国内库存反复，外强内弱 铝周报 2025/09/20 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止8月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4400万吨，部分电解铝置换项目投产使得运行产能小幅提升，产量373.3万 吨，同比增长1.22%。进入9月，电解铝运行产能预计延续小幅提升。 ◆ 库存&现货：国内铝锭社会库存录得63.6万吨，较上周增加1.8万吨，库存反复；保税区库存录得9.1万吨，较上周下降0.2吨；铝棒库存录得 14.4万吨，周环比上升0.3万吨。LME铝库存录得51.4万吨，环比上升，处于往年同期低位。国内华东铝锭现货贴水于期货20元/吨，LME市场 Cash/3M升水5.4美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年8月国内未锻轧铝及铝材出口53.4万吨，环比-1%，维持年内偏高水平。本周铝锭现货进口亏损环比扩 ...

中国有色矿业(01258)午后涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.85%，报13.02港元，成交额1.95亿港元。 针对媒体的指控，声称一百余名民众向法院提起请愿要求设立环境修复托管账户并存入800亿美元，公 司认为该索赔缺乏依据，已聘请当地专业律师团队应对。公司评估认为，该事件未对集团的经营或财务 状况造成重大影响，不构成内幕消息。公司提醒股东及投资者，任何非公司发布的信息未必反映公司实 际情况，投资决策应以公司在联交所网站发布的公告为准。 消息面上，中国有色矿业发布公告，针对近期媒体关于公司附属公司赞比亚谦比希湿法冶炼有限公司尾 矿坝溃坝事件的指控进行了澄清。对于尾矿坝事件，谦比希湿法已经依据政府指令全面履行修复和治理 义务，并已按照赞比亚政府出具的损害赔偿报告完成了对个体农户的赔偿工作。未来，公司将继续与赞 比亚政府紧密协作，全力推进环境影响评估和修复治理工作。 ...

Report Title - Zinc: Significant Cross - Market Contradictions, Zinc Prices Weakly Trending [1][6][11][19] Report Core View - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19] Summary by Related Catalogs 2022 Zinc Ingot Export Window Opening Review - In late 2021, rising domestic thermal coal prices increased domestic zinc smelting costs, and rising natural gas prices increased overseas zinc smelting costs in Europe and other regions, leading to a decline in smelting output and a joint increase in the prices of high - energy - consuming products such as aluminum and zinc. After the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on coal in October 2021 to study measures to intervene in coal prices, domestic energy prices quickly fell, significantly reducing the smelting costs of domestic aluminum and zinc smelters. Due to high overseas energy prices, the supply of LME zinc smelting remained tight, and LME zinc continued to rise while SHFE zinc's follow - up increase was relatively limited. From mid - October 2021, the SHFE - LME ratio began to decline, reaching a minimum of 0.97 in April 2022 after excluding exchange rates. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ingot exports were 5.35 tons, a significant increase compared to 0.27 tons in the same period of 2021. From January to May 2022, the cumulative zinc ore imports were 1.519 million physical tons, a 7.5% decrease compared to 1.642 million physical tons in the same period of 2021 [6] Review of the Current Round of SHFE - LME Contradictions in Zinc Ingots - At the beginning of 2025, due to a lower Benchmark for overseas zinc smelters compared to previous years, there was a high expectation of overseas zinc smelting production cuts. In contrast, the domestic zinc industry was in an oversupply cycle, with TC continuously rising and zinc smelting profits recovering quickly, causing the SHFE - LME ratio to decline slowly. Since mid - April 2025, the LME zinc ingot market has been continuously de - stocking, the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure and the 3 - 15 month spread structure have oscillated upwards, LME zinc has shown strength, and the decline rate of the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated. Since late June 2025, domestic zinc ingot social inventories have continued to accumulate, the SHFE zinc monthly spread has returned to the Contango structure, and SHFE zinc has struggled to rise. The structural contradictions in the overseas LME zinc market have intensified, the LME zinc monthly structure has changed to the Back structure. Coupled with the market's trading of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in August, the SHFE - LME ratio has declined at an accelerated pace [11] Future Price and Ratio Outlook - On the early morning of September 18, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than the market expected, putting short - term pressure on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Although the long - term outlook for LME zinc has weakened, the current low inventory situation of LME zinc shows a strong Back structure, providing some support for the near - term. In the domestic market, as smelting enterprises are approaching winter stockpiling, zinc concentrate processing fees are showing a divergence. The import zinc concentrate processing fee (TC) continues to rise, while the average domestic zinc concentrate TC has slightly declined. As the zinc ore import window closes, the increase in overseas zinc ore TC is expected to slow down, and the degree of zinc ore surplus will ease. Additionally, the SHFE - LME ratio has reached a relatively low level. If the ratio further declines and the zinc ingot export window opens, the liquidation of long - SHFE and short - LME arbitrage funds will also provide some support for SHFE zinc. Overall, the SHFE - LME ratio is expected to continue to trend weakly, but the decline rate may slow down, and domestic zinc prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [2][3][19]

