Group 1 - The liquor sector showed strong performance with Penghua Liquor ETF hitting the daily limit, and several food and beverage-themed ETFs rising over 7% [1] - As of January 28, the net inflow for Penghua Liquor ETF was 275 million yuan, while food and beverage ETFs saw a net inflow of 600 million yuan, and consumer-themed ETFs had a net inflow of 3.836 billion yuan [1] - Multiple consumer-themed funds have been reported this year, including GF National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Themed ETF, Caitong Asset Management Consumer Research Mixed Fund, and Huaxia Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Selected Mixed Fund [1] Group 2 - According to fund manager Zhou Han from Huatai PineBridge, the valuation of the consumer sector continues to decline, currently at historical lows, with investors generally holding a cautious or even pessimistic view on the long-term prospects of the consumer industry [1] - A shift in investment logic in the consumer sector is occurring, moving from "betting on total growth" to "selecting structural opportunities," and from "favoring the industry" to "choosing outstanding companies" [1] - Companies with strong brand power, product strength, organizational capability, and a global perspective are establishing long-term competitive advantages even in adverse conditions [1]

寒武纪-U是一家AI芯片公司，专注于云端和边缘计算的人工智能芯片研发。作为国内AI芯片领域 的领先企业，其股价此前曾一举超过贵州茅台成为A股"股王"。早在2024年四季度，寒武纪-U就跻身基 金重仓股第8位，之后除了在2025年三季度掉出前20名外，一直在10名左右徘徊。在AI应用的快速发展 带动下，寒武纪-U在2025年四季度一举升至基金重仓股第5位。 从重仓股排行可以看出，主动权益类公募基金的持仓结构发生了明显变化，AI等科技成长股成 为"重点关注对象"。事实上，科技行业上市公司比重增加不仅体现在公募基金前10大重仓股上，也体现 在整体的持仓变化上。Wind数据显示，公募基金2025年四季度对科技行业上市公司的持仓已经从2024 年一季度的25%上升到40%。与此同时，新能源、消费、金融行业的占比有所下降。这一变化反映了市 场对科技行业特别是AI行业发展的高度关注。 近期披露完毕的2025年公募基金四季报显示，中际旭创、宁德时代、新易盛、紫金矿业、寒武纪- U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密、美的集团、中国平安成为主动基金的前十大重仓股。 在人工智能（AI）产业的投资浪潮下，科技成长风格成为主导。其中，中际 ...

本期主讲人：习近平经济思想研究中心主任、研究员 史育龙 总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济 增长的主动力和稳定锚，意义重大。习近平总书记指出："要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续 深化供给侧结构性改革，有进有退、有保有压，增强供给与需求的适配性、平衡性。""十五五"规划建 议围绕"大力提振消费"，提出了"深入实施提振消费专项行动""扩大优质消费品和服务供给""推动商品 消费扩容升级"等一系列重大举措。中央经济工作会议也把提振消费作为建设强大国内市场的重要内容 作出部署。提振消费，供需适配是关键。 提振消费要在供需适配上下更大功夫 消费受制于收入水平，也受消费环境、政策和心理预期等多方面因素影响，在千方百计提高消费者 收入的同时，还要在供需适配上下更大功夫，使生产供给端提供的产品和服务能够精准匹配消费者的需 求，并能够通过产品和服务创新引领需求、创造需求，实现供给和需求的"双向奔赴"，形成需求牵引供 给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡。 近年来，我国产业能力和水平显著提升，从农产品到工业制成品，几乎在所有领域能够提供充裕的 传统商品。与此同时，在新一轮科技 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is experiencing a volatile trading environment with a focus on dividend and consumption sectors, while the hard technology sector is underperforming [5][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% to 3304.51 [5][8] - The trading volume exceeded 32 trillion yuan, indicating a high trading sentiment, but the market continues to show signs of structural differentiation [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Meta's advertising revenue reached $58.137 billion in Q4 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase, with total revenue for the quarter at $59.893 billion [29][30] - UBI Research forecasts a 64% increase in OLED display shipments in 2025, reaching 3.2 million units, driven by higher acceptance and profitability in the sector [31] - Omdia predicts a decline in AMOLED panel shipments for smartphones in 2026, estimating a drop to 810 million units due to rising memory costs and supply shortages [33] Group 3: Company Updates - Tigermed (300347.SZ) expects 2025 revenue between 6.66 billion and 7.68 billion yuan, with a net profit forecasted to grow by 105% to 204% [37][38] - Chunxue Food (605567.SH) anticipates a staggering 340.90% to 426.63% increase in net profit for 2025, driven by market expansion and cost reduction efforts [39][40] - Qingdao Bank (002948.SZ) reported a 7.97% increase in revenue for 2025, with net profit reaching 5.188 billion yuan, reflecting steady growth in assets and loans [43][44]

