Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward trend in the short term, but its upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. The fundamental contradiction remains prominent, and the growth in new energy vehicle sales has not yet translated into restocking momentum for the material sector. The midstream continues to use the customer-supplied model to avoid exposure risks. Additionally, the expansion of the spot discount to over a thousand yuan will attract arbitrage funds, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure. Key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On July 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate was reported at 63,880 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day. The basis continued to weaken, and the spot discount to the futures widened to -1,080 yuan, indicating a divergence in the expectation of improved long-term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased significantly by 15,500 lots in a single day, and the trading volume soared by 155.69% to 545,000 lots, reaching a new high in the past week, intensifying the game between long and short funds [1] 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbing factors have increased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% month-on-month, but the pressure of medium-term supply expansion still exists. The raw material prices remained stalemate, with the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining flat in the past two weeks [2] - **Demand Side**: There was a marginal improvement but limited elasticity. In June, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the penetration rate exceeded 52.7%, with terminal data exceeding expectations. However, the transmission to the cathode material sector was limited. Ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate only saw a slight increase, the cell prices remained stable across the board, and midstream procurement was still mainly based on long-term agreements, with a low willingness to replenish inventory with spot orders [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory accumulation pressure in the industrial chain continued. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons month-on-month to 138,347 tons, rising for four consecutive weeks [2] 3. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward pattern in the short term, but the upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure, and key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, power-type ternary materials, and power-type lithium iron phosphate all saw slight increases on July 8 compared to the previous day, while the prices of lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various types of cells remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% compared to July 4, and the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [5] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 8, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 350 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward. In the future, the price may maintain a low-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the change in actual demand increments [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: In June, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the wholesale volume was 1.259 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - **Industry News**: Multiple companies announced production expansion and technological transformation plans, including the construction of the "Mamico Salt Lake Mining Project" by Tibet Ali Mamico Mining Development Co., Ltd., the technological transformation project of a 25,000-ton lithium salt production line by Zhongkuang Resources (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., etc [8][9] 6. Appendix: Large Model Inference Process - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but it is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, and may maintain a low-level volatile trend in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there is a substantial improvement in subsequent demand or more adjustments on the supply side [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases. However, the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Additionally, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li₂O: 5.5% - 6%) is 658 dollars, with a daily increase of 4 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 800 dollars, with a daily increase of 25 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,355 dollars, with a daily increase of 27.5 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 4,425 dollars, with a daily increase of 50 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 5,260 dollars, with a daily increase of 60 dollars [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,905 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 360 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1,510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1,790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,655 tons, with a decrease of 2,900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,988 yuan/ton, and the profit is 46 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 67,099 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,586 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a complex situation with a neutral fundamental outlook. The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,220 - 64,540 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 0.44% daily, with a profit of 46 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite increased by 0.87% daily, with a loss of 6,586 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end is lower than that of the ore end, with a high profit margin [8]. - **Basis**: On July 8, 2025, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 980 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 138,347 tons, a 1.10% increase from the previous week and higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.61%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.56% [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import and export data of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake) showed various changes. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The data of demand - related aspects such as the monthly output, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and other products also changed. For example, the monthly export of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 18.24% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed [23]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with a supply - demand gap in most months [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [37]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production, as well as the profit of lithium carbonate import, purification, and other aspects, showed different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects showed different trends over time [51]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters showed different trends over time [51]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of lithium batteries, as well as the cost of battery cells, showed different trends over time [54][58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from June 2024 to June 2025 showed fluctuations, with both surplus and deficit situations [64]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67]. - **Export and Import**: The export and import volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, production, and operating rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71]. - **Export and Inventory**: The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [74]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [79][80]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers showed different trends over time [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at high levels