工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...

多晶硅日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 18 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅/多晶 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） ...

行业自律落地预期影响，价格震荡上行 工业硅： 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 2025-12-17，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8380元/吨，最后收于8470元/吨，较前一日结算变化 （130）元/吨，变化（1.56）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓210810手，2025-12-16仓单总数为8815手，较前一 日变化0手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。SMM统计，12月5日至12月11日，新疆地区样本硅厂周度产 量在42560吨，周度开工率在88％，较前周环比增加。周内新疆样本硅企产量增加主因上周新增硅炉产量释放。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。SMM报道，自12月上旬起，国内有机硅单体企 业逐步进入减排执行阶段，叠加11月中旬实控 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日多晶硅主力合约2605合约震荡上行，最终收于61595元/吨，涨幅4.36%。成交量37.33万手，持仓量 15.3万手，日增仓5450手。近日多晶硅持续上涨，并强势突破6万元/吨心理关口，主要是受到行业自律 减产落地、供应端收缩预期影响。 12月9日，九家多晶硅龙头企业联合中国光伏行业协会，在京注册成立平台公司"北京光和谦成科技有限 责任公司"。公司注册资本30亿元，法定代表人为侯一聪。 公司被业内视为多晶硅产能整合与战略收储 的"国家级操作平台"。同时，据SMM统计，多家多晶企业主动下调 12 月排产计划：硅料环节环比下降 约 10%，硅片环节下降 15-16%，电池片环节下降约 14%。受消息面和基本面的共同作用影响，多晶硅 表现强势。 当前多晶硅主力合约技术上已突破关键阻力位，确立新的上升趋势，但短期涨幅过大，同时基本面依然 存在供大于求、库存高企的现状，因此存在回调风险。投资者宜采取回调买入策略，同时警惕高库存和 需求不及预期带来的风险。 风险提示：短期回调风险、基本面风险、行业自律实际落地不及预期风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to multiple factors, including supply contraction, rising costs, and policy expectations, rather than an increase in downstream demand [2][4][8] Group 1: Price Movements - Polysilicon futures reached a high of 61,235 CNY/ton on December 17, with a cumulative increase of 68% this year [1] - The current price of polysilicon N-type dense material is around 50 CNY/kg, while N-type re-investment material is approximately 51.5 CNY/kg [4] - The market is experiencing a disconnect between futures and spot prices, with spot prices remaining stable despite the rise in futures [4][8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic polysilicon production dropped to about 115,000 tons in November, a decrease of approximately 14% month-on-month, primarily due to proactive production cuts by leading companies during the dry season [2] - The average operating rate in the polysilicon industry has fallen to 40%, with many second and third-tier companies halting production [6] - High inventory levels exceeding 300,000 tons are putting pressure on the market, with weak demand from downstream sectors [6] Group 3: Market Expectations and Policies - A recent meeting among 11 leading manufacturers emphasized production control and price stabilization, reinforcing market expectations for industry self-discipline and the establishment of a storage platform [2][3] - The establishment of a capacity integration acquisition platform is seen as a second wave of market sentiment boost, although details remain unclear [3][7] - The market is closely monitoring the potential announcement of a "debt-for-equity" acquisition and flexible capacity plans, which could further influence sentiment [7][9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Current high premiums suggest strategies such as "selling futures and buying spot" or "registered warehouse delivery" to lock in basis profits [9] - Investors are advised to reduce leverage and implement strict stop-loss measures due to increased volatility in polysilicon futures [9]

