Group 1 - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable and not overvalued, with the CSI 300 dynamic P/E ratio around 12.2 times, which is at the 69th percentile historically since 2010, indicating a moderate valuation compared to major global markets [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has reached approximately 100 trillion yuan, with the market cap to GDP ratio being relatively low among major global markets [1] - The total market capitalization of A-shares to M2 is about 33%, which is at the 60th percentile historically [1] - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is 2.69%, which remains attractive compared to the yield of ten-year government bonds, suggesting that equity assets still hold relative appeal [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising in early trading, supported by multiple favorable policies and an acceleration of household savings moving into capital markets [2] - The overall profit growth expectation for A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive in 2025, ending a four-year decline, with significant profit elasticity expected in the technology innovation sector [2] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and a weaker dollar are likely to facilitate foreign capital inflow into A-shares [2] - The market is anticipated to maintain a steady upward trend in the medium term, driven by the transfer of household savings, policy benefits, and a recovery in the profit cycle [2] - The A-share market is expected to experience steady fluctuations in the short term, with a need to closely monitor policy, capital flow, and external market changes [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03 points, up 0.85% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57 points, up 1.73% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2606.20 points, up 0.84% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 519.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a new high for the year [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors showed positive growth, with notable gains in shipbuilding, consumer electronics, glass fiber, small metals, power equipment, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, motors, electronic components, and electronic chemicals - Conversely, the coal, precious metals, and fertilizer sectors experienced declines [1] Market Outlook - Industrial analysts at Industrial Securities suggest that the current market requires a "slow bull" phase, emphasizing the need for a healthy and sustainable market environment - With the market continuing to recover, institutional advantages are becoming more apparent, contributing to a positive feedback loop with the current "slow bull" and "healthy bull" trends [1] - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the overall market trend remains upward, and with policy support, the A-share market is expected to align with economic growth, potentially marking an upward turning point [1]

尼泊尔政府近日重启搁置多年的化肥厂建设计划，以解决国内化肥长期依赖进口的问题。尼总理奥利已 指示相关部门加快项目推进，该项目预计投资超过100亿卢比（约合人民币5.5亿元）。印度国有石油公 司（IOC）已表示愿意作为战略投资者参与该项目。据悉，全球主流的天然气、热电联产和水电解三种 化肥生产工艺在尼泊尔均被研究论证。支持天然气路线的专家强调成本优势，而主张水电工艺者则认为 可消化国内过剩电力。目前尼政府每年提供28亿卢比化肥补贴，进口额却超40亿卢比，本土化生产将直 接惠及农民。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a game between cost support and export restrictions. Lacking a breakthrough driver, it is expected to continue range - bound trading [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental and Views - **Supply - related**: Device overhauls increased, weekly production decreased by 26,000 tons compared to the previous week, and factory inventory decreased to 888,000 tons, slightly alleviating supply pressure [4]. - **Cost - related**: Coal prices stabilized and rose slightly. Coupled with the potential impact of the old - device inspection policy, the cost line of the fixed - bed process supported the price [4]. - **Demand - related**: In August, it is the gap period between the end of top - dressing and autumn fertilizer preparation. Agricultural demand support is limited, and the compound fertilizer operation rate is only 41.5%. Industrial demand is weak [4]. - **Export - related**: The second quota is unclear, and the international price is lower than the domestic price limit (440 - 445 US dollars/ton), hindering actual export orders [4]. Urea Fundamental Data - **Inventory**: There are data on China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, and compound fertilizer inventory [7][8][38]. - **Futures**: Data on the position volume, trading volume, total number of warehouse receipts, and effective warehouse receipt forecasts of the urea futures main contract are presented [10][12][13][15]. - **Price**: There are data on the market prices of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, the price difference between large and small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, and the seasonal price differences of urea 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 [17][18][20][21][23][25][27]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data on the production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural gas, and coal - water slurry gasification processes, as well as the production cost, profit, and production cost in Shandong of compound fertilizer are provided [28][30][31][32][40][46]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: There are data on the number of days of pending orders of urea production enterprises, urea capacity utilization rate, total daily urea production, compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate, and power coal port inventory [33][35][37][38][47]. - **International Price**: Data on the FOB prices of small - sized urea in China and the Middle East are presented [42][43]. - **Power Coal**: Data on the spot price of power coal are provided [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the urea industry is neutral, with various aspects such as supply, demand, policy, etc., also rated as neutral, indicating a balanced outlook in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, summer maintenance is recovering, and production has stabilized, being higher than the historical average. Although the Indian tender price is high, China has not participated. The compound fertilizer operating rate has slightly declined, the progress of autumn fertilizer is slow, and industrial demand is tepid. Overall, short - term domestic supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3]. - The