Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy due to President Trump's tariff policies, the job market remains robust with significant job growth in June [2][4][14] - The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 117,500, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [2][4] - Job growth was primarily driven by healthcare (+58,600 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+20,000 jobs), and state and local government (+80,000 jobs), while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate for Black workers rose by 0.8 percentage points to 6.8%, the highest level since January 2022 [5][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with the year-over-year growth rate dropping from 3.9% to 3.7% [5][12] - The report indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand due to rising tariffs and restrictive monetary policies, which may hinder hiring activities [4][11] Group 3 - The job market has shown low turnover rates, with hiring activity at a near ten-year low, suggesting employers are retaining their workers amid economic uncertainty [8][9] - Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased slightly, indicating that layoffs have not accelerated, but finding new jobs remains challenging for many [9][11] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data, with expectations of maintaining high interest rates due to concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs [11][12][14] Group 4 - Wall Street reacted positively to the employment report, with major indices rising, reflecting investor optimism about the resilience of the U.S. economy despite trade policy uncertainties [14] - The strong job report has led to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [14]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月05日 **ACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACKACK ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the CSI All Index for Medical Care Equipment and Services has shown mixed results, with a slight increase on the day but a decline over the past month, three months, and year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI All Index for Medical Care Equipment and Services rose by 0.21% to 13,548.3 points, with a trading volume of 19.92 billion [1]. - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 1.41%, by 2.78% over the past three months, and by 1.24% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index is composed of listed companies in the medical care sector, reflecting the overall performance of these securities [1]. - The index was established on December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1,000.0 [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the index are as follows: Mindray Medical (9.65%), United Imaging (8.18%), Aier Eye Hospital (7.43%), Aimeike (3.42%), Huatai Medical (3.23%), Yuyue Medical (2.81%), New Industry (2.79%), Lepu Medical (2.69%), Meinian Onehealth (2.06%), and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass (1.9%) [1]. Group 4: Market Distribution - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (60.10%) and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (39.90%) [1]. - The entire sample of the index is focused on the pharmaceutical and healthcare sector, with a 100% allocation [1]. Group 5: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Public funds tracking the index include various Southern and Tianhong funds, as well as ETFs from multiple asset management companies [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market conditions, emphasizing that economic downturns can present undervalued investment opportunities, contrary to the common belief that investments are only suitable during economic booms [10][19][18]. Market Overview - The market experienced a slight increase during the day, reaching a peak of 4.8 stars, but closed slightly down with the CSI All Share Index at 4.9 stars [1][2]. - Large-cap stocks like the CSI 300 saw minor gains, while small-cap stocks experienced slight declines [3]. - Value styles showed strong performance, with indices related to banks, dividends, and value overall rising [4][5]. - Growth styles saw a slight decrease [6]. Historical Context - The article outlines two types of bull markets: one driven by capital (e.g., 2015) and one driven by fundamentals (e.g., 2007, 2009, 2017, and early 2021) [11][12][13][15]. - It highlights that 2007 was a peak year for economic growth and corporate earnings, yet it also marked a significant market bubble [11]. - The 2009 stimulus plan led to a substantial increase in corporate earnings and a bull market, which eventually corrected [12]. - The year 2017 saw the fastest earnings growth in a decade, leading to elevated valuations [13][14]. Investment Timing - The article suggests that entering the market before fundamental improvements can yield significant returns [17]. - It warns that when most investors recognize a strong economy, it may already be too late, as valuations tend to be high at that point [18]. Economic Downturns - Economic downturns often correlate with slow corporate earnings growth, creating opportunities for undervalued investments [19]. - Historical examples include the 2008 financial crisis, where major indices reached low valuations, and subsequent recovery periods [20][21]. - The article notes that 2024 is projected to be a challenging year for corporate earnings, potentially leading to low valuations [21]. Valuation Data - The article provides valuation metrics for various indices, including P/E ratios, P/B ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [24][33].