投资建议：把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好 景气度，重视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去 化，餐供有望恢复。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，2025Q4食品饮料板块获配比例环比回落，细分来看白 酒、非白酒板块重仓环比下降，其他板块配比均呈环比回升，其中饮料乳品及休闲食品增幅居前。 2025Q4主动偏股类公募基金食品饮料重仓配置比例延续环比下行。从主动偏股类公募基金重仓配置比 例来看，2025Q4食品饮料重仓股配置比例环比-0.14pct至4.04%，位列各行业第九。其他前五获配板块 分别为电子、电力设备、通信、医药生物以及有色金属，对应2025Q4配置比例分别为21.47%（环 比-1.84pct）、9.87%（-0.32pct）、9.83%（+1.78pct）、9.16%（-1.92pct）及7.83%（+2.12pct）。 把握五条主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。1）具备价格弹性标的；2）饮料受益出行良好景气度，重 视低估值高股息；3）零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化 ...

| 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4157.98 | 0.16% | 6.75 | | | 深证成指 | 14300.08 | -0.30% | -42.82 | | | 沪深 300 | 4753.87 | 0.76% | 35.88 | | | 创业板 | 3304.51 | -0.57% | -19.05 | | | 科创 50 | 1507.64 | -3.03% | -47.16 | | | 北证 50 | 1536.00 | -1.69% | -26.45 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股延续窄幅震荡 市场表现： 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 6.57% | 电子 | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism for February, with expectations of a slow bull market continuing, despite a high-level narrow fluctuation in indices [6][3] - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks have shown strong performance in January, particularly in the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors, with signs of stabilization and rebound in the consumer sector, especially in food and beverage [6][3] - The report highlights a significant pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026, driven by underestimations of inventory and capacity reduction, suggesting a potential price recovery due to structural supply shortages [6][3] Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the food and beverage sector, which are expected to continue their rebound [6][3] - It suggests that the market's risk appetite and evaluation are shifting, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks valued between 10 billion to 50 billion being relatively favored [6][3] - The report recommends focusing on stocks with improvement logic or those in significant performance downgrades, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, dairy farming, regional liquor, and mid-to-high-end liquor [6][3] Industry Analysis - The report notes that the pig farming industry is experiencing a structural supply shortage, which is expected to limit the downward price potential for pigs, with a price turning point anticipated in Q2 2026 [6][3] - It highlights that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter is at a historical low, indicating a potential for price recovery as inventory levels are replenished [6][3] - The report identifies specific companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs as favorable investment targets within the pig farming sector [6][3]

总需求不足是当前经济运行面临的突出矛盾。加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需成为拉动经济增长 的主动力和稳定锚，意义重大。习近平总书记指出："要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续深化 供给侧结构性改革，有进有退、有保有压，增强供给与需求的适配性、平衡性。""十五五"规划建议围 绕"大力提振消费"，提出了"深入实施提振消费专项行动""扩大优质消费品和服务供给""推动商品消费 扩容升级"等一系列重大举措。中央经济工作会议也把提振消费作为建设强大国内市场的重要内容作出 部署。提振消费，供需适配是关键。 近年来，我国产业能力和水平显著提升，从农产品到工业制成品，几乎在所有领域能够提供充裕的传统 商品。与此同时，在新一轮科技革命和产业变革的强劲推动下，生产供给端的创新创造能力大幅度提 升，开发出不少与数字化、智能化、绿色化技术和应用场景密切关联的新产品新服务。智能家电、新能 源汽车、家用无人机和智能穿戴产品等大规模走入"寻常百姓家"，为满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要 作出巨大贡献。供给能力越强，消费者的选择就越多，增强供给与需求的适配性就越重要。 供需适配要准确把握当前消费新特征 消费是满足需要的过程，同时又会创造出新 ...

