Core Viewpoint - The performance of the stock market after the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts is heavily dependent on whether the economy enters a recession, with the unemployment rate being a key indicator for determining the economic trajectory [1][3]. Economic Conditions - Historical data shows that in the past fifty years, there have been seven instances where the Fed resumed rate cuts after a significant pause. Out of these, four were accompanied by economic recessions, while three saw continued economic expansion, leading to vastly different stock market performances [1][7]. - In scenarios without a recession, the MSCI World Index showed average performance increases of 1%, 2%, 8%, and 17% over 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months respectively after rate cuts. In contrast, during recessionary periods, the average performance was -2%, 2%, 0%, and 6% [7][10]. Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate is highlighted as a critical variable for distinguishing between recession and economic expansion. During recessions, the unemployment rate tends to rise for nearly a year after rate cuts, accumulating an increase of 2-3 percentage points. Conversely, in expanding economies, the unemployment rate only sees a slight increase before declining within a few quarters [3][14][17]. Market Expectations - Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, which is a significant factor driving market expectations for the Fed to resume rate cuts. Barclays economists predict that the Fed may lower the federal funds rate to 3.0% by the end of 2026 as the labor market slows [17]. Yield Curve and Sector Performance - The shape of the yield curve significantly influences sector performance. Historically, a flattening yield curve during bull markets is most favorable for the stock market, while cyclical sectors perform best during steepening phases in bear markets [6][20]. - In the absence of a recession, the yield curve tends to steepen moderately after rate cuts, while in recession scenarios, it initially steepens before flattening out, transitioning to a steepening phase again as the economy recovers [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 77,000, indicating a potential economic slowdown [1][7][28]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, the private sector added 38,000 jobs, also below the expected 78,000, while the government sector saw a decrease of 16,000 jobs [1][7]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most to job growth, adding 31,000 positions, while manufacturing and professional services sectors experienced declines [8][9]. - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.32%, with long-term unemployment (over 27 weeks) increasing by 385,000 year-on-year, indicating challenges in re-employment for certain demographics [3][12][13]. Group 2: Wage and Hour Data - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 3.9% in the previous month, suggesting a moderation in wage growth [3][16]. - The total payroll index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, indicating stable wage growth but with signs of slowing momentum [16][17]. - Average weekly hours remained unchanged at 34.2 hours, reflecting cautious hiring practices among employers [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current employment data suggests a typical post-cycle economic characteristic, with signs of a cooling labor market [4][18]. - Historical analysis indicates that significant negative shifts in non-farm payrolls often correlate with economic recessions, with a 67% success rate in predicting downturns [4][20]. - The Federal Reserve may consider interest rate cuts as a response to the weakening labor market, with market expectations indicating high probabilities for rate cuts in the coming months [5][6][28]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are high, with probabilities of 92%, 72.6%, and 67.9% for September, October, and December respectively [6][28]. - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.07%, and the dollar index has also retreated [6][28]. - Gold prices have risen significantly as a safe-haven asset, while U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with small-cap stocks outperforming [6][28].

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI increased from 50.1 in July to 52 in August, exceeding market expectations of 51, indicating economic expansion[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.1%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below the market expectation of 49, indicating a continued contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector slightly improved from 46.4 to 46.5, indicating ongoing weakness in the job market[2] - The price index for services decreased marginally from 69.9 to 69.2, but remains significantly high compared to the post-pandemic average[2] - If August's non-farm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts in September or October[1] Market Outlook - The new orders index in manufacturing surged from 47.1 to 51.4, marking the highest expansion rate since the beginning of the year[2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation risks to a more balanced assessment due to recent labor market data adjustments[2] - Further rate cuts are anticipated in December and potentially two more in the following year as economic growth stabilizes and inflation decreases[1]

Economic Overview - Mongolia's GDP reached 40.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 11.216 billion USD) in the first half of 2025, reflecting an increase of 3.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 918 million USD) and a growth rate of 5.6% year-on-year [1] Sector Performance - The service sector generated a value of 17.4 trillion tugrik (approximately 4.843 billion USD), with a year-on-year increase of 1.89 trillion tugrik (approximately 526 million USD), marking a growth of 12.2% [1] - The mining sector's output was 10.3 trillion tugrik (approximately 2.867 billion USD), experiencing a decline of 849.9 billion tugrik (approximately 237 million USD), which represents a decrease of 7.6% [1] - The agricultural and livestock sector produced 4.87 trillion tugrik (approximately 1.355 billion USD), showing a significant increase of 1.47 trillion tugrik (approximately 409 million USD), resulting in a growth of 43.5% [1] - The industrial and construction sector achieved a value of 3.69 trillion tugrik (approximately 1.027 billion USD), with a year-on-year increase of 544.9 billion tugrik (approximately 152 million USD), reflecting a growth of 17.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory scrutiny on lithium extraction rights in Qinghai reflects a tightening trend in industry oversight, emphasizing compliance in lithium resource development activities [1] Company Summary - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) confirmed that its mining operations are fully compliant with regulations and that its production and business operations are running stably [1]

