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热轧卷板市场周报:终端需求韧性较强,热卷期价震荡偏强-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils is expected to be oscillating upward, with strong technical support around 3300. The recommended trading range is 3300 - 3400. The macro - environment has the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising and tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment. The industry shows that hot - rolled coil production has increased, terminal demand is resilient, inventory has declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. Cost support has strengthened due to increased iron - water production boosting furnace - charge demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3364 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton (+10). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 325.14 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 22.97 million tons. - Apparent demand rose to 326.16 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 12.22 million tons. - Factory inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. Total inventory was 373.32 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 57.89 million tons. - The steel - mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week but a 54.11 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the weak US non - farm payrolls in August increased the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and Mexico planned to raise import tariffs. Domestically, multiple ministries announced work priorities to promote capacity management and support employment and foreign trade. - **Supply - and - demand aspect**: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory slightly declined, and apparent demand increased. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore prices were firm due to lower shipments and increased iron - water production. Coke prices were cut, but coking - coal futures were oscillating upward due to mine shutdowns and increased furnace - charge demand. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward, with strong support around 3300 and trading above MA10/MA20. The MACD showed a possible golden cross below the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the HC2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 3300 - 3400 range, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures price**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 31 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased. On September 12, the warehouse - receipt volume was 59441 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34382 tons, and the net short position was 102712 contracts, a decrease of 10791 contracts from last week [21]. - **Spot price**: Spot prices increased. On September 12, the spot price of Shanghai 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. The basis was 46 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions - **Raw - material prices**: On September 12, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 1 - 7, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. The global iron - ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a decrease of 800.6 million tons. The Australia - Brazil iron - ore shipment volume was 2329.6 million tons, a decrease of 572.5 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, iron - ore port inventory increased. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.40 million tons. The daily average port - clearance volume was 344.39 million tons, an increase of 14.06 million tons. On September 11, the steel - billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 128.95 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 11.82 million tons [39]. - **Coking - plant situation**: This week, the coking - plant capacity utilization rate increased to 75.58% (+2.97%), and coke inventory increased to 43.91 million tons (+3.2). The total coking - coal inventory decreased to 752.00 million tons (-28.95), and the available coking - coal days decreased to 10.6 days (-0.86) [43]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - **Steel production and trade**: In July 2025, national crude - steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude - steel production was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports were 951 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons, and imports were 50.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons [46]. - **Blast - furnace operation**: On September 11, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 325.14 million tons, an increase of 10.9 million tons from last week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83% on September 12, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points [48][50]. - **Inventory**: On September 11, the in - factory hot - rolled coil inventory was 80.88 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 292.44 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons. The total inventory was 373.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons [55]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - **Automobile and home - appliance industries**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to July, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 18345.54 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; household refrigerators were 5963.15 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; and household washing machines were 6812.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [58].
午报沪指小幅收红盘中再创阶段新高,有色金属、房地产板块联袂领涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 04:38
Market Overview - The market experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high during the session, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed slight declines [1][10] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 151.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Northern Copper and Shengda Resources hitting the daily limit [1][15] - The chip sector was active, with companies such as Chipone Technology and Demingli reaching their daily limits [2][22] - The real estate sector showed a rebound, with stocks like Rongsheng Development and Suning Universal also hitting the daily limit [1][5] Individual Stock Highlights - A total of 50 stocks hit the daily limit, with a sealing rate of 87%, and 17 stocks achieved consecutive limit-ups [1] - Notable stocks included Suning Universal and Qingshan Paper, both achieving four consecutive limit-ups [1][14] - In the storage chip sector, Demingli and other companies saw significant price increases, with Demingli rising by 10% [4][23] Global Metal Prices - On September 11, London Metal Exchange (LME) prices for aluminum, zinc, nickel, copper, lead, and tin all increased, with aluminum rising by 2.06% to $2,679.00 per ton [3][15] - Analysts attribute the rise in metal prices to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to increased demand for hard assets [3] Real Estate Policy Changes - Following adjustments in housing purchase restrictions in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the Shenzhen real estate market has also seen positive changes, with increased online consultations and property viewings [5][13] Semiconductor Developments - Kioxia announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop a new type of SSD that is nearly 100 times faster than traditional SSDs [5][22] - The storage chip sector is expected to remain active, with companies like Micron Technology anticipated to provide strong earnings guidance in their upcoming financial reports [4][22]
