1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of finished products are both in a downward phase during the off - season. The investment data remains weak, and domestic demand is poor. However, exports maintain strong resilience with the advantage of trading volume for price. The supply is in a production - reduction stage, with a rapid contraction in rebar production and a partial repair of supply - demand contradictions. The hot - rolled coil production is still relatively high, with slow inventory depletion and a weaker fundamental situation compared to rebar. During the recent production - reduction period, the profit per ton of steel may be restored. Operators are advised to be cautious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Rebar Futures**: On December 5, 2025, RB2605 closed at 3157 (down 18 from the previous day), RB2610 at 3192 (down 17), and RB2601 at 3137 (down 11). The spreads such as RB10 - RB01, RB05 - RB10 also changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract rebar disk profits were 16, 62, and 36 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous day [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 5, 2025, HC2605 closed at 3320 (down 15 from the previous day), HC2610 at 3329 (down 15), and HC2601 at 3312 (down 11). The spreads such as HC10 - HC01, HC05 - HC10 changed. The 05, 10, and 01 contract hot - rolled coil disk profits were - 71, - 51, and - 39 respectively, with corresponding changes [2] - **Night - Session Futures**: RB2601 closed at 3120, RB2605 at 3132, HC2601 at 3301, and HC2605 at 3304. The rebar 1 - 5 spread was - 12 yuan, the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread was - 3 yuan. The January contract coil - rebar spread was 181 yuan, and the May contract coil - rebar spread was 172 yuan [2] Spot Market - **Rebar Spot**: On December 5, 2025, the prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3240 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis had corresponding values [2] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in regions like Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Rigang changed. The cheapest delivery product was 3300 yuan, and the 05, 10, and 01 contract basis also had corresponding values [2] - **Other Spot Products**: The prices of products such as Tangshan billet, East China scrap steel, Lecong Magang cold - rolled steel, and Shanghai Magang cold - rolled steel remained stable or changed slightly. There were also changes in spot regional price differences and spot profits [2] Important Information - **Production Line Maintenance**: Last week, 25 production lines in steel mills in 15 provinces were under maintenance (14 more than the previous week), and 2 production lines were restarted (4 fewer than the previous week). The production affected by maintenance was 3.78 tons (5.25 tons more than the previous week), and it is expected to be 44.3 tons this week [2] - **Pollution Response**: Many places have launched emergency responses to heavy pollution weather. Luoyang launched an orange - level warning on December 7 at 17:00, Changsha launched a first - level response at 20:00 on December 7, and Cangzhou, Handan, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched first - level emergency responses at 12:00 on December 8 [2] - **Rebar Market Data**: From December 1 - 5, 2025, the national average rebar price was 3326 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.14%, the inventory was 503.81 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.21%, and the consumption was 216.98 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.81% [2] - **Commodity Transactions**: On December 5, the iron ore transactions at major national ports were 86.40 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%, and the construction steel transactions of 237 major trading companies were 8.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1% [2] - **Electric Arc Furnace Data**: Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 53.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.43 percentage points. The average start - up rate was 67.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] Long - Short Logic - The prices of some common carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei decreased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton over the weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. The prices of construction steel in major domestic markets were stable with a slight decline, and trading was light [2] Trading Strategy - No specific trading strategy was provided in the report

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月08日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大，市场对政策面预期增强，强预期 占主导。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约的期价震荡上行，创近一个月高点后回落，短线有望延续之前的震荡企稳回升态势 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，中线交易，逢低可少量加仓 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3157 | -18 | -0.57% | 47 | ...

