Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% within the next six months [28]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the development of urban and rural resident income plans, which are expected to enhance the performance and valuation recovery of the consumer sector [3][9]. - The tourism sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with leading companies like Trip.com Group and Huazhu Hotels responding quickly to consumer demand [3]. - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a focus on companies that can adapt to market changes and integrate products, brands, and channels effectively [3]. - The sports and outdoor apparel sector is expected to benefit from policy support, presenting investment opportunities in leading brands with market share growth potential [3]. - The media sector should focus on niche markets related to consumer sentiment, which may provide opportunities for companies with strong performance certainty [3]. - In the food and beverage sector, leading companies are expected to maintain market share through effective brand management, particularly in high-end and mid-range liquor segments [3]. - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3]. Summary by Sections Social Services - The industry is evolving, with a focus on companies that actively respond to changing consumer demands, particularly in tourism and beauty sectors [3][8]. Macro Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and the implementation of consumption-boosting actions [9]. Industry Dynamics - Disney's investment in OpenAI and its strategy to control fan engagement through authorized channels reflects a significant trend in the media industry [10]. Food and Beverage - Alcohol - The majority of liquor companies reported a deeper decline in net profits in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [3][19]. - The high-end liquor segment remains resilient, with leading brands expected to enhance their market positions [3][20]. Food and Beverage - Consumer Goods - The snack segment, particularly konjac products, continues to show strong growth potential, while dairy companies may enter a profit recovery phase [3][25]. Home Appliances - The electric two-wheeler industry faced a significant decline in production and sales in November 2025, indicating challenges in consumer demand [26].

本周三大指数，上证指数跌0.34%，深证成指涨0.84%，创业板指涨2.74%。后市将如何发展？看看机构 怎么说。 中信证券：内外兼顾，寻求交集 招商证券：2025年中央经济工作会议如何指引A股？ 中央经济工作会议12 月10 日至11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议相对积极的表态。短期来 看，过去10 年间，会后7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近5 年， 社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、传媒这五个行业会后7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点 关注会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排。 申万宏源：宏观环境"还原" A股向上空间受限未变 春季行情是小级别行情的判断不变。光连接将Alpha 逻辑反映到位后（短期性价比指示行情仍有空 间），可能会有新的高位震荡波段。其他科技成长重点还是做超跌反弹机会。春季政策和产业主题活 跃，是主要的赚钱效应来源，其中关注商业航天、机器人。这次中央经济工作会议，和主题相关的线索 包括：海洋经济、服务对外开放、能源强国、北方防洪基建、好房子等等。另外基于供给侧逻辑的涨价 周期，在2026 年中PPI 由负转正预期掩护下，仍会有不错 ...