Eurobattery Minerals (BAT) Update Summary Company Overview - Eurobattery Minerals is a Swedish mining company focused on battery sector metals with projects in Finland and Spain [2][3] - The company is listed on NGM in Sweden and Börse Stuttgart in Germany [2] Key Projects 1. **Tungsten San Juan Project (Spain)** - Located in Galicia, with a proven resource of 60,000 tons of ore at a rate of 1.3% tungsten [20] - Expected to start generating cash flow by the end of next year [4][23] - Has all necessary permits and licenses [5][12] - Offtake agreement with a subsidiary of the Sandvik Group, ensuring a buyer for the tungsten produced [43][44] 2. **Hautalampi Project (Finland)** - Contains over 4.5 million tons of nickel, copper, and cobalt [26] - Project lifespan estimated to be over 10 years [26] - Currently awaiting environmental permit approval [27] 3. **Corcel Project (Spain)** - Focused on nickel, copper, and cobalt but currently on hold [28] Investment Case Highlights - Short-term cash revenue potential from Tungsten San Juan [4] - New CRMA Act passed by the European Parliament, facilitating faster permitting processes for mining projects [6][12] - Significant increase in tungsten prices, up nearly 50% this year, currently over $500 per metric ton [7][39] - Diversification of projects with metals critical for various industries, including defense [8][9][11] Strategic Importance - The four metals (nickel, cobalt, copper, tungsten) are critical for the European Union, especially in light of geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [10][11] - Eurobattery Minerals aims to contribute to the EU's goal of self-sufficiency in critical materials [15][31] Future Outlook - Ambitious plans to complete the investment chain for Tungsten San Juan and finalize the feasibility study for Hautalampi within the next 12 months [48][49] - The company aims to transition from a junior mining company to a producer within a year [49][52] Management and Team - The management team has extensive industry experience, including expertise in permitting and geological knowledge [29][30] Conclusion - Eurobattery Minerals is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for critical metals in Europe, with projects ready to generate cash flow and a strong management team guiding the company towards its strategic goals [52]

Group 1 - The core industrial projects in Baotou City have shown significant progress, with a total investment of 439.4 billion yuan across 411 key projects, and 360 projects have resumed work, contributing to a strong momentum in industrial growth [1] - The "3+5" key industrial clusters are demonstrating a matrix effect, particularly the crystalline silicon photovoltaic industry, which has 40 out of 42 projects resumed, achieving an investment completion rate of 66.1% [1] - The rare earth industry has 63 out of 67 projects resumed, with an investment completion of 86 billion yuan, accounting for 53.6% of the annual planned investment [1] Group 2 - Five emerging industries are making steady progress, with the new energy heavy truck and supporting industries achieving a 65.8% investment completion rate across six projects [2] - The energy storage industry has 32 resumed projects with a total investment of 16 billion yuan, while the fluorine materials industry has two ongoing projects with 700 million yuan completed [2] - Traditional industries are also advancing, with 43 out of 54 projects in mining, consumer goods, and infrastructure resumed, achieving an investment completion rate of 54.2% [2] Group 3 - Industrial technological transformation projects have shown promising results, with 73 out of 87 projects above 5 million yuan resumed, achieving an investment completion of 3.25 billion yuan [3] - The investment completion rate for technological transformation projects in Qingshan District reached 78.7%, while Donghe District achieved an impressive 157.2% [3] Group 4 - Despite the progress, 51 projects have not resumed due to challenges such as funding shortages and insufficient orders [5] - Baotou City plans to focus on large projects with investments over 1 billion yuan and projects scheduled for completion in the second half of the year to enhance industrial economic development [5]

Export Performance - In Q2, South Korea's total export reached $175.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Large enterprises exported $113.4 billion, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, driven by a 10.1% rise in capital goods despite declines in raw materials and durable consumer goods [1] - Medium-sized enterprises saw exports grow by 3.7% to $32 billion, the highest since 2015, with notable increases in capital and consumer goods [1] - Small enterprises exported $29.2 billion, up 6.3% year-on-year, with growth across consumer goods, raw materials, and capital goods [1] - The semiconductor industry's recovery played a crucial role in boosting exports for large and medium-sized enterprises [1] Import Performance - South Korea's total imports in Q2 amounted to $154.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [2] - Large enterprises imported $90.2 billion, down 5.4% year-on-year, with reductions in raw materials and consumer goods but an increase in capital goods [2] - Medium-sized and small enterprises experienced import growth of 4.3% and 3.6%, respectively [2] - The number of importing companies reached a record high of 155,800, primarily driven by increased small-scale trade with China [2] - In terms of industry, mining and manufacturing sectors saw export growth, while wholesale and retail sectors declined; conversely, imports in wholesale and retail sectors increased, but mining manufacturing saw a decline [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 8.70 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company's production and sales volume slightly decreased year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton of steel significantly improved. This improvement is attributed to a greater decline in raw material prices compared to steel prices, alongside the company's ongoing cost control efforts and product structure optimization [3][13]. - The company reported a revenue of 151.37 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.879 billion CNY, an increase of 7.36% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 is maintained at 10.286 billion CNY and 12.147 billion CNY, respectively [13][16]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 313.423 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 2.7% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 10.286 billion CNY, a 39.7% increase compared to 2024 [5][15]. - The average selling price of steel in the first half of 2025 was 4,293 CNY per ton, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton of steel was 270.64 CNY, up 56.49% year-on-year [13][5]. Product Structure Optimization - The sales volume of differentiated products under the "2+2+N" strategy reached 16.58 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for approximately 66% of total sales [13][3]. - The company is expanding its high-grade silicon steel production capacity, with an expected addition of 738,000 tons per year of non-oriented silicon steel and 440,000 tons per year of oriented silicon steel [13][3]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a minimum annual dividend of 0.20 CNY per share from 2024 to 2026. In the first half of 2025, it plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.12 CNY per share, with a payout ratio of 52.58% [13][3].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Mining (00433) reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, primarily driven by increased sales of molybdenum concentrate and a recovery in mining operations [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of HKD 926 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 49% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 70.137 million, a turnaround from a loss of HKD 58.543 million in the same period last year [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.56 [1] Operational Highlights - The increase in revenue was mainly due to higher sales volumes of molybdenum concentrate [1] - The recovery of the mining business led to significant improvements in capacity and operational efficiency [1] - The stabilization of mining operations had a major positive impact on the overall performance of the group [1]