Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully price in the CL spread in the short - term, and the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, and reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside spreads can be considered under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc maintains a short - allocation idea, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended; long inside - outside spreads can be held, and attention can be paid to positive spreads between months [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to the terminal consumption destocking strength [12]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term observation is recommended [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly in the short term [16]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and COMEX copper rose 16%. The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the rigid import gap, so the 50% tariff may not be fully priced in the short - term. Attention should be paid to exemption situations. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse spreads [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons in July. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. There is a risk of a short squeeze when LME inventory is below 100,000 tons. Short - allocation, long inside - outside spreads, and positive spreads between months are recommended [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The worry about ore - end disturbances has eased, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply from scrap is weak, and demand from batteries is also weak. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption destocking [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Demand from soldering tin is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe in the short term [14]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up changed little this week. Output is expected to decline in July and subsequent months, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking. It is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded from a low level. Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It provides market conditions, news, capital flows, and operational suggestions for each sector, aiming to offer investors insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed a decline with volume contraction, and structural themes were active. Four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. Amid new US trade policy negotiation windows, it's advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market was in a narrow - range oscillation. With the central bank's increased open - market operations, the bond market sentiment improved. A range - bound operation strategy is recommended, and one can consider a curve - steepening strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Rumors of Trump dismissing the Fed chairman affected market sentiment, causing precious metals to rise. Gold has a long - term upward trend, but currently lacks a clear driver. Silver may have further upward potential, and it's recommended to buy on dips [8][10][11]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Container Shipping Futures**: The futures market oscillated downward. The 08 contract is expected to be strong, and it's advisable to be bullish on it [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US tariffs will change the supply pattern, and the market will focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term view is a weakening oscillation [15][16][19]. - **Alumina**: Spot supply is temporarily tight, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It's recommended to short on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: High - level prices are under pressure. The short - term view is a wide - range oscillation [21][22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market is in a weak state during the off - season, with a weakening oscillation expected [24][25]. - **Zinc**: Inventories are increasing, and demand is expected to be weak. The short - term view is an oscillation [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to recover, and it's recommended to hold short positions [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The market oscillates strongly, but industrial overcapacity restricts upward movement. The short - term view is an interval adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market oscillates, with the short - term view being an interval operation [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is strong due to news, but fundamental pressure remains. The short - term view is a strong - range oscillation [39][40][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Valuation is being repaired, and the market may enter an oscillating phase [43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is oscillating strongly. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread operation [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are strong, and it's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coking - coal spread operation [49][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to rebound. It's recommended to go long on dips and conduct a long - iron - ore short - coke spread operation [52][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: US soybeans have strong bottom support, and domestic meal prices are supported by rising import costs. It's advisable to be cautiously bullish [58][59][60]. - **Pigs**: There is potential supply pressure, and it's recommended to go short on rallies [61][62]. - **Corn**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating and correcting [63].