Core Viewpoint - ST Jiajia (002650.SZ) forecasts a net loss of 110 million to 200 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, an improvement from a loss of 243 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be a loss of 120 million to 210 million yuan, compared to a loss of 266 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The company has narrowed its loss margin during the reporting period [1] Operational Strategy - The company continues to focus on its core business, enhance market expansion, and improve governance [1] - Efforts to enhance brand image and explore new marketing models have been implemented [1] - The company has strengthened cost control, resulting in a decrease in traditional outdoor advertising expenditures compared to the previous year [1] Inventory and Receivables Management - The company reported a reduction in the provision for inventory impairment and other receivables compared to the previous year, following the cessation of related business by its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiajia Food (Ningxia) Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 29, 2026, most industries in the convertible bond market corrected, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The convertible bond market's trading sentiment weakened, and the market style favored large - cap value stocks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.70% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.30%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.57%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 1.65%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.80% [2]. - In terms of market style, large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks increased by 0.76%, large - cap value stocks increased by 2.21%, mid - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.02%, mid - cap value stocks increased by 0.50%, small - cap growth stocks decreased by 1.43%, and small - cap value stocks remained unchanged [2]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 81.418 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 325.9418 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.93%. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 6.0222 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond increased by 0.10bp to 1.82% [2]. - The share of Boshi Convertible Bond ETF was 4.311 billion shares, with a net increase of 62.2 million shares; the share of Haifutong Convertible Bond ETF was 891 million shares, with a net decrease of 34.5 million shares [37][40]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds decreased to 142.82 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 208.09 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 123.66 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 134.77 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [3]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan decreased by 0.59 pct to 77.87%. The proportion of the 120 - 130 yuan (inclusive) range increased by 0.58 pct to 16.80%. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 140.54 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [3]. - The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par - value fitting increased to 38.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 pct. The overall weighted par value decreased to 105.83 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [3]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds decreased by 0.95 pct to 19.09%; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds increased by 1.19 pct to 91.95%; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds decreased by 0.77 pct to 29.94% [3]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were food and beverage (+6.57%), media (+3.53%), and real estate (+2.65%); the top three falling industries were electronics (-3.56%), national defense and military industry (-1.79%), and power equipment (-1.78%) [4]. - In the convertible bond market, 21 industries fell. The top three falling industries were steel (-3.94%), electronics (-2.15%), and machinery and equipment (-2.05%); the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+2.06%), communication (+1.27%), and media (+1.15%) [4]. - In terms of closing price, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.66%, manufacturing industries decreased by 1.38%, technology industries decreased by 0.23%, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.17%, and large - finance industries increased by 0.25% [4]. - In terms of conversion premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.7 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.71 pct, technology industries increased by 0.25 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.79 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.16 pct [4]. - In terms of conversion value, large - cycle industries increased by 0.05%, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.02%, technology industries decreased by 0.53%, large - consumption industries increased by 0.06%, and large - finance industries increased by 1.35% [4]. - In terms of pure bond premium rate, large - cycle industries decreased by 1.0 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 2.3 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.47 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.23 pct, and large - finance industries increased by 0.28 pct [5]. V. Industry Rotation - Food and beverage, media, and real estate led the rise. The daily increase rates of food and beverage, media, and real estate were 6.57%, 3.53%, and 2.65% respectively in the A - share market [55]. - The report also provided the weekly, monthly, and year - to - date increase rates of various industries, as well as their valuation quantiles such as PE (TTM), 3 - year and 10 - year quantiles of PE and PB (LF) [55].