（文章来源：第一财经） 中国银河证券认为，2025年7月以来，反内卷板块涉及的大宗商品价格多数上涨，直接驱动板块指数行 情。7月1日-8月15日，沪深300指数上涨6.76%，而钢铁、水泥、玻璃玻纤、工程机械、光伏设备、能源 金属、工业金属等均涨超10%；此外，装修建材、电池也跑赢沪深300指数。在交易拥挤度方面，受反 内卷政策影响，2025年7月中上旬，煤炭、钢铁、水泥、玻璃玻纤、装修建材、建筑装饰、工程机械、 光伏设备、电池等板块成交额占全A指数成交额比例显著提升。但7月下旬以来，上述板块成交额占比 陆续冲高回落。此外，短期内，随着一系列旨在缓解行业内卷的政策密集出台，市场对相关板块的业绩 改善预期迅速升温，大量资金涌入，交投活跃度快速攀升，反内卷板块估值明显提升。中长期来看，反 内卷政策通过提高毛利率、产能利用率促进业绩改善，提升相关板块中长期投资价值。 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongmin Resources is reported at 40.77 yuan, down 0.86 yuan or 2.07% from the previous trading day [1] - The stock reached a high of 42.45 yuan and a low of 40.62 yuan during the trading session, with a volatility of 4.40% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 311,241 hands, with a total transaction amount of 1.282 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Zhongmin Resources specializes in the exploration and development of mineral resources, focusing on non-ferrous metals such as lithium and cesium [1] - The company is registered in Beijing and operates within the energy metals industry [1] Group 3 - On August 20, Zhongmin Resources experienced a rapid decline, with a drop of over 2% within five minutes, reaching a price of 41.55 yuan at 10:03 AM, with a transaction amount of 369 million yuan at that time [1] - The net outflow of main funds for the day was 13.41 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 81.92 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Tibet Mining as of August 20, 2025, is 22.53 yuan, down 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day's closing price, representing a decline of 0.31% [1] - The company operates in the energy metals sector, primarily engaged in the mining and sales of chrome ore and lithium concentrate [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 134 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65.91%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 15.305 million yuan, compared to a profit of 111 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The decline in performance is attributed to a decrease in both product sales and prices [1] - On August 20, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 22.4779 million yuan, accounting for 0.19% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow reached 122 million yuan, representing 1.04% of the circulating market value [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for precious metals due to higher-than-expected U.S. PPI data, with expectations for continued growth in gold prices driven by potential Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with a notable infrastructure project in Tibet expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term growth in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, and recommends specific stocks such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 1.28% decline in Shanghai gold prices during the week, while maintaining a bullish outlook on gold due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showed varied changes, with copper increasing by 0.8% and nickel decreasing by 1.0% [27]. - The report mentions a significant infrastructure project in Tibet with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to enhance demand for industrial metals [5]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide increased, reflecting a growing demand driven by manufacturing recovery expectations [5][29]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices rose, with attention on the growth of energy metal demand [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.62%, with specific segments like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant increases [36]. 3. Key Events of the Week - The report discusses the potential for significant Fed rate cuts as suggested by market strategist David Zervos, following the release of U.S. PPI data that exceeded market expectations [43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved record-high operating performance in the first half of the year, with revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, up 23.78% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company continues to strengthen its overseas layout and enhance its integrated advantages, with significant projects underway in Indonesia and Africa [2][16]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 22.1% in 2025, with net profit growth of 46.0%, reflecting its strong position in the lithium battery materials industry [3][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.459 billion yuan, up 27.04% year-on-year and 16.51% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.618 billion yuan, down 41.45% year-on-year [14]. Product Sales - The company’s cobalt product shipment was approximately 20,800 tons, down 9.89% year-on-year due to tight raw material supply. Nickel product shipments were approximately 139,400 tons, up 83.91% year-on-year, which was a key driver for Q2 performance [12][16]. - The shipment of ternary precursor materials was about 42,100 tons, showing a decline due to the company’s strategy to reduce low-margin product shipments. However, the shipment of ternary cathode materials increased by 17.68% year-on-year [12][16]. Overseas Expansion - The company has initiated the construction of a 120,000-ton nickel metal project in Indonesia in collaboration with Vale and Ford, and is progressing with a 60,000-ton project [2][16]. - In Africa, the Arcadia lithium mine project has increased its resource reserves from 1.5 million tons to 2.45 million tons, with a planned 50,000-ton lithium sulfate project expected to be completed by the end of the year [2][16]. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 74.439 billion yuan, 81.159 billion yuan, and 89.137 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.067 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 8.294 billion yuan [3][19]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 3.57 yuan, 4.12 yuan, and 4.87 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "slow bull" phase, driven by the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for incremental capital inflows, despite concerns about valuation risks in hard technology sectors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, characterized by a dynamic environment where rapid price increases in Q3 could lead to increased volatility in Q4 unless strong signals prompt a significant upward revision of profit expectations [1][7]. - Incremental capital inflows are expected from various sources, including insurance asset management, bank wealth management, household savings, and foreign investments, indicating substantial potential for market growth [5][6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and hard technology sectors are under scrutiny for potential valuation risks, but the focus should be on whether actual industry progress aligns with market expectations [2][12]. - The energy metals sector is highlighted as a significant opportunity, particularly under the "anti-involution" policy, which may stabilize supply-demand dynamics and enhance industry valuations [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment in the Sci-Tech Board and ChiNext is recommended, as both indices represent emerging growth sectors with attractive valuations below historical averages [3][8]. - Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of high-flying stocks and to maintain a disciplined approach by setting reasonable profit targets and stop-loss levels [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on opportunities in light rare earths and lithium battery materials [4][6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 9.61% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking first among 31 primary industries [12]. - The price of lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade, domestic) rose by 15.91% in the last two weeks, indicating strong demand in the market [55]. - The report highlights a significant capital inflow into the rare earth sector, with leading stocks showing strong performance [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.8.04-2025.8.15) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 9.61%, with metal new materials leading at 15.04% and industrial metals at 11.41% [12]. - Other sectors such as small metals, energy metals, and precious metals also saw substantial increases [12]. Precious Metals - As of August 15, COMEX gold closed at $3,381.70 per ounce, down 1.00% over two weeks, while COMEX silver rose by 2.47% to $38.02 per ounce [19][24]. - The report suggests a stable long-term outlook for gold due to global central bank demand and geopolitical uncertainties [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,621.0 per ton, up 0.90% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 10.77% [28]. - The report indicates a positive long-term demand outlook for copper driven by green energy investments [28]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 4.12% to 202,000 CNY per ton, while tin prices showed mixed trends [35]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for tungsten due to supply constraints and increased industrial usage [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index rose by 3.16% to 211.58, with light rare earths leading the price increases [47]. - The report notes a strong market sentiment for light rare earths driven by demand in the magnetic materials sector [48]. Energy Metals - As of August 15, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 263,500 CNY per ton, down 2.04% over two weeks, while sulfuric acid cobalt saw a 2.46% increase [52]. - The report highlights the significant year-to-date increase in cobalt prices, indicating strong market dynamics [52]. Lithium - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid-range power type) rose by 5.05% to 34,300 CNY per ton, reflecting ongoing demand in the battery sector [55]. - The report underscores the robust growth in lithium prices, driven by the electric vehicle market [55].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has strongly broken through a 10-year high, igniting market enthusiasm [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the industrial landscape and creating investment opportunities, particularly in the new energy sector [1] - In the new energy sector, there is significant differentiation among sub-industries, with some facing severe overcapacity and requiring long-term recovery or strong policy intervention [1] Group 2 - The energy metals industry is highlighted as a key area of focus, possessing substantial valuation elasticity potential as a critical raw material in the new energy supply chain [1] - The anti-involution policy is expected to positively impact the future prices of energy metals, potentially stabilizing supply-demand relationships and enhancing industry valuation [1] - Two core beneficiary types of companies are anticipated under the anti-involution policy: - Cycle dividend companies that maintain stable profits and high dividends without significant capital expenditure [2] - Cycle growth companies that benefit from supply control while experiencing sustained demand growth related to emerging industries or globalization [2]

陈果坦言，光伏行业整体面临的挑战更大。尽管反内卷政策有助于改善，但光伏全行业要恢复到对股票 投资者具有足够吸引力的ROE水平，"时间比较长，难度比较大一点"，意味着困境反转的过程可能更为 曲折。 相比之下，陈果对锂电板块的看法更为积极。他分析，整个锂电行业的集中度与格局已相对清晰。在此 基础之上，叠加反内卷政策带来的边际供给控制，将更有效地推动整个行业的ROE中枢改善，尤其利好 龙头公司ROE的进一步提升，整个改善的确定性也更强。 陈果进一步解释了为何基本面的"改善"未必直接转化为理想的股票投资机会。对于期货投资者，企业盈 利（E）从深度亏损到小幅亏损甚至盈亏平衡或微利，代表着亏损收敛，本身就构成交易机会。但对于 股票投资者，如果企业仅从深度亏损改善至微利，但ROE未显著提升至有吸引力的水平，其估值通常也 难以有效提升，对投资者的吸引力有限。 聚焦新能源内部，陈果对光伏与锂电板块的投资机会进行了对比分析。 他指出，虽然从基本面看，光伏和锂电行业都有望迎来困境改善的契机，但两者实现理想投资回，达到 具有吸引力的ROE水平或估值水平的路径和难度存在显著差异。 今日，沪指强势突破10年新高，点燃市场热情。面对"牛市 ...

Market Overview - On August 18, the energy metals sector rose by 0.55% compared to the previous trading day, with Tengyuan Cobalt leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) closed at 62.99, with a gain of 3.89% and a trading volume of 113,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 705 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Sai Rui Diamond (300618) at 38.42, up 2.21% [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) at 45.06, up 1.83% [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) at 44.46, up 1.58% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) at 39.34, up 1.50% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector experienced a net outflow of 525 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 366 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows: - Huayou Cobalt had a net inflow of 41.21 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Tengyuan Diamond saw a net outflow of 22.06 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Ganfeng Lithium had a net inflow of 67.74 million yuan from retail investors [3]