Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's (September 25, 2025) futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; copper futures will fluctuate with an upward bias; glass, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate strongly; gold futures will fluctuate weakly [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Index Futures**: On September 25, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. For IF2512, the resistance levels are 4545 and 4580 points, and the support levels are 4495 and 4455 points; for IH2512, the resistance levels are 2946 and 2955 points, and the support levels are 2923 and 2912 points; for IC2512, the resistance levels are 7200 and 7300 points, and the support levels are 7100 and 7035 points; for IM2512, the resistance levels are 7380 and 7459 points, and the support levels are 7245 and 7174 points [2][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract T2512 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate weakly, with support levels at 107.49 and 107.40 yuan, and resistance levels at 107.75 and 107.91 yuan [42]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contract TL2512 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range weak fluctuation, with support levels at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, and resistance levels at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [46]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: - **Gold Futures**: The main contract AU2512 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate weakly, with support levels at 852.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram, and resistance levels at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram [3][47]. - **Silver Futures**: The main contract AG2512 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 10300 and 10250 yuan/kg, and resistance levels at 10500 and 10550 yuan/kg [3][54]. - **Base Metal Futures**: - **Copper Futures**: The main contract CU2511 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate with an upward bias and attack the resistance levels of 83000 and 84000 yuan/ton, with support levels at 80700 and 80500 yuan/ton [3][58]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The main contract AL2511 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, with support levels at 20700 and 20650 yuan/ton [3][65]. - **Alumina Futures**: The main contract AO2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance levels at 2934 and 2963 yuan/ton, and support levels at 2900 and 2881 yuan/ton [3][69]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures**: The main contract SI2511 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 9100 and 9230 yuan/ton, and support levels at 8820 and 8700 yuan/ton [3][73]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The main contract PS2511 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 51600 and 52500 yuan/ton, and support levels at 49800 and 49300 yuan/ton [3][74]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The main contract LC2511 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support levels at 72000 and 71100 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 74100 and 75100 yuan/ton [4][76]. - **Ferrous Metal Futures**: - **Rebar Futures**: The main contract RB2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 3144 and 3123 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3185 and 3214 yuan/ton [4][83]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The main contract HC2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 3340 and 3327 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 3365 and 3380 yuan/ton [4][88]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The main contract I2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 800 and 796 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 808 and 811 yuan/ton [4][89]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: - **Coking Coal Futures**: The main contract JM2601 on September 25 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance levels at 1233 and 1246 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1217 and 1205 yuan/ton [5][95]. - **Glass Futures**: The main contract FG601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance levels at 1270 and 1281 yuan/ton, and support levels at 1237 and 1220 yuan/ton [5][98]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The main contract SA601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 1290 and 1271 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 1314 and 1333 yuan/ton [5][102]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The main contract SC2511 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, with support levels at 485 and 482 yuan/barrel [5][104]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The main contract FU2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 2900 and 2929 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2873 and 2860 yuan/ton [7][111]. - **PTA Futures**: The main contract TA601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 4666 and 4694 yuan/ton, with support levels at 4618 and 4600 yuan/ton [7][111]. - **PVC Futures**: The main contract V2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support levels at 4891 and 4868 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 4938 and 4960 yuan/ton [7][115]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The main contract M2601 on September 25 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack the resistance levels of 2983 and 2997 yuan/ton, with support levels at 2950 and 2938 yuan/ton [7][117]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic Macro - news**: - China's President Xi Jinping announced a new round of national independent contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit. By 2035, China aims to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% - 10% from the peak, increase the proportion of non - fossil energy consumption to over 30%, and achieve other climate - related goals [8]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative, stating that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations [8]. - Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, hoping that the EU will keep its trade and investment markets open [9]. - The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and a total net injection of 60 billion yuan in medium - term liquidity in September [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a round - table meeting for Chinese - funded enterprises in the US, emphasizing efforts to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation [10]. - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, proposing 14 tasks in four aspects [10]. - Nine departments issued 13 measures to support service exports [10]. - A new policy - based financial instrument with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is being established, and many places are in the project application stage [11]. - Alibaba announced a cooperation with NVIDIA at the 2025 Yunqi Conference and plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure [11]. - **International Macro - news**: - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU automobiles and parts since August 1, and exempting some EU products from tariffs since September 1 [12]. - US Treasury Secretary criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not having a clear agenda for interest - rate cuts and urged a 100 - 150 basis - point cut by the end of the year [12]. - The US government is negotiating with Lithium Americas to restructure a 2.3 billion - dollar energy - department loan [12]. - US new - home sales in August reached an annualized total of 800,000 units, a 20.5% month - on - month increase [12]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Exchange Policy Adjustments**: - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin standards and price - limit ranges of multiple futures contracts from September 29 [12]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratios and price - limit ranges of multiple futures contracts from the close of trading on September 29 [13]. - **International Futures Market Performance on September 24**: - International precious - metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% [13]. - International oil prices rose strongly, with US crude oil futures up 2.21% and Brent crude oil futures up 1.93% [13]. - London base metals all rose, with LME copper futures up 3.46% [14]. - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 86 basis points at 7.1219, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell 243 basis points [14][15]. - The US dollar index rose 0.65%, and most non - US currencies fell [15].