with a loose supply - demand outlook, but due to national policies guiding capacity clearance and expectations of automobile consumption stimulus, the prices of domestic and imported lithium concentrates have risen, suggesting that lithium carbonate prices may still have room to rise. It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - The basis of lithium carbonate is positive and generally within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. This is due to the continuation of domestic new - energy vehicle consumption stimulus policies. However, the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand outlook remains loose, so investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Concentrate - Ganfeng Lithium's Mali Goulamina lithium spodumene project phase I with an annual capacity of 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate was officially put into production in July, and Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, increasing the total capacity to 2.14 million tons per year. However, the daily prices of domestic and imported lithium ores have increased [9]. - Domestic lithium concentrate production in July may decrease month - on - month, while imports may increase [2][10][12]. Lithium Carbonate - The capacity utilization rate and production of domestic lithium carbonate have decreased compared to last week. However, with the possible commissioning of Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity in July 2025 and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon by December 2025, the production of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in July may increase month - on - month, and the supply outlook is loose [26]. - The import window is closed, and the import volume of Chinese lithium carbonate in July may decrease month - on - month [33]. - The daily cash production costs of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrates are about 61,700 and 66,500 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profits. The quarterly production profits of producing lithium carbonate from integrated lithium spodumene/mica/salt - lake sources are positive [18][22]. Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production costs of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide are 56,900 (64,600) yuan/ton, with positive (negative) production profits. The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to fine - grained lithium hydroxide has decreased [37][38]. - Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line by the end of 2025, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in July. The inventory of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelters and downstream) in July may increase month - on - month [42][51]. - The daily export profit of Chinese lithium hydroxide is negative, so the export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide in July may decrease month - on - month [47]. Demand Side - The production volume of Chinese lithium iron phosphate (lithium manganese iron phosphate) in July may increase month - on - month [59]. - The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in July may increase month - on - month [60]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium cobalt oxide in July may increase month - on - month [64]. - The production volume of Chinese lithium manganate in July may increase month - on - month [74]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary precursors has decreased month - on - month. The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursors from purchased raw materials is 79,450 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursors in July may increase month - on - month [80][82]. - The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - grade 5 - series ternary materials is 107,600 yuan/ton, with negative production profits. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has increased compared to last week, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production of Chinese ternary materials in July [91][94]. - The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage cells in July may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month; the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power cells in July may increase (increase, increase) month - on - month [3]. Investment Strategy - Short - term investors are advised to go long on the main contract with a light position at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [3]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for the time being, but the industry expectations have warmed up, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 63,880 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 70,067 lots, up 9,339 lots; the position of the main contract was 338,034 lots, up 15,500 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 1,360 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GME were 15,555 lots/ton, down 5,481 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 5,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,691 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume was 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total position of call options was 109,977 lots, down 78,188 lots; the total position of put options was 44,356 lots, down 55,958 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 40.33%, down 12.9797 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.23%, up 0.0119 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Shanghai Xiba plans to participate in the auction of the lithium sulfide business - related assets publicly listed for transfer by Youyan Rare Earth; Langte Intelligent invests 15 million yuan to set up a venture capital partnership; from January to June 2025, the average price cut of new energy vehicles was 23,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 12%, and in June, it was 15,000 yuan, with a price - cut intensity of 10.4%; CATL and Geely Auto signed a strategic cooperation agreement [2]. Technical and Operational Suggestions - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green column slightly expanded. The operation suggestion was to conduct short - selling transactions at high levels with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase, and there is no sign of production reduction in the ore end. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,600 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.5%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 63,920 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.22%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 63,660 yuan/ton, with no change; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 63,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.16%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 63,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.06% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 654 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 44 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan/ton; the average price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan/ton; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan/ton [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,770 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 65 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 120 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,805 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton [2] Price Difference - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 260 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 400 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 15,555 tons, with a decrease of 5481 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,715 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 28 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 66,522 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6352 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is