Group 1 - The fire incident in Hong Kong's Tai Po district on November 26 has prompted significant charitable responses from various enterprises in Guangxi, with donations exceeding 63 million RMB collected for relief efforts [1][2] - Guangxi Automotive Group donated 1 million RMB to support fire rescue and post-disaster reconstruction, emphasizing its commitment to social responsibility and ongoing economic cooperation with Hong Kong [1] - Guangxi Shenglong Metallurgy Co., as the largest private enterprise in Guangxi, pledged 3 million RMB for fire relief, highlighting its core value of giving back to society [2] Group 2 - Guilin Bank donated 1.75 million RMB for emergency rescue and reconstruction efforts, reflecting its commitment to social responsibility and community support [2] - Nanning Jianing Water Group initiated a donation of 900,000 RMB, showcasing its long-term engagement in charitable activities, having contributed over 10 million RMB in the past decade [2][3] - Southern Nonferrous Group quickly mobilized to donate 3 million RMB through a "green channel" for cross-border donations, demonstrating efficient response capabilities [3] Group 3 - Companies like Guangxi Huanjiang Maonan Autonomous County Xinfang Mining Co. and Hezhou Huangyao Yunban Hotel Investment Co. also made significant donations, with the latter completing a 1 million RMB transfer in just 10 minutes [4] - The actions of these companies reflect a broader commitment to social responsibility and community support, with many expressing intentions to continue aiding Hong Kong during the recovery process [4]

Core Viewpoint - The annual review of the CSI Dividend Index has resulted in the removal of 20 constituent stocks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Baosteel, while adding 20 new stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Merchants Bank. The adjustments will take effect after the market closes on December 12 [1][2]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - The CSI Dividend Index has replaced exactly 20 constituent stocks, adhering to the rule that sample changes generally do not exceed 20% [2][3]. - In comparison, the CSI Low Volatility Dividend Index replaced 29 stocks, indicating a higher turnover rate than the CSI Dividend Index [3]. Group 2: Market Capitalization and Dividend Yield - The newly added stocks, including China Merchants Bank, Xiamen Bank, and Zheshang Bank, have a total market capitalization of approximately CNY 1.08 trillion, CNY 189.75 billion, and CNY 837.67 billion, respectively. In contrast, the removed Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has a market capitalization of about CNY 372 billion [3]. - The dividend yields for the newly added banks are notably higher, with China Merchants Bank at 4.63%, Xiamen Bank at 4.04%, and Zheshang Bank at 5.40%, compared to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's yield of only 3.32% [3][4]. Group 3: Dividend Payment Trends - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's dividend payout ratios for 2022-2024 are 18.4%, 25.7%, and 27.4%, respectively, which remain below the common industry benchmark of 30%, indicating a conservative dividend policy [4]. - The CSI Dividend Index has implemented three quarterly dividends this year and has a total of 14 dividends since its inception, with a cumulative dividend amount of CNY 3.65 per ten shares. The annual dividend ratios over the past five years have been consistently high, averaging around 4.5% [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank - As of the end of September, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's total assets reached CNY 9.892 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.55% [5]. - The bank reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 38.82 billion for the first three quarters, marking a 10.2% increase compared to the previous year [5][6]. - However, the bank's revenue growth has been weak, with a total operating income of CNY 132.28 billion, showing only a 1.9% increase year-on-year, which is significantly lower than the industry average [6].

