所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-17 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-17 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 5 月宏观数据公布，社零数据表现亮眼 观点分享： 昨日公布了最新的国内宏观经济数据，5 月社会消费品零售同比增 6.4%，创 2023 年 12 月来最高；5 月规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，新能源汽车、工业机器人产量较快增长； 1-5 月份城镇固定资产投资增长 3.7%。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.6%，制造业投 资增长 8.5%，房地产开发投资下降 10.7%；1-5 月房地产开发投资同比下降 10.7%，5 月 70 城房价：各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线、二线新房房价环比转降。其中最亮眼的当 属社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，远超市场预期的 5%。消费品以旧换新政策持续显效， 限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零售额分 别增长 53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%。汽车类零售同比增长 1.1%，石油及制品类零售下 滑7%。可以看到消费市场正在逐步恢复活力，尤其是在节假日和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a significant increase in coking coal prices due to the impact of rising crude oil prices, driving a slightly stronger trend in ferrous metals including steel. However, it does not change the pattern of loose supply and demand of Chinese steel. In the short term, it will boost market sentiment, but the downward trend remains. It is recommended to take a short - position approach on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly this week, with the reduction mainly in Australia, but Australian shipments remained at a high level overall, and Brazilian shipments increased steadily. The arrival volume decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction of Brazilian ore arrivals. In the future, the average arrival volume will still remain at a relatively high level. The terminal demand for finished products is at risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience in the short term. The 09 contract of iron ore should be considered from a bearish perspective in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand has seen a peak - to - decline trend. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a high level around 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level, and the import situation was complex. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a high level around 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron has begun to rise recently. The cost side is expected to decline overall. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the coal price change should be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. The manganese ore supply is expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the support for silicon manganese is limited. The cost adjustment is difficult to stabilize. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the manganese ore price change should be focused on [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products showed small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit also showed a downward trend. For example, the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2974 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China rebar decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 tons to 858.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons to 1354.6 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials increased by 0.8 tons to 11.0 tons, an increase of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 tons to 868.1 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 761.2 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 49.9 yuan/ton to 56.7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, an increase of 2.3%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.2 tons to 241.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 86.2 tons to 13933.14 tons, an increase of 0.6% [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of coke increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a decrease of 70/75 yuan/ton, and there were still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand showed a peak - to - decline trend. The iron - water output decreased slightly last week [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in various links, and the downstream procurement was generally cautious [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of coking coal increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The domestic coking coal price decline slowed down, and the import situation was complex [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience [5]. - **Inventory**: The coal - mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, and the port inventory also increased [5]. Silicon Iron - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of silicon iron were generally stable, and the export price remained unchanged. The SF - SM main - contract spread decreased by 8.0 to - 292.0 [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron showed a downward trend, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5.9% [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron was weak in both the steel - making and non - steel - making sectors, but the export still had some resilience [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the cost adjustment was difficult to stabilize [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon manganese was difficult to stabilize, and the production profit situation was not optimistic [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory increased [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon manganese was affected by the weakening of iron - water output and the off - season of finished - product demand [6].

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/0 ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5000 | 0 | -100 | 5260 | 主力合约 | 5192 | 26 | 88 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5050 | 0 | -100 | 5350 | 01合约 | 5162 | 22 | 56 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5050 | 0 | -100 | 5380 | 05合约 | 5186 | 10 | 64 | | | 陕西#72 | 5000 | 0 | -100 | 5300 | 09合约 | 5192 | 26 | 88 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | -150 | | 主力月基差 | 68 | -26 | -188 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures market trends. Attention should be paid to the influence of macro - sentiment on commodity prices, and at the micro - level, continue to monitor the price changes of raw materials and the production rhythm of steel mills. Weather may affect the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, so follow the subsequent shipment of manganese ore at South African ports this week [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy was affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, and its price fluctuated along with the black metal sector. Ignoring macro - factors, prices may continue to decline due to the downward movement of raw material prices and weak demand expectations. Domestically, the macro - situation is relatively stable with no signs of new policies. The previous optimistic expectations from China - US trade talks were disrupted by the Middle East situation, affecting commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, demand is peaking, the off - season is coming, and if supply continues to expand, alloy prices may face more pressure [6]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon ferroalloy production this week was 95,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons, with a change rate of - 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 31.35%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some regions like Ningxia and Gansu have resumed production, but the resumption in Inner Mongolia has slowed down due to environmental protection factors [15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude steel output in May was 3.017 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, and the planned output in June is expected to continue to contract. The total output of magnesium metal in May was 67,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in April was 38,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8% [29]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 69,990 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,210 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 15,228, a week - on - week decrease of 348, and the inventory was 76,140 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.2 days, showing a decreasing trend in different regions [39]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy has rebounded slightly, the cost is relatively stable, but the expected cost may move down later [43]. 3.3 Manganese Ferroalloy 3.3.1 Supply - Manganese ferroalloy production this week was 173,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons, with a change rate of 0.9%. The weekly operating rate was 35.3%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from last week. The main production area in Ningxia continued to resume production, while some small furnaces in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were shut down for maintenance [47]. 3.3.2 Raw Materials - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes have continued to decline, and the port manganese ore prices are fluctuating. The global manganese ore departure volume has decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has increased month - on - month, with high port demand [55][59][66]. 3.3.3 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. The weekly output of rebar has decreased by 108,900 tons, weakening the demand support for manganese ferroalloy [72]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 97,951, a week - on - week decrease of 3,061, and the inventory was 489,755 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.15 days, showing different trends in different regions [76][79]. 3.3.5 Profit - The cost support for manganese ferroalloy has weakened, and price competition at the ore end is emerging [83].

仓单 现货 盘面 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5000 | 0 | -130 | 5260 | 主力合约 | 5166 | -18 | -30 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5050 | -50 | -150 | 5350 | 01合约 | 5140 | -22 | 30 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5050 | 0 | -150 | 5380 | 05合约 | 5176 | -4 | 36 | | | 陕西#72 | 5000 | 0 | -150 | 5300 | 09合约 | 5166 | -18 | 64 | | | 陕西#75 | 5600 | 0 | -200 | | 主力月基差 | 94 | 18 | -100 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5280 | 0 | 0 | | 1-5月差 | -36 | -18 | -6 | ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 硅铁：板块情绪共振，偏弱震荡 锰硅：矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2507 | 5276 | -22 | 25,220 | 60,785 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5166 | -18 | 107,142 | 219,450 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5418 | -54 | 7,773 | 24,246 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5426 | -60 | 203,695 | 460,268 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 12, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5000 and 5100 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and -50, and weekly changes of -130 and -100 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy are 1055 and 1095 US dollars respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 are 5430, 5380, 5500, 5450, and 5450 respectively, with weekly changes of 30, 80, 50, 50, and 50 [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production and capacity utilization rates in different regions [4][5]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also shown, including weekly production and enterprise - wide capacity utilization rates [7]. Demand - The demand - related data such as the estimated production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, and the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided [5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are given, including weekly inventory in different regions, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts [6]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including daily warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including electricity prices in different regions, the market price of blue charcoal, and the production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [6]. - The cost - profit - related data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including the price of raw materials such as manganese ore, and the profit in different regions [7][8].

2025 年 6 月 12 日 品 研 究 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | | 硅铁2507 | 5298 | 6 | 61,627 | 69,305 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2509 | 5184 | 10 | 159,669 | 217,041 | | | 锰硅2507 | 5472 | -58 | 44,991 | 27,893 | | | 锰硅2509 | 5486 | -56 | 245,672 | 448,864 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5100 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 货 | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5430 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 ...