美国在15种关键矿产（如稀土、镓、锗、电池级石墨等）上完全依赖中国进口。中国主导全球99%的重 稀土金属供应，且在精炼稀土的产能上占据90%以上的市场份额。美国唯一的稀土矿——位于加利福尼 亚的芒廷山口矿，其开采出来的矿石需要运输到中国进行加工，之后再回购成品。美国的稀土产业面临 的核心问题是：一方面缺乏独立开采能力，另一方面缺乏精炼技术，短期内难以摆脱对中国的依赖。 要想重建完整的稀土产业链（包括开采、加工和应用），预计需要至少2500亿美元的投入，同时还面临 三个主要障碍：美国的电力成本远高于中国，本土加工所需的能耗更大；美国的环保标准非常严格，许 多采矿项目容易因环保法规的限制而被搁置；此外，精炼技术目前被中国垄断，且专利壁垒较难突破。 美澳合作的局限性 2025年10月20日，特朗普与澳大利亚签署了一项价值85亿美元的关键矿产协议，声称"一年后稀土将多 到不知如何处理"。然而，这项合作存在明显的局限性：首先，澳大利亚的稀土产能在全球市场所占份 额非常小，与中国的差距巨大（中国在精炼稀土的产能占比超过90%），而且澳大利亚在稀土加工技术 上同样依赖中国；其次，专家指出，即使加速推进，澳大利亚在一年内也无 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements (REEs) for military applications, particularly for the U.S. Navy, which relies heavily on these materials for advanced weaponry and technology [1][5][10] - China holds a dominant position in the global rare earth market, controlling approximately 34% of the world's total reserves, which amounts to about 120 million tons [1][9] - The U.S. is currently facing challenges in its military production due to a lack of access to refined rare earth materials, which are essential for the manufacturing of advanced naval vessels and submarines [5][10] Group 1 - Rare earth elements are critical for military applications, with specific quantities required for U.S. naval vessels, such as 2.4 tons for an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and 4.2 tons for a Virginia-class submarine [1][10] - Historically, China did not prioritize rare earth mining and processing, leading to a situation where the U.S. benefited from low-cost exports for military manufacturing [1][3] - The current landscape has shifted, with China now controlling the entire supply chain from mining to refining, making it difficult for other countries to compete [3][7] Group 2 - The U.S. is attempting to negotiate for increased rare earth exports from China, but China has implemented strict controls on exports to protect its resources and industry [5][9] - Germany has successfully navigated China's export regulations by agreeing to oversight and data sharing, demonstrating a potential model for cooperation [5][9] - The strategic management of rare earth exports by China serves as a significant leverage point in international relations, compelling countries to maintain cooperative ties with China for access to these critical materials [9][11] Group 3 - The U.S. military's reliance on rare earth elements exposes vulnerabilities in its supply chain, particularly as demand for advanced military equipment increases [7][10] - China's control over rare earth processing technology creates a barrier for other nations, as they cannot simply source raw materials without the capability to refine them [7][10] - The shift from passive resource exportation to active control over rare earth elements has transformed China's position into a powerful negotiating tool on the global stage [11]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China are highlighted by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which is seen as a reaction to China's recent export controls on rare earth materials, crucial for U.S. military and technology sectors [3][5]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Trump's 100% tariff threat is a response to China's export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and superhard materials, which are essential for military applications and advanced technology [3][5]. - China has implemented strict regulations requiring foreign companies to obtain permission for producing rare earth products using Chinese technology or materials, particularly for military use and advanced chip production [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth supplies, with 80% of its needs met by Chinese sources, which poses a significant risk to U.S. military production capabilities, including the F-35 fighter jet [3][5]. - The U.S. faces deep economic concerns, including a growing national debt of $36 trillion, rising inflation, and a struggling manufacturing sector, which could be exacerbated by new tariffs [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - China's countermeasures are framed within legal and regulatory frameworks, contrasting with the unilateral actions taken by the U.S., indicating a strategic approach to the trade conflict [3][7]. - The ongoing trade battle is characterized as a high-stakes game where neither side may emerge as a clear winner, but the ability to navigate rules and maintain resilience will be crucial for long-term outcomes [7].

Core Points - The article discusses the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth elements, with a critical deadline approaching on July 8, which marks the end of a tariff suspension period [3][6] - The U.S. is particularly anxious due to its heavy reliance on China for rare earth supplies, with 80% of its needs being imported from China [7][9] - China's response, articulated by Wang Yi, emphasizes a cooperative yet principled approach, encapsulated in the phrase "和而不同" (harmony without uniformity), indicating a willingness to dialogue without yielding to threats [13][15][18] U.S. Concerns - The U.S. Department of Defense has issued a report indicating that the rare earth shortage warning index has reached its highest level in a decade, highlighting both economic and national security risks [10][11] - Major defense contractors have warned the Pentagon that delays in rare earth supplies could impact critical military projects [9] China's Strategy - China's approach to the U.S. ultimatum involves a structured management of rare earth exports, asserting that all applications will be approved according to legal standards, thereby maintaining control over the export process [34][35] - This strategy aligns with WTO rules and allows China to manage exports flexibly while countering U.S. pressure [35][39] Global Reactions - The situation has caused global concern, with rare earth prices spiking by 12% within 24 hours and trading volumes at the London Metal Exchange reaching a three-year high [24] - European and Japanese markets are particularly sensitive to the potential disruption of rare earth supplies, with both regions expressing urgency for dialogue to resolve the conflict [26][28] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has warned that a significant disruption in global rare earth supplies could lead to losses exceeding $2.8 trillion in the high-tech sector [30] Implications for Future Relations - The article suggests that the ongoing tensions are not merely about rare earths but also about redefining global resource governance, with China positioning itself as a key player in establishing new rules [37][39] - The concept of "和而不同" reflects a desire for a cooperative framework that acknowledges differences while seeking common interests, indicating a potential shift in how global relations may evolve [39][41]