current monthly spread is low, and opportunities for the spread to strengthen can be considered when it is at a low level [3]. - There is no news of further liberalization of exports for now [3]. - Supply has stabilized while demand remains weak. Traders are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, spot trading is weak, and prices are falling, but the situation of low - price orders has improved recently [3]. - Enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Some enterprises have reduced their order - receiving prices under pressure [3]. - International prices remain high, and potential export profits are still at an absolute high. India's tender price exceeds $530 per ton, but China has not directly participated, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policy changes [3]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the operating rate has begun to decline. Attention should be paid to the growth progress of autumn fertilizer demand in September. The price of melamine has rebounded significantly, but demand is still significantly weak, and the sustainability of the price increase remains to be observed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - This week, the supply - demand situation of urea remained relatively loose. Some enterprises completed maintenance, and production stabilized. Supply was significantly higher than the same period last year, agricultural demand decreased significantly, the compound fertilizer operating rate stopped increasing, and exports were not further liberalized. Indian tender prices were as high as $530 per ton, but China did not participate. Enterprise inventories increased again, forcing enterprises to lower prices. A few low - price enterprises saw an improvement in order - receiving, and the recent decline may be limited [10]. - Ammonium chloride prices remained stable, and the operating rate changed little recently. The demand side mainly executed previous orders. Affected by the weakening of urea prices, market purchasing power was weak, and most traders were waiting and watching [14]. - The ammonium sulfate market had few transactions, and the current supply - demand relationship was still relatively loose. The operating rate of the caprolactam plant increased to 93.48%. With the preliminary reduction of the Shanxi Yangmei plant, the subsequent operating rate may be slightly reduced. After several rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' product profits recovered, and the operating rate increased slightly. Overall, ammonium sulfate supply was slightly stronger [14]. - Current export profits continue to remain high, but there is still no news of new export quota releases, and potential export demand cannot be freely released [33]. Operating Rate - Coal - based profits are still good. The operating rate during summer maintenance remains relatively low but is still at a high level over the years. According to Longzhong Information statistics, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, some enterprises plan to stop production, and the overall operating rate will not change much [43]. Inventory - This week, enterprise inventories slightly increased. Domestic demand entered the off - season, and the compound fertilizer operating rate was also blocked from rising. Enterprises had relatively difficulty in receiving orders [54]. - This week, port inventories slightly decreased, with little change. Large - granular urea at Yantai Port left the port successively. There was a small amount of large - granular urea being shipped to Longkou Port, Jinzhou Port, and Rizhao Port, and small - granular urea was shipped to Longkou Port, Qinhuangdao Port, and Zhenjiang Port. Most ports had both departure and arrival of goods [54]. Profit - Coal prices have continued to rise slightly, increasing the cost of coal - based urea production [63]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea production has almost disappeared [78]. Export - Exports currently remain in the same state as before, with no news of further liberalization. After domestic prices weakened, potential export profits still remained extremely high. Although domestic supply and demand are relatively loose, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand caused by export policy changes [83]. Domestic Demand - Urea prices weakened, while phosphate and potash fertilizer prices were relatively firm. The overall cost of compound fertilizer changed little. The arrival of autumn wheat fertilizer in Henan and other places was slow, and it is expected to have large - scale shipments in September. Attention should be paid to changes in autumn fertilizer demand [94]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer sales was slow, and the output of compound fertilizer slightly decreased [97]. - The price of melamine rebounded significantly, mainly due to an increase in enterprise maintenance. The operating rate has decreased significantly recently. As of August 14, the melamine capacity utilization rate was around 44.25%, and some enterprises still have device maintenance plans from September to October. However, there are still no signs of substantial recovery on the demand side. The output of panel furniture is weak, and the demand for melamine impregnated paper grows slowly. The sustainability of the subsequent melamine price increase still depends on demand changes [108]. Raw Materials - Recently, coal demand has remained high, supply has slightly decreased, and prices have continued to rise slightly. Due to the increase in new energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the relatively high inventory of power plants, the upward space for coal prices remains to be observed [142]. - The supply - demand situation of synthetic ammonia has recently weakened significantly. After the completion of maintenance in the north, production has increased significantly again, while downstream demand remains tepid. Ammonia enterprises' inventory pressure has rapidly increased, and prices are under pressure to decline [151]. Futures and Basis - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than the historical average, and enterprises have a strong willingness to deliver goods [181]. Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, and surplus of urea from September 2024 to December 2025. In the recent period, the export volume of compound fertilizer has increased significantly, slightly increasing the demand for compound fertilizer [185][187].