Group 1 - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 3100.0 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.39% observed, reaching a low of 3055.0 CNY [1] - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity has rebounded to historical highs, leading to an oversupply situation, while the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low at just over 20,000 tons, making it difficult for futures to decline significantly [1] - There are expectations of production resumption from Guinea mining companies, and with the upcoming import of aluminum oxide in July, the supply pressure is expected to persist [1] Group 2 - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates that the current aluminum oxide spot prices are maintaining a slight premium due to limited spot liquidity, but further upward movement requires more bullish signals from production capacity and inventory changes [2] - The short-term outlook for aluminum oxide is expected to be dominated by fluctuations, while medium to long-term supply pressures remain significant [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. The import concentrate TC is still rising, and the domestic smelting profit is still substantial. The expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. The continuous increase in overseas inventory and rapid accumulation of social inventory will put pressure on zinc prices. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.95 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 22,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with the premium unchanged at 30 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -50 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 110 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On July 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,040 yuan/ton and closed at 22,045 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,469 lots, a decrease of 29,569 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 78,311 lots, a decrease of 5,993 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,065 yuan/ton and a low of 21,965 yuan/ton. [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 93,100 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of July 16, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The decline in absolute prices has not stimulated downstream continuous restocking. The downstream raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot premium has further declined slightly. [3] - **Cost Side**: The import concentrate TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. The domestic smelting profit is still substantial, and the expectation of supply surplus in the second half of the year remains unchanged. The smelter's raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves, and the enthusiasm for purchasing from the concentrate side is not high. [3] - **Consumption Side**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, and the social inventory is showing a trend of accumulation. [3]

Group 1 - China's refined copper production in June reached 1.302 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2% [1] - China's lead production in June totaled 660,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1] - China's zinc production in June amounted to 628,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 5.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion issued by Shanghai Jintiancheng Law Firm confirms the legality and validity of the convening and holding procedures of Shandong Hengbang Smelting Co., Ltd.'s third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 [1][5][8] Group 1: Meeting Organization - The extraordinary general meeting was convened by the company's board of directors, with the decision made during the second temporary meeting of the ninth board on June 27, 2025 [2][3] - The notice for the meeting was published on June 28, 2025, across multiple platforms, ensuring a 15-day notice period before the meeting [3] - The meeting took place on July 16, 2025, at 14:30 in Yantai City, Shandong Province, utilizing both on-site and online voting methods [3][4] Group 2: Attendance and Voting - A total of 387 shareholders and their proxies attended the meeting, representing 632,187,833 shares, which is 55.0647% of the total voting shares [5][6] - Among the attendees, 5 shareholders represented 618,996,466 shares, accounting for 53.9158% of the total shares [5] - The online voting system recorded participation from 382 shareholders, representing a significant portion of the voting rights [6] Group 3: Voting Results - The voting results showed that 630,131,052 shares (99.6747%) were in favor of the proposals, while 1,891,881 shares were against [7][8] - For small investors, 16,210,686 shares (88.7407%) voted in favor, with 1,891,881 shares against [7] - The overall voting process and results were deemed legal and valid according to relevant laws and regulations [8]

Meeting Details - The meeting was held on July 16, 2025, with both onsite and online voting options available for shareholders [1][2] - A total of 387 shareholders participated, representing 632,187,833 shares, which is 55.0647% of the total shares with voting rights [1] Voting Participation - Out of the total participants, 5 shareholders voted onsite, representing 618,996,466 shares, while 382 shareholders voted online, representing 13,191,367 shares [2] - Among the small investors, 383 participated, representing 18,267,467 shares, which is 1.5911% of the total shares with voting rights [2] Resolutions and Voting Results - The meeting approved the proposed resolutions with 630,131,052 shares in favor, accounting for 99.6747% of the valid votes cast [2] - Small investors voted with 16,210,686 shares in favor, representing 88.7407% of the small shareholders' valid votes [3] Legal Compliance - The meeting was witnessed by lawyers from Shanghai Jintiancheng Law Firm, confirming that the procedures and voting processes complied with relevant laws and regulations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The higher-than-expected US CPI in June weakens the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The easing of Sino-US negotiations and the optimistic trade sentiment in some countries reduce the safe-haven demand, but there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, which is supported by geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases in the long term. The US dollar trend and subsequent economic data are the key disturbances [3]. - Copper: Trump's move to impose tariffs on copper has both explicit and implicit reasons. In the short term, copper prices may still be mainly volatile [15]. - Aluminum: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The tariffs imposed by Trump may suppress metals. The upside space of Shanghai aluminum is limited in the short term, and it is recommended to be bearish in the medium and long term. Alumina has an expected supply surplus, and