Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant rise in the A-share market, with various stocks showing notable gains, indicating a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [9][10]. Market Overview - As of June 23, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.16% [2]. - The total market turnover was 683.87 billion CNY, slightly lower than the previous day, with 3,657 stocks rising and 1,577 falling [3]. Sector Performance - The coal, petrochemical, defense, and non-ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while consumer stocks, including liquor and gaming, faced declines [3][4]. - The coal sector specifically saw stocks like Baotailong, Shaanxi Black Cat, and China Coal Energy among the top gainers [9]. Shipping and Port Sector - The port and shipping sectors collectively surged, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Ningbo Ocean reaching their daily limits [13]. - The global shipping market reacted to recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping rates [15]. Defense Sector - The defense and military sector also saw gains, with stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and Aerospace Development hitting their limits [10]. - The Ministry of National Security emphasized the importance of technological security in national security, which may bolster investments in the defense sector [10]. Key Stock Movements - Notable stock performances included Huahong Semiconductor rising by 7.02% and SMIC increasing by 4.94% [7]. - In the coal sector, Baotailong rose by 4.78%, while Shaanxi Black Cat increased by 4.40% [9].

Market Overview - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.16% and 0.33% respectively. Over 3,600 stocks in the market increased, while more than 1,500 stocks declined [1][2]. Sector Performance - The oil and gas, shipping, port, semiconductor, and military industries showed the highest gains, while sectors such as stablecoins, solid-state batteries continued to gain traction. Conversely, computing power, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and IP economy stocks weakened [2]. Capital Flow - Major capital inflows were observed in sectors including electronics, electrical equipment, basic chemicals, computers, machinery, and transportation. In contrast, there were net outflows from telecommunications, food and beverage, biomedicine, public utilities, steel, and building materials [3]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable net inflows were recorded for stocks such as SMIC, Jingfang Technology, and Northern Huachuang, with inflows of 648 million, 638 million, and 628 million respectively. On the other hand, stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hengbao Co., and Cambrian Technologies faced net outflows of 444 million, 262 million, and 192 million respectively [4][5]. Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a volatile upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of 2025, driven by a new round of supply-side reforms. The ongoing deepening of capital market reforms is expected to provide solid support for a stable foundation in the A-share market. The transformation of emerging industries and institutional innovation are seen as core drivers for market value reconstruction [7]. - Wang Zhangliang, a fund manager at Qianhai Rongyue Asset Management, noted that recent national policies have been unprecedented in their intensity. The acceleration of AI commercialization and the semiconductor industry's upward cycle present dual benefits. Focus is recommended on semiconductor equipment and materials, AI computing infrastructure, trusted computing industries, and humanoid robots [8].

6月23日，A股早盘震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一，半日成交额6706亿，较上个交易日缩量4.92亿。截至 午间收盘，沪指涨0.15%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板指跌0.33%。 消息面上，地缘局势继续升级，美国轰炸伊核设施，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡，原油一度涨近 6%。东方证券认为，整体来看，近期市场明显受到外部地缘政治利空扰动，但下跌幅度有限，显示场 内护盘力量实力不俗，预计短期市场仍将维持类似局面，市场或将转向科技成长风格。 盘面上，市场热点聚焦中东局势相关概念，其中，港口航运股卷土重来，宁波海运、连云港等多股涨 停；军工板块表现亮眼，长城军工斩获4连板；油气股持续走强，带动化工板块大面积补涨，兴化股份 走出7天3板，中毅达等多股涨停；核污染防治概念走高，中电环保涨超10%。其他热点方面，银行板块 探底回升，工行、农行、建行等多股续创历史新高；芯片股强势，大为股份等涨停；跨境支付概念拉 升，吉大正元涨停；此外，有色钴、固态电池等板块均有所表现。下跌方面，大消费、地产、汽车等方 向跌幅居前。 展望后市，国泰海通认为，短期风险释放后，中国股市的核心矛盾仍在内而不在外，对行情的看法仍比 共识更乐观。 热门板块 ...

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结 论， 认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡 ，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 早盘WTI 原油主力期货一度涨超6%。 摩根大通预测，若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，油价可能飙升至120— 130美元区间。 （→ 美国打击伊朗核设施，卫星图曝光！原油大涨，黄金高开 ） 申万宏源认为，短期A股风险偏好回落，自上而下的叙事有所弱化，短期有休整需要，但跌不 深是一致预期，对应短期防御类资产有绝对收益。 国泰海通证券表示，全球地缘政治格局加速演变，外贸有望打开军工行业新的增长极，推荐 产品或业务与出口密切相关企业。分析认为，在大国博弈加剧的背景下，加大国防投入是当 今时代的必选项，内需和外贸有望驱动军工行业高景气度，保持发展趋势长期向好。 信达证券认为，市场在6—7月可能还会有震荡回撤，不过幅度可控。三季度后期或四季度， 盈利、政策和居民资金三个因素中，只要有一个往乐观方向转变，市场有望回归牛市状态。 现货黄金失守3 3 6 0美元/盎司 6月23日，A股指数低开，三大股指一度飘红。截至10:40，约3500股上涨。 板块上，油气、航运、军工涨幅居前 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Chinese stock market, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with emphasis on technology and emerging industries [1][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **De-dollarization Trend**: Global funds are shifting away from the US dollar, leading to increased investment in Chinese markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][4] - **Policy Reforms**: Since September 2024, China's policy reforms and collaboration with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have accelerated capital market reforms, particularly benefiting technology and emerging industries [1][4] - **Investment Opportunities**: PCB (Printed Circuit Board) and overseas computing power are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on "leading, localization, and globalization" as future development directions [1][5] - **Economic Challenges and Opportunities**: Current economic challenges include macroeconomic pressures and poor trade data, but long-term opportunities exist in new consumption and technology sectors [2] - **Profitability Concentration**: The trend of leading companies gaining market share is evident, especially in industries like machinery, public utilities, and transportation, where capacity utilization is high [3][17] - **Domestic and Foreign Capital**: Both foreign and domestic capital are crucial for driving equity asset growth, with foreign capital holdings exceeding 3 trillion yuan and domestic capital increasingly influencing pricing in Hong Kong stocks [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Globalization Impact**: Young leaders (born in the 80s and 90s) are more inclined to implement globalization strategies, leading to sustained growth in overseas revenues for their companies [3][30][31] - **Sector-Specific Trends**: Significant progress in domestic substitution rates in sectors like carbon fiber, special gases, and industrial robots, indicating a steady advancement in localization efforts [8][23] - **Emerging Market Influence**: Emerging markets are becoming significant drivers of Chinese exports, with countries like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia increasing their reliance on Chinese imports [26] - **ETF Influence**: ETFs have become a major source of incremental funds in the A-share market, with significant purchases observed since September 2024 [15][16] - **Traditional vs. New Materials**: Traditional industries and new material sectors are both showing strong potential for overseas expansion, with specific companies highlighted for their performance [28][29] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, focusing on the Chinese stock market's dynamics, investment opportunities, and the impact of globalization and domestic policies.