Core Insights - Pinghu City has cultivated a strong industrial base over the past decade, contributing significantly to the fashion women's down jacket market, electric children's car market, and luggage exports in China and globally [1][2] Industry Overview - Traditional industries such as down jackets, luggage, and children's cars now account for less than 10% of the city's industrial output, reflecting a significant decline from peak levels due to market shrinkage and economic expansion [2][3] - The local economy faces challenges from economic cycles, tariff fluctuations, and a declining birth rate, impacting demand for children's cars and putting pressure on the women's down jacket and luggage sectors [2][3] Market Performance - In 2024, the luggage sector in Pinghu is projected to see a 9.6% increase in export quantity but a 3.2% decrease in export value, indicating a challenging market environment [2] - The industrial output value for luggage enterprises in Pinghu is expected to decline by 6.7% to 3.908 billion yuan, with significant drops in added value and tax revenue [2] Transformation and Upgrading - Traditional industries are transitioning towards fashion and creative sectors, focusing on brand development and digitalization to enhance competitiveness [3][5] - The automotive and high-end manufacturing sectors are emerging as key growth areas, with Pinghu positioning itself as a significant player in the automotive parts industry [6][7] Investment and Development - Pinghu has attracted substantial investment, with 45 major projects signed at a recent investment promotion event, totaling 13.66 billion yuan, indicating ongoing confidence in the region's industrial potential [8] - The automotive industry in Pinghu has an annual output value exceeding 40 billion yuan, with a concentration of leading global automotive parts companies [7][10] Future Prospects - Pinghu's industrial output is projected to exceed 285 billion yuan in 2024, ranking it second among counties and cities in Zhejiang Province, with a GDP surpassing 100 billion yuan [9][10] - The city is expected to benefit from national strategies and infrastructure developments, enhancing its integration with the Shanghai metropolitan area [10]

Core Insights - In 2024, Pinghu's industrial output value ranks second among counties and cities in Zhejiang Province, reaching over 285 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Industrial Development - The signing of 71 projects at the 2025 Pinghu Investment Cooperation Promotion Conference totals an investment of 16.2 billion yuan, covering high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and new materials [1] - Notable projects include two over 100 million USD projects and six projects with investments exceeding 1 billion yuan [1] - The humanoid robot core components project, with an investment of approximately 1.5 billion yuan, aligns with Pinghu's "3+3+3" modern industrial system [1] Group 2: Economic Integration - Pinghu is rapidly integrating into the Shanghai metropolitan area due to the accelerated development of the Huhang High-speed Railway and Huzha Hang Railway [1] - The city has established trade relations with over 180 countries and regions, attracting more than 1,300 foreign investment projects [1] - Pinghu has hosted 52 Fortune Global 500 companies and has ranked among the top ten in Zhejiang Province for foreign investment for 25 consecutive years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The research results on the high-quality development index of small and medium-sized cities in China for 2025 highlight Changsha County's strong performance, ranking fifth among the top 100 counties and cities in terms of comprehensive strength, solidifying its leading position in Central and Western China [1][2]. Economic Performance - Changsha County's GDP surpassed 100 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%. Fixed asset investment increased by 4.4%, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 13.1% [3][4]. - In the first eight months of 2024, the county completed fixed asset investments totaling 589.8 billion yuan, indicating robust economic resilience [3]. Industrial Development - The county attracted 201 new projects in the first half of 2024, with a total investment of 763.7 billion yuan, exceeding the "double over half" target [4]. - The engineering machinery industry in Changsha County achieved a cumulative export of 99.93 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 47.7% [7]. - The county is actively promoting the development of the new energy vehicle industry, with production increasing by 49.3%, accounting for 55% of total vehicle production [7]. Innovation and Technology - Changsha County has established 406 innovation platforms, including 12 national-level and 237 provincial-level platforms, supporting industrial upgrades [15][16]. - The county's R&D expenditure intensity reached 3.08% in 2024, reflecting a strong commitment to technological innovation [16]. - The number of high-tech enterprises increased to 1,347, contributing to a vibrant innovation ecosystem [17]. Environmental Sustainability - As of June 30, 2024, the air quality in Changsha County had an excellent rate of 90.1%, with water quality standards consistently met [18][20]. - The county has implemented comprehensive measures for pollution prevention, achieving significant improvements in environmental quality [20][21]. Business Environment - Changsha County has optimized its business environment, significantly reducing institutional transaction costs and enhancing service efficiency for enterprises [22][23]. - The county's government has introduced various reforms to streamline administrative processes, facilitating easier business operations [25].