美国此次以"对等关税"作为谈判筹码，让贸易伙伴扩大对美国商品的采购、促进制造业回流、强化供应链安全，并 为美国企业营造更有利的全球经营环境。目前，印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士等国有望与美国达成贸易协议或贸易框架协议。 而欧盟、日本、韩国以及部分东盟国家仍在谈判之中，既有可能达成贸易协议，也有较大可能获得关税延期。尽管此 次"对等关税"的不确定性或许会降低，但特朗普政府仍握有 232 条款、301 条款等其他加征关税的工具，这意味着 未来的贸易政策依然充满高度不确定性。 风险提示 美国为了达成贸易协定去除不确定性，放松贸易谈判条件；非美国家为了尽快达成贸易协定，答应美国诉求；特朗普 政府对于未达成贸易协定的国家直接拉高关税。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 | 国家/地区 | 逆差（十亿美元） | 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | 国家/地区 | | 逆差（十亿美元） 4月2日公布的对等关税 | 谈判进展 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国 | 295.40 | 34% | 贸易框架协议 | 老挝 | 0.76 | 48% | 尚未达成 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《内外利好共振，成长风格迎来布局窗 口》 - 2025.07.02 宏观观点 失业率意外下降，细节暗藏隐忧——6 月美国非农 数据解读 ⚫ 核心观点： 周四美国劳工部发布非农就业报告，6 月新增就业 14.7 万人，高 于预期的 11 万人，4、5 月合计上修 1.6 万人。6 月失业率小幅回落 至 4.1%，强于市场预期的 4.3%。在前一日公布的 ADP 就业数据疲软 后，这份亮眼的非农就业报告为美联储在 7 月维持利率不变提供了支 撑。然而，深入分析数据细节可以发现，失业率维持低位的背后，是 劳动力供需双双走弱的现实，这份报告仍然暗藏隐忧。 首先，劳动参与率有所下降，但按年龄划分，25-54 岁壮年群体 劳动参与率不降反升，年轻人的参与率下滑是主要拖累因素。其次， 美国平均每周工时和薪资增速均有所放缓，平均时薪环比仅增长 0.2%， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3497 points, closing at 3472.32 points, an increase of 0.32%, marking a new high for the year [1] - A500ETF Jiashi (159351) saw significant trading volume, with a total turnover of 33.406 billion yuan, ranking second in the market for similar products, and first in the Shenzhen market [1] - The trading turnover rate for A500ETF Jiashi reached 21.14%, the highest among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2 - A500ETF Jiashi (159351) tracks the CSI A500 Index, consisting of 500 stocks with large market capitalization and good liquidity, providing a balanced industry distribution and favoring large and mid-cap styles [2] - The fund includes a high proportion of new productive forces, offering investors a tool to allocate to representative A-share companies [2] - Investors can also access quality core asset opportunities through the Jiashi CSI A500 ETF linked fund [2]

美国劳工统计局（BLS）于2025年7月3日发布的《6月就业形势报告》显示，美国劳动力市场在年中呈 现出温和增长与基本稳定的态势。 这份报告的核心数据，特别是新增非农就业人数和失业率，为当前宏观经济环境和货币政策前景提供了 新的重要线索。 报告指出，2025年6月美国非农部门新增就业人口为14.7万人。这一数字与过去12个月的月均增长（14.6 万人）基本持平，表明就业增长速度保持在相对稳定的水平，但已显著低于前两年经济强劲复苏时期的 扩张步伐。 在薪资方面，私营非农部门平均时薪环比增长0.2%（8美分），至36.30美元。过去12个月的年化增长率 为3.7%。这一增速较前两年动辄5%以上的高点已明显回落，显示劳动力成本的上涨压力正在缓解，这 对控制通胀而言是一个积极信号。 不过，平均周工作时长略有下降0.1小时至34.2小时，这可能意味着企业对劳动力的总需求有所放缓。 从行业来看，6月的就业增长主要集中在对经济周期敏感度较低的领域，如州政府（特别是教育部门） 和医疗保健。联邦政府就业则继续呈现下降趋势。 其他多数主要行业的就业人数变化不大，这与整体温和的增长步伐相符。 综合来看，这份报告描绘了一个既非过热也 ...

Core Insights - The latest employment report indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, attributed to tighter immigration policies leading to a decrease in labor supply [1][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, awaiting data on tariffs' impact on inflation and consumption [1][8] Employment Data Summary - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, but private sector jobs only rose by 74,000, below the three-month average of 128,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.24% to 4.12%, not due to increased job opportunities but rather a decline in labor force participation, also linked to stricter immigration policies [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is exhibiting a paradox where private sector job growth is slowing, yet the market is becoming tighter [4] - Job growth in June was primarily in state government and healthcare, with private sector employment led by a slowdown in the service industry [4] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration restrictions have two main effects on the labor market: 1. It lowers the employment balance point needed to maintain stable unemployment from 210,000 jobs per month last year to 140,000 this year, with expectations of a further drop to 70,000 by year-end [5] 2. It suppresses labor force participation rates, as enforcement actions create a chilling effect, reducing the willingness of workers to participate [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, with a year-over-year growth rate declining from 3.8% to 3.7% [8] - Despite a gradual slowdown in labor input, there is no significant market loosening, and the unemployment rate remains low, leading the Federal Reserve to likely refrain from interest rate cuts in July [8]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]