1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market in 2025 differs significantly from 2023. Current demand support is weakening, and future demand may be over - drawn. Although short - term fundamentals have limited pressure, the upward space of the steel futures market is restricted [3]. - The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. Considering the approaching off - season, the current state is acceptable. Prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. - The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. - The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. - The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed minor fluctuations compared to June 20. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil remained relatively stable [4][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The current steel market has limited short - term fundamental pressure, but the upward space of the futures market is restricted due to factors such as the approaching off - season and potential over - drawn future demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased slightly compared to June 20, while the basis decreased. The prices of iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed minor changes [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. With the approaching off - season, prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The coking profit decreased slightly [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. Ferroalloy - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the ferroalloy (silicon - iron and silicon - manganese) futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese also changed [59][60]. - **Market Analysis**: The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and spreads showed minor changes compared to June 20. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed [71][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the glass futures prices and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions also changed [99][101]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock index market is in a "weak reality and strong expectation" situation, with a "range - bound" strategy recommended, and attention should be paid to the key support levels of Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 [2]. - For crude oil, high attention should be paid to the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the WTI main contract should focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel [3]. - Gold is in a sensitive intersection area of fundamentals and technicals, and without major geopolitical events, it is expected to be in high - level oscillations, with attention on US CPI data from July to August and the Israel - Iran conflict [4][5]. - Silver is in a correction range, with high volatility. Attention should be paid to the weekly support around $35.5 per ounce of the COMEX silver main contract [6]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term following the cost side [7]. - Ethylene glycol may have a range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. - PVC has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [10]. - PP has no improvement in fundamentals, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [12]. - Plastic has a weak fundamental situation, and the risk of sentiment decline should be vigilant [13]. - Soda ash should be treated with a bottom - oscillation mindset in the short - term [15]. - Glass can be treated with a strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. - Rubber's rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream starting rate and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [17][18]. - Methanol's futures price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction rhythm and downstream demand recovery [19]. - Corn's main contract is in an upward channel and may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [20]. - Peanut's main contract price is difficult to have a trending market in the short - term and should be treated as a range - bound operation [21]. - Cotton's price may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the previous gap [22]. - For live pigs, attention should be paid to whether the 2509 contract can break through the upper pressure level, and continuous attention should be paid to the slaughter situation [24]. - Eggs may still face pressure after a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Bean No. 2 may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [26]. - Bean meal may be in a range - bound state in the short - term [27]. - Bean oil may be in a strong - oscillation state in the short - term [28]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold, using the lower neckline of the copper price island as the defense line [29][30]. - For aluminum, aggressive investors can hold moderately, while conservative investors should wait and see [30][31]. - Alumina's 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [32]. - Cast aluminum alloy's 2511 contract may maintain a range - bound operation [33]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [35]. - Industrial silicon's 2509 contract is in bottom - level oscillations [36]. - Polysilicon's 2507 contract may be in a weak - oscillation state, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [37]. - Stainless steel is in a low - level wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [39]. - Hot - rolled coil has a low overall valuation, and a light - position long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the short - term [41]. - Iron ore's main contract may maintain an oscillation pattern in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the port inventory reduction speed and steel mill restart rhythm [42]. - Coking coal and coke's main contracts may oscillate in the near future, and attention should be paid to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [43]. Summary by Category Stock Index - Macro environment: The current situation shows a "weak reality and strong expectation" differentiation, with external disturbances suppressing market risk appetite and domestic economic data showing "weak recovery" characteristics [2]. - Market analysis: The margin trading balance - to - floating market capitalization ratio remains low, with funds flowing to small - and medium - cap stocks [2]. - Reference view: Adopt a "range - bound" strategy and pay attention to key support levels [2]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Israel - Iran conflict is the key factor affecting oil prices, and the price is fluctuating at a high level [3]. - Market analysis: The approaching summer peak season and declining US inventories support price increases, and the risk premium will change with the development of the