Group 1 - Alibaba's major shareholders, including Hangzhou Haoyue, are reducing their stakes in YTO Express and Meikailong, with Meikailong's major shareholder planning to sell up to 130,641,979 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital, valued at approximately 345 million yuan [1] - YTO Express announced that Hangzhou Haoyue transferred 39.925 million shares between November 10 and November 27, 2025, accounting for 1.16% of the total share capital [1] Group 2 - Guizhou Bailing's actual controller, Jiang Wei, is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for insider trading and violations related to stock transfers, although this investigation does not affect the company's operations [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to address "involution" in the financial industry and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, advocating for better coordination between monetary policy and fiscal and industrial policies [4] Group 4 - FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China A50 Index, including the addition of Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, while removing Jiangsu Bank and SF Express, effective December 22, 2025 [6] Group 5 - In November, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China decreased by 7% year-on-year, totaling 2.263 million units, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching 1.354 million units [7] Group 6 - The London Metal Exchange reported a significant increase in copper delivery applications, with a rise of 50,575 tons, marking the largest increase since 2013 [8] Group 7 - Over 20 cities in China have suspended or adjusted their vehicle replacement subsidy programs as the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in national subsidies is being consumed [9] Group 8 - Li Auto launched its first AI smart glasses, Livis, priced at 1,999 yuan, with a government subsidy reducing the price to 1,699 yuan for orders placed by December 31 [10] Group 9 - Anyang Iron and Steel's subsidiary plans to apply for a trust loan of up to 600 million yuan, while Longbai Group has received approval for a 4 billion yuan technology innovation bond [12] Group 10 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has suspended trading of Daxian Education due to serious exaggeration of bank balances in its financial statements [13] Group 11 - Moore Threads is set to be listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on December 5, 2025 [14] Group 12 - High Energy Environment plans to apply for an initial public offering of H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy [15] - Wanlong Optoelectronics is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of control over Zhejiang Zhongkong Information Industry Co., with trading suspended [16] Group 13 - Baiwei Storage reported a reduction of 4.646 million shares by the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund II, decreasing its stake from 7.9033% to 6.9078% [17]

Group 1: Core View - Manganese silicon prices rebounded from a low level due to improved market sentiment, but the supply contraction at a high level is limited while the demand continues to weaken. The supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve, the industrial contradictions accumulate, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. The upward driving force of manganese silicon prices is not strong, and once the market logic returns to the industrial side, the prices will be under pressure again. A breakthrough requires the introduction of industrial clearance policies [5][58] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Movement - Since December, the futures and spot prices of manganese silicon have rebounded from a low level, especially the futures price. As of December 3, the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract reached a maximum of 5,786 yuan/ton, up nearly 200 yuan from the previous low. The spot price also increased, with a range of 20 - 90 yuan in the mainstream areas, and the basis weakened again [9] - The recent rapid rise in manganese silicon prices is a catch - up increase, mainly due to the low - level rebound of steel futures prices boosting the sentiment in the ferrous metal market. Since mid - November, the rebar futures price has been rising, and the 2601 contract has been relatively strong, with a cumulative increase of over 130 yuan from the low level [12] Group 3: Supply Situation - Manganese silicon production decreased in November 2025. The output was 848,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 66,900 tons or 7.31%, but still higher than the same period last year. Most regions saw a decline in production, with Yunnan having the largest reduction [17] - As of the week of November 28, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 38.09%, and the daily output was 27,825 tons, down 4.90% and 1,850 tons respectively from the end of last month. Although the operating rate is significantly lower than last year, the output is similar to the same period last year [19] - The factory inventory of manganese silicon has been rising at a high level. As of the week of November 28, the total factory inventory was 368,000 tons, an increase of 53,500 tons from the end of last month, hitting a new high. All regions saw inventory accumulation, with the main production areas having the largest increase [27] - In 2025, the planned production projects of manganese silicon totaled more than 3.5 million tons. After removing the replacement capacity, the actual new capacity was as high as 6.665 million tons, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged [33] Group 4: Demand Situation - Steel mill production weakened, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 81.09% and 87.98% respectively, down 0.66% and 0.63% from the end of last month. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 2.24%, and the demand for manganese silicon decreased by 2.22% [36] - The profitability of steel mills continued to deteriorate. As of the week of November 28, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 35.06%, a continuous decline since mid - August. The demand for raw materials such as manganese silicon was affected [37] - Steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory actively at the end of the year was not strong. The number of days of available manganese silicon inventory in November was 15.84 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 days. Most regions' inventory levels were higher than the same period last year [43] Group 5: Cost Situation - Due to the weak downward trend of manganese silicon prices, the losses of production enterprises increased. As of December 2, the production costs of manganese silicon in the northern and southern regions were 5,838 yuan/ton and 6,208 yuan/ton respectively. The losses per ton in the northern and southern regions were 312 yuan and 678 yuan respectively [46] - The cost support effect is weakening. Coke prices have increased, while port manganese ore prices have been stable. If production enterprises reduce production, the prices of related raw materials will be affected, and the cost will decline, which may drag down the manganese silicon price [49]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Real Estate Industry**: The real estate sector is supported by policies aimed at high-quality development, with state-owned enterprises (SOEs) expected to avoid significant losses. It is projected that real estate investment growth may decline to around 8 trillion yuan by 2025, with the contribution of real estate and its industrial chain to GDP dropping to 8-10% from a peak of approximately 30% [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Trends**: The construction industry is facing negative growth in investment, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments all declining. In October, new home sales fell by 30% year-on-year, and second-hand home sales dropped by 18% [1][4]. - **Future Projections**: The real estate sector's contribution to GDP is expected to decrease to about 4.2%, with a potential drop in investment to the 7 trillion yuan range if the fourth quarter sees significant declines [2][4]. - **Policy Support**: The emphasis on high-quality development suggests that a number of quality companies will emerge as market benchmarks over the next three to five years, particularly among SOEs [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - **Construction Sector**: It is advised to selectively invest in SOEs in the construction sector to capitalize on potential short-term policy boosts. Key companies to watch include: - **Planning and Design**: Huayang International, Shenzhen Ruijie - **EPC and General Contracting**: China State Construction, China Railway, China Railway Construction - **Construction**: Shanghai Construction, Honglu Steel Structure - **Completion**: Jintai Long, Jianghe Group [5][6]. - **Building Materials Sector**: The building materials industry is expected to show significant divergence by 2025, with some companies maintaining growth while others decline. Companies with unique growth advantages or low valuations and high dividend yields will be favored by the market [7][8]. Notable Companies in Consumer Building Materials - **Oriental Yuhong**: Growth driven by overseas markets, with improving gross margins due to raw material price declines [8]. - **Hankow Group**: Expected to maintain over 30% growth [8]. - **San Ke Shu**: Benefiting from rural revitalization and renovation markets [8]. - **Beijing New Materials, Rabbit Baby, and North New Materials**: Notable for their valuation or dividend advantages [8]. Glass Fiber and Cement Sectors - **Glass Fiber**: The sector is experiencing a split between high-end and low-end demand, with leading companies showing strong profitability. Recommended companies include China Jushi and China National Materials [9][10]. - **Cement**: The cement sector is expected to face limited demand elasticity, with supply-side restrictions anticipated to be implemented by the end of next year. Recommended companies include Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [10]. Steel Industry Outlook - **Steel Demand**: The steel industry is expected to see demand bottoming out, contingent on policy support. Recommended leading companies include Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and CITIC Special Steel [11][12]. Aluminum Industry Insights - **Aluminum Demand**: The aluminum sector is benefiting from increased demand due to renewable energy needs, with domestic production nearing capacity limits. Companies like Yunnan Aluminum are favored for long-term investments [13]. Coking Coal Market Analysis - **Coking Coal Trends**: The coking coal market is expected to recover from a poor first half of 2025, with prices anticipated to rise due to supply constraints and resource depletion. Recommended companies include North China Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has supply pressure easing but weak domestic demand, with the spot price relatively firm and the futures price continuing to rebound [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have expectations of downstream replenishment, with the coke price likely to maintain a rebound and the coking coal price likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have the futures price fluctuating, with the supply decreasing and the inventory slightly declining [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: Surface demand and production decline, inventory decreases, and the market continues to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand declines, production increases, inventory slowly decreases, and the pressure remains to be alleviated [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increase, domestic arrivals decline but remain high, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - Demand: Steel surface demand is low, iron water is in a production reduction trend, and the demand has room to weaken [3] - Market: The macro atmosphere is warm, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - Supply: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Demand: Downstream demand has resilience, but the steel mill's profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is strong [4] - Market: The price is expected to maintain a rebound [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreases [5] - Demand: Similar to coke [5] - Market: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory slowly accumulates [6] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds to a high level [6] - Market: The price fluctuates, and the manganese ore price rises [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply decreases, and inventory slightly declines [7] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds, export demand declines, and