周五晚，特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席引爆了贵金属数十年来最惨烈的抛售，黄金曾跌11%，白银一度暴跌35%。笔者看空研究空却没来得及空，拍断大 腿。就算经历暴跌，看黄金近三个月的涨幅，比特币还有脸叫自己数字黄金吗？金价涨主要逻辑有两条：1世界越乱，需求越涨。2央行购金对价格不敏感。 逻辑1从达沃斯论坛也可见一斑。过去三年的主题分别是"在分裂的世界中加强合作"；"重建信任"；"对话的精神"。合作谈不拢？那就先重建信任。信任也 建不起来？那再退一步，起码坐下来聊聊吧。过去十年，黄金价格从1000美元/盎司走到2000，用了4年8个月；从2000走到3000，用了4年9个月；从3000走 到4000，用了7个月； 从4000走到5000，只用了111天。从5000到5600只用了三天。那些支持金价涨的理由都对，但都是一年或以上的长逻辑，解释不了金 价上周的加速赶顶。一个明显的背离是紫金矿业，紫金黄金国际，山东黄金，招金矿业等金股都在小心翼翼地创新高，义无反顾地回调。 难道上周初看多黄金的资金在赌美元美债短期能违约吗？最近看了一本书《美国违约》揭开了一段被集体遗忘的历史。1933年，大萧条最严重的时候，美国 已经债务违 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]

市场普遍认为，这波贵金属市场的回调更多是技术层面而非底层逻辑生变。美国银行首席投资策略师 Michael Hartnett在最新研报中称，对投资者而言，尽管黄金的短期波动剧烈，但驱动黄金和实物资产上 涨的宏观逻辑依然牢固。除非发生比当前宏观叙事更具破坏力的"更大事件"，否则这场由货币贬值驱动 的强势行情难以轻易终结。 每日经济新闻 1月26日-1月30日，受美元贬值及地缘冲突升级影响，金价持续冲高，28日触及5626美元后小幅震荡回 落，1月30日，受特朗普提名"鹰派"凯文・沃什出任美联储主席消息影响，黄金市场现巨幅波动，期货 黄金单日最大跌幅超14%，盘中最低触及4700美元/盎司，收盘下跌8.35%，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期 货报4907.5美元/盎司周度跌2.12%报4983.1美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度涨 4.33%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨7.23%，有色金属ETF基金（516650）周度涨2.18%。 近期国内外贵金属价格波动剧烈，市场不确定性显著增强，工商银行发布贵金属市场风险提示，建议投 资者在审慎评估自身风险承受能力的基础上，保持理性投资心态，避 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

近日，贵金属市场风云突变，此前一路高歌猛进的黄金和白银掉头向下，上演了一场惊心动魄的"高台 跳水"。 2月2日盘初，现货白银走低，跌近8%，跌破79美元。现货黄金跌超4%，跌破4700美元。 截至08:30，现货白银、黄金持续反弹。现货白银转涨，现货黄金跌幅收窄至1%。 市场普遍认为，美联储下届主席人选及政策风向转变，是本轮金银"高台跳水"的导火索。 当地时间1月30日晚间，美国总统特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，凯文·沃什此前长期以鹰派立 场闻名，主张降息缩表，被华尔街投资者普遍定义为"鹰派中略偏鸽"的候选人，叠加美国PPI（工业品 出厂价格指数）再度抬头，1月29日美联储议息会议维持基准利率不变，市场此前较为一致的宽松预期 接连动摇。 最后，交易结构放大波动。当预期的逆转与技术性回调需求叠加，价格的下跌不能排除触发了程序化止 损与高杠杆头寸的连锁平仓。这种交易结构层面的"多米诺效应"，可能在短期内急剧放大了波动的幅 度。 "这次波动深刻地揭示了现代金融市场的特征，在复杂的交易结构下，基于短期预期的情绪转变可以被 迅速传导和放大，从而造成远超基本面瞬时变化的剧烈价格摆动。"南方基金司南多资产稳健组合主 ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 5405.00 with no change [1][2] - London Silver's latest price is 118.45 with no change [1][2] - London Platinum's latest price is 2671.00 with no change [1][2] - London Palladium's latest price is 2014.00 with no change [1][2] - WTI Crude Oil's latest price is 65.21 with a change of -0.21 [1][2] - LME Copper's latest price is 13276.00 with a change of -637.50 [1][2] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 96.16 with no change [2] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.20 with no change [2] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.38 with no change [2] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 153.15 with no change [2] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.90 with a change of 0.01 [2] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 12698.10 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 455.07 with a change of -26.94 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1087.10 with a change of 0.57 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15523.36 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 612.09 with no change [3] - SGE Gold and SGE Silver's latest deferred - fee payment directions are both 2 with no change [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities predicts significant price increases for various metals by 2026, driven by factors such as monetary attributes, safe-haven demand, supply constraints, and structural low inventories [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the continued resonance of monetary attributes and safe-haven sentiment, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [1] - Silver is anticipated to experience strong price elasticity due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm, with a price target of $120 per ounce by 2026 [1] Group 2: Base Metals - Supply constraints, resilient demand, and structural low inventories are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton for copper and 23,000 yuan per ton for aluminum by 2026 [1] Group 3: Battery Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise to a range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026, driven by strong demand from energy storage batteries [1] - Cobalt prices are projected to be in the range of 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [1] - Nickel prices are expected to rebound to $22,000 per ton, influenced by quota reductions in Indonesia [1] Group 4: Other Metals - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness and strategic metal premiums, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton for rare earths, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton for tungsten, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton for tin, and $100 per pound for natural uranium by 2026 [1]