Market Review - Major indices showed mixed performance in the past five trading days (December 5 - December 11), with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up by 3.14% [1][5] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.12%, while the CSI 500 Index increased by 1.00% [1][5] - Trading volume increased, with a total of 9.30 trillion yuan traded, averaging 1.86 trillion yuan per day, an increase of 205.98 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [1][5] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, telecommunications, comprehensive, and defense industries saw the highest gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel industries experienced the largest declines [1][5] Economic Data - November exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year, significantly rebounding from October, influenced by multiple factors including a lower base, stable external demand, and the end of holiday disruptions [1][5] - Exports to the US saw a larger year-on-year decline, while exports to Japan, South Korea, and the EU experienced substantial rebounds, indicating a continued optimization of export structure [1][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year and fell by 0.1% month-on-month, primarily driven by food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, due to a lower base and supply-side disruptions [1][5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline mainly influenced by a higher base [1][5] Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party held a meeting to analyze and study economic work for 2026, maintaining a tone of "more proactive and effective" macro policies as emphasized in the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference [2][6] - Fiscal and monetary policies will continue to emphasize "more proactive" and "moderately loose" measures, with a focus on integrating existing and new policies [2][6] - The economic work for 2026 will focus on building a strong domestic market and cultivating new growth drivers among eight key areas, with more detailed plans to be revealed in the Central Economic Work Conference [2][6] Investment Strategy - The A-share market continues to exhibit a volatile characteristic, with positive signals from the Political Bureau meeting and confirmation of overseas liquidity easing due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3][7] - The market is expected to regain strength driven by policy support and liquidity expectations, although some funds may delay allocation as the year-end approaches [3][7] - Investors are advised to remain patient and refine their strategies around policy and technology themes while waiting for sentiment to improve [3][7] - Investment opportunities are identified in the following sectors: 1. TMT sector and robotics, driven by ongoing capital expansion from domestic and international cloud vendors, accelerated domestic substitution of computing power, and potential application-driven growth [3][7] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors, benefiting from high global demand for energy storage and ongoing solid-state battery industrialization [3][7] 3. Social services and resource products, with policy focus on structural adjustments and "anti-involution" creating competitive opportunities [3][7] - Additionally, the banking sector presents allocation opportunities due to a low interest rate environment and a shift in public fund holdings towards performance benchmarks [3][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the robust growth of emerging consumer goods, reflecting the new consumption concepts developed by the younger generation in the current social environment. Understanding this new consumption narrative is crucial for capturing the growth of new consumer companies [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong professionalism and innovation in the beauty and skincare sector, such as Mao Geping and Shangmei [4][15] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it recommends attention to leading brands in the ancient gold segment that are favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [4][15] - For trendy toys, companies with successful experience in IP creation and operation, like Pop Mart, are highlighted [4][15] - In the ready-to-drink tea segment, it advises focusing on strong brand power and extensive business coverage of leading tea brands like Mixue Group and Guming [4][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the rise primarily driven by food prices turning from decline to increase. The CPI's year-on-year growth rate expanded by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the highest level since March 2024 [4] - The report tracks the performance of the new consumption sector, noting a weekly decline of 1.64% in the beauty and personal care sector and a 0.21% decline in the retail sector from December 8 to December 12, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In October, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 6.3% year-on-year, cosmetics by 9.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 37.6% [11][17] - The report indicates that the retail sales of beverages rose by 7.1% year-on-year in October [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence and leveraging advantages to address challenges [1][9] Economic Work Focus Areas - **Domestic Demand**: Emphasis on building a strong domestic market through consumption initiatives, income increase plans, and investment stabilization [1][11] - **Innovation Drive**: Focus on fostering new growth drivers by enhancing education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international innovation centers [1][11] - **Reform and High-Quality Development**: Commitment to deepening reforms, including a unified market construction and addressing competitive practices [2][11] - **Opening Up**: Promotion of multi-field cooperation and gradual expansion of service sector openness, along with enhancing foreign investment mechanisms [2][11] - **Coordinated Development**: Efforts to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, ensuring stable prices for essential agricultural products [2][11] - **Green Transition**: Initiatives aimed at energy efficiency and carbon reduction across key industries [2][11] - **Public Welfare**: Focus on improving people's livelihoods through job stability and healthcare reforms [3][11] - **Risk Management**: Strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [3][11] Market Opportunities - **Technology and Manufacturing Exports**: Attention on sectors like semiconductor equipment, AI, and robotics, as well as traditional manufacturing exports [6][14] - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on industries with resource constraints and potential price increases, alongside sectors benefiting from policy adjustments [6][14] - **Consumer and Service Sector Upgrades**: Anticipation of a positive macroeconomic policy environment boosting consumer sectors, particularly in retail and food and beverage [6][14]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference indicates a relatively positive policy tone for the capital market in 2024, with a fiscal deficit rate potentially maintained at 4% and a focus on promoting economic stability and reasonable price recovery in monetary policy [1][2] - The conference emphasizes the need to address the decline in investment growth, with major projects expected to be a key focus for investment in 2024, particularly as it marks the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The conference highlights the importance of consumer demand, with plans to implement a rural resident income increase plan, although there may be limited expansion in funding support for new policies [1][2] Group 2 - Historical market performance shows that large-cap stocks tend to outperform in the week following the conference, with a consistent trend observed over the past five years [3][4] - Specific industries such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and electronics have a higher probability of rising in the week after the conference, while sectors like social services, public utilities, coal, and media have shown higher average excess returns over the past five years [6][11] - The focus on key industries mentioned in the conference often translates into increased policy support in the following year, with past examples including the emphasis on low-altitude economy in 2023 leading to significant policy developments in 2024 [11][12]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议如何指引 A 股？ ——中央经济工作会议点评 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议 相对积极的表态。短期来看，过去 10 年间，会后 7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。 行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近 5 年，社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、 传媒这五个行业会后 7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点关注 会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《如何理解 12 月政治局会 议？对资本市场意味着什么？ ———政策专题》2025-12-08 2、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 ...

投资策略 +-[Table_MainInfo]政策基调初步明晰，市场延续震荡特征 | | | ――A | | | 股市场投资策略周报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 严佩佩 | | SAC NO： S1150520110001 2025 年 12 | 分析师： | | | 月 | 日 | 11 | | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | [Table_Analysis] 证券分析师 | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | [Table_Aut hor] 严佩佩 |  | 市场回顾，近 5 个交易日（12 月 5 日-12 月 11 日），重要指数涨跌不一； | | | | | | | | 022-23839070 | | 其中，上证综指微幅收跌 0.06%，创业板指收涨 3.14%；风格层面，沪 | | | | | | | | SAC NO:S1150520110001 | 深 | 300 收涨 0.12%，中证 500 收涨 1.00%。成交量方面有所放量，两 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 汪雅航 市场分析 联储如期降息。宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，创2024年3月以来 最高；核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。11月PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上 涨，高基数下同比降幅扩大至2.2%。海外方面，美联储货币政策委员会会后公布，降息25个基点，将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。为维持银行体系流动性充足，自12月12日起启动每月约 400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径，将逐次会议依据数据决策。 股指探底回升。现货市场，A股三大指数探底回升，沪指跌0.23%收于3900.50点，创业板指跌0.02%。 行业方面，板块指数涨多跌少，房地产、商贸零售、社会服务、通信行业领涨，银行、电力设备、计算 机行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额继续回落至1.78万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道 指涨1.05%报48057.75 ...