Group 1 - The A-share military industry sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant gains in various companies [1] - Great Wall Military Industry has reached its daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Guankong Technology has risen over 10%, showcasing robust performance in the sector [1] Group 2 - Aerospace Development has increased by more than 8%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Aerospace Changfeng and Leike Defense are also seeing gains, contributing to the overall strength of the military sector [1]

误区一：稳定币的价值绝对稳定。 稳定币本质是锚定资产的信用延伸，其价值既存在技术性脱锚风险，又受到锚定资产波动影响，因此稳定币的价值并非绝对稳 定，而是相对稳定。 误区二：所有法币都可以大量发行稳定币。 并不是所有的货币都能大量发行稳定币，不同法币稳定币最终的发展取决于法定货币本身的接受度，获得最广泛信任的 法币稳定币会出现"赢家通吃"。 误区三：美元稳定币会弱化美元信用。 美元稳定币的快速发展并不会冲击美元体系，而会进一步强化美元地位，因为美元稳定币拓宽了美元的功能和使用范围。而 美元稳定币对于其他国家尤其是汇率波动大的经济体的法定货币反而冲击较大。 误区四：美元稳定币是美债的"救命稻草"。 美元稳定币市场仅能稍微缓解美国短债的压力，但短债市场最终还是由美联储来主导。美元稳定币更不能缓解美国长债 的压力，整体上来看，美元稳定币对美债市场影响较小。 误区五：美元稳定币会大幅增加美元货币的供给。 美元稳定币的出现，确实会使得美元的发行权限从美联储下放一部分给到发币公司。但美联储作为货币供给的主 要参与者，仍然能够对总量的美元流动性做调控。就像联系汇率制的经济体，尽管存在多家发钞银行，但货币监管机构仍然可以根据市 ...

当霍尔木兹海峡的紧张局势与美联储持续鹰派的政策立场形成共振，上周全球资本 市场经历了一场压力测试。令人瞩目的是，市场展现出超乎预期的韧性：亚洲主要 市场指数普遍上扬，其中韩国、印度和日本市场涨幅领先，分别上涨 4.4%、1.59% 和 1.50%。相较之下，中国市场本周表现略显逊色，主要指数出现调整，我们认 为，可能源于其自身运行节奏的影响：上证指数在未能有效突破 3400 点附近的关键 阻力区间后，技术上面临回踩需求，本周微跌 0.51%。同时，小盘股前期积累的上 涨动能也显露转弱迹象，中证 1000 指数下跌 1.74%，北证 50 指数下跌 2.55%，需 对该结构性风险保持警惕。 投资策略 | 定期报告 地缘波折，难阻中国科技突围 策略周报 20250622 研究结论 ⚫ 全球资本市场韧性超预期，但仍需防范风险 支撑全球市场韧性的核心逻辑在于：投资者倾向于相信中东地缘危机短期内不会失 控升级。伊朗的报复行动虽引发波动，但均未实质性突破"红线"，大国直接军事 介入的风险暂时预期保持中性。OPEC+充足的闲置产能、伊朗原油出口的暂时维持 以及全球能源转型的长期趋势，共同削弱了油价飙升的持续性预期。然而，这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, particularly in light of the current global geopolitical tensions, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in this sector [3][36]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of demand and the elimination of previous disruptions, with a long-term growth certainty supported by national defense modernization goals set for 2035 and 2050 [5][38]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of drone technology in modern warfare, emphasizing its cost-effectiveness and operational advantages [4][36]. - The low-altitude economy is identified as a burgeoning sector, with significant policy support and commercial opportunities emerging [4][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index fell by 2.01% last week, ranking 17th among 31 sectors, with a current PE(TTM) of 74.63 times [3][20]. - The sub-sectors show varying PE ratios, with aerospace equipment at 134.59 times and ground weaponry at 148.10 times [20]. Key Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong demand and product depth in the downstream manufacturing sector, such as Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft [5][40]. - Highlight new technology firms in the military sector, including Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Guangqi Technology [5][40]. - Emphasize underwater equipment companies like Hailanxin and Yaxing Anchor Chain [5][41]. - Recommend missile industry chain companies such as Feilihua and Guokexun [5][42]. - Suggest companies involved in military-grade titanium materials and electronic components, including Western Superconducting and Hongyuan Electronics [5][43][44]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are driving interest in military investments [3][36]. - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a significant growth area, with various local governments implementing supportive measures to foster development [31][35].

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].