港股午评:恒指涨1.53%阶段新高,科技股强势有色金属股活跃!阿里巴巴涨6%,百度集团涨8%,京东、快手涨3%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-12 04:30
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened strongly with all three major indices reaching new highs, reflecting a bullish sentiment among investors. The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.53%, gaining nearly 400 points, and is expected to surpass the 26,500 mark. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a rise of 2.18% [2]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - Yuan Dai Xian Yuan (03377) surged by 16.34% - Country Garden (02007) increased by 9.68% - Shimao Group (00813) rose by 8.54% - Rongxin China (03301) gained 8.29% - CIFI Holdings (00884) saw an increase of 7.88% [3]. Sector Movements - Large technology stocks led the market rally, with Baidu rising by 8.54% and Alibaba increasing by nearly 6%. Other tech companies like NetEase, Tencent, JD.com, and Kuaishou also saw gains of around 3%. Additionally, copper stocks performed well, with Jiangxi Copper (600362) reaching a historical high with a nearly 9% increase. Real estate stocks also rallied, led by Oceanwide Holdings [4]. Weakness in Certain Sectors - Conversely, local consumer stocks in Hong Kong experienced declines, particularly in the Apple concept stocks, coal, oil, and photovoltaic sectors. Notably, Hong Teng Precision, which had surged nearly 13% the previous day, fell over 5%. Other companies like New Special Energy, China Shenhua (601088), and China Petroleum (601857) also saw declines [4].
港股午评:恒指大涨1.53%再刷阶段新高,科技股强势拉升,有色金属股普遍活跃
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-12 04:05
Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher with all three major indices reaching new highs, reflecting strong bullish sentiment among investors [1] - As of midday, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.6%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 2.18% [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks led the market rally, with Baidu rising nearly 9% due to reports of using self-developed chips for AI model training, and Alibaba increasing by 6% [1] - Other tech stocks such as NetEase, Tencent, JD.com, and Kuaishou saw gains of nearly 3%, while Xiaomi and Meituan also experienced upward movement [1] - The copper sector showed significant activity, with Jiangxi Copper Co. rising nearly 9% to reach a historical high, driven by a soft employment market and increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Domestic property stocks rallied, led by a surge in China Oceanwide Holdings, while steel stocks also saw upward movement, with Chongqing Iron & Steel rising approximately 7% [1] - Innovative drug concept stocks rebounded after a previous decline, along with gains in brain-computer interface stocks, heavy machinery stocks, mobile gaming stocks, building materials and cement stocks, paper industry stocks, and domestic insurance stocks [1] Underperforming Sectors - Hong Kong local consumer stocks declined, with Apple concept stocks, coal stocks, oil stocks, and photovoltaic stocks mostly underperforming [1] - Notably, Hongteng Precision, which surged nearly 13% the previous day, fell over 6%, while New Special Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation also experienced declines [1]
破净股同比大降六成
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-09-11 23:06
Group 1 - The number of low-priced stocks and stocks below net asset value in the A-share market has significantly decreased, with "1 yuan stocks" down to 2 and "2 yuan stocks" down to 28, an 80% drop compared to the same period last year [1] - As of September 11, the average stock price in the A-share market is 26.15 yuan, an increase of 11.83 yuan or 82.61% from 14.32 yuan at the start of the market rally on September 24 last year [1] - The number of stocks below net asset value has decreased to 292 from 814, a reduction of 522 stocks or 64.13% year-on-year, with most of these stocks concentrated in the steel, real estate, coal, transportation, and electric power industries [1] Group 2 - The top three companies with the highest net asset value discount are Meikailong, Jindi Group, and Minsheng Bank, with price-to-book ratios of 0.29, 0.34, and 0.35 respectively [2] - The average increase in stocks below net asset value from January 1 to September 11 is 6.91%, with the top three performers being Heimu Dan, Quzhou Development, and Hualing Steel, with increases of 74%, 58%, and 54% respectively [2] - Analysts suggest that low-priced and undervalued stocks in traditional industries may lack growth potential, while opportunities may exist in undervalued stocks in other sectors, particularly in stable growth and high dividend yield stocks in banking and electric power [2]
机器人上演“十八般武艺”,唐山成京津冀科技成果转化“承接地”
Bei Jing Ri Bao Ke Hu Duan· 2025-09-11 11:57
