Macro Highlights - The People's Bank of China supports qualified financial institutions in issuing financial bonds and credit asset-backed securities to enhance consumer credit supply capabilities [1] - As of the end of August, there are over 10,000 tax refund shops for outbound tourists in China, with a 248% year-on-year increase in the number of tax refund beneficiaries and a 98% increase in tax refund sales from January to August [1] - The National Medical Products Administration has decided to conduct a second phase of pilot work for personalized cosmetic services in certain regions starting from October 1, 2025 [1] Industry News - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch reports that the number of operating polysilicon enterprises remains at 10, with one undergoing maintenance expected to resume production in early October [3] - New mandatory national standards for polysilicon energy consumption will be implemented, potentially reducing effective domestic polysilicon capacity by approximately 16.4% by the end of 2024 [3] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology has established the Software Intelligence Committee to promote technological development and application innovation in the software industry [3] Company News - Ningde Times plans to achieve mass supply of sodium-ion passenger vehicle power batteries next year [6] - Zhongji Xuchuang reports a cumulative change in shareholding ratio exceeding 1% by specific shareholders [6] - Yuanfei Pet's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3.48% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a price increase due to tight supply and optimistic market sentiment influenced by national policies [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 51,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.57% week-on-week [1][3]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 49,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,500 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The number of main signing enterprises in the domestic polysilicon market has increased to six, while the signing volume remains stable compared to the previous week [1]. - A supply tightness is observed as first-tier enterprises have reached their sales limits, leading to second-tier enterprises starting to sign contracts [1][2]. Production Capacity and Standards - The number of operating polysilicon enterprises in China remains at ten, with one enterprise expected to resume normal production in early October [2]. - New mandatory national standards on energy consumption for polysilicon production will lead to a reduction in effective domestic polysilicon capacity to approximately 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 53490 | -180 多晶硅11-12价差 | -2585 | -60 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 126234 | -1545 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 44525 | -230 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 52500 | 950 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -1170 | 825 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 6.45 | 0.25 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8965 | 50 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197.89 | | | 品种现货价:工业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in multi-crystalline silicon prices indicates a tightening supply situation in the market, driven by limited sales capacity of leading companies and optimistic industry sentiment due to supportive national policies [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 51,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8.57% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 49,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 49,500 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [1] Market Dynamics - The signing volume in the domestic multi-crystalline silicon market remained stable compared to the previous week, but the number of mainstream signing companies increased to six [1] - The market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, as some leading companies have reached their sales limits, leading to increased transactions from second-tier companies [1] - The overall industry sentiment is optimistic regarding future market conditions, supported by recent national industrial policies [1]

人民财讯9月17日电，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会消息，截至本周，国内在产多晶硅企业数量维持 在10家，其中1家企业检修预计在9月底结束，并于10月初恢复正常生产。9月16日，国家标准化管理委 员会发布《硅多晶和锗单位产品能源消耗限额》等3项强制性国家标准（征求意见稿）。该标准正式实 施后，多晶硅单位产品能耗不达基准值要求（6.4kgce/kg）的企业将被限期整改，逾期未改或整改后未 达准入值（5.5kgce/kg）的企业将被关停。根据初步统计，现有产能结构有序调整后，国内多晶硅有效 产能将降至约240万吨/年，较2024年底下降16.4%，与已建成的装置产能相比减少31.4%。因此，随着能 耗新标的严格执行，多晶硅供需格局将得到实质性改善。 ...

格隆汇9月17日丨硅业分会：截至本周，国内在产多晶硅企业数量维持在10家，其中1家企业检修预计在 9月底结束，并于10月初恢复正常生产。9月16日，国家标准化管理委员会发布《硅多晶和锗单位产品能 源消耗限额》等3项强制性国家标准(征求意见稿)。该标准正式实施后，多晶硅单位产品能耗不达基准 值要求(6.4kgce/kg)的企业将被限期整改，逾期未改或整改后未达准入值(5.5kgce/kg)的企业将被关停。 根据初步统计，现有产能结构有序调整后，国内多晶硅有效产能将降至约240万吨/年，较2024年底下降 16.4%，与已建成的装置产能相比减少31.4%。因此，随着能耗新标的严格执行，多晶硅供需格局将得 到实质性改善。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a price increase, with n-type re-investment material prices rising by 8.57% week-on-week, and n-type granular silicon prices increasing by 3.13% [1][2]. - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is reported to be between 51,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton [1][3]. - The number of domestic polysilicon producers remains at 10, with one company expected to resume normal production in early October after maintenance [2]. Group 2 - A new mandatory national standard regarding energy consumption limits for polysilicon and germanium products has been released, which will enforce stricter energy consumption requirements for polysilicon producers [2]. - Following the implementation of the new energy consumption standards, the effective production capacity of domestic polysilicon is projected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the anticipated tightening of supply and the impact of national industrial policies, which is expected to support polysilicon prices [1][2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of polysilicon in China have shown an upward trend, with n-type raw material prices ranging from 51,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, averaging 53,200 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8.57% week-on-week [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is reported to be between 49,000 and 50,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 49,500 yuan per ton, which represents a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [1] - The domestic polysilicon market's order volume has remained stable compared to the previous week, but the number of mainstream signing companies has increased to six [1] Group 2 - The continuous rise in transaction prices is attributed to the fact that some leading companies have reached their sales limits, resulting in a tight supply situation in the short term, while second-tier companies are beginning to sign contracts [1] - Recent national industrial policies have influenced the industry, leading to a generally optimistic outlook for the market, which supports the price of silicon materials [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in the prices of polysilicon, particularly n-type materials, driven by supply constraints and optimistic market sentiment due to recent policy impacts [1][2]. - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 51,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.57% week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon is between 49,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,500 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [1]. Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers remains at 10, with one company expected to resume normal production in early October after maintenance [2]. - A new mandatory national standard regarding energy consumption for polysilicon production has been released, which, once implemented, will require companies to meet specific energy consumption benchmarks or face shutdowns [2]. - Following the implementation of the new energy consumption standards, the effective production capacity of domestic polysilicon is projected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024, and a 31.4% decrease compared to existing installed capacity [2]. Group 3 - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type re-investment materials are 55,000 and 51,000 yuan/ton respectively, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, indicating a price fluctuation of 0.42 and an increase of 8.57% [3]. - The n-type dense material transaction price has a highest price of 52,000 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 48,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,700 yuan/ton, reflecting a fluctuation of 0.40 and an increase of 8.75% [3]. - The transaction price for n-type granular silicon shows a fluctuation of 0.15 with a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [3]. Group 4 - The list of companies participating in the price statistics includes major players such as Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin's Energy Technology Co., Ltd. [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].