Report Overview - The report is the Shenwan Futures Non - ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report dated September 19, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weakly downward fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2] Summary by Variety Copper - Night - session copper prices rose 0.1%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues high growth. Power industry shows positive growth, PV rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound, and factors like the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be monitored [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose 0.09%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth is slightly positive, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Short - term supply - demand may lean towards surplus, and zinc prices may have range - bound and weakly downward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Market Data Domestic Futures and Basis | Variety | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 79,620 | 30 | | Aluminum | 20,775 | - 20 | | Zinc | 22,035 | - 65 | | Nickel | 120,940 | - 1,630 | | Lead | 17,145 | - 120 | | Tin | 269,100 | 3,060 | [2] LME Data | Variety | LME 3 - month Previous Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Copper | 9,946 | - 71.09 | 149,775 | - 1,175 | | Aluminum | 2,705 | 4.89 | 483,775 | 0 | | Zinc | 2,913 | 24.27 | 48,975 | 0 | | Nickel | 15,335 | - 177.83 | 228,468 | 2,034 | | Lead | 2,004 | - 44.05 | 225,350 | - 2,500 | | Tin | 33,750 | - 155.00 | 2,645 | 0 | [2]

日度报告——综合晨报 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落，A 股放量 下跌 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-09-19 报 USDA 出口销售报告符合预期，美国生物燃料政策仍有不确定 性。国内豆粕表现疲弱，主要因市场交易中美可能达成涉及中 国采购美豆的协议。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申失业金人数大幅回落至 23.1 万 特朗普政府继续寻求罢免美联储理事，这意味着美联储政治化 的进一步上升，美元短期走势震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 商务部回应关于 tiktok 相关问题 综 A 股市场迎来放量大跌，权重股回调明显，监管方面有为市场降 温的考量。在政策转向的时刻，我们认为应降低多头敞口，减 小回撤。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 CONAB 预计巴西 25/26 年度大豆产量继续增加 有色金属（工业硅） 合盛硅业：部分股份质押及解质押公告 短期工业硅价格或在 8200-9200 元/吨运行，关注逢低做多机会。 能源化工（纯碱） 本周四纯碱厂家库存较周一小幅增加 今日纯碱期价有所下跌，主要是商品市场情绪整体转弱。国内 纯碱现货市场趋稳震荡，无明显波动。本周四纯碱厂家库存较 周一小幅增加。 | ...

Group 1: Company Research Summary - Southern Fund recently conducted research on three listed companies, focusing on their market dynamics and operational strategies [1][2][3] - Western Mining is considering acquiring overseas mining rights, with a focus on improving efficiency and cost control through outsourcing mining services [1] - Yuguang Gold Lead, a leading producer of lead and silver, aims for a revenue of 39.345 billion yuan and a net profit of 807 million yuan in 2024, with silver production targets set at 1,700 tons for 2025 [2] - Guorui Technology is expanding its radar business and low-altitude economy initiatives, with a commitment to cash dividends amounting to 195 million yuan for 2024, representing 31% of net profit [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Projections - Yuguang Gold Lead's gross profit margins are projected at 10.65% for gold products and 5.36% for silver products in 2024 [2] - Guorui Technology's revenue from radar business is showing significant growth, contributing positively to overall profits [3] - Southern Fund manages assets totaling 1,352.641 billion yuan, ranking 4th among 210 in total public fund management [3]