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Market Overview - Bitcoin has dropped below $79,000, resulting in a market cap loss of $111 billion and 420,000 liquidations [1] - Silver experienced a significant decline, falling over 36% in a single day, marking the largest drop since 1980 [1] Federal Reserve Leadership Change - Trump's nomination of Waller as the new Fed Chair has caused market turmoil, as he is perceived as "hawkish" and less inclined to implement monetary easing [3] - This leadership change is likened to past events, such as Bernanke's appointment in 2008, which initially caused panic but eventually led to a market rally [3] Cryptocurrency and Precious Metals - Bitcoin's recent performance has disappointed many investors, as it has not consistently followed gold's price movements [3] - Investors are advised to limit their exposure to cryptocurrencies due to their high volatility and lack of clear valuation logic [3] A-Share Market Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that the wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, suggesting a shift from small-cap stocks to larger, quality companies [3] - The market is expected to transition back to blue-chip stocks, similar to trends observed in 2020 [3] Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets - The "Three No Principles" for long-term investors are emphasized: do not chase high prices, do not sell quality assets, and do not over-leverage positions [4] - The increase in value-added tax for the three major telecom operators from 6% to 9% may impact profits and dividends, but operators can mitigate this through pricing adjustments [4] AI Sector Developments - Tencent is accelerating its AI strategy, transitioning to a "smart ecosystem" approach, which is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various industries [4] - The AI sector is experiencing significant volatility, and investors are advised to focus on real demand rather than speculative narratives [5] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - Local governments have set economic growth targets, with many adjusting consumption and investment goals downward, indicating a year focused on policy implementation [5] - Sectors such as renewable energy and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from strong policy support [5] Actionable Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on cyclical sectors (chemicals, non-ferrous metals) and technology (AI applications, domestic computing) while avoiding volatile assets like precious metals and cryptocurrencies [6] - Maintaining quality assets and employing a strategy of holding 30% of positions and gradually increasing exposure during market dips is recommended [6] Key Market Signals to Monitor - Important signals to watch include upcoming earnings reports from major US companies (Amazon, Google, Disney), US employment data, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, as these will influence market direction [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the nomination of Waller by Trump to lead the Federal Reserve has triggered a significant sell-off in precious metals, with gold and silver experiencing substantial declines [1][4]. - Gold prices saw a sharp drop of 4% at one point, reflecting the largest decline in over a decade, before rebounding to around $4758, resulting in a daily decrease of 2.1% [1]. - Silver experienced an even more severe decline, with intraday losses approaching 12%, currently rebounding to $81.68, marking a daily drop of 3.26% [4]. Group 2 - Other precious metals, including platinum and palladium, also faced declines amid the sell-off [6]. - Brent crude oil futures fell by 2.8%, settling at $67.38 per barrel [6]. - U.S. stock futures also declined, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down by 0.6% and the S&P 500 futures down by 0.32% [7].