Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Cotton prices fluctuate with market sentiment. The domestic cotton spot market has light trading, while the cotton yarn market has fair transactions and slightly rising prices. The cotton fabric market has slightly improved, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement. ICE cotton continues to decline, lacking upward momentum in the short term [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,390 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.19%, and CY2507 closed at 19,620 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%. ICE cotton 07 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.53%. The trading volume of CF2509 decreased by 35,159 lots to 245,332 lots, and the trading volume of CY2507 decreased by 1,999 lots to 4,054 lots [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,243 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan. The 3128B index was 14,577 yuan/ton, an increase of 53 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a 20 - yuan change compared to the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan change [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is still light, and most spot basis prices are stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang have different sales basis prices, and the cotton outbound freight by truck has little change [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The transaction of pure cotton yarn is fair, the price is slightly rising, the inventory of spinning mills has decreased, but the profit has deteriorated. The transaction of cotton fabric has slightly improved, some orders have returned, but overall orders are still insufficient, and export orders have limited improvement [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton continued to decline last Friday. The weather in the US cotton - growing areas is good, and the market is concerned about the progress of trade negotiations between the US and other countries. There is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3]. Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [5].

眼下，新疆生产建设兵团第七师胡杨河市170万亩棉花出苗显行，长势喜人。一片片绿油油的棉花苗， 仿佛给田野铺上了绿色的地毯，一派生机勃勃的景象。 为切实提高棉花种植质量，促进棉花增产增收，一二六团农业和林业草原中心工作人员和各连队"两 委"每天深入地头为种植户提供全方位的技术服务，特别是对早中耕、早封土、适时化学调控等方面进 行详细讲解，督促各连队开足马力、加快推进，将各项关键技术落实到位，为实现棉花"五月蕾"夯实 基础。 一二六团农业和林业草原中心技术人员黄北京说："目前，我们加快中耕封土进度，为下一步棉花出壮 苗打下良好的基础。" 今年，一二六团种植棉花13万亩，随着"早播、早管、早促"全链条举措落地，一二六团正以精细化春 耕为全年农业提质增效夯实基础。 一三〇团3连"两委"魏红光说："我们三连今年计划棉花种植面积是19157亩，目前，大部分棉田都是两 叶一心，可以达到一类苗状态。从5月1日开始，我们连每天投入12辆封土机，进行棉田封土，计划5月 15日全面结束。封土对棉花苗长势有保湿保温作用，可以促进棉花根系发展，避免出现大小苗情况， 也利于后面的化调工作开展。" 截至目前，一三〇团播种的29万余亩棉花已 ...

"干播湿出"技术，即在播种前棉田无需进行冬灌或春灌，直接整地后铺设地膜、滴灌带并播撒棉花种 子，待达到适宜出苗温度时，通过膜下滴灌的方式少量滴水，使膜下土壤墒情满足棉花种子的出苗需 求。 "干播湿出"技术已在多来提巴格乡广泛铺开，众多棉农从中获益，多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村的 种植户罗先群便是其中之一。随着棉花田间管理工作的稳步推进，她对自家310亩棉花的丰收满怀信 心。 种植户罗先群说："以前春灌费时费力，成本还高，自从用了'干播湿出'技术，不仅节水，出苗率还 高。" 5月9日，在新疆巴楚县多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村的棉田，绿油油的棉苗正茁壮成长，田间地头 处处洋溢着生机与希望。今年，巴楚县各乡镇大力推广"干播湿出"棉花种植管理技术，为棉花丰收筑 牢根基。 在推广"干播湿出"技术的过程中，多来提巴格乡积极引导棉农转变种植观念，提升科技意识。通过组 织现场观摩活动，让棉农直观感受新技术的优势，充分激发他们应用新技术的积极性与主动性。 如今，这一技术在多来提巴格乡吉格代力克巴格村应用成效显著。采用"干播湿出"技术后，每亩棉田 可节水约150立方米，极大提升了水资源利用效率。同时，凭借精准把控滴水时间与水量， ...

中新网乌鲁木齐5月6日电(陶拴科) "世界棉花看中国，中国棉花看新疆"的生动表述，深刻揭示了新疆在 全球棉花产业中的关键角色。棉花不仅是新疆农民的主要经济来源，更是推动区域经济发展的重要支柱 产业。 随着科技的进步与产业结构的优化，新疆棉花产业正以崭新的姿态，助力当地经济发展，为全国乃至全 球的棉花市场注入强劲动力。 新疆棉花产业正迎来发展新机遇，在政策护航、科技赋能、市场调节的三重驱动下，新疆棉田从"劳动 密集型"转向"技术密集型"。 统计数据显示，2024年，新疆棉花种植面积为3671.9万亩，较上年播种面积稳中有升，全程机械化率超 97%，机采率突破90%。种植成本由传统模式1800元/亩下降至"智慧棉田"的1300元/亩。 应对墒情差异打出"组合拳" 4月以来，随着气温回暖，土壤墒情好，新疆棉花播种工作自南向北迅速展开。 新疆北部的塔城地区乌苏市车排子镇康苏瓦特村通过多种方式，积极推广农业新机械与新技术在棉花播 种中的应用。该村党支部书记龚成江介绍说："今年，我们引入了侧封土播种技术，并采用5米宽的薄膜 进行播种，这种模式不仅节水效果显著，还能实现一膜4行和一膜6行的多行播种。此外，加宽的薄膜设 计有 ...

