金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：震荡调整；白银：关注技术层面是否继续突破 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：920-970元/克、13000-14000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升1.24%，伦敦银回升7.78%。金银比从前周的78.2回落至72.2，10年期TIPS回升至1.88%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.14%（2年期3.47%），美元指数录得98.98。 ◆ 本周白银价格涨势明显放缓，我们上周提及，白银基本面出现一些变化：白银TD递延费方向转为多付空，期货库存小有累库，期货价 格涨幅更大导致期现重回Contango。本周来看，期货库存继续累库，但TD递延费恢复至空付多，月间结构02周五重新回归Back结构。 周度价格表现上看，小时线在56.5附近位置撑住 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold prices showed volatility, initially breaking through $4250 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.42%, before retreating to below $4240 per ounce with a daily decrease of 0.09% [1] - New York silver performed weaker, falling below $57 per ounce with a daily decline of 2.95% [3] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - WTI crude oil prices significantly increased, surpassing the $60 per barrel mark with a daily rise of 1.79%, indicating a short-term improvement in supply and demand expectations in the energy market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The strong signal of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices due to the expected return of "cheap money" in yen, while the weak performance of some US economic and employment data and the dovish statements of some Fed officials have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [1] - The global supply - demand of platinum is expected to be tight in 2025 - 2026, but the expectation of the Fed's rate cut in December and the Bank of Japan's rate hike may lead to an adjustment in platinum prices [1] - The global supply - demand of palladium is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026, and similar to platinum, the Fed and Bank of Japan's policies may cause an adjustment in palladium prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Precious Metals Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 10.86 and a weekly change of 17.58; COMEX gold futures' closing price was 4265.00 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 8.60 and a weekly change of 188.30 [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13261.00 yuan/kg, with a daily change of 592.00 and a weekly change of 1129.00; COMEX silver futures' closing price was 58.45 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 1.37 and a weekly change of 8.10 [1] 3.2 Important Information - The contraction of the US ISM manufacturing PMI in November reached the largest in four months, with employment further contracting and prices rising [1] - The Bank of Japan's governor strongly hinted at an interest rate hike in December, aiming to raise the interest rate to 0.75% [1] 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Logic - **Gold and Silver**: The expected return of "cheap money" yen may lead to an adjustment in precious metal prices, while the Fed's possible rate cut in December provides support [1] - **Platinum**: Supply is disturbed by high mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment, while demand from multiple industries is expected to rise, but price adjustments may occur due to central bank policies [1] - **Palladium**: Supply may increase due to the global vehicle scrapping cycle, while demand from the automotive sector is expected to decline, and price adjustments may also be affected by central bank policies [1] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Platinum**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, or consider the arbitrage opportunity of "long platinum, short palladium". Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic platinum prices [1] - **Palladium**: Hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels. Pay attention to support and resistance levels for London and domestic palladium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The New York precious metals futures prices continue to rise, particularly silver, which surged over 2% due to a short squeeze effect, reaching a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - As of December 1, 2023, the February 2026 gold futures price increased by $8.6, closing at $4,265 per ounce, with a rise of 0.20% [1] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December and concerns over a slowing U.S. economy have pressured the dollar index, contributing to the strength of precious metals [1] - The market perceives an 87% probability of a rate cut in December, significantly influencing the recent surge in gold and silver prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators Impacting the Dollar - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, below market expectations, indicating economic activity weakness [2] - The dollar index decreased by 0.03% to 99.415, reflecting the impact of the weak economic data [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also supported the rise in precious metals [2] Group 3: Silver Market Specifics - Strong investment demand has tightened the supply of silver, with ETF holdings increasing by 9.5 million ounces last week [3] - COMEX silver inventories have dropped to an eight-month low, indicating a significant supply crunch [3] - On December 1, the March 2026 silver futures price rose by $1.365, closing at $58.450 per ounce, with an intraday high of $59.435 [3]

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 美白银交割风险再现，银价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡上行，国际金价再度站上4250美元/ 盎司，白银价格在上周五再创历史新高，国际银价因COMEX 白银交割风险上攻至57美元/盎司上方，再创历史新高， 国内白银价格也再创新高，站上13000元/千克。上周四国 内铂、钯期货上市首日波动剧烈，第二个交易日波动收窄。 ⚫ 近期，越来越多的美联储官员发布言论纷纷支持12月降 息。美联储主席选拔进入最后阶段，贝森特称，特朗普预 计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold showed a fluctuating upward trend, while silver broke through new highs. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 83.1 to 78.2, the 10-year TIPS rose to 1.79%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.02% (2-year 3.47%), and the US dollar index was 99.4. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver was recognized, and the new high of silver within the year was expected. The rhythm of silver next week is crucial, and it depends on whether there is an unexpected release of invisible inventory under the good macro - sentiment and fundamentals. Gold's game point lies in the new Fed Chairman candidate, with a lack of driving force at the end of the year [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread** - Gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 37.85 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 32.5 US dollars per ounce [8][9]. - Silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to - 0.688 US dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.705 US dollars per ounce [12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spread** - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 6.51 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was 58 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - **Inter - month Spread** - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 8.66 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 70 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [28]. - **Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost** - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold: The total cost was 28.17 yuan per gram [31]. - Buying December Shanghai gold and shorting June Shanghai gold: The total cost was - 7.76 yuan per gram [32]. - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver: The total cost was 26.54 yuan per kilogram [33]. - Buying December Shanghai silver and shorting June Shanghai silver: The total cost was 176.90 yuan per kilogram [34]. - **SGE Spot Deferred Fee Payment Direction** - Gold was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power; silver was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power [35]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 49.8% [37]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 159 tons to 14,207 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3% [39]. - Gold futures inventory increased by 0.45 tons to 90 tons, silver futures inventory increased by 39 tons to 558 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 10 tons to 715 tons [41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions** - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions** - Gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 6 tons [49]. - Silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 352 tons [51]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold - silver ratio dropped from 83 to 78.2 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates** - The 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.22%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.85% [56]. Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [61]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - Data on US PCE, core PCE, retail and food service sales were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [67][68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance** - Data on US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, labor participation rate, unemployment rate, average weekly working hours, and average hourly wage were presented, but no specific conclusions were drawn [70][71][72]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Fed Rate - cut Probability** - Not elaborated in detail in the content

