Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The supply side has a large number of new cotton flowers on the market, with a significant increase in production in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts all showed price declines. The trading volume of most contracts increased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13780, down 20, with a trading volume of 229,172 (an increase of 52245), and an open interest of 522,168 (a decrease of 21990) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15005 yuan/ton, up 69; the Cot A price was 74.95 cents/pound; the FC Index:M: arrival price was 74.07, down 0.09. The prices of some other spot products such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc. also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and yarn markets, there were changes in inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 30, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6145, down 60 [2]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: On December 3, 2025, the out - of - Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1940 yuan/ton·km, unchanged from the previous period. In October 2025, Japan's clothing imports remained at a high level, with the import value reaching 364.853 billion yen (equivalent to 2.418 billion US dollars), a year - on - year increase of 4.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.99%. On December 2, 2025, the machine - picked cotton purchase index in Xinjiang was 5.94 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day; the hand - picked cotton purchase index was 6.68 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be some selling and hedging pressure in the market. Although this year's cotton production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. After the peak season, the market has entered a relatively off - season. Overall, the supply is abundant but the increase may be less than expected, and the demand is average, but previous negative factors have been reflected in the market, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly, while cotton yarn futures fluctuated weakly, with an overall bearish profit outlook. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders and mostly small orders. High - count yarns still had good sales. The all - cotton clothing grey fabric market was weak, and fabric mills were mainly focused on inventory reduction. The anti - down fabric in Nantong Home Textile Market in Jiangsu still had continuous sales, but the profit margin was lower than expected [8]. Options - **Option Contract Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, information such as the underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, etc. was provided. For example, the CF601C13400.CZC contract had a closing price of 183.00, a price increase rate of 71.0%, and an implied volatility of 6.7% [10]. - **Volatility and Strategy**: The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for options [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-02 2025-12-01 2025-11-28 2025-11-27 2025-11-26 热点资讯 1.国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是 优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。 2.磷酸铁锂行业正在发生一场集体提价行动，近期多家龙头企业已向客户发出明确的涨价通知。龙蟠科技工作人员称，近期行 业确实有相关涨价的行情，公司正与客户沟通涨价事由。 3.经合组织发布最新经济展望报告，今明两年，预计全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与 ...

研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 01 日 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13765 | 40 | 200,316 | -66349 | 546,943 | 1675 | | CF05合约 | 13725 | 40 | 118,427 | -3732 | 370,519 | 22949 | | CF09合约 | 13860 | 70 | 4,067 | -1026 | 13,609 | 1112 | | CY01合约 | 20045 | -45 | 4978 | -8693 | 6543 | -1364 | | CY05合约 | 20040 | 60 | 60 | 55 | 46 | 6 | | CY09合约 | 20095 | -30 | 2 | -8 | 7 | 0 | | | | ...

品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.66 64.95 64.42 64.71 0.15% 【棉花市场消息速递】 北京时间12月1日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格区间震荡，今日开盘报64.70美分/磅，现报 64.57美分/磅，跌幅0.25%，盘中最高触及64.82美分/磅，最低下探64.53美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 11月28日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 美国农业部：截至10月16日当周，美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口净销售为17.6万包，前一周为15.8万 包；2026/2027年度陆地棉净销售2.7万包，前一周为0万包；美国2025/2026年度陆地棉出口装船16万 包，前一周为13.9万包。 调研显示，截止至11月27日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加1.28%，总库存38.03万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓31.7万吨，同比减少22.87%，江苏地区张家港港口及周边仓库进口棉库存约 3.42万吨，其他港口库存约2.91万吨。 11月28日，全国3128皮棉到厂均价14896元/吨，涨80.00元/吨；全国32s纯棉纱环锭纺价格213 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: As the month - end approaches, the market focuses on export and production data. There is a risk of ending the rebound and falling again. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise and break through 8600 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean rises due to China's procurement, and CBOT豆油 may rise to 52 cents. However, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory may increase, so it has no short - term upward momentum [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply of pigs accelerates, and the demand support is limited. Pig prices are expected to be in a weak and volatile structure. The strategy of inter - month reverse spread can be held, and the sustainability of the contract's rebound needs attention [3]. Meal - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose. The one - price rises with the market, and the basis drops slightly. The market is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may fall after a short - term rise [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - Due to factors such as logistics in the Northeast and demand in North China, the price of corn at the grass - roots level remains firm. However, there is still a large amount of grain to be sold, so the upward space is limited [7]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The new sugar in Guangxi is on the market, and the market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern at the bottom this week [11]. Cotton - ICE US cotton futures are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. US cotton export sales data shows a decline. Domestically, Zheng cotton faces hedging pressure, but the basis is firm and demand has resilience, so the cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have fallen below the feed cost line, and the decline space is limited. The market is clearing inventory, demand is recovering, and egg futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On November 27, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8560 yuan, up 1.18%; the futures price of Y2601 was 8224 yuan, up 0.91%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8390 yuan, up 1.21%; the futures price of P2601 was 8558 yuan, up 1.04%. The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10110 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 222, up 11.00%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was - 62, down 6.90%; the rapeseed oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) was 233, down 16.49% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was - 225 yuan/ton, down 60.71%. The price of LH2605 was 11990 yuan, down 0.58%; the price of LH2601 was 11585 yuan, up 0.39% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan was 11360 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 206827, up 0.47%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.28 yuan/kg, down 0.76% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3030 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3055 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis of M2601 was - 25 yuan, down 266.67% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, up 1.23%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2469 yuan, up 1.23% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of C2601 was 2243 yuan, up 0.36%. The import profit was 419 yuan, up 0.93%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 721, down 32.43% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2572 yuan, up 0.82%. The basis was 18 yuan, down 53.85% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of SR2601 was 5403 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The price of SR2605 was 5322 yuan, up 0.30%. ICE raw sugar rose 1.48% to 15.12 cents/pound [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 125 yuan, down 11.35% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production cumulative value was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The national sugar sales cumulative value was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of CF2605 was 13605 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The price of CF2601 was 13640 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 64.61 cents/pound [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14700 yuan/ton, up 0.69%. The CC Index of 3128B was 14891 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 363.97 million tons, up 24.2%. The industrial inventory was 93.14 million tons, up 4.9% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of JD12 was 2947 yuan/500KG, up 0.96%. The price of JD01 was 3282 yuan/500KG, up 1.77% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.98 yuan/jin, up 1.20%. The basis was - 303 yuan/500KG, down 7.71% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price was 2.80 yuan/feather, down 3.57%. The culled - chicken price was 3.88 yuan/jin, down 3.96% [15].

Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Date - The report date is November 28, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers are Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,891 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The quoted price for machine - picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) is around 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a delivered basis. Some lower - priced ones are in the range of 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. The lower basis for the same - quality spot is CF01 + 1000 - 1150, and the higher selling basis is CF01 + 1150 - 1350, with sporadic low prices below 1000. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton of Grade 41 (non - light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) in Northern Xinjiang is CF01 + 900 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has weakened, with fewer new orders. Downstream buyers are mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. High - count yarns have maintained a relatively good sales trend recently, with prices basically stable. The prices of other types of yarns have either remained stable or declined, with some manufacturers reducing prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [7] - The market for all - cotton garment greige fabrics has remained sluggish. The inventory level is still on the rise. For conventional varieties, due to poor demand, there is severe homogeneous competition, and some differentiated varieties also have low demand. In the export market, there is an obvious shortage of terminal orders, and the competition for orders among greige fabric mills is fierce [7] Operational Suggestions - Overseas markets have a time - lag in data. The easing of Sino - US relations has boosted a rebound, and they will mainly follow the domestic market in the short term. As of November 26, the cumulative inspection volume in China has reached 3.959 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous day. The number of market orders downstream has not changed much. The spinning mills' operating rates are maintained, and the downstream finished - product inventory pressure is not high. Spinning enterprises are making rigid - demand purchases of raw materials. With limited changes in the fundamentals and cost support, it is advisable to try long positions on dips and pay attention to the performance of the upper - level resistance [8] 2. Industry News - According to CFTC, as of the week ending October 14, the number of non - commercial long positions of funds in CFTC US cotton futures was 73,228 (+2,326), turning from a decrease to an increase; the number of short positions was 138,860 (+9,536), also turning from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE position was 294,187 (+15,248), increasing for the eighth consecutive week. The net - long ratio was - 22.3%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous period and a decrease of 18 percentage points year - on - year [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][21]

Group 1: International News - The U.S. delegation will visit Moscow next week, and President Putin reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the U.S. list for resolving the Ukraine issue as a basis for future negotiations. He stated that if Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from currently controlled areas, Russia will cease military actions; otherwise, military means will be employed to achieve objectives [1][6]. Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss promoting high-quality development and reviewed the provincial-level coordination of basic medical insurance. The meeting emphasized the need to enhance grassroots medical service capabilities [7]. Group 3: Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, sports venues, and commercial office facilities. The NDRC also highlighted the need to balance speed and bubble risks in the development of embodied intelligence industries, particularly humanoid robots [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices rose, with the previous trading day seeing a high followed by a pullback. The light industry manufacturing sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged. The market turnover was 1.72 trillion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 5.977 billion yuan to 24,522.65 billion yuan [2][11]. Group 5: Commodity Insights - In the coal market, the double焦 (coking coal and coke) futures showed weak performance, with total positions remaining stable. Steel production slightly increased, but overall inventory continued to decline, primarily driven by rebar. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron production [2][21]. Group 6: Oil Market Analysis - The SC night market for crude oil rose by 1.46%. There are mixed sentiments regarding the potential restart of peace talks in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries was 23.77 million barrels in October, a decrease of 180,000 barrels from September [3][14].