华泰证券研报指出，认为特变电工26年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有望充分受益于全球 高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，该行预计公司26-27年 具备较强的向上盈利弹性。首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价33.31元，对应26年PE 22X。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market is currently in a stalemate, with minimal transactions and a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment among market participants, leading to a significant slowdown in new order signings [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main polysilicon products have seen no transactions this week, with only a few small exploratory orders being placed [1] - Downstream purchasing intentions remain low, primarily focused on inventory digestion rather than restocking, despite some companies lowering prices to test the market [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is increasing uncertainty in production plans for silicon and battery companies, further suppressing short-term demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major companies have significantly reduced or halted production, leading to a continued contraction in polysilicon supply, which has somewhat alleviated supply-demand conflicts and weakened the incentive for companies to lower prices [1] - A leading company has fully suspended production, and two others have implemented production cuts, resulting in a projected 15% month-on-month decrease in polysilicon output for January [1] - The production plan for February indicates a further reduction in polysilicon output to 82,000-85,000 tons, continuing the trend of supply contraction [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - With the Chinese New Year approaching and the first quarter being a traditional off-season, domestic terminal demand and overseas component orders lack strong support [2] - High prices of auxiliary materials like silver paste continue to exert pressure on battery cell production costs [2] - Despite supply contraction providing some price support, high inventory levels remain unaddressed, continuing to suppress upward price movement [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is currently in a stalemate, with almost no significant transactions occurring this week due to prevailing market sentiment and low purchasing willingness from downstream buyers [1][2] - The demand side is constrained by high prices of key auxiliary materials like silver paste, which keeps battery production costs elevated, and insufficient overseas orders for modules, leading to a lack of purchasing intent [1][2] - On the supply side, major companies have significantly reduced or halted production, which has led to a continuous contraction in polysilicon supply, somewhat alleviating supply-demand conflicts and reducing the willingness of companies to lower prices [1][2] Group 2 - As of this week, one major company has completely halted production, and two others have implemented production cuts, resulting in an expected 15% month-on-month decrease in polysilicon output for January, aligning with the production schedules of silicon wafer companies [1] - The production plan for February indicates a further reduction in polysilicon output to 82,000 to 85,000 tons, continuing the trend of supply contraction [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year and the traditional off-season in the first quarter are expected to weaken domestic terminal demand and overseas module orders, while high prices of auxiliary materials will maintain cost pressures on battery cells [2]

当前多晶硅市场僵局持续，主要受供需两侧因素共同制约。需求方面，银浆等关 键辅材价格持续高位导致电池片生产成本居高不下，叠加组件端海外订单放量不 足，采购意愿低迷；同时春节临近加剧了硅片、电池企业开工计划的不确定性，进 一步抑制短期需求。供应方面，头部企业大幅减产或停产导致硅料供应持续收缩， 一定程度上缓和了供需矛盾，也削弱了企业主动降价的意愿。 截至本周，一家头部企业已全面停产，叠加另外两家企业减产落地，预计 1月份 多晶硅产量环比大幅减少15%，与同期硅片企业的排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度 显著放缓，供需弱平衡格局进一步巩固。从排产计划看，2月份多晶硅产量将进一步 下调至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 据安泰科统计， 本周多晶硅主流产品均无成交。观望情绪持续主导市场，全周几 乎无规模性成交，仅极个别企业达成小额试探性订单，新单签约量近乎停滞。尽管 部分企业为试探市场下调报价，但下游采购意愿持续低迷，以消化库存和僵持观望 为主，未因报价松动而启动补库，导致调价难以转化为实际成交。 | 3-1 M J 20 M T T T T T T T T + : | | | --- | --- | | 四川永 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The price is significantly supported by the double reduction in supply and demand, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and photovoltaic industry chain prices. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production reduction expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise slightly with small fluctuations. The recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for the photovoltaic industry may stimulate polysilicon rush exports in the short term. However, due to the still sluggish demand and huge inventory, the price increase momentum is limited. The market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and the downstream production capacity is accelerating the clearance [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On January 27, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-70) yuan/ton or (-0.78)% compared to the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the main contract 2605 was 242,625 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 26, 2026, was 13,115 lots, a change of 144 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang oxygenated 553 was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 22, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 556,000 tons, an increase of 0.18% compared to the previous week [1]. - The supply side showed a contraction trend, with the January output decreasing by nearly 20% month-on-month, and the industry operating rate dropping to a historical low [2]. - The demand side: The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 (0) yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax rebate policy is expected to increase the short-term demand for polysilicon, and the strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak-shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed a marginal weakening trend, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Polysilicon - On January 27, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and rose, opening at 51,990 yuan/ton and closing at 51,900 yuan/ton, a change of 0.42% in the closing price compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 41,439 (41,290 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 11,224 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N-type material was 48.00 - 57.00 (-1.50) yuan/kg, and the price of n-type granular silicon was 48.00 - 51.