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is trading steadily above $4150, with the core driver being the strong consolidation pattern before the December policy path is finalized. The overall situation is in a "strong consolidation - waiting for a catalyst" phase [1]. - The continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is the core factor for gold to maintain a narrow - range consolidation above $4150. Although the initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the US are generally strong, they do not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - If the December FOMC meeting continues the loose path, the gold price is expected to further break through $4200 and approach the previous high range again [3]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - Multiple US policymakers pointed out in public speeches that the slowdown in employment and the decline in inflation will continue to affect the policy direction, and they did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December [2]. - European economic officials said that the eurozone needs to speed up internal capital expenditure and industrial chain adjustment to reduce its structural dependence on external demand, and the EU is studying a new round of industrial and trade coordination plan [2]. - Ukraine and Russia have carried out multiple rounds of communication on border security and infrastructure protection, and Russia reiterated the need to establish a verifiable mechanism for security arrangements to promote subsequent discussions [2]. - As of the week ended November 22, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April this year; the number of continued claims was 1.96 million; the four - week average of initial claims dropped to 223,800 [2]. - In September, non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.9%, orders excluding transportation equipment increased by 0.6%, and orders excluding defense increased by 0.1%. The overall durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5%, with the previous value revised up to 3%, and multiple manufacturing sub - items continued to show signs of recovery [2]. 2. Price Logic - Gold maintains a narrow - range consolidation above $4150, mainly due to the continuous strengthening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The strength of initial jobless claims and durable goods orders does not change the market's judgment on the December interest rate cut. The weak rebound of the US dollar and the low - level long - term US Treasury yields keep the downward trend of real interest rates stable, providing a clearer medium - term support for gold. In the context of thin holiday liquidity, the market shows the characteristics of "weak pullback and strong support" [3]. - The stable ETF holdings and continuous central bank gold purchases form a solid bottom for the price. Although there is still short - term technical overbought pressure, the trend momentum is gradually accumulating [3]. 3. Outlook - The weekly range for London gold is maintained at [4030 - 4200], and for London silver at [50 - 55] [4]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices and sector indices. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [46]. - For the precious metals index on November 26, 2025, the current value is 3370.94, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 4.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 52.36% [47].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the mixed performance of precious metal futures prices at the New York close on November 24, with gold and silver showing gains while copper experienced a decline [1][2]. Group 2 - Spot gold increased by 1.8%, reaching $4138.26 per ounce, after dipping to a daily low of $4040.25 at 13:22 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.44%, closing at $4138.00 per ounce, with an intraday trading range of $4036.40 to $4138.20 [1][2]. - Spot silver saw a rise of 2.69%, priced at $51.3688 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 2.53%, closing at $51.175 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX copper futures fell by 0.25%, settling at $5.0025 per pound, reflecting a V-shaped trend since the European market opened [1][2]. - Spot platinum rose by 1.86%, priced at $1549.95 per ounce, and spot palladium increased by 0.90%, reaching $1392.89 per ounce [1][2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations, while silver's decline is catalyzed by its risk - asset attributes. The short - term "bottom - fishing" value of gold and silver exists, but it still awaits drivers and catalysts. Gold's current adjustment is considered a monthly - scale jump, and silver is expected to reach a new high this year based on domestic and foreign spot contradictions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread** - For gold, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to $1.479 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was $22.4 per ounce [9]. - For silver, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.329 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.285 per ounce [12]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread** - The domestic gold spot - futures price spread was - 4.26 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The domestic silver spot - futures price spread was 17 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. - **Inter - month Price Spread** - The gold inter - month price spread was 7.14 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver inter - month price spread was 63 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [27]. - **Cost of Long - Short Spread Arbitrage in Near - and Far - month Contracts** - For gold, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 27.93 yuan per gram for buying TD and short - selling Shanghai gold futures in one case, and - 7.43 yuan per gram in another case [30][31]. - For silver, the cost of buying TD and short - selling Shanghai silver futures in near - and far - month contracts was calculated, with a total cost of 24.97 yuan per kilogram for one case and 167.53 yuan per kilogram for another case [32][33]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange** - This week, the gold deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power, while the silver deferred fee was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [34]. - **Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 19 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.5% [36]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 465 tons to 14,329 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 32.8% [38]. - The gold futures inventory remained unchanged, the silver futures inventory decreased by 57 tons to 519 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 90 tons to 774 tons [41]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions in Gold and Silver** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position in COMEX gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net - long position in silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Positions** - The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 8.36 tons [49]. - The inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 39.5 tons [51]. - **Gold - to - Silver Ratio** - This week, the gold - to - silver ratio rose from 78.4 last week to 83 [54]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates** - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.6% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates** - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates returned, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [67]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance** - No specific summary content was provided in the text, but relevant data trends were presented in the figures [70]. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index** - No specific content was provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Rate Cuts** - No specific content was provided in the text.

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price Performance** - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Overseas Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spread**: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - **Inventory and Position Analysis** - **COMEX Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - **Futures and Exchange Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - **CFTC Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Position**: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].