比去年降1.91%；重质纯碱产量40.01万吨，环比上周增0.43万吨，环比去年降2.47万吨；轻质纯碱产量30.88万吨，环比上周降0.43万吨，环比去年增0.56万吨；重质化率56.44%，环比上周增0.61%，环比去年降1.91%；产销比92.40%，环比上周降1.59%，环比去年降18.59% [74][75] 3.1.6需求 - 展示了浮法、光伏玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、周度需求、周度表观消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格数据 [122][124][126][128][130][131][134][135] 3.1.7库存 - 当期纯碱企业库存186.34万吨，环比增5.39万吨，环比去年增87.98万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存79.13万吨，环比降1.35万吨，环比去年增20.80万吨；重质纯碱企业库存107.21万吨，环比增6.74万吨，环比去年增67.18万吨；库存天数15.45天，环比增0.45天，环比去年增7.19天 [139] 3.1.8仓单数量/有效预报 - Not provided in the doc 3.1.9地产相关数据 - Not provided in the doc 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 当期浮法玻璃日熔量158425t/d，环比增650t/d；周产量110.90万吨，环比增0.45万吨；表观消费量120.81万吨，环比增9.71万吨；厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨；天然气线成本1408元，环比增8元；天然气线利润 -178元，环比降8元；煤制气线成本931元，环比增12元；煤制气线利润214元，环比降6元；石油焦线成本1051元，环比增8元；石油焦线利润19元，环比降8元；华东 - 华中价差160元，环比持平；沙河5mm大板基差 -79元，环比降47元 [153] 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了2020 - 2025年平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、当月产量同比、当月出口量数据 [160][162][163][165] 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了纯碱和玻璃期现货价格对照、玻璃合约基差、跨期价差、玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差数据 [169][170][171][172][174][175][176][178][180][181][183][184][185][186] 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区不同规格价格及环比情况；还展示了各区域浮法玻璃5mm市场价及沙河、湖北部分企业5mm大板含税价数据 [190][192][193][195][196][198][200][202][204][206][208][210][211][213][215][216][217][219][221][223] 3.2.5供应 - 当期浮法玻璃煤制气企业利润108.78元，环比增22.80元；石油焦企业利润 -50.47元，环比增34.29元；天然气企业利润 -183.11元，环比增5.57元 [227] 3.2.6需求 - Not provided separately in the doc 3.2.7库存 - 厂库库存335.51万吨，环比降9.92万吨，预计后续继续下降 [153]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" trend is beneficial for commodity prices in the long term, as it encourages stability and innovation in production rather than destructive price competition [1]. Group 1: Automotive Industry - In the first half of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, achieving a double-digit growth year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in inventory levels and production rhythm among car manufacturers is attributed to the ongoing efforts to address "involution" competition [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded significantly due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with current glass production enterprise inventory at 57.34 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 970,000 heavy boxes week-on-week [2]. Soda ash inventory stands at 1.864 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons week-on-week [2]. - **Steel**: Steel mills are experiencing stable profit margins, with steel inventory continuing to decrease. Despite facing export challenges, the demand remains resilient, and the market is expected to see a strong performance in steel prices [3][22]. - **Stock Indices**: The U.S. stock indices have shown volatility, with a market turnover of 1.74 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 4.768 billion yuan to 1.8605 trillion yuan [3][8]. Group 3: Industry News - The "National Uranium No. 1" demonstration project has successfully produced its first barrel of uranium, marking a significant breakthrough in China's natural uranium production capabilities [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.66%, with the central bank shifting from net absorption to net injection in the open market [9]. The market is currently facing uncertainties due to international trade tensions and inflation concerns [9]. - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors, with OPEC expected to approve significant production increases in September [10]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The U.S. soybean crop's good condition remains stable, with the good rate at 66%, while the domestic supply of soybeans is expected to remain ample, putting pressure on prices [24]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index has shown slight declines, reflecting challenges in increasing freight rates amid fluctuating demand [26].