there is still a short - term risk of a squeeze, but the upward momentum is weakening. The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported, but the demand is weak [34][35]. - Zinc: The supply side is gradually transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the traditional off - season. In the short term, focus on macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [62]. - Nickel: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - Tin: Tin prices are still in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - Silicon Industry Chain: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Market Analysis**: The US 6 - month CPI weakens the interest - rate - cut expectation this month, but Powell's stance is neutral. The safe - haven demand is reduced, but there is still an expectation of an interest - rate cut in September. Wall Street institutions are bullish on gold, and the US dollar trend and economic data are key factors [3]. - **Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, ratios, and spreads are presented, such as SHFE gold and silver futures main - continuous prices, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences [4][10][12]. Copper - **Price and Market Analysis**: Trump's tariff on copper is based on the 232 clause of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act and aims to support the return of the US manufacturing industry. Copper prices may be volatile in the short term [15]. - **Data**: Copper futures and spot data are provided, including the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures, as well as spot prices, premiums, import profits and losses, and warehouse receipts [16][23][27]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is expected to accumulate. Trump's tariffs may suppress metals. Alumina has a supply surplus expectation, and cast aluminum alloy has cost support but weak demand [34][35]. - **Data**: Aluminum and alumina futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [36][43][46]. Zinc - **Price and Market Analysis**: The supply side is transitioning from tight to surplus, and the demand side is weak in the off - season. Focus on macro data and supply - side disturbances in the short term [62]. - **Data**: Zinc futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, basis, and inventory data [63][68][71]. Nickel - **Price and Market Analysis**: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, nickel iron prices are falling due to weak demand, stainless steel has limited upward drive, and nickel sulfate maintains a production - based - on - sales trend. Pay attention to tariff policies and fundamental improvements [75]. - **Data**: Nickel futures and related data are presented, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts, as well as data on nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profits [76][82][86]. Tin - **Price and Market Analysis**: Tin prices are in a volatile trend. Considering the upcoming outflow of Burmese ore and weak downstream demand, the upward pressure on tin prices is greater than the downward support [92]. - **Data**: Tin futures and spot data are provided, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [93][98][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Analysis**: The spot market of the lithium industry has an active transaction at the mine and lithium salt ends, but the downstream demand is dull. The futures show a pattern of reducing positions and rising, and the short - term market may be driven by sentiment [108]. - **Data**: Lithium carbonate futures and spot data are presented, including prices, spreads, and inventory data [109][112][115]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price and Market Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon has some support, but high inventory suppresses price increases. The prices of downstream products of polysilicon do not move in tandem. The short - term market may maintain a volatile and strong pattern, and beware of the risk of chasing up [117]. - **Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon - related data are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data [118][120][141].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, with supply and demand both weak and no obvious contradictions, tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will move in a range in the short term [1]. - For the zinc market, although there is strong bullish sentiment in the market, the supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation is emerging. Fundamentals are weak, and it is expected that zinc prices will be weak in a range in the short term, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,850 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,930 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,005 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.44, down 0.91% [1]. - **Zinc**: On July 16, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,080 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures主力合约收盘价 was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,732.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 8.08, down 0.74% [1]. 3.2 Inventory and Position - **Lead**: LME lead inventory was 271,075 tons; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,768 tons, up 6.60%; the futures active contract trading volume was 33,602 hands, up 6.48%; the futures active contract open interest was 52,667 hands, up 0.43%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.64, up 6.03% [1]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory was 118,600 tons; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 11,184 tons, up 21.95%; the futures active contract trading volume was 119,038 hands, down 12.56%; the futures active contract open interest was 84,304 hands, down 10.48%; the trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.41, down 2.32% [1]. 3.3 Industry News - A zinc smelter in Central China plans to conduct a 15 - day regular maintenance in August, expected to affect about 1,500 tons of production, and plans to add 20,000 tons of new capacity in the fourth quarter of this year or early next year [1]. - On July 14, the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 32.78 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 144,891 hands, a decrease of 1,790 hands; the LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 5.61 dollars/ton, with an open interest of 194,167 hands, an increase of 1,614 hands [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply. Refineries are facing cost issues and reduced production. Demand is shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchasing is expected to improve [1]. - **Zinc**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The impact of raw material shortages on production is weakening, and production is expected to increase. Although downstream purchasing increased slightly when zinc prices fell, overall demand remains weak [1].