Group 1 - UBS analysts indicate that the market has begun to price in a 12% probability of economic overheating, which is on the rise [1] - This trend may drive cyclical stocks higher and expand market breadth across various sectors [1] - The sectors most sensitive to the "overheating probability" include automotive and parts, durable goods and apparel, and diversified financials [1] Group 2 - The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 currently include software, media and entertainment, semiconductors, and equipment and banks, while household and personal care, chemicals, and packaging are underperforming [1] - The ranking of these sectors is based on the "R.E.V.S. scoring system," which considers economic cycles, corporate earnings, valuation levels, and market sentiment [1] - 26 out of 27 sectors show positive scores, indicating a signal of market breadth expansion and potential for lagging sectors to catch up [1] Group 3 - By 2026, the earnings gap between the "six tech giants" (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta) and other S&P 500 constituents is expected to normalize, reducing overall market earnings disparity [2] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is currently above 22, while excluding the "tech+" sector, the valuation is at 18.6, which is considered overvalued [2] - Factors such as stock buybacks and stable inflows from global pension savings plans are supporting current valuations despite concerns [2] Group 4 - The "thematic heat map" from UBS shows that the market crowding around the "seven giants" and AI-related investment themes is at a high level, yet remains reasonable due to their resilience in earnings expectations [3] - The highest-scoring stocks in the "R.E.V.S. scoring system" include Hasbro, Dayforce, Qualys, Steris, and MongoDB [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has signed an executive order to implement a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, effective as early as next week [1] - The executive order states that nearly all Japanese products entering the U.S. will be subject to a 15% baseline tariff, with specific industries like automotive, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals receiving targeted treatment [1] - Japan is expected to provide market access opportunities for U.S. manufacturers in key sectors, including a plan to increase U.S. rice imports by 75% under a minimum import quota framework [1] Group 2 - Japan has agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S., with the investment content to be chosen by the U.S. government [2] - The perceived reduction of the "reciprocal tariff" from 25% to 15% is viewed as a psychological effect rather than a substantial concession, as the actual tariff on Japanese automobiles has increased significantly from 2.5% to 15% [2] - The investment memorandum signed by Japan does not fully reflect Japan's interests, indicating that further negotiations will be necessary for the Japanese government [2]

Core Points - The "Fast Track" program for professional title evaluation for private enterprises in Shenyang was launched on September 2, 2023, with the first session focusing on "Gazelle and Specialized New Small Giant Enterprises" [1] - A total of 233 technical professionals from 43 private enterprises, including Chip Source Micro, Tuojing, Fuchuang, and Sany Heavy Industry, participated in the title evaluation, with 98 applying for senior titles, 91 for intermediate titles, and 44 for junior titles [1] - The evaluation covers seven key industrial clusters, including automotive and components, high-end equipment, new materials, aerospace, energy conservation and environmental protection, integrated circuits, and new generation information technology, with a concentration in high-end equipment, new materials, and integrated circuits [1] Industry Support Initiatives - Shenyang's Human Resources and Social Security Bureau collaborated with the Municipal High-tech Enterprise Association to conduct multiple rounds of research and policy promotion, organizing four policy interpretation sessions and three application guidance sessions [1] - The city has been deepening the reform of the professional title system to enhance support for the innovation and development of private enterprises, including establishing a senior title evaluation committee for the non-public sector and implementing a talent exception application policy [1] - In 2024, 210 individuals from 21 private technology enterprises in the city are expected to obtain professional titles through the "Fast Track" program [1] Future Plans - Shenyang plans to implement the "Three Special Actions" centered on "Evaluation Special Car, Service Special Session, and Through Line," aiming to serve 60 private technology enterprises by the end of the year [2] - The initiative aims to cultivate 500 outstanding technical professionals for key industrial clusters, continuously providing talent support for the high-quality development of "Gazelle" and "Small Giant" technology enterprises [2]