conflict [3]. - Reference view: Focus on the pressure around $78 per barrel of the WTI main contract [3]. Gold - Macro and geopolitics: High - interest rate expectations suppress gold, while the Israel - Iran conflict and potential tariff increases drive up safe - haven demand [4]. - Market analysis: Gold prices have fallen under pressure this week, with the game between bulls and bears intensifying [4][5]. - Reference view: Treat it as high - level oscillations, and pay attention to US CPI data and the Israel - Iran conflict [5]. Silver - Market price: Spot silver has fallen into a correction range [6]. - Market analysis: Hawkish Fed statements and changes in geopolitical risk appetite affect silver, and industrial demand and inventory are also important factors [6]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the support level and be vigilant against price fluctuations [6]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [7]. - Market analysis: The cost side is strong, but the supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and demand is in the off - season [7]. - Reference view: Fluctuate following the cost side in the short - term [7]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis is positive [8]. - Market analysis: The supply side shows an "internal increase and external decrease" pattern, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [8]. PVC - Spot information: The spot price in East China has increased, and the price difference between ethylene and electricity has decreased [10]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased [10]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [10]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions have increased [11]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - Reference view: No improvement in fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [12]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions show different trends [13]. - Market analysis: Supply capacity utilization has decreased slightly, demand has a mixed performance, and inventory has decreased [13]. - Reference view: Weak fundamentals, be vigilant against sentiment decline [13]. Soda Ash - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [14]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, inventory has increased, and demand is average [14]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations in the short - term [15]. Glass - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are stable [16]. - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable, inventory has increased, and demand is weak [16]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation mindset in the short - term [16]. Rubber - Market price: Different types of rubber have different prices [17]. - Market analysis: Affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, supply is loose, and demand is affected by trade policies [17]. - Reference view: Pay attention to downstream starting rates and the rebound height of the energy - chemical sector [18]. Methanol - Spot information: Different regions have different spot prices [19]. - Market analysis: Futures prices have increased, port inventory has decreased, supply is at a high level, and demand has recovered unevenly [19]. - Reference view: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and demand [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: There are different purchase prices in different regions [20]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is slightly positive, domestic supply pressure has decreased, and demand is weak [20]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [20]. Peanut - Spot price: Spot prices vary in different regions [21]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel policy affects the market, and the supply - demand situation is weak in the short - term [21]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation in the short - term [21]. Cotton - Spot information: Spot prices are at a certain level [22]. - Market analysis: The USDA report is positive, domestic supply is expected to be loose, and demand is in the off - season [22]. - Reference view: Range - bound and strong operation in the short - term, pay attention to the gap [22]. Live Pigs - Spot market: The average price is stable [23]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is low, and farmers have a strong price - holding sentiment [23][24]. - Reference view: Pay attention to whether the contract can break through the upper pressure level and the slaughter situation [24]. Eggs - Spot market: The average price is stable [25]. - Market analysis: Supply is sufficient, demand is in the off - season, and there is a short - term rebound demand [25]. - Reference view: Pressure after a short - term rebound, wait and see [25]. Bean No. 2 - Spot information: There are different import costs for soybeans from different countries [26]. - Market analysis: The bio - fuel breakthrough and weather affect the market [26]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [26]. Bean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [27]. - Market analysis: Macro, international, and domestic supply - demand factors affect the market, with supply pressure and strong demand [27]. - Reference view: Range - bound in the short - term [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices vary in different regions [28]. - Market analysis: International factors and domestic supply - demand affect the market, and inventory pressure is increasing [28]. - Reference view: Strong - oscillation in the short - term [28]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of electrolytic copper has decreased, and the import copper ore index has fallen [29]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, and domestic policies affect the market, and the copper market is in a resonance state [29][30]. - Reference view: Hold and use the support line for defense [30]. Aluminum - Spot information: The spot price of aluminum has decreased [30]. - Market analysis: Fed policies, geopolitics, sufficient supply, and off - season demand affect the market [30]. - Reference view: Aggressive investors can hold moderately, conservative investors wait and see [31]. Alumina - Spot information: The average price has decreased [32]. - Market analysis: Supply is excessive, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory is high [32]. - Reference view: Weak adjustment trend [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The spot price has decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Cost support and off - season inventory accumulation are contradictory factors [33]. - Reference view: Range - bound operation [33]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have decreased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost, supply, and