Group 1 - The temporary agreement between China and the US on tariffs in early 2025 was disrupted by President Trump's accusations against China for not adhering to the agreement, indicating a significant shift in US-China relations [2][3] - Trump's sudden change in tone is believed to be influenced by China's control over critical resources such as rare earth elements and US Treasury bonds, which are vital to the US economy and high-tech industries [2][3][6] - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, producing over 70% of the global supply and controlling 90% of processing capabilities, which poses a significant challenge for the US [5][10] Group 2 - China's reduction of its holdings in US Treasury bonds from $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $734.8 billion in 2025 has raised concerns in the US, leading to increased borrowing costs and economic pressure [3][6] - The US is attempting to diversify its rare earth supply by seeking partnerships with countries like Australia and Canada, but faces challenges in establishing a complete supply chain due to technological and processing limitations [6][10] - The ongoing reduction of US Treasury bond holdings by China and other countries could lead to increased financial strain on the US government, affecting inflation and economic stability [7][8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative reported that China agreed to lift export countermeasures imposed after April, including restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets, although no changes were made to rare earth export controls [1] - China holds 70% of global rare earth mining and 92% of refining capacity, making it a dominant player in the rare earth supply chain [4] - The U.S. has been slow to develop its rare earth sector due to environmental regulations and high costs, with companies like Neo Performance Materials stating that it takes at least 29 years to establish a rare earth mine in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - Rare earths are critical for high-tech and military industries, used in advanced equipment such as F-35 fighter jets and renewable energy technologies [4] - Recent reports suggest that China issued four rare earth export licenses, the first since imposing restrictions on certain rare earths, which may be a strategic move ahead of negotiations [6] - The U.S. military and energy sectors are heavily reliant on rare earths, and China's control over pricing and supply has led to significant price increases, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising over 200% [6][8] Group 3 - The U.S. has attempted to reduce reliance on Chinese rare earths through various measures, but lacks the necessary separation and purification technology, making it difficult to rebuild the supply chain [6][8] - Analysts indicate that rebuilding a complete rare earth supply chain outside of China could take 10 to 15 years, during which time U.S. industrial security may be compromised [8]

Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict between the U.S. and China has escalated, with China leveraging its dominance in rare earth elements to target critical U.S. military capabilities, revealing a deeper struggle for global technological supremacy [1][3][8] Group 1: Impact on U.S. Military - China's export restrictions on seven key rare earth elements directly threaten U.S. military technology development, particularly affecting the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet and electronic warfare systems [3][6] - The U.S. currently relies on China for 90% of its rare earth supply, with domestic production only accounting for 15% of global output, highlighting a significant vulnerability in the U.S. defense supply chain [3][6] - The urgency in Washington's response, including invoking the Defense Production Act and seeking resources in Greenland and Ukraine, underscores the strategic shortfalls in U.S. military supply chains [3][6] Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - China's export controls are not limited to the U.S. but apply globally, complicating the supply chain for all nations and creating a "suspicion chain" regarding rare earth procurement [6][8] - The ambiguity in China's strategy allows it to maintain a moral high ground while inducing anxiety in U.S. supply chains, as defense contractors cannot easily identify military-grade rare earths [6][8] - The global interdependence on rare earths is illustrated by the irony that even if U.S. mines become operational, the processing still relies on Chinese technology, emphasizing the complexity of the global supply chain [8] Group 3: Future Implications - The ongoing rare earth conflict is fundamentally a battle for future industrial dominance, as advancements in military technology increasingly depend on these materials [8] - The competition is shifting from traditional military assets to control over critical materials, with the potential to redefine modern warfare [8] - The U.S. faces a daunting challenge in countering China's three-decade lead in rare earth production and processing, indicating a significant gap in industrial capabilities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on the U.S. economy, highlighting criticism from former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who argues that these policies are detrimental to American interests and ultimately harm U.S. businesses and consumers [1][6][20]. Economic Impact - Since the implementation of tariffs, U.S. economic growth has slowed, with a reported contraction of 0.3% in the first quarter of the year, marking the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [2][5]. - The tariffs have led to a surge in imports as companies stockpile goods, resulting in a record trade deficit of $162 billion in March, the highest since the 1990s [3][5]. - This "preemptive stocking" has temporarily boosted inventory investment but has drained future demand, leading to reduced new orders and consumer purchasing power [3][5]. Trade Relations - The retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU and Japan have adversely affected U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, which saw a decline in export volumes [5][6]. - Yellen emphasizes that the ongoing tariff war will only exacerbate the economic challenges faced by the U.S., as multiple vulnerabilities are tied to reliance on China [6][20]. Key Vulnerabilities - The U.S. is heavily dependent on China for rare earth elements, with China controlling 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of refining, which are critical for various industries including technology and defense [8][16]. - The tariffs have disrupted supply chains, with U.S. manufacturers facing increased costs and quality issues due to reliance on Chinese components [11][13]. - The high demand for Chinese products means that tariffs ultimately burden U.S. companies, as they are forced to absorb the additional costs [14][16]. Recommendations - Yellen advocates for a cessation of the tariff policies and a restoration of trade relations with China, arguing that collaboration in future industries like clean energy and artificial intelligence is essential for U.S. economic growth [18][20]. - The article suggests that continuing the current approach could isolate the U.S. internationally, as allies may shift their alliances towards China [19][20].