Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high cotton production in Xinjiang, low purchasing enthusiasm from ginneries, and general downstream demand [7][8][51]. - Globally, the cotton production and demand in the 2025/26 season have both increased, and the ending stocks have decreased slightly, presenting a relatively neutral outlook [13][51]. - For US cotton, the production is relatively stable, but the signing progress is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side saw a significant increase in cotton production compared to previous years, with a general purchase expectation of 6 - 6.4 yuan/kg, exerting hedging pressure on the market. The downstream demand was average, and the peak season was expected to remain at the current level. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [6][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to be average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side had high production, and the demand side was average. The US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 230,000 tons to 25.622 million tons compared to the previous month, with China increasing by 220,000 tons and India by 110,000 tons. The demand also increased, and the ending stocks decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 United States - The new US cotton has a good quality rate, but the signing progress is at a low level in the same period over the years. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 2.87 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. As of September 14, the cumulative signing volume was 901,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.96%. China's cumulative signing volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.96%, and the cumulative shipment was 0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100%. The drought situation has improved [16]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - In India, the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season decreased by 312,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was higher than normal. In Brazil, as of September 13, the cotton harvesting progress was 96.6%, and the processing progress was 36%. The new flower exports declined in the short term, and the quality indicators such as micronaire value and strength declined compared to last year [21][23]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 30,580 tons from the previous month. In August 2025, 72,700 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 585,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.7%. The domestic - foreign price difference was around 1,400 yuan/ton. - Demand side: The peak season demand was average, and the boost to the market was limited. As of mid - September, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory was 25.43 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.56 days. In August, domestic demand was average, and the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The textile and clothing exports were average. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.274 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%. - New crop: The national cotton planting area in 2025 was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, and the total output was adjusted up to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The market focus has shifted to the new cotton purchase price, and the purchase price is around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - International: The global cotton production and demand have increased, but are still at a medium level over the years, and the ending stocks have decreased. The US cotton production is relatively stable, but the demand is not optimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate [51]. - Domestic: In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [51]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful agricultural collaboration between China and Tajikistan, particularly in the cotton industry, showcasing the transformation of local cotton production through Chinese technology and investment [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The cotton yield in Tajikistan has significantly increased from approximately 100 kilograms per acre to over 400 kilograms due to the implementation of Chinese agricultural techniques [2]. - The establishment of the Dangara Agricultural Textile Industrial Park has created a full industrial chain from cotton planting to high-value product export, enhancing local employment and income [1][2]. Group 2: Local Impact - The local community has benefited from the industrial park, with residents expressing pride in their work and improved living standards, as well as the opportunity for professional training [2][3]. - Young locals, such as Kayumov, have found promising career prospects within the industrial park, reducing the need to migrate for work [2]. Group 3: Workforce Development - The workforce in the industrial park includes a significant proportion of women, who have transitioned from traditional roles to skilled positions in textile production [2][3]. - Workers like Daflatova and Kosimov have experienced personal and professional growth, acquiring new skills and achieving their career aspirations through training provided by Chinese experts [3].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural cooperation between China and Tajikistan, particularly in cotton production, has significantly improved local livelihoods and transformed the industry from raw material export to high-value product export [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The cotton yield in Tajikistan has increased from approximately 100 kilograms per mu to over 400 kilograms per mu due to the implementation of Chinese agricultural technology [2]. - The establishment of the Dangara Agricultural Textile Industrial Park has created a full industrial chain from cotton planting to garment production, enhancing local employment and income [1][2]. Group 2: Local Impact - Local residents, including young people, are benefiting from professional training and stable employment opportunities, reducing the need to migrate for work [2]. - The presence of the industrial park has fostered a sense of pride among local workers, who now view employment in the park as a prestigious opportunity [2][3]. Group 3: Skills Development - Workers in the industrial park are gaining valuable skills, with many transitioning from manual labor to technical roles, thanks to training provided by Chinese experts [3]. - The involvement of women in the workforce has increased, with many women now pursuing careers in textile and garment production, which was previously uncommon [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to expectations of a bumper harvest, while international cotton prices are facing downward pressure following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1] Supply Summary - The global cotton production outlook is optimistic, with the U.S. cotton harvest beginning and a ginning rate of 50% as of September 14, which is a 10 percentage point increase from the previous week but a 3 percentage point decrease from the same time last year [1] - India's cotton production is also expected to increase, with the Cotton Association of India predicting a total production of 5.53 to 5.78 million tons for the 2025/26 season, representing a growth of approximately 4% to 9% compared to the previous year [1] - In Australia, abundant rainfall has led to the completion of 85% of new cotton processing, with expectations that it will be fully completed by early October [1] Demand Summary - Recent cotton demand has been weak, with Brazil's cotton exports in August dropping to 77,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% [1] - As of the week ending September 11, U.S. cotton export contracts totaled 47,700 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative total of 254,600 tons for the year [1] - The export shipment volume was 27,900 tons, down 3,000 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative total of 187,500 tons for the year [1] Market Pressure - The global cotton market is experiencing increased supply pressure and weak demand, leading to downward pressure on international cotton prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, expecting short - term weak and volatile trends [5]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a historical low. Seasonal replenishment provides support at the bottom. It is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short - term, with support at around 13,500 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The 2025/26 US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast [5]. - **Demand**: The 2025/26 Chinese cotton consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish, but there are signs of marginal improvement in current downstream orders. As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%. As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 4,232, with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 169,700 tons (200,600 tons on September 12) [5]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,515 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall planting cost of self - owned land has decreased slightly. The cost of cotton planting on rented land is equivalent to a seed cotton price of 6.0 - 6.2 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 13,500 - 13,600 yuan/ton on the futures market. The overall average cost of ginning plants in the new year is expected to be 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton, and the opening purchase price is not expected to be high [5]. - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Retail sales in August showed strong growth, but tariffs and a weak employment market pose downward risks. The US consumer confidence index in September continued to decline, reaching the lowest level since May. On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In China, waiting for the Politburo meeting in October, domestic demand - side policies are continuously strengthening, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5]. 3.2 02 Week - on - Week Data Charts 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the global cotton production is 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and the total consumption is 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9]. 3.2.2 US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. Consumption is 370,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year [10]. 3.2.3 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast. Consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11]. 3.2.4 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO) - In 2025/26, the estimated production is 7.42 million tons, close to the general expectation of 7.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 34% year - on - year, different from the USDA's forecast of flat imports. Consumption is similar to the USDA data, showing a slight year - on - year decrease, not overly pessimistic. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 6.03% year - on - year [13]. Other Data - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: The new - year planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area and Xinjiang planting area show varying degrees of year - on - year increases, while the national and Xinjiang cotton yields show different degrees of year - on - year decreases [19]. - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: Cotton import volume is low, and spinning enterprises are looking forward to import quotas [21]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [27]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Chinese Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%, at a historical low [39].