demand factors affect the market, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [34][35]. - Reference view: Conservative investors wait and see, aggressive investors operate within the range [35]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: Market prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and the price is under pressure [36]. - Reference view: Bottom - level oscillations [36]. Polysilicon - Spot information: Prices are stable [36]. - Market analysis: Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is still prominent [36]. - Reference view: Weak - oscillation, short - selling on rallies [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The spot price is stable [38]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is changing, and fundamentals are weak with supply pressure and poor demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The spot price has increased [39]. - Market analysis: The market is changing from a resistive decline to an oscillation, with low inventory and a low valuation [39]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [39]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The spot price has increased [40][41]. - Market analysis: The technical trend is stabilizing, with low inventory and a low valuation [41]. - Reference view: Low valuation, long - on - dips in the short - term [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: Indexes and prices are at a certain level [42]. - Market analysis: Supply is affected by hurricanes and domestic production reduction, demand is weak, and inventory and policies affect the price [42]. - Reference view: Oscillation pattern in the short - term, pay attention to inventory and steel mill restart [42]. Coal - Spot information: Spot prices have decreased [43]. - Market analysis: For coking coal, supply has decreased, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure; for coke, supply and demand are both weak [43]. - Reference view: Oscillation in the near future, pay attention to inventory and policies [43].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the strong crude oil drives the rubber to rebound. However, under the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold the short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material situation in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [1] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 13,950 yuan/ton; the whole milk basis increased by 162.50%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 0.72%; the cup rubber price decreased by 0.52%; the glue price remained unchanged; the natural rubber prices in Xishuangbanna and Hainan were mostly stable, with the glue price in Xishuangbanna increasing by 0.76% [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.18%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 25.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.73% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased, while China's production increased. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased, the domestic tire production in May decreased slightly, the tire export increased by 7.72%, the natural rubber import in April decreased by 11.93%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in May decreased by 11.59%. The production cost and production profit of Thai dry glue changed [1] - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.67%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 7.51%, the dry glue warehouse entry and exit rates in Qingdao changed [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating strongly. Although it is supported by the demand for restocking and the strong coking coal futures, the current fundamentals have not improved significantly. The increase in production may lead to inventory pressure and suppress the price. The current situation does not mean a bottom - rebound [3] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts decreased to varying degrees [3] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 2.29%, the production in Xinjiang decreased by 2.60%, the production in Yunnan decreased by 25.43%, the production in Sichuan increased by 109.47%, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased. The production of 97 - silicon decreased, and the production of recycled silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased slightly. The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The industrial silicon export in April decreased by 8.03% [3] - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, the social inventory decreased by 2.27%, and the contract inventory and non - warehouse inventory decreased [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The polysilicon price continues to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of increased supply and weakening demand. Although it supports the price of industrial silicon, the polysilicon fundamentals have not improved. The short positions can be held cautiously [5] - **Summary by Directory** - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained unchanged, and the basis of N - type material and cauliflower material increased [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract price decreased by 3.12%, and the monthly spreads of different contracts changed [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.53%, and the polycrystalline silicon production increased by 2.94%. In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.73%, the silicon wafer production decreased by 0.50%, and the silicon wafer demand decreased by 8.10%. In April, the polysilicon import decreased by 72.71%, the export increased by 66.17%, the silicon wafer import decreased by 15.29%, and the export decreased by 12.97% [5] - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 4.73%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.10% [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View** - **Soda Ash**: Although the soda ash futures stabilized with the market sentiment last week, the supply - demand pattern is still in obvious excess. There will be a further profit - reduction process. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and the inventory may increase after the end of maintenance. The short positions can be held [6] - **Glass**: The spot market improved last week, but the future pressure still exists. Entering the summer rainy season, the demand will slow down again. The glass industry needs capacity clearance, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050, with long - term pressure [6] - **Summary by Directory** - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 spread decreased by 18.18% [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in Northwest China decreased by 2.00%. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 spread increased by 1.05% [6] - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 8.06%, the weekly production increased by 8.04%, the float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.70%, the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.00%, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 4.76% [6] - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.84%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.82%, the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.87%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 15.91% [6] - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year new construction area increased by 2.99%, the construction area decreased by 7.56%, the completion area increased by 15.67%, and the sales area increased by 12.13% [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongyan Chemical (600328) has announced the acquisition of 100% ownership of Zhongyan Alkali Industry by allowing Taihu Investment to exit its stake through a capital reduction, which will enhance the company's control over natural soda mining rights and resources [1][2] - After the transaction, Zhongyan Alkali Industry will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zhongyan Chemical, and the company will fully support its operations in natural soda mining and processing [1] - Zhongyan Alkali Industry successfully won the bidding for natural soda mining rights in the Naiman Banner area of Tongliao City for 6.80866 billion yuan, which is the largest proven natural soda deposit in China [1][2] Group 2 - Natural soda has significant advantages over synthetic soda, including lower energy consumption, cost, and environmental benefits, positioning it to become the mainstream in the soda ash industry [2] - Zhongyan Chemical currently has a production capacity of 3.9 million tons of soda ash and has established processes in ammonia-soda and dual-soda methods, which will be complemented by the natural soda method to enhance product competitiveness [2] - The transaction is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring, and the company aims to optimize its industrial structure and enhance competitiveness through innovation and strategic investments in emerging industries [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 伊以冲突不确定性较高，油价高位震荡。当前核心驱动由供需转为地缘政 | | | | 治，伊以冲突走向主导油价，短期市场较为担忧战火扩大，极端情况下， | | | | 伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡。策略：双买期权策略。SC【555-585】 | | LPG | 偏强 | 地缘冲突不确定性上升，油价震荡偏强，液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击，短线走强，并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一；下 | | | | 游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好， | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略：上行风险较大，波动加剧，双买期权。PG | | | | 【4500-4650】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 装置维持高检修，现货涨势放缓，华北基差为-62（环比-14）。2024 年自 | | | | 伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD 占比分别为 2%、9%、13%，后续进口存缩量预期。 | | | | 下周检修力度增加，预计产量继续下降。近期市场情绪好转，下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has rebounded to a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,176 yuan/ton, the basis is 39 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 2.40% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Leveraging factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Inhibiting factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | | Current value | 1,176 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 39 yuan/ton | | Change rate | 0.51% | 0.00% | - 13.33% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, of which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 405,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 1 million tons) [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [23]. - **Float glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [26]. - **Photovoltaic glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [29]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash is 914,100 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has changed. In some years, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. The production capacity, output, import, export, and other indicators have also changed accordingly [33].

Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]

【 导读 】 中盐化工拟全资控股中盐碱业，股票不停牌 见习记者 庄佳 6月19日晚间， 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司（以下简称中盐化工） 发布公告称，公司与 中 石油太湖（北京）投资有限公司（以下简称太湖投资） 以获取内蒙古通辽地区天然碱采矿权 为目的， 共同出资设立中盐碱业 。2025年6月16日，中盐碱业参与 内蒙古自治区通辽市奈 曼旗大沁他拉地区天然碱采矿权竞拍 ，6月17日，中盐碱业以68.0866亿元竞得该采矿权， 截至本公告发布日，尚处于公示期。 现由太湖投资提出，经股东双方友好协商， 中盐化工拟同意太湖投资通过减资退出其在中盐 碱业的全部股权及相关权益 。减资后，中盐化工将持有中盐碱业100%的股权，并纳入公司 合并报表范围，减资事项实施后，后续关于天然碱资源相关投资将由中盐化工全资子公司完 成。 公告显示，本次交易相关事项尚存在重大不确定性，根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监 管指引第4号——停复牌》的相关规定，公司股票不停牌。公司将根据相关事项的进展情况， 及时履行信息披露义务。 构成重大 资产重组 中盐碱业成立于2025年3月，注册资本为4000万元，由太湖投资与中盐化工共同投资设立， 其中 ...

Transaction Overview - The company plans to agree to the reduction of capital by PetroChina Zhongyan (Inner Mongolia) Soda Industry Co., Ltd., which will result in it becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company [1][2][3] - PetroChina Zhongyan Soda Industry Co., Ltd. won the bidding for the natural soda mining rights in the Inner Mongolia region for 6.80866 billion yuan [1][3] - After the capital reduction, the company will hold 100% of the shares in Zhongyan Soda Industry, which will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [1][4] Asset Restructuring - The acquisition of Zhongyan Soda Industry constitutes a significant asset restructuring as per the regulations of the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies" [2][4] - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction and will not lead to a change in the control of the listed company [2][4] Financial Implications - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio was 28.65% as of March 2025, indicating a relatively low level of debt in the industry [2][8] - The total investment required for the development of the natural soda project is expected to be substantial, which may impact the company's financial position [2][8] Strategic Importance - The project aligns with national economic development requirements and industry policies, supporting the company's strategy to enhance its core competitiveness in the soda industry [6][7] - The natural soda method has significant cost advantages over synthetic soda production, positioning it as a mainstream option in the industry [7][8] Future Plans - The company will support Zhongyan Soda Industry in the development and processing of natural soda resources, aiming for early construction and production to benefit shareholders [6][7] - A detailed financing plan will be developed to ensure project funding through various means, including strategic investors and bank loans [8]