metal magnesium production increases [7] - Market: The price fluctuates, and there are expectations of cost reduction [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Taiwanese government has announced new anti-dumping taxes on mainland Chinese products, specifically beer and steel, which has led to immediate responses from Chinese maritime authorities, indicating escalating tensions in cross-strait relations [1][3][8]. Group 1: Tax Policy and Economic Impact - The new anti-dumping tax rates are set at 51.94% for mainland beer and between 16.10% and 20.15% for hot-rolled steel, marking the highest anti-dumping taxes in history for Taiwan [1][3]. - The tax policy will be retroactive to July 2025, and the decision to impose these taxes was influenced by local industries claiming that low-priced mainland products harmed their sales [3][5]. - Mainland beer brands under investigation include Budweiser and Tsingtao, while the steel products primarily involve hot-rolled steel coils essential for infrastructure and automotive industries [5][13]. Group 2: Political Context and Military Implications - The Taiwanese government, led by Lai Ching-te, is increasing its defense budget to 3.3% of GDP next year, with plans to raise it to 5% by 2030, citing military threats from mainland China [5][7]. - Lai's statements about military preparations by mainland China are seen as attempts to justify increased military spending and to rally domestic support against perceived external threats [7][11]. - The timing of the tax increase coincides with heightened military rhetoric, suggesting a strategy to consolidate internal support while aligning with U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific region [7][10]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market share of mainland beer in Taiwan has grown significantly, reaching 36% in Q1 2024, with imports valued at $125 million, indicating strong consumer preference despite potential price increases due to new taxes [13][15]. - The cost of locally produced steel is already 15%-20% higher than mainland prices, and the new taxes will further inflate costs for Taiwanese manufacturers, potentially leading to increased prices for consumers or reduced profit margins for businesses [13][15]. - The economic strain from these policies may lead to reduced public spending in essential services such as education and healthcare, impacting the general populace [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of rebar are weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate and strengthen, and it is advisable to consider buying call options [7][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3110 yuan/ton (+53 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3290 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [5]. - Rebar production decreased to 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), a year - on - year decrease of 21.8 million tons [5]. - Apparent demand declined to 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.59 million tons [5]. - Factory and social inventories continued to decline. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the market's expectation for the December meeting fluctuates between "interest rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of an interest rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission will govern enterprises' disorderly price competition [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% and an EAF steel开工率 of 69.13%. Downstream demand was average, with a decline in apparent demand but a continued decrease in inventory [7]. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the ore price remains strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract fluctuated and strengthened. The daily K - line broke through the MA60 moving average pressure upwards, and the lower moving averages were relatively dense with strong support [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the futures price fluctuated and strengthened. The RB2601 contract was stronger than the RB2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 59519 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5301 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 54221 lots, a decrease of 28612 lots from the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On November 28, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mmHRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the spot price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [35]. - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15901.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons [35]. 3.3.3 Coking Plant Data - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02% (+0.92%), coke daily output was 50.40 (+0.65), coke inventory was 45.21 (+1.77), total coking coal inventory was 860.93 (-28.29), and the available days of coking coal were 12.8 days (-0.6 days) [39]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Crude Steel Production**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [43]. - **Rebar Production**: On November 27, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 206.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and 21.8 million tons from the same period last year [45]. - **EAF Steel**: The average starting rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, unchanged from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 0.79 percentage points [48]. - **Rebar Inventory**: On November 27, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 146.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.59 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.48 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 384.75 million tons, a decrease of 15.27 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 82.36 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.86 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [51]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The housing construction area was 6529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [54]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway transportation investment increased by 3.0% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - Considering the decline in rebar production, the decrease in downstream demand, and the positive macro - expectations supporting steel prices, it is advisable to consider buying call options [57].