中金公司：作为金融基础设施，银行已进入高质量发展阶段，过去一两年少数上市银行利润同比增速录 得二位数增长，高股息投资成为主要范式。银行端，关注股息率的高低以及确定性，高低取决于估值与 利润增速，确定性则聚焦资产质量与营收可持续性。基准情形下，继续看好银行股的绝对收益与相对收 益表现，资金主要源自配置需求，银行股的高股息标签愈发得到市场认可，与其他行业的最大特征在 于"量"。 消息面上 西安：到2027年全市生物医药产业规模达到400亿元 新华财经北京12月17日电 A股三大指数12月17日震荡走强，早盘持续整理，午后三大指数震荡上行，创 业板指大涨超3%。盘面上，算力硬件概念表现活跃，中瓷电子、环旭电子等多股涨停；金融股午后拉 升，华泰证券冲击涨停；锂电产业链走强，金圆股份4天2板，天际股份涨停；能源金属板块走强，盛新 锂能涨停，融捷股份涨超6%，天齐锂业、西藏矿业涨超5%。下跌方面，海南板块下挫，京粮控股、海 南瑞泽跌停；军工电子板块调整，银河电子、航天长峰触及跌停，天箭科技跌超6%。 截至收盘，沪指报3870.28点，涨幅1.19%，成交7668亿元；深证成指报13224.51点，涨幅2.40%，成交 1 ...

中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布多晶硅周评，据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅n型复投料成交价格区间 为4.9-5.5万元／吨，成交均价为5.32万元／吨，环比持平。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为5.0-5.1万元／吨， 成交均价为5.05万元／吨，环比持平。 本周国内多晶硅市场呈现"成交清淡、报价探涨"的局面。本周市场成交极为清淡，主流签单企业数量进 一步减少，新签订单几乎停滞，但大多数多晶硅企业均将新单报价上调至约6.5万元／吨以上。硅料报 价上调的核心动力在于：业内普遍预期2026年一季度末终端需求有望好转，而1-2月份作为关键过渡 期，保持产业链价格体系和库存的稳定至关重要。此时上调报价，主要是向市场传递坚决稳价的信号， 为下游硅片、电池片环节的价格企稳提供底部支撑。 供应端整体保持稳定：目前在产多晶硅企业维持在11家，根据各企业排产计划，12月多晶硅产量预计仍 在12万吨以内。尽管个别企业检修复产带来小幅增量，但西南地区枯水期减产以及行业整体开工率维持 低位等因素限制了供应增量。预计2025年全年国内多晶硅产量在133万吨左右，其中前五家产量占比约 78%。需求端持续疲软：下游硅片、电池片及组件环节为应对高库存和终 ...

注1:此价格根据9家多晶硅生产企业的n型料、p型料产量占比,通过加权平均 整理所得(参与价格统计的9家企业2025年3季度产量占国内总产量的89.3%,n型用 料占比91.5%),均为含税价,涨跌幅度根据前一次价格比较所得。 国内太阳能级多晶硅价格(2025.12.17) | 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 用价 | 波动 | 波动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | n型复投料成交价 | 5.50 | 4.90 | 5.32 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | n型致密料成交价 | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.97 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | - | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2025-12-17 | 智通财经APP获悉，12月17日，硅业分会发布多晶硅周评。据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅n型复投料成交 价格区间为4.9-5.5万元/吨，成交均价为5.32万元/ ...

Core Insights - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a "sluggish transaction and rising quotes" situation, with most polysilicon companies raising new order quotes to around 65,000 yuan/ton, despite a significant drop in new orders [1][2] - The core motivation for the price increase is the expectation of improved terminal demand by the end of Q1 2026, making it crucial to maintain price stability and inventory during the transitional period of January-February [1][2] Market Conditions - The transaction price range for n-type recycled material is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1][3] - The supply side remains stable, with 11 polysilicon companies in production and an expected December output of no more than 120,000 tons, despite minor increases from some companies [2] - The overall production capacity is expected to reach approximately 1.33 million tons in 2025, with the top five companies accounting for about 78% of the total output [2] Demand Dynamics - The downstream sectors, including silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, are facing high inventory levels and slow project initiation, leading to increased production cuts [2] - The expected annual silicon wafer production is around 640 GW, corresponding to a silicon material demand of approximately 1.26 million tons [2] Inventory Trends - The current supply-demand imbalance is expected to lead to continued accumulation of polysilicon social inventory, with an estimated increase of about 70,000 tons for the year [2] - The prevailing high inventory and weak demand fundamentals have not changed, but a stronger consensus on price stability is currently influencing market sentiment [2]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].