Core Points - Japan's manufacturing sector has experienced a significant decline in profits due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with overall regular profits dropping by 11.5% year-on-year for two consecutive quarters [1][4][7] - The non-manufacturing sector, particularly in tourism and services, has shown resilience with a profit increase of 6.6% compared to the previous year [3][4] Manufacturing Sector Impact - The manufacturing sector's regular profits fell sharply, particularly in the transportation machinery sector, which includes the automotive industry, with a decline of 29.7% [4][7] - Other affected industries include steel, which saw a profit drop of 48.2%, and metal products, which experienced a 36.6% decrease [4][7] - The overall regular profit for the manufacturing sector was recorded at 35.8338 trillion yen, marking a historical high for the quarter, but the decline in specific sectors overshadowed this achievement [3][4] Tariff Effects - U.S. tariffs imposed on imported automobiles and key components have significantly impacted Japanese exports, with tariffs on passenger cars rising from 2.5% to 27.5% [7][9] - The steel industry faced additional challenges as U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum products increased from 25% to 50%, leading to losses in the Japanese steel sector [7][8] - In July, Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 10.1% year-on-year, with automotive exports specifically declining by 28.4% [8][9] Company-Specific Impacts - Major Japanese automakers reported substantial profit losses due to U.S. tariffs, with Honda's net profit plummeting by 50.2% in the latest quarter [11] - Toyota estimated a loss of 450 billion yen in operating profit due to tariffs, with an expected total loss of 1.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year [11] - Other automakers, including Mazda, Nissan, Subaru, and Mitsubishi, also reported significant losses, prompting them to revise their profit forecasts downward [11]

Core Insights - The 15th China-Northeast Asia Expo concluded after five days, showcasing a significant number of exhibitors and innovative technologies [1][3] - The event attracted 20,733 guests from 45 countries and regions, with a total attendance of 120,000 visitors [1][5] Group 1: Event Overview - The expo emphasized "exhibition promotes trade, conference promotes investment," focusing on industry and project connections, and facilitating economic and cultural exchanges [3] - A total of 34 main and thematic activities were held, creating a multi-level and wide-ranging communication mechanism [3] Group 2: Exhibition Details - The expo featured a "display + experience" model with a "4+2" exhibition framework, covering a total area of 73,000 square meters and setting up 3,620 international standard booths [5] - 1,029 domestic and international exhibiting companies participated, including 24 Fortune Global 500 companies and 14 Chinese Fortune 500 companies [5] Group 3: Industry Highlights - The Modern Industry Pavilion showcased advancements in automotive, petrochemical, rail transit, satellite, carbon fiber, biopharmaceuticals, hydrogen energy, artificial intelligence, and low-altitude economy [7] - The Open Cooperation Pavilion highlighted trade, investment, infrastructure, energy, and technology cooperation achievements among Northeast Asian countries [7] Group 4: Consumer and Cultural Exhibits - The New Consumption and New Services Pavilion displayed the latest products in smart wearables, smart home technology, and cultural tourism products [7] - The International and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan Specialty Goods Pavilion featured 264 enterprises from 43 countries and regions, showcasing economic development, advantageous industries, and cultural tourism [9]

Group 1 - The EU plans to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide favorable treatment for various agricultural products, indicating a strategic move to enhance US export advantages [3][5] - The US has committed to reducing tariffs on automobiles and parts to 15% and implementing zero or near-zero tariffs on certain products, suggesting a temporary mutual benefit in US-EU relations [5][7] - The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products and $40 billion in US chips over the next three years, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [7] Group 2 - The EU's proposal has faced criticism from within Europe, particularly from the German machinery sector, which argues that it unfairly benefits US products while European industries face punitive tariffs [10] - India's economy is suffering due to increased US tariffs, with a projected GDP loss of about 1 percentage point, particularly affecting labor-intensive small and medium enterprises [12] - Canada has experienced a significant economic downturn, with a 1.6% annualized GDP decline and a 27% drop in exports, raising concerns about future economic stability [14] Group 3 - The short-term benefits of US tariffs include increased government revenue, but long-term effects may lead to higher production costs, reduced export volumes, and overall trade contraction [16] - The US inflation rate is rising, with the PCE price index increasing by 2.6% year-on-year, driven by higher service costs, indicating that tariffs are contributing to domestic inflationary pressures [18] - The current trade strategy may damage the US's international credibility and relationships with allies, potentially leading to a search for alternative trade partners by other nations [18]