Group 1 - Xinjiang has achieved significant advancements in cotton planting, particularly with over 99% mechanization in sowing [1] - The success is attributed to high-standard farmland construction, land transfer, technological support, and increased policy support [1] - The integration of high-standard farmland and smart agricultural machinery has improved land utilization and facilitated mechanized sowing [3] Group 2 - In Yili County, the promotion of high-standard farmland has transformed fragmented land into larger, more organized fields, enhancing efficiency for mechanized sowing [3] - Local farmers, such as Kurban Abulait, have benefited from land transfer and machinery subsidies, leading to increased income, with earnings exceeding 300,000 yuan annually [3][5] - The establishment of new professional farmers through training programs is accelerating agricultural modernization [5] Group 3 - The Aksu region has also achieved full mechanization in cotton sowing, utilizing large intelligent sowing machines equipped with BeiDou navigation technology [5][6] - These machines significantly enhance sowing efficiency, allowing farmers to complete sowing of over 400 acres in a single day [6] - The Aksu region has deployed 9,700 advanced agricultural machines during the spring sowing period, improving both the speed and quality of cotton planting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in Yili County, Xinjiang is experiencing modernization through the adoption of technology and the cultivation of new professional farmers, leading to increased productivity and income for local farmers [1][2][3] Group 1: Technological Adoption - Over 1.1 million acres of cotton in Yili County are entering the sowing period, with young farmers utilizing smart agricultural machinery to enhance productivity [1] - The use of unmanned high-power cotton sowing machines equipped with Beidou navigation systems is being implemented, showcasing advancements in precision agriculture [1][2] - The cooperative employs various sowing techniques such as "dry sowing and wet emergence" and "precision sowing" to improve efficiency and reduce resource consumption [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - A farmer in Yili County reported an income increase to over 300,000 yuan annually due to the combination of land leasing and agricultural machinery rental [1] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Bazhou Qiangsheng Agricultural Cooperative has led to the leasing of 18,000 acres of land, providing additional income opportunities for local villagers [2] Group 3: Workforce Development - Yili County is focusing on creating a new generation of professional farmers who are knowledgeable in technology and management, aiming to attract and train young individuals in agriculture [2][3] - The local government is enhancing training programs and promoting the application of technology to cultivate a skilled workforce that can effectively manage modern agricultural practices [3]

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures have strengthened technically after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, with short - term support rising to 67 - 68 cents per pound. If there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, it may continue to rise [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, affected by weak demand expectations, market sentiment, supply - side factors, and some supportive factors. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.20 | 69.75 | 66.21 | 68.70 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 135914 | 42765 | 115919 | 1651 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 12895 | 13080 | 12760 | 12990 | 105 | 0.81 | 1001455 | 47202 | 572168 | 49946 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 18835 | 19165 | 18690 | 18935 | 95 | 0.50 | 23129 | 1504 | 22233 | 1138 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose by over 2% this week, mainly due to a sharp rise on Wednesday. The overall risk appetite in the financial market recovered, and there was no negative impact from the external market. Technical buying was triggered after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, and it didn't give back the gains despite unimpressive weekly export sales and weather data [1][6]. - As of the week ending April 17, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 23,600 tons, a 49% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 265,800 tons, an 8% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 66,300 tons, an 11% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.5521 million tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.7435 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual total contracts [7]. - In Brazil, the market was dull due to holidays. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton had been sold through primary channels, and less than 10% of the 2024 - season cotton remained in farmers' hands. The market was sluggish both domestically and for exports, and the raw cotton shipments in the first three weeks of April were expected to exceed 150,000 tons [8]. - In India, the market was also dull. The Cotton Corporation of India sold about 100,000 bales of cotton this week, reducing its inventory to 7.6 million bales. The season - to - date arrivals were 27.9 million bales, with daily arrivals of about 40,000 bales mainly from Maharashtra and Gujarat [8]. - In Pakistan, the new - season planting area was still uncertain. Sowing in Sindh had accelerated slightly due to improved water supply from snowmelt, but water shortages were still severe, with only 15% of the 630,000 - hectare target completed, compared to 33% at the same time last year. In Punjab, early sowing was more successful, with about 25% of the 1.416 million - hectare target completed. Import cotton demand slowed down this week. In March, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.17 billion, a slight increase from February and a nearly 12% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export value in the first nine months of this fiscal year was $11.2 billion, an 11% increase from the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [9]. - In Bangladesh, attention was on the negotiation results with the US, and trade frictions with India had increased. Cotton demand was stable this week, but there were also sporadic inquiries for more distant periods. In March, cotton imports were 147,086 tons, basically the same as last month and a slight year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of 2024 were 1.1 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [10]. - As of the week ending April 25, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - The domestic cotton market was dull. As of April 25, the spot trading continued to weaken, and the basis of high - quality cotton in northern Xinjiang decreased slightly, while the basis in southern Xinjiang remained stable. As of April 25, the registered cotton warrants were 10,555 lots, and the forecast warrants were 1,938 lots, totaling 12,493 lots, equivalent to 524,706 tons [11]. - The downstream market lacked confidence. The pure - cotton yarn market was approaching the traditional off - season, with reduced trading volume and weakening sentiment. The inventory of spinning enterprises increased, and some small factories in the inland limited production. The all - cotton grey fabric market was also weak, with weak orders, increased inventory, and some factories reducing their operating rates [12]. 3. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to have upward momentum if there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, with short - term support at 67 - 68 cents per pound [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16].