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 33.00, a change of 2.80% month-on-month, the silicon wafer inventory was 26.78GW, a change of 8.07% month-on-month, the weekly polysilicon output was 20,500.00 tons, a change of -4.65% month-on-month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.86GW, a change of 0.28% month-on-month [3]. - In terms of silicon wafers: The price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.30 (-0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N-type 210mm was 1.63 (-0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N-type 210R silicon wafers was 1.40 (-0.03) yuan/piece [3]. - In terms of battery cells: The price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W. The price of HJT210 half-cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [4][5]. - In terms of components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N-type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N-type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation. - Inter - period: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short-term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight oscillatory rise in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].

铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡走弱，国内现货精炼铜进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，美国政府在1月 底前发生新一轮停摆的概率走高，进一步影响市场对美国政经稳定的信心；有消息指出美国被曝向以色 列通报对伊朗行动准备进展，美军队在伊朗周边的布局令市场感到地缘政治或再起波澜；周四凌晨将公 布美联储新一轮利率决策，按兵不动概率较大。库存方面，LME库存增加1825吨至172350吨；Comex库 存增加2921吨至516070吨；SHFE铜仓单下降406吨144908吨，BC铜下降25吨至11141吨。近期地缘政治 搅局下，影响市场对全球经济稳定性的信心，另外高铜价影响下，铜消费转弱，累库力度强于近两年， 这加大了产业内的分歧，也一度使得铜存在调整预期，但无从资金对有色追捧力度来看，仍维系着铜价 易涨难跌的行情。因此当前铜价逻辑已不能简单从基本面来去定价，更多的需从金融属性的角度去看， 整体仍以震荡偏多行情看待。策略上，建议维持逢低买入思路。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 隔夜LME镍跌1.91%报18235 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [7] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [8] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [79] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply disturbances of industrial silicon and the trend of demand contraction may increase inventory depletion, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate. For polysilicon, due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to be cautious. Lithium carbonate inventory has been substantially depleted, and the fundamentals support the price, which is expected to continue to be strong [7][8][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon (SI) Supply - The national weekly output is 7.62 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the number of open furnaces is 217, a week - on - week decrease of 4. The December output is 39.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the January production schedule is 37.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [7]. Demand - For polysilicon, the weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly output is 4.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61% [7]. Inventory - The explicit inventory is 51.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.86%. The industry inventory is 45.30 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 6.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.44% [7]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 8998 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%; the gross profit per ton is - 46 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The gross profit in the main producing areas is basically stable [7]. Investment View - The price is expected to oscillate, and the unilateral trading is bearish [7]. Polysilicon (PS) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.40%. The December output is 11.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the January production schedule is 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [8]. Demand - The silicon wafer weekly output is 10.95GW, a week - on - week increase of 4.79%. The December silicon wafer output is 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 19.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%; the January production schedule is 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [8]. Inventory - The factory inventory is 32.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The registered warehouse receipts are 20550 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.22% [8]. Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 42969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton is 16241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan [8]. Investment View - Due to poor contract liquidity, investors are advised to wait and see and be cautious about price fluctuations and liquidity risks [8]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) Supply - The national weekly output is 2.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.72%. The December output is 9.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the January production schedule is about 9.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [79]. Import - In December, the lithium carbonate import volume is 2.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The lithium concentrate import volume is 62.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.31% and a year - on - year increase of 30.22% [79]. Material Demand - For iron - lithium materials, the weekly output is 9.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The December output is 40.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17% and a year - on - year increase of 46.00%; the January production schedule is 36.34 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.03% and a year - on - year increase of 44.29%. For ternary materials, the weekly output is 1.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.88% [79]. Terminal Demand - In December, the new energy vehicle production is 171.80 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%; the sales volume is 171.00 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%. From January to November, the cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage is 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [79]. Inventory - The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The lithium salt factory inventory is 1.98 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 2.