8月18日，亚钾国际今日收盘31.0元，下跌1.49%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四季度每股收益总和的 比值）达到22.85倍，总市值286.46亿元。 来源：金融界 最新一期业绩显示，2025年一季报，公司实现营业收入12.13亿元，同比91.47%；净利润3.84亿元，同 比373.53%，销售毛利率54.12%。 从行业市盈率排名来看，公司所处的化肥行业行业市盈率平均25.53倍，行业中值21.53倍，亚钾国际排 名第17位。 序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)13亚钾国际22.8530.142.37286.46亿行业平均 25.5327.172.65173.86亿行业中值21.5323.851.8479.61亿1云天化9.128.831.99470.70亿2新洋丰 11.5713.451.60176.92亿3史丹利12.3513.091.52108.16亿4云图控股14.4215.151.36121.86亿5司尔特 16.7714.660.8545.67亿6兴发集团17.8517.061.25273.17亿7芭田股份18.5223.852.8897.59亿8东方铁塔 20.122 ...

Group 1 - As of August 18, urea futures showed a strong performance with the main contract priced at 1755.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% increase [1] - Urea prices in various regions include Shandong at 1680-1710 CNY/ton, Hebei at 1710 CNY/ton, and Xinjiang at 1550 CNY/ton, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons [2] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 887,600 tons, which is lower than last week's expectations, while port sample inventory is 483,000 tons, higher than last week's expectations [2] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Futures indicates that while production is expected to slightly recover, upstream urea enterprise inventories have accumulated due to slow domestic demand [3] - Wukuang Futures notes that domestic production has shifted from decline to increase, with overall supply remaining relatively loose, but agricultural demand is entering a low season [3] - Current market conditions are weak, but with low enterprise profits and limited downside potential, there may be opportunities for price recovery if positive news emerges [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea is more likely to decline than rise, but the downside space is limited, with support at the price of 1700. The reasons include an increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, high production and operation rates year - on - year, a shift of domestic agricultural demand to the off - season, limited overall demand support from industrial compound fertilizers, a weakening cost support for urea moving down to around 1500 - 1600, and the implementation of export policies. Attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3]. - Overall, the domestic urea supply remains high and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers is at a low level. The overall demand support is relatively weak. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the urea price, so it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - **Cost - side Logic**: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but the coal - based production cost is at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [6]. - **Supply - side Logic**: Recently, the number of domestic maintenance devices has increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply is loose [6]. - **Demand - side Logic**: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, last week's meeting approved an export quota of 20 - 300,000 tons to India, but this quota is included in the first two batches, and there is no new third - batch export quota. The total export quota remains unchanged. From the current export inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [6]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - **Urea Market Price**: This week, the domestic urea spot market has declined weakly, with the average price in the mainstream regions falling by about 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The current market supply - demand pattern remains loose, the hype expectation for exports has faded, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. The bearish sentiment in the spot market is strong, and the downstream procurement psychological price continues to decline. Urea factories generally adopt a "price - for - volume" strategy, but high - priced goods have difficulty in trading [26]. - **Regional Price Differences**: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [38]. - **Urea Spot Profit**: Recently, domestic coal prices have been mainly stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. The ex - factory price of urea has continued to decline, and the profit of coal - based urea has slightly narrowed. The price of natural gas under the agreement has been stable, and the profit of gas - based urea in the southwest region has remained stable [54]. - **Comparison with Other Fertilizers**: The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate and potash fertilizers are at relatively low levels compared with previous years [65]. - **Overseas Prices and Price Differences**: China is a net exporter of urea. The theoretical export profit can be calculated based on the difference between overseas prices and domestic trade prices to judge the possibility of exports. The international urea price has generally decreased after the market digested the Indian tender, and it is expected to decline further in the future [70][80]. - **Price Differences and Calendar Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea has strengthened by 7 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the decline in the spot and futures prices this week, the basis has continued to weaken. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan has weakened by 33 yuan/ton compared with last week [79]. 3.3 Urea Production, Sales, and Inventory - **Supply - Production and Operation**: This week, the domestic urea production volume is 134.86 million tons (Longzhong's data), an increase of 2.01 million tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% compared with last week. Among them, the operation rate of coal - based urea is 85.51%, and that of gas - based urea is 75.77%. The maintenance loss of domestic urea devices this week is 19.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons compared with last week [94][101]. - **Demand - Agricultural Fertilization**: No specific and useful information about agricultural fertilization demand is provided in the document. - **Demand - Compound Fertilizers**: This week, the market price of compound fertilizers has been stable with partial slight stability. The operation rate has increased by 1.98% to 43.48%, and the inventory has increased by 2.61 million tons to 82.65 million tons [117]. - **Demand - Melamine**: This week, the production volume of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28% compared with last week. The domestic melamine market has continued to rise, supported by the reduction in supply. However, the demand is still weak, and the support from raw materials is limited [128]. - **Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory is 113.43 million tons (Longzhong's data), a decrease of 1.37 million tons compared with last week, and the port inventory is 39.8 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared with last week. According to Baichuan's data, the enterprise inventory and port inventory also show different trends [139].