Core Insights - The article highlights the innovative vitality and development potential of the coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, particularly focusing on the robotics industry and shared manufacturing models [3][4]. Robotics Industry - The Tangshan Robot Exhibition and Experience Center spans approximately 4,600 square meters, showcasing over 130 exhibits from 50 participating companies, serving as a "one-stop" display and sales platform for industrial and special robots [3]. - The shared manufacturing factory, Baichuan Robot, provides comprehensive services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, effectively shortening R&D cycles by 15% and reducing unit costs by 8% [4]. Special Robots - Special robots are highlighted as a distinctive product of the coordinated development, with applications in various sectors such as firefighting, mining, and underwater operations [4][5]. - The integration of advanced technologies from Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan has led to the development of a bomb-proof intelligent inspection robot, showcasing the collaborative advantages of the three regions [5]. Steel Industry Transformation - Shougang Group's relocation from Beijing to Caofeidian represents a significant transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green development in the steel industry [5]. - The steel production process has been modernized, allowing operators to control the process via iPads, significantly reducing labor costs and improving safety and working conditions [5]. Logistics and Economic Development - The Shougang Caofeidian terminal has become the largest single terminal for steel water transportation in Hebei, facilitating efficient logistics and contributing to high-quality regional economic development [6]. - The collaboration between Shougang and Beijing University of Science and Technology has led to the development of high-performance automotive chassis steel, promoting domestic production capabilities [6]. Collaborative Innovation - The article emphasizes the synergy created by the integration of R&D resources from Beijing, manufacturing capabilities from Tianjin, and application scenarios from Hebei, positioning Tangshan as a key player in the intelligent manufacturing upgrade within the region [6].
“钢铁大亨”孙纪木举牌振德医疗,欲进军医疗健康赛道
Huan Qiu Lao Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 09:59
Core Viewpoint - Zhendemedical announced the transfer of 5% of its shares from its controlling shareholder to Sun Jimu for approximately 356 million yuan, with a share price set at 26.74 yuan [1][2] Group 1: Share Transfer Details - Zhejiang Zhendemedical and its action-in-concert party, Xuchang Garden, will transfer a total of 13.32 million shares, representing 5% of the company's total share capital [1] - After the transfer, Zhejiang Zhendemedical's shareholding will decrease to 144 million shares, maintaining a controlling stake of 54.20%, while Xuchang Garden will exit completely [1] - Sun Jimu will acquire 13.32 million shares, holding 5.00% of the company post-transfer [1] Group 2: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Zhendemedical's stock price surged to a limit-up, closing at 32.4 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 8.633 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Zhendemedical's main business includes the R&D, production, and sales of medical and health products, with a product line covering health protection, wound care, and home cleanliness [2] - The company reported fluctuating profitability, with revenues of 6.138 billion yuan in 2022, 4.127 billion yuan in 2023, and projected 4.264 billion yuan in 2024, alongside net profits of 680 million yuan, 198 million yuan, and 385 million yuan respectively [2] - In the first half of this year, Zhendemedical achieved revenue of 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.83%, while net profit decreased by 20.61% to 128 million yuan [2] Group 4: Profile of the Acquirer - Sun Jimu, referred to as a "steel tycoon," is the chairman of Hebei Xinhua United Metallurgical Holding Group, ranked 42nd in the 2025 China Private Enterprises 500 [3] - He appeared on the 2024 Hurun Global Rich List with a net worth of 24 billion yuan [3] - Sun Jimu has a history of investments in various companies, including Jin Gu shares and has been a significant shareholder in several listed companies [3]
瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250911
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract traded within a range. Mexico is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased after a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased significantly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is fairly resilient, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in apparent demand, but tariff disruptions have affected market investment sentiment. Technically, for the HC2601 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. Short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 1,323,310 lots, up 9,651 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 113,934 lots, down 7,049 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The HC Futures Exchange's daily warehouse receipt was 59,441 tons, up 34,382 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou it was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan. The market price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billets was 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2895 million tons, down 75,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2514 million tons, up 109,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 83.06%, up 2.79 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 808,800 tons, up 9,000 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.9244 million tons, down 19,200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units. The monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.2514 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 109,000 tons; the factory inventory was 808,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the social inventory was 2.9244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons; the total inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons; the apparent demand was 3.2616 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,000 tons. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs [2]
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250911
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the key points of next - stage work, promoting capacity governance in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote quality improvement and upgrading. They will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, market sentiment was low, terminal demand was average, the increase in short positions of mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price center shifted down. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,092.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the position volume was 2,000,701 lots, up 133,027 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 266,935 lots, down 65,611 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 251,365 tons, up 8,525 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 148.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 170.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 801.00 yuan/wet ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 4.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 7.58 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2895 million tons, down 28,000 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1193 million tons, down 67,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6663 million tons, down 47,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, up 185,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar in this period was 2.1193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,100 tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 185,700 tons; the total inventory was 6.5386 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons; the apparent demand was 1.9807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. As of September 10, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [2].