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.01%. The price of the US cotton December contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.09%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased, with a decline of about 0.55% [5][11][22] - The US 2025/26 annual upland cotton net export signing volume increased, while the shipment volume decreased. The estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 is 721.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With new cotton being sparsely available and the downstream peak season not evident, the short-term support for cotton prices has weakened [5] - Operationally, the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract should be treated with a short-term bearish mindset. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [6][7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - As of September 9, 2025, the non-commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,171 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 121,505 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 51,334 lots, an increase of 3,122 lots from the previous week [11] US Cotton Export and Spot Price - As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 79.1 cents per pound, an increase of 1.25 cents per pound from the previous week [16] Futures Market - The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -19,591 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -477 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,232, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [28][34] Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,283 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,765 yuan per ton [42][53] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost and Profit - As of September 18, the import cotton sliding duty price was 14,305 yuan per ton, an increase of 129 yuan per ton from the previous week; the import cotton quota price was 13,527 yuan per ton, an increase of 208 yuan per ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton sliding duty was 1,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 105 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton quota was 1,783 yuan per ton, a decrease of 184 yuan per ton from the previous week [57][60] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.85% [63] - In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 66.67%. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, with no month-on-month change [70] Middle - End Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% [73] Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% [79] - As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.73%; the cumulative year-on-year increase was 2.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.45% [83] Group 4: Options and Stock Market Options Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not provided [84] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Tunhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (600359), but specific data is not provided [87]

Core Insights - The cotton harvest in Bortala, Xinjiang has commenced, with significant mechanization in the process, leading to efficient collection and packaging of cotton [1][2] - Farmers are experiencing higher yields this year, with estimates of 450 kilograms per acre and an increase of 30 to 40 kilograms per acre compared to last year [1][2] - The total area planted with cotton in Bortala this year is over 1.5 million acres, with expectations to complete the harvest by mid-October [3] Group 1 - The cotton harvesting process in Bortala is characterized by the use of large mechanized cotton pickers, referred to as "egg-laying machines," which enhance efficiency in harvesting and packaging [1] - Farmers like Wang Xiaofei have expanded their operations significantly, from 200 acres to 3,000 acres, benefiting from scientific management and mechanization [1] - Agricultural departments are actively providing technical support to ensure effective cotton harvesting, including pest control and machinery coordination [1] Group 2 - In Beilinharimodun Township, the cotton planting area is 117,000 acres out of a total cultivated area of 120,100 acres, with all harvesting being done mechanically [2] - The overall cotton growth this year is reported to be better than last year, contributing to increased productivity for farmers [2] - The cotton harvest in Bortala is expected to be completed by mid-October, indicating a well-planned agricultural cycle [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View The report tracks the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, and spot prices. It also provides macro and industry news, indicating that the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, and ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly. The trend strength of cotton is rated as neutral [1][2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,860 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.29%. CY2511 closed at 19,845 yuan/ton yesterday with a decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 19,935 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.45%. ICE cotton 12 was at 66.76 cents/pound with an increase of 0.03% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 208,414 lots, a decrease of 314 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 700,934 lots, a decrease of 2,806 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 10,916 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,486 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142, and the effective forecast was 0. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 90, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 85 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,127 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan compared with the previous day. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The price in Shandong was 15,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The price in Hebei was 15,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The 3128B index was 15,248 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish, the inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3.5 is CF01 + 1200 - 1350, and some are lower than this price, for inland self - pick - up. The sales basis of 2024/25 Beijiang Production and Construction Corps Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 1500 and above, for Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading of the pure - cotton yarn market is lukewarm, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream weaving mills make just - in - time purchases, and cotton yarn prices are mainly stable, with real orders negotiated. The all - cotton grey fabric market has little change. Weaving mills say that in - machine orders are being continuously produced, but the order volume has decreased year - on - year, and it is difficult to get follow - up orders. Grey fabric prices are negotiated according to the quantity [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first fell and then rose, continuing to fluctuate narrowly within the day. The USDA monthly supply and demand report basically met market expectations. The production of US cotton in the 25/26 season was slightly adjusted, and exports and ending stocks remained unchanged. In the global market, the beginning inventory, production, and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 25/26 season were mainly adjusted [1][2]. [Trend Strength] The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral rating. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].