currently characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,020 - 64,300 yuan/ton [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high and persistent supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to accept goods [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.43%, which is higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.92% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,660.56911 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.75%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 61,715 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 0.08%, with a production profit of -28 yuan/ton, indicating a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 66,522 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of -6,352 yuan/ton, also indicating a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the 09 contract is -1,110 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 138,347 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.10%, which is higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 58,890 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.24%; the downstream inventory is 40,497 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.33%; and other inventory is 38,960 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply surplus will intensify, and the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,020 - 64,300 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 0.40%. The basis of the 09 contract was -1,110 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 61.8%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.59%. The monthly production was 78,090 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 39,450 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 229,900 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.09% [17]. 3. Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown fluctuations over the years [22]. - **Production**: The production of domestic spodumene mines and lithium mica has shown different trends over the years [22]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with the import volume from Australia showing an increasing trend [22]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown fluctuations [22]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [22]. 4. Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [25]. 5. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) has shown different trends over the years [28]. - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources has changed over the years [28]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has fluctuated [28]. 6. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [33]. 7. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has shown different trends over the years [36]. - **Operating Rate**: The monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) has changed over the years [36]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources has shown different trends over the years [36]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has increased over the years [36]. 8. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [39]. 9. Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) have shown different trends over the years [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 10. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide (monthly and weekly, by source) has shown different trends over the years [49]. 11. Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has shown different trends over the years [53]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has changed over the years [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has increased over the years [53]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has shown different trends over the years [56]. 12. Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years [59]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed over the years [59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years [59]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed over the years [59]. 13. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of ternary precursors showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [62]. 14. Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [65]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over the years [65]. - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [65]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed over the years [65]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [67]. 15. Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [69]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over the years [69]. - **Operating Rate**: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [69]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [72]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [74]. 16. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) has increased over the years [77]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased over the years [77]. - **Sales**: The sales of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) have increased over the years [77]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased over the years [78]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio**: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles monitored by the Passenger Car Association have shown different trends over the years [81]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have shown different trends over the years [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recently, the fluctuations of lithium carbonate have resonated with low - priced varieties. The trading focus may return to the fundamentals of the variety after the range - bound trading of lithium carbonate futures. It is recommended to pay attention to the financial reports of overseas mining companies and the revision of demand expectations in the second half of the year [1]. - The current relationship between the futures market game and the fundamentals is low. In the future, the linkage between low - priced varieties will weaken, and the trading focus of lithium carbonate will return to the fundamentals of the variety. The expected game around supply and demand will affect the trend of lithium prices [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - From March to mid - June, lithium prices entered a new round of decline, with the main contract once reaching 58,400. In the past two weeks, the price fluctuations of lithium carbonate have resonated with low - priced varieties. As of July 4, LC2509 rebounded about 8.4% from the low point. However, the supply - demand reality of lithium carbonate remains weak. The profit of salt plants has recovered, and the domestic lithium carbonate output has remained high. In June, it increased by 8.3% month - on - month to 78,000 tons. The third - party domestic inventory has continued to rise since early June, accumulating a 5.2% increase in the past five weeks, and the inventory pressure before the peak season in the second half of the year is difficult to ease [3]. Supply: Mine Operation Adjustment - Among the global operating mines, the share of cash - loss enterprises has expanded. Lithium mines are optimizing resource allocation and seeking various financing channels to cope with operating pressure. The Marion mine in Australia is expected to receive an injection of 300 million Australian dollars, and SQM plans to lay off 5% of its employees in Chile. In 2025, no large - scale mines have withdrawn, and the cost support level is in doubt. In Q1 2025, Australian mines produced about 870,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a decrease of about 1/6 quarter - on - quarter. It is expected that the output in the second quarter will return to over 900,000 tons. Australian mining companies will announce their second - quarter reports and new fiscal - year production guidelines at