Core Insights - A new company named Xinshengyuan New Materials Factory has been established in Nanpiao District, Huludao City, with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Liu Jun Kui [1] - The business scope includes various activities such as: - Common non-ferrous metal smelting - Sales of non-metallic minerals and products - Manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products - Manufacturing and sales of petroleum products (excluding hazardous chemicals) - Sales and production of casting molding materials - Sales and manufacturing of metal-based and ceramic-based composite materials - Wood processing and sales - Manufacturing and sales of graphite and carbon products - Production and sales of refractory materials - Sales of coal and its products - Mineral processing [1]

Market Overview - As of September 18, the futures concept sector declined by 3.05%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with Yunnan Copper, Guosheng Financial Holdings, and Great Wall Securities leading the losses [1][2] Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included: - F5G concept: +1.45% - Co-packaged optics (CPO): +1.35% - Copper cable high-speed connection: +1.27% - National big fund holdings: +1.26% - AI PC: +1.05% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Metal lead: -3.94% - Metal zinc: -3.88% - Gold concept: -3.08% - Futures concept: -3.05% [1] Capital Flow - The futures concept sector experienced a net outflow of 14.853 billion yuan, with 61 stocks seeing net outflows, and 28 stocks exceeding 1 billion yuan in net outflows. The stock with the highest net outflow was Dongfang Wealth, with a net outflow of 4.991 billion yuan [1][2] - Other notable net outflows included: - CITIC Securities: -2.674 billion yuan - Guotai Junan: -746 million yuan - Shouchuang Securities: -512 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - The stocks with the largest net outflows in the futures concept sector included: - 300059 Dongfang Wealth: -4.75%, turnover rate: 6.86%, net outflow: -4990.97 million yuan - 600030 CITIC Securities: -2.21%, turnover rate: 3.06%, net outflow: -2673.97 million yuan - 601211 Guotai Junan: -1.84%, turnover rate: 1.57%, net outflow: -745.51 million yuan [2][3] - Other significant declines included: - 002939 Great Wall Securities: -6.14% - 000878 Yunnan Copper: -6.23% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shunbo Alloy's stock price has experienced a decline of 5.03% on September 18, with a total market capitalization of 4.927 billion yuan, indicating a continuous downward trend over the past three days [1] Company Overview - Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Alloy Co., Ltd. was established on March 21, 2003, and went public on August 28, 2020. The company specializes in the production and sale of recycled aluminum alloy ingots (liquid) [1] - The main revenue composition includes aluminum alloy ingots (liquid) at 93.30%, rolled aluminum products at 5.28%, other supplementary products at 1.11%, entrusted processing fees for aluminum alloy ingots at 0.31%, and aluminum particles at 0.01% [1] Fund Holdings - Huatai-PB Fund holds a significant position in Shunbo Alloy, with the Huatai-PB CSI 2000 Index Enhanced A Fund (019923) owning 371,200 shares, accounting for 0.67% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 144,800 yuan today, with a total floating loss of 52,000 yuan during the three-day decline [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Huatai-PB CSI 2000 Index Enhanced A include Sheng Hao, Lei Wenyuan, and Kong Lingye, with varying tenures and performance metrics [3] - Sheng Hao has a tenure of 9 years and 344 days, managing assets totaling 3.093 billion yuan, with the best return of 123.22% during his tenure [3] - Lei Wenyuan and Kong Lingye both have a tenure of 3 years and 46 days, managing assets of 1.042 billion yuan and 921 million yuan respectively, with Lei achieving a best return of 74.46% [3]

2025年09月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：储能需求旺盛，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 6 | | 多晶硅：现货价格小幅抬升 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 18 日 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,790 | -820 | 940 | 0 | 1,450 | 3,220 | | ...