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.50% [79]. Cost and Profit - For lithium extraction from purchased ore, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 149738 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%; the production profit is 9003 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4467 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 154692 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.87%; the production profit is 7644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4163 yuan/ton [79]. Investment View - The price is expected to continue to be strong, and the unilateral trading is bullish [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, due to production cuts by Tongwei Co., Ltd. and GCL Technology, polysilicon production decreased in January and February, and inventory significantly accumulated. The spot price has dropped, and future prices are expected to decline further under high inventory and weak demand. The short - term futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. - For industrial silicon, downstream demand has weakened due to organic silicon and polysilicon production cuts. Although there are unconfirmed rumors of large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers, if they materialize, it will reverse the supply - demand situation in February. The futures price may fluctuate strongly in the short term and rise after actual production cuts. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: Tongwei Co., Ltd. stopped all polysilicon production, and GCL Technology cut production. In January, production dropped to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it fell below 85,000 tons. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers soared to 330,000 tons [4]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the spot market transactions increased, with a volume of nearly 30,000 tons in the second half of the week and a price range of 45 - 49 yuan/kg. The spot price has significantly decreased, and future prices may continue to fall, with a support level of 42 - 45 yuan/kg [4]. - **Futures Market**: With low trading volume and increased random fluctuations in the market, a short - term bearish view is recommended, with a reference price range of (45000, 52000). Attention should be paid to next week's important meetings [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a bearish view and participate cautiously due to low trading volume. There are no recommendations for arbitrage and options [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the weekly production of DMC decreased by 0.61% to 42,900 tons, polysilicon production decreased by 7.4% to 20,400 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3%. The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [6]. - **Trading Logic**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened due to production cuts in organic silicon and polysilicon. If the large - scale production cuts by major manufacturers are implemented, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons, reversing the supply - demand situation in February. The rumors of production cuts have boosted manufacturers' confidence in holding prices. In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate strongly, and it may rise after actual production cuts [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a reference price range of (8600, 9500). There are no recommendations for options and arbitrage [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, while the spot price changed little, and there was no large - scale hedging [10]. - **Downstream Demand**: The production of DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy was slightly adjusted. The weekly production of DMC was 42,900 tons, a decrease of 0.61%, and the weekly production of polysilicon was 20,400 tons, a decrease of 7.4%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 0.9 percentage points to 59.3% [13]. - **Production**: The weekly production of industrial silicon was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 2.78%. The total number of open furnaces decreased by 3 to 219. If major manufacturers implement production cuts, the monthly production will decrease by 60,000 - 70,000 tons [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon was 556,000 tons, an increase of 1000 tons. The inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 215,800 tons, an increase of 5600 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory was 234,300 tons, an increase of 1300 tons [25]. - **Product Prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon, DMC, and terminal products remained stable this week [30][34]. - **Intermediate Fundamental Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates was slightly adjusted [40]. - **Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data**: The price and operating rate of aluminum alloy increased slightly [44]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The raw material prices of industrial silicon remained stable this week [48]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Product Prices**: This week, the prices of some polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, while the prices of batteries and components increased. For example, the average price of N - type dense material decreased by 2.02% compared to the previous weekend [52]. - **Component Fundamental Data**: From April 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic components will be cancelled, leading to potential export rush in January - March. The estimated production in January will increase to around 40GW. The European and domestic component inventories are at a moderately low level [60]. - **Battery Chip Fundamental Data**: The export tax rebate for photovoltaic batteries will be reduced and cancelled in 2027. The estimated production in January will increase to around 48GW [61]. - **Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer inventory has increased to 26.78GW. With the cancellation of the export tax rebate, there is still demand for export rush, and the estimated production in January may increase to 50GW [67]. - **Polysilicon Fundamental Data**: This week, the polysilicon production slightly decreased, and the factory inventory increased to 330,000 tons. In January, due to production cuts by GCL Technology and Tongwei Co., Ltd., the production decreased to around 90,000 tons, and in February, it will be reduced to 82,000 - 85,000 tons [72].