the end of July, which may disturb the market [5]. Demand: Domestic Terminal Continuity - Since September last year, policies to support trade - ins have promoted automobile demand. In 2024, the sales volume driven by scrapping and replacement and local replacement was 1 million and 600,000 vehicles respectively. In the first half of this year, the terminal demand was optimistic. In June, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reached 49.8% in the first 26 weeks. However, since December 2024, the inventory of domestic new - energy vehicles has continued to rise, and the domestic new - energy vehicle inventory at the end of May was 880,000, a 115% increase compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were about 27 days, the highest this year. The domestic new - energy vehicle purchase tax policy is facing adjustment, and there are uncertainties in the domestic terminal [9][10]. Demand: Impact of the US Subsidy Cancellation - On July 1, the US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and on July 4, President Trump signed it into law. The bill cancels subsidies for green power projects and green transportation transformation, which is a medium - and long - term negative for lithium - battery demand. However, there may be a short - term demand boost due to the rush to install before the window period ends. From September 30, 2025, the US will no longer provide a $7,500 per - vehicle federal tax credit for electric vehicles. The subsidy for residential photovoltaic projects will be cancelled at the end of 2025, and the subsidy for public utility projects will be completely cancelled at the end of 2027 [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is significant, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,300 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,700 yuan with a daily increase of 200 yuan [1] - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 63,700 yuan with a decline of 0.34%; 2508 is 63,500 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2509 is 63,280 yuan with a decline of 0.75%; 2510 is 63,180 yuan with a decline of 0.69%; 2511 is 63,020 yuan with a decline of 0.63% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 653 yuan with a daily increase of 44 yuan [1] - The average price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 775 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1327.5 yuan with a daily increase of 12.5 yuan; the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 4375 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 5200 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,705 yuan with a daily increase of 45 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,640 yuan with a daily increase of 120 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,555 yuan with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,165 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan with a change of 1000 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first continuous contract is 220 yuan with a change of 140 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second continuous contract is 320 yuan with a change of - 40 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 21,036 tons with a decrease of 1844 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 61,667 yuan, and the profit is - 228 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 66,522 yuan, and the profit is - 6597 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices showed a strong and oscillating trend. The closing price of LC2507 increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 63,700 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2509 remained flat at 63,300 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 62,300 and 60,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.7% and 0.6% month - on - month to 57,600 and 62,700 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.2 yuan to 0.47 yuan/ton [2][12][13] - Driven by the difference in demand expectations, the center of the futures market has risen from 59,000 yuan to around 63,000 yuan. Last week, prices oscillated and adjusted, and the rigid procurement demand of downstream enterprises was gradually released, which confirmed the better - than - expected production schedule. During the rebound, the price of lithium ore increased rapidly, but the profit of the lithium salt processing link remained around the break - even point. Looking forward, domestic salt plants are in a state of both maintenance and resumption of production, and domestic production may still increase slightly month - on - month. However, the shipments from Chile and Argentina remain low, so the overall supply pressure is limited. The focus of market game may still be on the demand side. It is necessary to dynamically confirm the actual demand based on the trading situation in the spot market. In terms of strategies, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of buying on dips and positive spreads, and patiently wait for a more suitable time to arrange medium - term short positions [4][18][19] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chile's Shipment in June Remained Low, and the Market Competed for the Actual Quality of Apparent Demand - In June, Chile exported a total of 17,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, remaining flat month - on - month and decreasing by 26% year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 10,200 tons, increasing by 5.9% month - on - month and decreasing by 41% year - on - year. The shipments have remained low for two consecutive months, corresponding to the alleviation of China's import pressure in July - August. From January to June, Chile exported a total of 126,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export to China was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. In terms of lithium sulfate, in June, Chile shipped 7,700 tons (3,800 tons of LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 2404%. From January to June, the total shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 44,700 tons (22,400 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 172% [3][13] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of the remaining 40% equity of Mali Lithium. The first - phase annual production capacity of the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Mali is 506,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the production capacity is gradually being released [20] - Kodal Minerals signed a purchase agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 100,000 - 120,000 tons of lithium concentrate [20] - In June, Chile's export of lithium carbonate to China increased slightly. Considering the shipping cycle, the goods are expected to arrive at Chinese ports in July - August [21] - Zangge Mining's subsidiary obtained the construction project construction permit for the Mamilcuo mining project [21] - Qinghai Huixin's 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project was successfully commissioned, and it can produce about 15 tons of qualified products per day [22] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quote of Lithium Concentrate Rebounded - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from 629 US dollars/ton to 653 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.8% [13] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Oscillated at a High Level - The closing prices of LC2507 and LC2509 showed different trends, and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The price of lithium hydroxide continued to be weak, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [2][12][13] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of slight increases or remained flat [13] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in May - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in May, and the installed capacity and production and sales of power batteries also showed certain trends [46][51][55]