钢材产业期现日报-20250911
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 08:57
Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Steel prices are maintaining a weak trend, with the demand for steel remaining at a low level during the off - season and showing no signs of recovery. Steel inventories are accumulating at a low price level from August to September. There is an expectation that the demand will pick up during the peak season, and the inventory accumulation will slow down. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will mainly follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For trading, focus on the support levels of 3100 for the January contract of rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) all showed a downward trend, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton for most spot prices and 1 - 14 yuan/ton for futures contract prices [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained stable. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10. The profits of rebar in different regions showed different trends, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decline of 4.6%. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decline of 2.7%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, a rise of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, a rise of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, a rise of 2.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decline of 8.3%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decline of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable and volatile trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly declined from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is expected that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. The sharp decline in shipments is mainly due to the decline in Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, after the major events ended, the pig iron output will significantly increase this week, and the steel mills' restocking demand will increase. It is expected that both supply and demand will pick up this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has slightly increased, the cargo clearance volume has decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. In the future, due to the relatively high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to the production control situation of steel mills in the fourth quarter. For trading strategies, iron ore is still in a tight - balanced pattern, with a bullish view on the single - side volatility, and the range is between 780 - 830. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for different varieties has increased significantly, with an increase of 41.7 - 41.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.6%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3 - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap increased by 1.5 to 106.8, a rise of 1.4%, and the Jinshi 62% Fe increased by 2 to 107.7, a rise of 1.8% [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decline of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decline of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decline of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average cargo clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decline of 0.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decline of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decline of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, a rise of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decline of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1 to 21, a rise of 5.0% [3]. Report on the Coking Coal and Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weak. The coke futures showed a volatile rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first - round price cut of coke spot, it remained stable, and the port trade quotes followed the futures. In the future, as the coking profit improves and the production restrictions are lifted, the supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The coking coal price may continue to decline in September. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take profits on short positions for both coking coal and coke, with a neutral view on the volatility. The trading range for coke is 1550 - 1650, and for coking coal is 1070 - 1170. Reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage, and pay attention to the risks of large price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts (01, 05) decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 7 yuan/ton and the 05 contract decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 8 to 424, a decline of 1.9% [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts (01, 05) increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 05 contract increasing by 7 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 24 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price increased by 0.1 to 201, a rise of 0.1%. The Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 70 to 1560, a decline of 4.5%. The Guangzhou Port Australian steam coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 4.7 to 739, a decline of 0.64% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34%. The raw coal output decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decline of 5.0%, and the clean coal output decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decline of 5.74% [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decline of 4.74%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, a rise of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 66.5, a rise of 1.8%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 13.6 to 623.7, a rise of 2.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decline of 4.34%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decline of 2.04% [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8 [5].